1.26 - Jordan Love [QB; Utah State] - QB1

[MrBobGray]

The biggest issue at the moment is definitely the speed of the game.  He's not processing what he's seeing in any meaningful way, which isn't surprising for a guy with so few reps under his belt.  A lot of his accuracy issues still seem to stem from an inability to be sure of where he wants to place the ball; even when he throws with anticipation it's often rushed or he's under pressure.  There's no good way to grade him on such a small sample set.  He has the moments where you see how the talent could come together, and moments where you see real structural flaws that concern you long term.  He's not a player at this moment where you're still considering moving on from Rodgers for him.  Doesn't mean he won't be at some point on his rookie contract, the raw talent is there, just that he's far enough away I'd consider that a non-starter.

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

This is a pretty good stat cluster actually. Just can't put Jordan up there yet obviously. I'd imagine with Deguara's play that number would be ugly. 

I know all of this already.

[Mr Bad Example]

15 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

This is a pretty good stat cluster actually. Just can't put Jordan up there yet obviously. I'd imagine with Deguara's play that number would be ugly. 

Obviously the other players did not have big plays that may have skewed their numbers up.  

 

It's somewhat of a "stat without context" but Love is riiiiight on the Mendoza line. I'd also take issue with calling Wentz a "considerable bust" - he was in MVP conversations the year the Eagles went to the SB, and he's still a useful player. 

[AlexGreen#20]

14 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

The biggest issue at the moment is definitely the speed of the game.  He's not processing what he's seeing in any meaningful way, which isn't surprising for a guy with so few reps under his belt.  A lot of his accuracy issues still seem to stem from an inability to be sure of where he wants to place the ball; even when he throws with anticipation it's often rushed or he's under pressure.  There's no good way to grade him on such a small sample set.  He has the moments where you see how the talent could come together, and moments where you see real structural flaws that concern you long term.  He's not a player at this moment where you're still considering moving on from Rodgers for him.  Doesn't mean he won't be at some point on his rookie contract, the raw talent is there, just that he's far enough away I'd consider that a non-starter.

The issue I've got with this at the moment is the differences in protection that both guys are getting. 

If Love is going to be under pressure for 27% of his snaps and Rodgers is going to be under pressure for 4%, I can't realistically compare their footwork. 

[{Family Ghost}]

20 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

99/100 times you don't fix inaccurate.  The exception is Allen

You need transcendent other skills to overcome inaccuracy - like Lamar Jackson or Mike Vick.

I don't think Love is AS inaccurate as Allen appeared to be in his rookie year though.

 

For Love, you need to fix his footwork, and he needs to be more willing to run the ball more until he settles in as a passer.

Call Jordan Palmer .. that's the guy that Josh Allen gives a lot of credit for his development.  I think Jordan Love has worked with him some in the past, but mainly uses Steve Calhoun.

[craig]

On 1/10/2022 at 2:15 PM, Packerraymond said:

This is a pretty good stat cluster actually. Just can't put Jordan up there yet obviously. I'd imagine with Deguara's play that number would be ugly. 

Agree, Y/A is really sensitive when it's a super small sample size.  With 62 attempts, the difference between having 2, 1, or 0 big plays makes a big difference.  Every 60-yard play adds a full yard onto the ypa.  

Over a larger sample size, bad drops or long receiver YAC runs like Deguara's tends to average out more than for small-sample.  

[craig]

On 1/11/2022 at 6:21 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

The issue I've got with this at the moment is the differences in protection that both guys are getting. 

If Love is going to be under pressure for 27% of his snaps and Rodgers is going to be under pressure for 4%, I can't realistically compare their footwork. 

Somebody linked a Rodgers video from his 2nd year versus Patriots.  He was getting pressured like crazy there too.  Hard to throw well when the protection is bad/inconsistent.  

So, dumb questions.  I didn't see the game, because I live in Minnesota so Fox was showing Vikings/Bears.  Only listened to it on radio.  

1. Did love attempt many downfield throws prior to the 2-minute drill when he had to?  On radio I got the impression that most of the completions were on throws that were little short ones, wide-receiver screen, the 1-yard throw to Deguara that went for 62.  That's a lot of what Rodgers does too, not a lot of throws that are caught more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  But I guess I'm wondering if Love attempted many that were more than 5 yards beyond the line?  And if so, how did they look in terms of accuracy and velocity?  I'm generally getting the impression that the accuracy wasn't too hot?
2. I have no issue with the two INT's.  Rodgers blundered the first, and when down with <40 seconds and >60 yards to go, you've gotta take your chances downfield.  
3. In the couple of highlight video ones I've seen, it looks like he has a VERY QUICK release.  Yes? 
4. In the couple of highlight videos, it looks like he has a VERY LOW release point, kinda side-arm.  Am I wrong on that?  Or was that only on some plays but not always?  To put the question differently, is his arm-slow consistently low?  Or is he just kinda inconsistent, given the off-platform stuff he was throwing?  

I admit being kinda surprised/disappointed at his rather low arm-slot.  He hasn't gotten much game time, obviously; but the Packers coaches have had him for two years.  Surprised they haven't modified that some....

 

[mikebpackfan]

You want us to honestly assess Love and not just knee-jerk?  That’s not the FF I know. 
 

There was not much downfield, it was almost all short stuff. He had one cool throw on the run where he floated it to Davis in the EZ but Davis couldn’t hang on although he had both hands on it.  That was probably 15-20 yds or so. 
 

One play that flashed that no one is talking about was an out to Patrick Taylor for a critical first down near the goal line. He had a defender in his face and delivered a near perfect ball to the sideline which enabled Taylor to pick up the 1st down. Taylor almost screwed it up by bobbling it but it was not reviewed.  It was only a 2 yard pass on the stat sheet, but it was a very nice play from Love at a critical time. 
 

The biggest disappointment outside the INTs was the deep ball to EQ just before one of the picks. If he had just put it to the outside he would have given EQ a great shot at it but instead left it in the middle of the field. That could have been his signature play of the day, but turned in to just another <sigh>.  
 

[skibrett15]

On 1/11/2022 at 7:21 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

The issue I've got with this at the moment is the differences in protection that both guys are getting. 

If Love is going to be under pressure for 27% of his snaps and Rodgers is going to be under pressure for 4%, I can't realistically compare their footwork. 

how much is Rodgers' low pressure rate a byproduct of him knowing the system, the checks, the selection bias of the blitzes he'll face, and his knowledge of the scheme defense he's facing compared to actual pass protection breakdowns being lower?

 

Love is gonna see blitzes until he consistently beats them.  That's the entire defensive coordinator playbook against ANY new QB.

[skibrett15]

On 1/10/2022 at 2:26 PM, Outpost31 said:

Doesn't count, but I posted this thought in the NFL General thread. Doesn't count because he wasn't the starter. He did get some time though. Seems like we can't rule him out yet:

He's not wrong though.

I say it every year, and it's got at least a 90% accuracy rate, but the single best indicator for future success at the QB position is average yards per attempt in their rookie year.

Since the league changed all the rules on offense and protected quarterbacks and helped receivers, there's zero excuse to not throw for over 6.2-ish yards per attempt. I don't care if you've got the worst coach and offense in the world, if you're completing less than 6.2 yards per attempt, you're not gonna make it in this league.

This has been true since roughly 2010. Since 2010, you can tell after the first year if a QB is going to be worth keeping after their first year as a starter. It's just too hard to not have some success at QB if you're going to have any success.

Quarterbacks yards per attempt in their first full year as a starter:
Patrick Mahomes - 8.8 yards per attempt.
Deshaun Watson - 8.3 yards per attempt.
Dak Prescott - 8.0 yards per attempt.
Baker Mayfield 7.7 yards per attempt.
Jameis Winston - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Marcus Mariota - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Mac Jones - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Teddy Bridgewater - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Kyler Murray - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Justin Fields - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Sam Darnold - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Joe Burrow - 6.7 yards per attempt.
Jordan Love - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Daniel Jones - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Mitchell Trubisky - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Josh Allen - 6.5 yards per attempt.
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Johnny Manziel - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Carson Wentz - 6.2 yards per attempt.
Zach Wilson - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Blake Bortles - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Trevor Lawrence - 6.0 yards per attempt.
Dwayne Haskings - 5.9 yards per attempt.
Drew Lock - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Josh Rosen - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Jared Goff - 5.3 yards per attempt.

As you can plainly see, if you're not completing 6.5 yards per attempt in your rookie year minimum, you're likely not going to have much in store for you in your NFL career.

This list also has plenty of examples of quarterbacks in bad situations in their first years coming back and having good NFL careers, but even those ones were above or at 6.5 yards per attempt (Allen, Burrow).

It's obviously not perfect and you can't tell HOW good a QB is going to be in their career, but it gives you a pretty good hint. A darn good hint. Mahomes at 8.8, Prescott at 8.0, Watson...

And there isn't a single QB who threw for less than 6.5 yards per attempt in their rookie year who went on to have a great or even good career. Johnny, Carson, Blake, Dwayne, Drew, Josh, Jared... They're all considered considerable busts.

So you look at Lawrence sitting between Bortles and Haskins and it doesn't inspire much confidence.

Just looks like a pretty random high-variance statistical pile of young QBs to me!

Jameis winston and mariota are at the top, and Lawrence/Wentz are at the bottom.

 

This isn't the point you're making, and say what you want about Wentz, but Wentz is like the 8th-10th best guy on the list and he's near the bottom.  Allen is the 2nd or 3rd best guy, and he's smack dab in the middle.  Almost like the "line" was drawn around him rather than what the data said.  Teddy Bridgewater is near the top.

[packfanfb]

On 1/11/2022 at 7:21 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

The issue I've got with this at the moment is the differences in protection that both guys are getting. 

If Love is going to be under pressure for 27% of his snaps and Rodgers is going to be under pressure for 4%, I can't realistically compare their footwork. 

Problem is that it's not just about protection, but defensive scheme as well. Take the KC game. You think the Chiefs bring as much pressure on 12 as they did all night on 10? I know Spags likes to bring it, but he knows 12 burns him a lot more than 10 could under the same circumstances. It's not like in either game (KC or Det) the Packers were playing with preseason guys on the OL. They had starting OLs in there other than Bakh in Detroit. Love simply isn't going to get the same defensive looks as 12 in terms of pressure packages and fronts until he can start beating those looks. If anything this further emphasizes that MLF can't call the same game for 10 that he would for 12. Just isn't going to turn out well especially given his current experience level. That was part of the problem vs. KC, MLF didn't change much. 

[MacReady]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

Just looks like a pretty random high-variance statistical pile of young QBs to me!

Jameis winston and mariota are at the top, and Lawrence/Wentz are at the bottom.

 

This isn't the point you're making, and say what you want about Wentz, but Wentz is like the 8th-10th best guy on the list and he's near the bottom.  Allen is the 2nd or 3rd best guy, and he's smack dab in the middle.  Almost like the "line" was drawn around him rather than what the data said.  Teddy Bridgewater is near the top.

All of those quarterbacks that are high belong in the NFL.

All the ones below 6.5 don’t.

I made that distinction. If you’re not throwing 6.5 YPA as your first year as a starter, you’re not coming back.

Mariota, Winston, they could both do well in the right spot.

[craig]

Did Love run at all on Sunday, other than the 2-point conversion?  I know Love doesn't have the quickness of guys liks Fields or Huntley or Wilson or Hurts, etc..  But I think one way to beat blitz is often to run.  If lots of defenders are already sold out into the backfield, and a lot of coverage is single-coverage on receivers, there are often some yards if you can step through the first ring, and some drives can get extended that way.

[mikebpackfan]

He had one ~10 yd run for a first down.  He looked not that fast but nifty enough. 

[Leader]

3 minutes ago, mikebpackfan said:

He had one ~10 yd run for a first down.  He looked not that fast but nifty enough. 

Interesting. I just went thru the ESPN Play by Play and cant find where Love ran the ball anytime other than the 2pt conversion.

Regardless, I think (much like AR) he'll be one of those QB's that picks his spots and runs to avoid the rush - as opposed to a true running QB for whom running plays (or options) can be built into a play's design.