Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Dome]

3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

 

Fauci and Birx think this will be seasonal

Unwanted fun fact of the day: I talked to a guy who told me he took a seminar Fauci spoke at back in the 80s, maybe even earlier 

said Fauci was a gentle spirit who treated every question like it was the most thought provoking important question he’s ever heard. He has that look about him too, probably a real cool guy.

[VonKarman]

8 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Because other viruses like COVID-19 are seasonal and the hotspots are all in temperate winter climates 

Fauci and Birx think this will be seasonal

Well, the most similar viruses were SARS and MERS. SARS was contained in 4 months and MERS is still going on after 8 years in the Arabian Peninsula.

[CBears019]

22 minutes ago, Dome said:

Unwanted fun fact of the day: I talked to a guy who told me he took a seminar Fauci spoke at back in the 80s, maybe even earlier 

said Fauci was a gentle spirit who treated every question like it was the most thought provoking important question he’s ever heard. He has that look about him too, probably a real cool guy.

I want Fauci to explain every complex issue to me.  Kind of like Bill Nye, but for adults.

[mission27]

15 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

Well, the most similar viruses were SARS and MERS. SARS was contained in 4 months and MERS is still going on after 8 years in the Arabian Peninsula.

MERS appears to exhibit seasonality: 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29949167

SARS is more of an open question because as you point it was brought under control very quickly with a relatively small # of cases, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't have exhibited seasonality if it had become endemic

For both the CFR was / is so high and they are less contagious so we have never seen rampant community spread the way we do with typical seasonal illnesses like the flu and common cold, which makes seasonality less of a factor 

However, there are other coronaviruses that are milder and causes colds and that do have significant community spread, and they show clear seasonality 

[WizeGuy]

48 minutes ago, mission27 said:

MERS appears to exhibit seasonality: 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29949167

SARS is more of an open question because as you point it was brought under control very quickly with a relatively small # of cases, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't have exhibited seasonality if it had become endemic

For both the CFR was / is so high and they are less contagious so we have never seen rampant community spread the way we do with typical seasonal illnesses like the flu and common cold, which makes seasonality less of a factor 

However, there are other coronaviruses that are milder and causes colds and that do have significant community spread, and they show clear seasonality 

Agreed. This + the fact we likely gain immunity for a couple of years if infected makes me believe we may start to let people back into society in May or June. Those who have tested positive can go back to work, which will be a lot of people. The virus should slowly die off for the season with very few bodies to host+ the seasonal change negatively impacting it's ability to spread quickly. 

Of course every state is going to be hit differently, so some states will be easing their lock-downs while other states will still be in the peak. I live in NY, so I'm assuming we'll start easing our quarantining efforts towards the end of May-early June. We absolutely can not start too early, tho. 

Italy is going to provide us a lot of information in regards to this virus. Their numbers are more reliable than China, so it'll be interesting/informative to see what happens to Italy's numbers once they start to ease their lock-downs. If they start to spike again, then we're just going to have to go through these cycles until a vaccine is available.

I'm by no means an expert, so take my opinion with a grain of salt. I will say it's been very interesting researching all of this. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by WizeGuy

[TOUCAN]

Real question.

I had a heart condition last year called Myocarditis that resulted in some heart failure issues and had me hospitalized for over a week. I am fairly healthy but when I get sick it can be worse than it used to be. Do you guys think I should be asking about being quarantined by my doctor? We just had a case of exposure very close to my home.

[Malfatron]

5 minutes ago, JoshstraDaymus said:

Real question.

I had a heart condition last year called Myocarditis that resulted in some heart failure issues and had me hospitalized for over a week. I am fairly healthy but when I get sick it can be worse than it used to be. Do you guys think I should be asking about being quarantined by my doctor? We just had a case of exposure very close to my home.

I think its worth bringing up.

Does your clinic do telehealth?

you wouldnt even have to come in

[TOUCAN]

2 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

I think its worth bringing up.

Does your clinic do telehealth?

you wouldnt even have to come in

Our insurance allows the use of teledoctors, I can go through either Amwell or Wellspan and I don't think I would have an issue one way or the other.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

21 minutes ago, JoshstraDaymus said:

Real question.

I had a heart condition last year called Myocarditis that resulted in some heart failure issues and had me hospitalized for over a week. I am fairly healthy but when I get sick it can be worse than it used to be. Do you guys think I should be asking about being quarantined by my doctor? We just had a case of exposure very close to my home.

Is the HF chronic?  Is your EF back to normal?

[acowboys62]

21 hours ago, beekay414 said:

Good. I'm clear of it now. Back to work tomorrow. 

Glad you are feeling better. 

[acowboys62]

19 hours ago, animaltested said:

A little surreal anecdote to share: 

Background, my apartment is about two blocks east of Century Link Field (Seahawks Stadium). They have been discussing turning into a field hospital. My "shelter in place" jog takes my down past and around the stadium. Today, the hotel on the north end of the stadium had pure white school buses parked in front of it. Odd, but whatever. Then I see groups of three fatigued up boots wandering around. There was about 15-20 soldiers walking the perimeter of the stadium. 

Anyway, wasn't "movie"esque (no flood lights, and pop up tents yet), but very disaster movie-ish.

National Guard or Army Corp of Engineers I assume prepping the area? Saw similar sites by me when they were setting up the testing site in central NJ, lot of Humvees.  

[mission27]

Cuomo now saying 'apex' will be the end of April in New York 

I think that's probably a realistic date for most active number of cases, which is a little different from the apex of new infections or deaths, which I still think is likely to come in the next two weeks as Cuomo has said and White House is also saying 

New York should be a couple weeks behind Italy, and Italy will likely hit their peak # of active cases within the next week or two.  I think the 6,557 new cases reported on March 21st may very well end up being the highest daily total although you never know for sure because there is noise and they may retroactively go back and add a bunch of cases (like China did when things started to slow down)

[TOUCAN]

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Is the HF chronic?  Is your EF back to normal?

EF is normal to my knowledge, I have been without their 'life vest' for some time now.

[TOUCAN]

2 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Cuomo now saying 'apex' will be the end of April in New York 

I think that's probably a realistic date for most active number of cases, which is a little different from the apex of new infections or deaths, which I still think is likely to come in the next two weeks as Cuomo has said and White House is also saying 

New York should be a couple weeks behind Italy, and Italy will likely hit their peak # of active cases within the next week or two.  I think the 6,557 new cases reported on March 21st may very well end up being the highest daily total although you never know for sure because there is noise and they may retroactively go back and add a bunch of cases (like China did when things started to slow down)

I am being optimistic on this, I know it's hard because the media makes it hard to be optimistic about it, but I can see all around me people are taking the hint and staying where they should.

[mission27]

Its a little hard because China is the only country that has had a massive outbreak and then brought it under control and their data is funky because of the big restatement around February 12th.

But if we look at China, their true peak in new cases appears to have been February 4th.  We hit peak active cases on February 16th (so 12 days later).  

Based on that timeline, Italy would peak in active cases in the next few days.  And if you look at the shape of the active cases graph, that would not be surprising.  

Lets say apex for Italy is conservatively going to be next Monday, 4/6.  I think that likely puts apex in New York somewhere in the third or fourth week of April.