2021 NFL Draft Thread

[packfanfb]

2 hours ago, VonKarman said:

Toney would be out of my list. He's not the type of guy you draft in the 1st round.

My most wanted are:

Farley (if he falls)

JOK

Bateman

Newsome

Barmore

Samuel Jr.

Little

Jenkins

Nixon

None of these would upset me, although I think Nixon is a reach at 29. The rest of that list I would say are guys who are fairly in play at end of the 1st, although I think getting Jenkins, Newsome, and maybe even Barmore, would require a slight trade up. 

[ThatJerkDave]

3 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

 

So, how would the rest of you slot your 'most wanted' ?

I really like Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain II.  They are probably long gone by the time that 29 rolls around.

Of the picks that are more likely to be there:

1.  Zaven Collins.  I just think he is special, will he even be there? I don't know.

2.  DillonRadunz, Sam Cosmi, Liam Eichenberg.  I don't know which one, I probably missed a couple as well.  

3.  Terrace Marshall

4.  Christian Barmore

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Yea, it's just such a deep position at the bottom of the first round. Just depends where guys like Radunz, Cosmi, Eichenberg, Little, Leatherwood are on GB's board and in what order...

I really think that we will find out.  I know so little about OL that I have no idea.  But they all seem to pass the Dave test, meaning I think they can start at RT.  I really think we will have the choice of at least 3 of those guys when we are on the clock.  

 

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Yea, every time I look at the WRs, Marshall just keeps standing out as a guy I think the Packers would covet. Batemon as well. He's not 6'3" or anything, but he would be the closest thing we have to Adams on the roster if we picked him up. I'd put Batemon and Marshall as the top 2 "Packer WR types" ahead of even Toney. 

They just have a type.  I think there is a spot for a Toney or Rondale Moore, but the Packers have not really put a premium on that role. Tyler Ervin was a cheap castoff, and Tavon Austin was a cheaper castoff. And they were used mainly as decoys.  Aaron Jones can do a lot of this stuff already.

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

I think CB is the more likely position (over OT) to be cleaned out a bit before 29. I just don't see Newsome making it to 29 and I'm guessing he's the top CB on our board (of the realistic options after Surtain/Horn). No idea if Farley is even on the board with his medical, knowing how conservative we are there. I LOVE Samuel and would gladly make him the pick at 29, but do the Packers like him that much given his size and "less than elite" workout numbers? I hope they do, but I have my doubts. That leaves an option like Jevon Holland who I am really high on because he can play that 3rd safety, nickel CB (star) position. 

I would guess that Farley is off the Packers board.  We don't play around with medicals, especially with spine or brain issues.  I can see a run on the CBs.  Is there a team that doesn't need more CBs? In my eyes, I don't think that the CBs will be BPA at 29.  

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

JOK would be an intriguing pick up. That wouldn't upset me. I don't see Collins making it to 29. I think he's one of those guys who will get drafted earlier than most predicted. Bolton seems kind of "meh" at 29 considering the other positions/guys I think will be there. 

Bolton I think needs the right landing spot, and he can shine.  I think he is a flat out bust if he is the pick for GB.  He is fast and a sure tackler, but I don't think he can take on blocks from anyone, and he is small.  I really like Collins.  I agree that he probably is gone.  JOK is a tweener much like Holland.  I see JOK as a safety that can do some LB things, but he is way too small to do a lot of LB stuff, he is about the size of Adrian Amos.  Holland seems like a better Damarious Randall.  Perhaps using Randall as a CB/S tweener would have been a better use of his skillset than as a simple boundary corner?  Is a tweener type really worth a first round pick?

[R T]

10 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Looking at the available prospects in each position group, plus the Packers' historical tendencies, what percentage would you assign to a position group most likely to go at 29: 

I'd go with this: 

OL: 55% (Likely OT here but even IOL could be in play after losing Linsley)

DB: 25% (I say DB instead of straight up CB to account for someone like Holland)

WR: 10% (Would the Packers be tempted by a Batemon or Marshall at 29....)

DL: 5% (I'd put this higher but the top-end talent of this class sucks. Barmore would be the only option for me here and I'm guessing he'll get over-drafted before 29 due to the lack of other DL options). 

ILB: 5% (This is probably even too high tbh)

0%: QB, RB, TE, EDGE

I think some strong personal bias is in play here. It's probably a week to early, but lets take a look at this. 

Players probably off the board by 29. 

QB - (5) Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones

RB - (1) Harris

TE - (1) Pitts

WR - (4) Chase, Smith, Waddle, Bateman

OL - (5) Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Jenkins, Vera-Tucker

EDGE - (1) Paye

LB - (3) Parsons, Collins, Owusu-Koramoah

CB - (3) Surtain, Horn, Newsome

That is 23 with a very high likelihood of being off the board. The next group of 20 to likely be in play at 29. 

WR - (2) Toney, Marshall

OL - (6) Eichenberg, Radunz, Leatherwood, Little, Humphrey, Dickerson

DL - (1) Barmore

EDGE - (5) Ojulari, Phillips, Oweh, Basham, Rousseau

CB - (3) Farley, Samuel,Jr., Adebo

S - (3) Moehrig, Grant, Holland

People can adjust these players or add and delete whoever they like, but to believe there is a 0% chance of an EDGE being drafted is complete denial of the group of players that will be available at 29.

[packfanfb]

Regarding DL, saw this interesting breakdown of what Barry's scheme could mean for our front and could provide insight as to what type of guys we're looking for in the draft: 

Eagle front: The Rams’ most-used front was an “Eagle” front. A nose tackle, head-up on the center, and two defensive tackle bodies (Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald, usually) playing the 4i technique (slightly over the inside shoulder of the offensive tackle). The EDGE players usually play in a Wide-9 technique outside of the tight end or where a tight end would be lined up. This is a “one-gap” defensive system where players are penetrating upfield, not stacking the offensive linemen and working either side of him. The 4i techniques accomplish two things: first, it forces a lot of double teams, leading to clean linebackers, and it consistently allows the backside B-gap player to reach across his blocker and clean up cut-back lanes.

Defensive line: One of the biggest differences in the Staley scheme is the subpackage system on the defensive line. In the Pettine scheme (and in Capers’, for that matter), if Green Bay was in nickel, there would be two defensive linemen on the field, two EDGEs, and two linebackers. That’s not necessarily the case with this scheme. Oftentimes, the Rams used a single linebacker behind their Eagle front. His responsibilities would be shared by the safeties that were playing closer to the line of scrimmage than on almost any other team. No longer do the Packers covet the traditional 6’6” 5-tech who can two-gap.

This will likely be a one-gap system, and upfield penetration is king. Green Bay will need to deepen their defensive line. The good news is they’ve got two players who will fit in perfectly. Kenny Clark can play the nose position or the 4i. Kingsley Keke profiles as an excellent penetrating 4i. It’s very difficult to project Dean Lowry into the Staley/Fangio scheme. It’s also difficult to justify his place on the roster at his current salary. The Packers are going to need development from their bottom-roster defensive linemen and to make some additions from around the league and in the draft. Unfortunately for Green Bay, this is not a strong draft for defensive linemen. NC State’s Alim McNeil could play the nose and has at least some pass rush upside. Iowa’s Daviyon Nixon is a potential 4i with rare movement skills. LSU’s Tyler Shelvin is another interesting option at 0-tech.

This could mean a few things: 

1. Expect the Packers, even with Kingsley in house, to target "penatrating" DL in the draft, guys like Barmore, Nixon, Odighizuma, Stills, and Mustafa Johnson, guys who fit the 3-tech/4-tech position more than 5-tech. 
2. If Barry plans to install a true Staley-type system, this reinforces the point that Lowry's tenure with the Packers is likely to end before TC. He's a prime candidate for a post-June 1 cut and seems like a square peg in Barry's defense.  

 

Edited April 11, 2021 by packfanfb

[Rodjahs12]

I have a feeling we'll be higher on Greg Rosseau than the draftnik consensus has been on him

[moretti19]

I have not watched any of Dylan Moses but what happened to him? Last year we were all hoping for him in the 1st and now I see him projected for 4th-6th? 

[R T]

12 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

I have a feeling we'll be higher on Greg Rosseau than the draftnik consensus has been on him

Or Oweh. Or Ojulari. I think it is something to consider when, as packfanfb just pointed out, the use of more wide 9 play. The Rams just gave Leonard Floyd a 64M extension, that might be a little telling in the type of player the Packers may be looking to add to the defense.  

[R T]

5 minutes ago, moretti19 said:

I have not watched any of Dylan Moses but what happened to him? Last year we were all hoping for him in the 1st and now I see him projected for 4th-6th? 

Has tore his ACL twice now and was not the same player in 2020 as he was 2018. Might be an interesting day 3 flyer if he did fall that far.  

[Leader]

11 hours ago, Forge said:

Yep, he's one of the guys I've been looking at that for a returner role for the 9ers as well. I prefer Avery Williams since we need corner help as well (and Stevenson's injury history scares me) though. 

No, no....sorry Forge but its time SF experience a decline in overall talent levels....to coincide with an increase in CAP cost. You had your shot. The window is closing now

[packfanfb]

1 hour ago, R T said:

People can adjust these players or add and delete whoever they like, but to believe there is a 0% chance of an EDGE being drafted is complete denial of the group of players that will be available at 29.

I'd agree there is a slight chance they could go EDGE in Rd 1 if their plan is to frequently use Z and Gary in the 4i tech position in Barry's defense. 

[R T]

17 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I'd agree there is a slight chance they could go EDGE in Rd 1 if their plan is to frequently use Z and Gary in the 4i tech position in Barry's defense. 

Or the Packers will just draft the best player on their board regardless of position like they do every year. 

[packfanfb]

3 minutes ago, R T said:

Or the Packers will just draft the best player on their board regardless of position like they do every year. 

I don't think the Packers necessarily draft "best player available." They tend to go for "best value available" which is a mix of BPA and need. If the Packers are at 29 and their top 3 guys are EDGE, OT, CB, in that order (and they're close on the board), I doubt they go EDGE. 

Edited April 11, 2021 by packfanfb

[R T]

3 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I don't think the Packers necessarily draft "best player available." They tend to go for "best value available" which is a mix of BPA and need. If the Packers are at 29 and their top 3 guys are EDGE, OT, CB, in that order (and they're close on the board), I doubt they go EDGE. 

You mean like last year when they drafted a QB and RB in the first two rounds or the year before when they drafted an EDGE player 12th overall after investing over 100M in Edge players in FA. If an EDGE player is the highest rated player, they will draft the EDGE player. 

I'm not trying to get you or anyone else stirred up here and if it helps you sleep at night believe whatever you like, but don't be shocked if the position doesn't line up with your thinking come draft day. Because the Packers will draft the highest rated player on their board, period.    

[packfanfb]

7 minutes ago, R T said:

You mean like last year when they drafted a QB and RB in the first two rounds or the year before when they drafted an EDGE player 12th overall after investing over 100M in Edge players in FA. If an EDGE player is the highest rated player, they will draft the EDGE player. 

I'm not trying to get you or anyone else stirred up here and if it helps you sleep at night believe whatever you like, but don't be shocked if the position doesn't line up with your thinking come draft day. Because the Packers will draft the highest rated player on their board, period.    

If an EDGE player is that high on GB's board, then the Packers believe he's the best value at the pick, which takes "need" into consideration. The need doesn't have to be immediate, which is why the Love and Dillon picks actually support what I'm saying. You think GB would have drafted Jordan Love in the first round of the 2011 draft after Rodgers won the SB in his 20s? Of course not, even if Love was their "highest rated player." 

The simple point here is that players are not drafted in a vacuum simply because they are good players. How the player fits into the team's plan, whether immediate or in the future obviously factors in, especially for 1st rounders.