2021 Draft Thread

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Last years class I think was better than this years. I think Smith is the only guy that goes top 10 and I think Chase goes in the teens. So my trade value to go from 25 to 15 is accurate.

I'm not sure I'd agree.  I think it was deeper last year, but I like the top of this year's class a bit better.  The WRs went off the board opposite of my rankings.  I had Lamb, Jeudy, and then Ruggs.  I liked DeVonta Smith a ton last year, so him having this great year isn't suprising.

[Bobby816]

Just now, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure I'd agree.  I think it was deeper last year, but I like the top of this year's class a bit better.  The WRs went off the board opposite of my rankings.  I had Lamb, Jeudy, and then Ruggs.  I liked DeVonta Smith a ton last year, so him having this great year isn't suprising.

I love Smith as well. But I look at the draft order. And I can see Smith going at 6 or 7 to Philly or Detroit. But then you look at the teams after that, they don't need a WR for awhile. NYG maybe at 11 could take Chase. But I think they go in a different direction than WR. Next team that needs a WR is NE at 15. So that's my thinking as to why he can last that long. 

 

I've learned a few things when predicting where players go (especially WRs). If I would've said that Lamb would have been available at the 17th pick last year or even Jeudy at 15. People would have laughed at me. But it happened. I also think they might slip bc of that draft. The guys drafted after those top 3 guys generally speaking did better than them as rookies (Jefferson, Higgins Claypool)

[Forge]

14 hours ago, Bianconero said:

Interesting that he doesn't even have Sewell as his top rated OT

The funny thing is that he said that he has Slater as his top tackle, meanwhile Kiper doesn't even rate Slater as a tackle...he has him as a guard exclusive I'm pretty sure. Always interesting to see the dichotomy between evaluators. 

[KimuraGod]

1 hour ago, Bianconero said:

I would have had:

1. Trevor Lawrence, 2021

2. Joe Burrow, 2020

3. Justin Fields, 2021

4. Baker Mayfield, 2018

5. Zach Wilson, 2021

6. Kyler Murrray, 2019

7. Tua Taglovailoa, 2020

8. Josh Rosen, 2018

9. Sam Darnold, 2018

10. Josh Allen, 2018

11. Justin Herbert, 2020

12. Daniel Jones, 2019

13. Dwayne Haskins, 2019

 

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

This is stictly to how I viewed them as prospects. I'm willing to admit I was wrong on a few of these.

(Top 5 Tier)
Trevor Lawrence
Joe Burrow

(Top 10 Tier)
Zach Wilson
Justin Fields
Tua Tagavoilola
Josh Rosen
Sam Darnold

(Top 20 Tier)
Justin Herbert

(Late 1st Tier)

(Early Round 2 Tier)
Kyler Murray

(Mid Round 2 Tier)
Baker Mayfield
Dwayne Haskins

(Late Round 2 Tier)

(Round 3 Tier)
Josh Allen

 

Going off the assumption that both of you have Fields and Wilson in your top 5 it’s even more obvious we need to move for a qb and trade Sam. 
 

It’s not like it was Lawerence and then a huge drop off by all accounts. My worry was we’d force the move similar to the Bears and MT, Vikings and Ponder etc etc.

I haven’t see enough of Fields or Wilson but I’m working through film of them now and I do love what I see from both guys. If we do draft Fields then I’d love to see what Daboll would do with him. 

[KingOfNewYork]

3 hours ago, jetsfan4life51 said:

Fans don't have their jobs on the line or other people pushing them in certain directions (be it scouts, owners, whoever is in their ear).  It really is that simple but teams don't operate simply.  The best plan of action would be draft whichever QB you fall in love with at 2 and then do everything in your power to support that QB.  

It really isn't that simple, its way more complex. Its not an exact science because at the end of the day you still have 31 other teams trying to accomplish the same exact thing. 

[KingOfNewYork]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

The funny thing is that he said that he has Slater as his top tackle, meanwhile Kiper doesn't even rate Slater as a tackle...he has him as a guard exclusive I'm pretty sure. Always interesting to see the dichotomy between evaluators. 

Jeremiah has been way better than Kiper from what I recall especially as I spent more time reading their analysis of players. 

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Jeremiah has been way better than Kiper from what I recall especially as I spent more time reading their analysis of players. 

100% 

I feel like Kiper...while I respect what he did to that profession, what he started, etc....is almost more of a mascot for that parrticular job now more than anything. That's not to say that he's still not doing it, but he's much more tv personality. I make fun of him every year because if you listen to his podcast almost everyone is a second round pick unless they are a real project....especially closer to the draft. It's like he decided he really didn't want to be super duper critical of the kids any more. 

[KingOfNewYork]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

100% 

I feel like Kiper...while I respect what he did to that profession, what he started, etc....is almost more of a mascot for that parrticular job now more than anything. That's not to say that he's still not doing it, but he's much more tv personality. I make fun of him every year because if you listen to his podcast almost everyone is a second round pick unless they are a real project....especially closer to the draft. It's like he decided he really didn't want to be super duper critical of the kids any more. 

Yeah, it is funny hearing breakdown the 6th/7th round picks and he makes you feel like you drafted a stud and then the kid doesn't even make the 53 lol.

[jetsfan4life51]

46 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

It really isn't that simple, its way more complex. Its not an exact science because at the end of the day you still have 31 other teams trying to accomplish the same exact thing. 

As fans we can all say lets pay Thuney, Godwin/AR/JuJu(whoever), draft Fields, draft WR, draft RB and now we have solidified the OL, brought in a talented QB and he now has 4 talented WRs to work with and a potential workhorse RB.  I don't think GMs have the balls to ignore coaches/scouts/the other side of the ball and that is reasonable as well.  But I still think this is a simple plan to orchestrate and worth the gamble.

[KingOfNewYork]

13 minutes ago, jetsfan4life51 said:

As fans we can all say lets pay Thuney, Godwin/AR/JuJu(whoever), draft Fields, draft WR, draft RB and now we have solidified the OL, brought in a talented QB and he now has 4 talented WRs to work with and a potential workhorse RB.  I don't think GMs have the balls to ignore coaches/scouts/the other side of the ball and that is reasonable as well.  But I still think this is a simple plan to orchestrate and worth the gamble.

The simple answer is just drafting well. When you do that your team is competitive(win or lose) and when you have a good coaching staff then your team starts winning and then from there its just the luck of the draw.

We simply haven't drafted well and our coaching hasn't been able to compensate for that.

[Bobby816]

5 hours ago, jetsfan4life51 said:

As fans we can all say lets pay Thuney, Godwin/AR/JuJu(whoever), draft Fields, draft WR, draft RB and now we have solidified the OL, brought in a talented QB and he now has 4 talented WRs to work with and a potential workhorse RB.  I don't think GMs have the balls to ignore coaches/scouts/the other side of the ball and that is reasonable as well.  But I still think this is a simple plan to orchestrate and worth the gamble.

I got a chub just reading that. Fact is is that addressing the offense is vastly more important than the defense. Having a QB succeed is not even in comparison to that of let’s say an edge succeeding. 

[CWood21]

12 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

I love Smith as well. But I look at the draft order. And I can see Smith going at 6 or 7 to Philly or Detroit. But then you look at the teams after that, they don't need a WR for awhile. NYG maybe at 11 could take Chase. But I think they go in a different direction than WR. Next team that needs a WR is NE at 15. So that's my thinking as to why he can last that long. 

 

I've learned a few things when predicting where players go (especially WRs). If I would've said that Lamb would have been available at the 17th pick last year or even Jeudy at 15. People would have laughed at me. But it happened. I also think they might slip bc of that draft. The guys drafted after those top 3 guys generally speaking did better than them as rookies (Jefferson, Higgins Claypool)

I'm looking at last year's draft, and I see an anomaly.  We saw FOUR OTs go off the board in the first 13 picks.  2013 was the last time that 4 OTs went off the board in the first 13 picks.  And then you add that 3 QBs went off the board in the top 6 picks.  So of the first 13 picks, 7 of them were either QBs or OTs.  That's not a normal draft.

But let's look at the draft order.

1.) Jacksonville - Nah.
2.) NY Jets - Either trading Darnold and taking a QB or trading the pick IMO.
3.) Miami - Could take a WR here.
4.) Atlanta - QB, EDGE, or trade-down here.
5.) Cincinnati - Probably going to look to find a way to make sure Burrow succeeds, whether it be an OT or a WR.
6.) Eagles - Need is here.
7.) Lions - Need probably is here.

Just looking at that, you've got 3 teams who have a clear need at WR in the top 7.  Think at least 2 WRs go off the board in the top 12 picks.

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, xenajets said:

Going off the assumption that both of you have Fields and Wilson in your top 5 it’s even more obvious we need to move for a qb and trade Sam. 
 

It’s not like it was Lawerence and then a huge drop off by all accounts. My worry was we’d force the move similar to the Bears and MT, Vikings and Ponder etc etc.

I haven’t see enough of Fields or Wilson but I’m working through film of them now and I do love what I see from both guys. If we do draft Fields then I’d love to see what Daboll would do with him. 

I mean, I'm not sure we have a consensus QB2 tbh.  We've got a large contingent that has had Justin Fields as QB2 since last year.  And there's probably a large group that thinks Zach Wilson as QB2.

[KimuraGod]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, I'm not sure we have a consensus QB2 tbh.  We've got a large contingent that has had Justin Fields as QB2 since last year.  And there's probably a large group that thinks Zach Wilson as QB2.

Yeah very much dependant who you listen/read as to qb rankings after Lawrence. One consensus from most is that both Fields and Wilson are big time players and got the real chance to be a franchise qb. That’s why we must go qb at #2. 

[Bobby816]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm looking at last year's draft, and I see an anomaly.  We saw FOUR OTs go off the board in the first 13 picks.  2013 was the last time that 4 OTs went off the board in the first 13 picks.  And then you add that 3 QBs went off the board in the top 6 picks.  So of the first 13 picks, 7 of them were either QBs or OTs.  That's not a normal draft.

But let's look at the draft order.

1.) Jacksonville - Nah.
2.) NY Jets - Either trading Darnold and taking a QB or trading the pick IMO.
3.) Miami - Could take a WR here.
4.) Atlanta - QB, EDGE, or trade-down here.
5.) Cincinnati - Probably going to look to find a way to make sure Burrow succeeds, whether it be an OT or a WR.
6.) Eagles - Need is here.
7.) Lions - Need probably is here.

Just looking at that, you've got 3 teams who have a clear need at WR in the top 7.  Think at least 2 WRs go off the board in the top 12 picks.

It's all speculation so it's ok to have different opinions. And what each team does in FA and via trade, BIG TIME changes things as we both know.

But as of know I think MIA would draft Sewell at 3 or trade down to a QB needy team. Can't see them go WR when they have Parker and Williams (when healthy he's good).

I see no way at all CIN even thinks about WR with Boyd and Higgins there. I do see them moving on from Green. But that's still 2 very talented young WRs for Burrow.

PHI I agree needs a WR so they're 100% in the mix for Smith.

And DET I can see going WR as well. But the odds of them both choosing a WR, I think is very unlikely.

That's why I think Chase can get through the top 7 and after that it's a guess. NYG and SF could go WR before NE. But who knows. When it comes to the draft guys slip every year (i.e. Lamb last year). This year it very well could be a guy like Chase.

 

This whole topic started all hypothetical. I mean if the Jets grab a guy like Godwin in FA, I 100% don't see them trading up for a WR. But lets say we only resign Perriman for example. That WR need is HUGE for us. And then you almost have to try and make a move up for a WR to help our QB.