2021 Draft Thread

[CWood21]

Just now, jetfuel34 said:

100%. 

Rams got 3 first and a second round pick for pick 2 for RG3

Browns got pick 8, 77, 100 in 2016 along with 2017 first and 2018 second. 

This is just in the last few years. Teams are willing to give up a lot to move up 4, 5, or 6 spots. That is why I think you guys are crazy when you think we got ripped off by trading second round picks to move up fpr Sam Darnold. That was a good trade by draft standrads. 

Now look at the prospects. You have a guy in T law that is top 3 prospect of all time at the QB spot and he just got a beat down by the guy who is suppose to be pick 2 that would be the top pick in most drafts. Then you add in a bookend LT who will be great for 10 plus years. Yes pick two is worth a kings ransom and then some. 

But you're asking for a team who is currently slotted inside the top 5 (since you said you didn't want to move back must past 5) to give up those offers.  The Rams traded their FRP which was originally 8th overall, and the Redskins traded up from 6.  But teams have wised up since then.  Teams aren't giving up 3 FRPs like the Redskins did.  That's simply not going to happen for a while.  It set back the Redskins franchise for a decade.  Jared Goff was largely viewed as the top QB prospect in the draft, was a pre-draft deal, and was for the #1 overall pick.  Those are premiums.

There's also the major red flag that the 2012 draft was a 2 QB (or really a 1.5 QB class depending on where you fell on RG3).  Plus, that deal was struck a few weeks prior to the NFL draft.  As we've seen with that and the Darnold trade, there's an extra premium on completing a deal prior to the draft.  There's two other QBs in this year's class that are viewed very highly besides Trevor Lawrence.  I'm not sure there's a clear QB2 in this class.  Can you say that isn't the case with the 2012 QB class?  It was Andrew Luck as the top QB, and RG3 as QB2.  There was no other QB2.  Ryan Tannehill was QB3 by a pretty hefty margin, and he wasn't even close to RG3.  If you're a franchise, has any QB really solidified themselves as QB2?  I can't find any argument that says yes.

[jetfuel34]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

But you're asking for a team who is currently slotted inside the top 5 (since you said you didn't want to move back must past 5) to give up those offers.  The Rams traded their FRP which was originally 8th overall, and the Redskins traded up from 6.  But teams have wised up since then.  Teams aren't giving up 3 FRPs like the Redskins did.  That's simply not going to happen for a while.  It set back the Redskins franchise for a decade.  Jared Goff was largely viewed as the top QB prospect in the draft, was a pre-draft deal, and was for the #1 overall pick.  Those are premiums.

There's also the major red flag that the 2012 draft was a 2 QB (or really a 1.5 QB class depending on where you fell on RG3).  Plus, that deal was struck a few weeks prior to the NFL draft.  As we've seen with that and the Darnold trade, there's an extra premium on completing a deal prior to the draft.  There's two other QBs in this year's class that are viewed very highly besides Trevor Lawrence.  I'm not sure there's a clear QB2 in this class.  Can you say that isn't the case with the 2012 QB class?  It was Andrew Luck as the top QB, and RG3 as QB2.  There was no other QB2.  Ryan Tannehill was QB3 by a pretty hefty margin, and he wasn't even close to RG3.  If you're a franchise, has any QB really solidified themselves as QB2?  I can't find any argument that says yes.

I disagree. These trades where not that long ago. HC and GM know they have to win now or lose their job. They are willing to move future picks to save their job.

Also did you watch Field carve up Clemson D which is not that bad of a D on the big spot light. If Fields lights it up against Bama you know who is 1 and 2. This game January 11 is going to say a lot on how Fields draft stock looks. This years draft is diffrent from years past. You have a new shift in the NFL from pure pocket passer to a passer that can run too. These guys want them and not a Big Ben or Matt Ryan standing there.  

[CWood21]

8 minutes ago, jetfuel34 said:

I disagree. These trades where not that long ago. HC and GM know they have to win now or lose their job. They are willing to move future picks to save their job.

Also did you watch Field carve up Clemson D which is not that bad of a D on the big spot light. If Fields lights it up against Bama you know who is 1 and 2. This game January 11 is going to say a lot on how Fields draft stock looks. This years draft is diffrent from years past. You have a new shift in the NFL from pure pocket passer to a passer that can run too. These guys want them and not a Big Ben or Matt Ryan standing there.  

It's quite literally the EXACT same argument Lions' fans said last year.  They were adamant that some team was going to be willing to pay a fortunate to move up to 3 to select either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.  And much to their dismay, it never manifested itself.

And yes, I did watch Field carve up Clemson's D.  I also saw him look absolutely LOST against Northwestern.  And he didn't look much better against Indiana either.  That's my point.  Justin Fields isn't this superstar, shoe-in superstar.  He's closer to Tua and Herbert as prospects than he is Joe Burrow.  Hell, I'd argue Zach Wilson played better this year than Justin Fields did.  If you want to make an evaluation on game, go right ahead.  But Fields struggled against Northwestern.

[Bobby816]

I don’t see us trading back. I think we either just turn the page on Darnold and draft a QB at 2. Or we stick with Darnold and draft Sewell to have an elite young OT duo.

[KimuraGod]

Justin fields looked great and I can’t lie I’m quite optimistic moving forward after being abit Debbie downer after losing out on Lawerence. 
 

Fields having a big game and hopefully doing something similar against Alabama means either we go get him at #2 and build around him or some other team gives a bounty to get him. Either way it’s a win-win. 

[jetfuel34]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

It's quite literally the EXACT same argument Lions' fans said last year.  They were adamant that some team was going to be willing to pay a fortunate to move up to 3 to select either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.  And much to their dismay, it never manifested itself.

And yes, I did watch Field carve up Clemson's D.  I also saw him look absolutely LOST against Northwestern.  And he didn't look much better against Indiana either.  That's my point.  Justin Fields isn't this superstar, shoe-in superstar.  He's closer to Tua and Herbert as prospects than he is Joe Burrow.  Hell, I'd argue Zach Wilson played better this year than Justin Fields did.  If you want to make an evaluation on game, go right ahead.  But Fields struggled against Northwestern.

No one would have traded up for a broken Tua hip or a Herbert that was projected to go middle of the first round. 

Now your saying that Fields look lost against Northwestern which I agree but can't a QB have a bad day, I know T Law had a bad day against Clemson but they are not saying he is terrible. I think Fields taking that big hit early and ten coimg back to lead his team to a huge win means a lot to me. I do like Wilson but he his not Fields in my eyes. Fields should have put all that nonsense he can't throw a good deep ball to bed. He was throwing lasers out there and on the money against a very good Clemson D. If he does the samething again vs Bama I think people are REALLY going to think twice about who is number 1 and the value of 2 is huge. I was not a fan of Tua or Herbert coming out. Tua had tons of weapons plus a great OL. Herbert I did not like because he missed some very easy throws in college. I was wrong on Herbert but I think I'm right on Tua. I think Miami will be looking for a QB in 2-3 years. 

[Dr.O]

You don’t trade down and risk a team trading up for one of Fields or Wilson. Stand Pat at 2 and take your guy.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, jetfuel34 said:

No one would have traded up for a broken Tua hip or a Herbert that was projected to go middle of the first round. 

Now your saying that Fields look lost against Northwestern which I agree but can't a QB have a bad day, I know T Law had a bad day against Clemson but they are not saying he is terrible. I think Fields taking that big hit early and ten coimg back to lead his team to a huge win means a lot to me. I do like Wilson but he his not Fields in my eyes. Fields should have put all that nonsense he can't throw a good deep ball to bed. He was throwing lasers out there and on the money against a very good Clemson D. If he does the samething again vs Bama I think people are REALLY going to think twice about who is number 1 and the value of 2 is huge. I was not a fan of Tua or Herbert coming out. Tua had tons of weapons plus a great OL. Herbert I did not like because he missed some very easy throws in college. I was wrong on Herbert but I think I'm right on Tua. I think Miami will be looking for a QB in 2-3 years. 

The bears gave up two thirds (one a future) + 4th  to get from 3 to 2. The jets gave up 3 second from 6 to 3 for Sam. If you're trading inside the top 5, think something more in line between those two as opposed to rg3

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, jetfuel34 said:

No one would have traded up for a broken Tua hip or a Herbert that was projected to go middle of the first round. 

Tua wasn't a middle of the first round QB.  If you trusted the medicals, he was a top 10 pick.  If you didn't, he was a Day 3 gamble.  Maybe late Day 2.

 

3 hours ago, jetfuel34 said:

Now your saying that Fields look lost against Northwestern which I agree but can't a QB have a bad day, I know T Law had a bad day against Clemson but they are not saying he is terrible. I think Fields taking that big hit early and ten coimg back to lead his team to a huge win means a lot to me. I do like Wilson but he his not Fields in my eyes. Fields should have put all that nonsense he can't throw a good deep ball to bed. He was throwing lasers out there and on the money against a very good Clemson D. If he does the samething again vs Bama I think people are REALLY going to think twice about who is number 1 and the value of 2 is huge. I was not a fan of Tua or Herbert coming out. Tua had tons of weapons plus a great OL. Herbert I did not like because he missed some very easy throws in college. I was wrong on Herbert but I think I'm right on Tua. I think Miami will be looking for a QB in 2-3 years. 

Because you've used the same argument citing how good Fields looked against Clemson in their game, but not a SINGLE mention of his game against Northwestern or Indiana.  It's the equivalent of watching a highlight reel to form an opinion on a player.  You're only going to see the good in that player.  Fields struggled badly against Northwestern, and if ti wasn't for Trey Sermon the Buckeyes probably would have lost that game.  Even their game against Indiana, Fields didn't look good.  Certainly not someone that thought could push Trevor Lawrence for the #1 overall pick.  You see him playing with a relatively clean pocket for majority of the season, he's playing with an outstanding supporting cast, and he's got a bit of an elongated release.  Not enough to be an issue, but there's enough to give you some pause.  

But let me ask you this, do you think Fields is closer to Trevor Lawrence or Tua Tagovailola and Justin Herbert as prospects?  Because I think that's where the disconnect is.  He's not nearly as good as Lawrence.  I'd say he's pretty comfortably worse than Lawrence.  In fact, rank the QBs in the last 2 years who are/will be FRPs: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailola, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

The bears gave up two thirds (one a future) + 4th  to get from 3 to 2. The jets gave up 3 second from 6 to 3 for Sam. If you're trading inside the top 5, think something more in line between those two as opposed to rg3

Try something in the middle of those two.  I'd say something like a SRP and maybe a future fourth round pick sounds about right if you're moving back but staying inside the top 5.  But let's do the math backwards here and use the current draft order.

3.) Miami Dolphins - They drafted Tua Tagovailola 5th overall last year, and while he's been disappointing and while I share @jetfuel34's opinion that I think they're going to be looking for a new QB in a few years I think it's way too early for them to write him off.  So if Miami isn't the market for a QB, do they have motivation to trade up?  If they are, you can throw the QB premium out the window and you're talking something akin to what the Bears dealt to move for Trubisky.  But they're probably content staying put and taking one of the non-QBs whether that be JaMarr Chase, Penei Sewell, or someone else.  In fact, they're probably more likely to trade down then they are to trade up.

4.) Atlanta Falcons - I've been pretty vocal that I think they're in the market for a QBOTF.  And I think Justin Fields is a natural fit for a multitude of reasons.  But they're also reasonably going to bounce back next year, and could look for one last run with Matt Ryan as their QB.  The difference between the Falcons and Jets' pick is roughly 800 points, and the Falcons' SRP is worth 540 points.  That's a difference of 260 points, which is worth the 66th pick which is "close enough" to the 68th pick the Falcons would have.  But the Falcons likely don't want to give all their top 96 picks in the same draft, and the Jets probably would be willing to move that 68th pick and make it a future SRP.  That's probably a "best case" scenario for the Jets.  A FRP and SRP this year, and a SRP next year.  Maybe a little something extra to add to the premium.

5.) Cincinnati Bengals - They have Joe Burrow.  They have no need to move up for a QB after selecting Joe Burrow next year, and they're not paying the premium to move up for a non-QB.

I'm more than willing to revisit this discussion if/when the order changes after tomorrow's slate of games, but there's really not much of a market for the Jets to move back inside the top 5 AND pick up the premium that @jetfuel34 is looking for.  Atlanta is really the only viable option here, and they'd have to be absolutely sold on their QBOTF.

[JetsandI]

If T Law, Wilson and Fields make strong case to be taken in top overall 3 then the value of getting one increases.  If not, Jets can take best deal they could find.

Right now, qb situation is a mess for Jets so skipping qb at #2 is not an option.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, JetsandI said:

If T Law, Wilson and Fields make strong case to be taken in top overall 3 then the value of getting one increases.  If not, Jets can take best deal they could find.

Right now, qb situation is a mess for Jets so skipping qb at #2 is not an option.

Because if you can make a deal for 3 with the Dolphins for significantly cheaper than the Jets, why wouldn't you do that?  LIS, this isn't the 2012 class where if you miss out on RG3, you're out of luck.  If you miss out on Wilson or Fields, you have the other.

[JetsandI]

53 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Because if you can make a deal for 3 with the Dolphins for significantly cheaper than the Jets, why wouldn't you do that?  LIS, this isn't the 2012 class where if you miss out on RG3, you're out of luck.  If you miss out on Wilson or Fields, you have the other.

I just used generic ranking. I didn't realize that Dolphins are right after Jets.  Thought it was Falcons, Lions or Panthers.

If any team is happy to take either 3 qbs then it is good idea to trade with Dolphins. That is bummer for sure.  For anyone who wants to trade out of Top 3, they should hope that Jets and one team have interested in same qb.

Nonetheless, Jets should keep #2 if we are about to draft a qb.

[Bobby816]

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Because if you can make a deal for 3 with the Dolphins for significantly cheaper than the Jets, why wouldn't you do that?  LIS, this isn't the 2012 class where if you miss out on RG3, you're out of luck.  If you miss out on Wilson or Fields, you have the other.

Jets won’t make a trade like that inside the Division.

[Greene N White]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Because if you can make a deal for 3 with the Dolphins for significantly cheaper than the Jets, why wouldn't you do that?  LIS, this isn't the 2012 class where if you miss out on RG3, you're out of luck.  If you miss out on Wilson or Fields, you have the other.

That’s such a bad mindset to have. Clearly every nfl team is going to prefer one qb as opposed to the other so why would you settle for less. I get maybe 2 WRs being even and getting more value and ending up with the other one but that is not how the quarterback position works.