vikesfan89 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Touching on herd immunity, we can't believe the number of infections is the real number. I may be stupid w/ this stuff but there's absolutely no way that is true. There are countless people who are asymptomatic and the only reason they knew they had it was due to forced testing for whatever reason. I'd be lead to believe the number of people who have actually contracted the virus is substantially higher than total number indicates. I believe studies came out that suggested over 20k people had been infected before the first case in the US even surfaced. But. again, I'm an idiot w/ this **** so my opinion is just that. Pretty sure there was a study recently that was thinking 10% of the population which is well more than double the confirmed cases Edited October 7, 2020 by vikesfan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: The percentage of the population required for herd immunity is based on the R0, and is nominally somewhere around 2/3rds of the population based on the best estimates for R0 we have now. There are obviously fairly larger error bars on that, at least in part because our behavior can influence the R0, but that is not an unreasonable target at all when you have multiple vaccine candidates showing immune system responses in > 90% of subjects on trial. Unless there are manufacturing disasters or the vaccine candidates all fail, we really should be herd immune by the end of the year 2021. Whether that's more March or September depends on the logistics of getting the entire world vaccinated, which you noted are not a simple thing. I think you are underestimating the human element a little bit here. In an ideal world where everyone is willing to get vaccinated, I would say your projection might be obtainable if unlikely (IMO). However, I think disproportionally around the country we will see a lot of people not getting it. We also have to consider healthcare, are these free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 In b4 someone suggests 100% reopening to get to herd immunity ASAP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Can I just say how funny this thread is? Like 12 of you are patting each other on the back agreeing with everybody. Nobody else comes in here. You're like the crowd of the University of Louisiana football program in the beginning of the movie before Bobby Boucher makes his first start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 31 minutes ago, MWil23 said: In b4 someone suggests 100% reopening to get to herd immunity ASAP. Only 95% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Deadpulse said: I think you are underestimating the human element a little bit here. In an ideal world where everyone is willing to get vaccinated, I would say your projection might be obtainable if unlikely (IMO). However, I think disproportionally around the country we will see a lot of people not getting it. We also have to consider healthcare, are these free? Any competent government would negotiate a bulk purchase with the patent holder, then distribute it to its citizens for free. The public health dollars saved are in the trillions, you need public infrastructure to mass vaccinate people anyway so the government has to get involved eventually, and it removes every excuse a sane person would have to not get it. Regarding how many people would get it, the early polling results aren't good but I'm guessing those numbers change a lot when a vaccine is actually here. More than anything, everyone just wants to get their normal lives back. Putting that in a pill or a shot and offering it to people for free is going to be too tempting for even people on the fence about it to pass up IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Any competent government would negotiate a bulk purchase with the patent holder, then distribute it to its citizens for free. The public health dollars saved are in the trillions, you need public infrastructure to mass vaccinate people anyway so the government has to get involved eventually, and it removes every excuse a sane person would have to not get it. Regarding how many people would get it, the early polling results aren't good but I'm guessing those numbers change a lot when a vaccine is actually here. More than anything, everyone just wants to get their normal lives back. Putting that in a pill or a shot and offering it to people for free is going to be too tempting for even people on the fence about it to pass up IMO. I think I need to concede the initial pessimism diagnosis because man do I not see competence in the government or give people, especially those who strong headedly say NOTHING is wrong atm, the credit you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Any competent government stopped reading right there 🙂 This is where UNITAID comes in to help on a global basis. We can isolate our country for awhile, but at some point the airports/borders will open and its our best interest to make sure everybody has access to meds and vaccines around the globe. Taking an ethnocentric view of the world doesn't help during a pandemic UNITAID has done great work in malaria, HIV, TB and others and they'll be key partners here in distributing/treating people around the world in the most cost-effective manner possible https://unitaid.org/#en https://unitaid.org/how-we-work/donors/#en 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 3 hours ago, vikesfan89 said: Pretty sure there was a study recently that was thinking 10% of the population which is well more than double the confirmed cases Wouldn't be surprised if it's more. Back in the day, I thought symptoms were always coughing, fever, and fatigue. When I "think" I had it, I only had one of those symptoms and many I've talked to only lost senses and had no other symptoms. Think about people who didn't get tested as a result if naivety. I dunno.... No one of knowing as it's all speculation but it's definitely a lot more than what's been recorded. I know a lot of people who didn't even get tested and just "knew" they had it. I had a buddy who only got an antibody test. Brings up a question: he came back positive for antibodies but never got tested for covid. Since he has antibodies, does he get marked as positive? I'm just rambling during Big Brother commercials. Don't mind me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 12 hours ago, Outpost31 said: Can I just say how funny this thread is? Like 12 of you are patting each other on the back agreeing with everybody. Nobody else comes in here. You're like the crowd of the University of Louisiana football program in the beginning of the movie before Bobby Boucher makes his first start. If you want to post some conspiracy theory just do it man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, MookieMonstah said: If you want to post some conspiracy theory just do it man It’s not about conspiracy theories. I believe the virus is serious, I believe people need to wear masks yada yada yada. It’s just funny to me because people in here are saying things as if they’re facing resistance when there’s literally nobody in here facing any resistance because 12 people have cheap shotted everyone out of here. It’s just funny to me. 12 of you act like you’re the only ones with any brains and you act like you’ve got the whole forum against you when it’s literally the 12 of you taking thinly veiled shots at nobody and you’re all just fishing for likes, posting zingers that really don’t zing anybody at all who posts in here. The way the dozen people post in here you’d think there were 30 people posting Masks are violation of liberty, it’s a hoax, blah blah blah when literally nobody is doing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: It’s not about conspiracy theories. I believe the virus is serious, I believe people need to wear masks yada yada yada. It’s just funny to me because people in here are saying things as if they’re facing resistance when there’s literally nobody in here facing any resistance because 12 people have cheap shotted everyone out of here. It’s just funny to me. 12 of you act like you’re the only ones with any brains and you act like you’ve got the whole forum against you when it’s literally the 12 of you taking thinly veiled shots at nobody and you’re all just fishing for likes, posting zingers that really don’t zing anybody at all who posts in here. The way the dozen people post in here you’d think there were 30 people posting Masks are violation of liberty, it’s a hoax, blah blah blah when literally nobody is doing that. You seem slightly elevated my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Regeneron trying to get emergency authorization as well w/ Lilly. This is great news! Keep em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 50 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: It’s not about conspiracy theories. I believe the virus is serious, I believe people need to wear masks yada yada yada. It’s just funny to me because people in here are saying things as if they’re facing resistance when there’s literally nobody in here facing any resistance because 12 people have cheap shotted everyone out of here. It’s just funny to me. 12 of you act like you’re the only ones with any brains and you act like you’ve got the whole forum against you when it’s literally the 12 of you taking thinly veiled shots at nobody and you’re all just fishing for likes, posting zingers that really don’t zing anybody at all who posts in here. The way the dozen people post in here you’d think there were 30 people posting Masks are violation of liberty, it’s a hoax, blah blah blah when literally nobody is doing that. The frustration isn’t necessarily with people in here, even the people with the more conservative views seem fairly reasonable (wear masks, take things seriously, etc), but rather with other people, be it public figures, people in our communities, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Regeneron trying to get emergency authorization as well w/ Lilly. This is great news! Keep em coming! Not to be too big of a pessimist, but companies are doing this just as much (read: completely) for the potential profits as opposed to our collective wellbeing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts