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This data is awesome for Rashod Bateman and not great for Terrace Marshall Jr. Caveat is it's always going to be harder to ****** up big MS percentages when you're playing with other studs, and harder to earn time immediately when you're at the biggest college WR factory of the what?...last 50 years. 

TMJ has an elite Dominator Rating(46.5%) and 85th percentile BOA. Acclimation and production weren't issues for him. This chart is more of feather in Rashod Bateman's cap than anything else. He only had Tyler Johnson to contend with for yards and did do so incredibly. 

 

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Just now, DreamKid said:

going to be harder to ****** up big MS percentages

Nooo!!

I forgot about the great FootballsFuture Easter Egg. That a certain colloquialism for a certain something is censored on here 🤣. I always fall victim to it around draft season, as do many other posters. #FreeTheSn*tch 

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9 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Some people might write this point off, but I think it's an excellent one.

For example, Marquise having AB as his cousin and working out with him has clearly had an affect on his game. It is a major selling point imo.

If we do go WR early, I think we're down to Terrace Marshall and Rashod Bateman as the names to watch for. Neither are terrible gambles. I like the Robinson comp for Marshall, and I think while his floor could be iffy the ceiling is potentially better than Robinson's(Might have a speed and fluidity edge over AR). And Keenan Allen is a popular comp for Rashod Bateman, which I'm fine with.

No LSU players drafted- ever. Then back to back 1st Rounders from Baton Rouge would be pretty trippy. 5 Star Recruit, Good SEC production at a young age, confidence to head for the NFL early at 20 Y/O, elite peers/friends at the same position, no glaring athletic limitations, physical dimensions are perfect(6'3 200+), NFL Bloodlines(Uncle Joe Delaney ran for 1K with the Chiefs in the 80s(died tragic hero's death),...🤷‍♂️ Tape isn't flawless but beggers can't be choosers, and he boasts one of the better Late 1st-Early 2nd WR Profiles we've had a shot at in a while.

Yup. Marshall isn’t perfect, but neither was DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Michael Thomas, DeMaryius Thomas, etc. Heck even Justin Jefferson had warts as a prospect.

They all look flawless the moment they breakout in the NFL. What we know is that Marshall has all the measurables you look for, he’s got the physical tools ideal of the position, he’s got the production, and age. He seems to love the game as well. He was a top WR recruit that has turned himself into a high consideration NFL prospect.

It would be a high risk taking Marshall, but I suppose as long as we hit on the backend of the draft, the risk would be worth it. What’s more I’m also more confident in risking a 1st round pick on a WR like Marshall than risking $10-11m on a FA WR like Corey Davis or something.

Also I just thought of this as well, but there’s likely also got to be a burning desired for Marshall to prove himself, even as a 1st round pick, considering his teammates both will likely have been drafted in a higher selection. Those are bragging rights that he won’t have and thus will have to work hard to flex on his boys while in the league.

4 hours ago, DreamKid said:

This data is awesome for Rashod Bateman and not great for Terrace Marshall Jr. Caveat is it's always going to be harder to ****** up big MS percentages when you're playing with other studs, and harder to earn time immediately when you're at the biggest college WR factory of the what?...last 50 years. 

TMJ has an elite Dominator Rating(46.5%) and 85th percentile BOA. Acclimation and production weren't issues for him. This chart is more of feather in Rashod Bateman's cap than anything else. He only had Tyler Johnson to contend with for yards and did do so incredibly. 

 

Yeah, I won’t castigate him too much. A guy like Bateman or Moore playing for run of the mill programs had better breakout quickly. I will say however that the one trend I’m noticing in with some of my favorite prospects at the WR position by analyzing these numbers is this, when the top WR prospects breakout, they typically are seriously breaking out.

DeVonta Smith gets his 20% and 30% market share in similar games played, 31 and 36, five games difference; Terrace Marshall in 28 and 31, three game difference; Rondale Moore in 6 and 8, two game difference; Dwayne Eskridge in 17 and 18, one game difference; Tylan Wallace in 16 and 18, two game difference; Jamar Chase in 16 and 20, four game difference. IIRC Cade Johnson stood out to me at the senior bowl practices I watched. Rashod Bateman while not as tightly spaced as the other options in breakout, he’s still below the double digits with only a seven game difference.

To me that seems to show that when a guy breaks out, his team seems to look at him as legitimately THE guy to the point where they assign to him the tall task of very critical market share opportunities. Whereas a wide gap could mean that guys broke out as a Robin prior to becoming a Batman within their offense. Nothing wrong with that, but perhaps fully breaking out with opportunity means a player only needed opportunity to obtain said market share, while the other player was provided said opportunities, but simply wasn’t capable of rising to those moments to secure said production. I think this is probably just as critical information to be gleaned as how many games it took for an athlete to ‘dominate’.

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10 hours ago, DreamKid said:

This data is awesome for Rashod Bateman and not great for Terrace Marshall Jr. Caveat is it's always going to be harder to ****** up big MS percentages when you're playing with other studs, and harder to earn time immediately when you're at the biggest college WR factory of the what?...last 50 years. 

TMJ has an elite Dominator Rating(46.5%) and 85th percentile BOA. Acclimation and production weren't issues for him. This chart is more of feather in Rashod Bateman's cap than anything else. He only had Tyler Johnson to contend with for yards and did do so incredibly. 

 

Best. Receiver. In. The. Draft.


Don't @ me. 😎

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These WR super prospects like Jamarr Chase and Devonta Smith always go super high in the draft(they'll likely both go Top 10), and what's funny is.... their selection almost never changes the actual fortune of the teams picking them.

They would make a difference for the teams picking later in the round that have the foundational/core positions stabilized, but never make it to them.

I can understand if they're a severe BPA option, but most of the time they just aren't. 

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10 years ago in the 2011 Draft the Falcons went from pick #27 to pick #6 in a trade up with the Browns to secure Julio Jones.

They gave up their 2011 1st(#27), 2nd(#59), 4th(#124) & 2012 1st(#22), 4th(#118)

Would you give up that same compensation(Our picks in the 2021 Draft will be nearly identical) to trade up to 6th with the Eagles and pick Ja'Marr Chase? (Or Devonta Smith if he's your WR#1)

Had we done the deal with the Browns instead of the Falcons back then, here's what the trade off would've looked like-

Trade Return: Pick #6- WR Julio Jones

vs

Actual Selections: 2011 - Pick #27- CB Jimmy Smith  Pick #58- WR Torrey Smith  Pick #123- WR Tandon Doss   2012- Trade down in 1st, Pick #29 to Vikes for Pick #35- OLB Courtney Upshaw & Pick #98- IOL Gino Gradkowski  Pick #124 was traded to the Bills for WR Lee Evans

 

Couple things to note in the analysis: 

1. The only core position we're truly weak at is IOL(C/RG). At QB,CB,DI,OT we have a star, young star or riser(LJ8,Stanley,Campbell/Madubuike, Humph/Peters/Smith/Young).

2. Tackle is in flux with the OBJ situation, but we'd receive at least a Mid-Late 1st for him. Also it's traditionally easier to identify functional RTs in the draft.

3. Ja'Marr Chase is a better and more bust proof WR prospect than Julio was- by far(imo). 

4. Player Performance Weaknesses in 2020 were 1. WR Performance 2. IOL Performance & 3. Pass Rush Performance(Got the job done obviously but most metrics indicate it certainly wasn't a strength. Showcasing just how important the elite coverage pieces we have are, hence Marlo's massive 2020 extension)

In house options for each area-

WR: Marquise Brown, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin, James Proche, Antoine Wesley: I'm writing Boykin off, don't see him blossoming in Baltimore. He's had two seasons worth of opportunity already and looks like a low end WR3/4. Hollywood is a great player. Duvernay has youth, juice, and secure hands. A better OC likely would have seen him secure a bigger place in the 2020 offense. Proche and Wesley are wild cards we shouldn't count on. 

IOL: Bradley Bozeman, Patrick Mekari, Ben Powers, Tyre Phillips, Ben Bredeson: Bozeman is a starting level talent and at 26 could continue to ascend. Raised his game once already from the 2019 to 2020. Not a lot of athletic ability to dig much more progression out of though. Mekari is young and has flashed, but has no future at Center. The rest are young and inexperienced with either limited(Powers), sub par(Phillips) or no tape at all(Bredeson).

Pass Rush:  Outside PR- EDGE: RUSH Jaylon Ferguson: Currently our only outside player under contract through 2021. Campbell can play base end in sub packages, but didn't really in 2020. So far.. Ferg hasn't shown anything, against the run or with his pass rush. Exceptionally poor athletic profile as well, so any major leap unfortunately is probably out of the question.

                    Inside PR- DI: 5T Calais Campbell, 3T Justin Madubuike, Broderick Washington: Campbell is still a plus to elite presence in the interior on a week to week basis. Not the monster he once was but can still dominate for stretches. Advanced age will likely degrade his potential impact each successive year. Madubuike looks like a future star who emerged from the COVID offseason and a month long injury absence to cement himself down the stretch. Legitimate impact option against the run & pass, and at 23 Y/O with elite athleticism we should expect major progression each season of his Rookie contract.

 

So if we did that deal for Ja'Marr Chase, we could cross off WR from any Major Need list and would be left with this to address our Top 2021 Needs: IOL, and our Pass Rush:

1. Free Agency(Obviously this comes before the draft, just zooming out on the situation at large)

2. Draft

    2021 Picks: (Culley Comp) 3rd, 5th, (Likely Pierce Comp) 5th, 6th, 7th

    2022 Picks(Listed because of potential Pick for Player trades similar to the 2020 in season deal for Yanny): 2nd, 3rd, (Culley Comp) 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th *Player Comps yet to be determined, but looks like there could be a lot(Yanny,Judon,Bowser,etc)

 

Thoughts? 

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Anyone else have a feeling we go defensive back early? 

I feel like Decosta wants to keep the secondary strong. 

on paper Its low on our list of needs but so was Marlon Humphrey at the time and we ended up appreciating him a lot early. 

It just feels like this is one of those drafts where we’re all geared up for offensive needs and then the fan base flips out when we go defence 

Edited by ThatJaxxenGuy
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Just now, ThatJaxxenGuy said:

Anyone else have a feeling we go defensive back early? 

I feel like Decosta wants to keep the secondary strong. 

Its low on our list of needs but so was Marlon Hunphrey at the time and we ended up needing him a lot

The only positions off the board for me on Day 1 & 2 are ILB, RB, & QB. Nothing else would really surprise me. Needs at every other position.

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7 minutes ago, M.10.E said:

The only positions off the board for me on Day 1 & 2 are ILB, RB, & QB. Nothing else would really surprise me. Needs at every other position.

No doubt I can see that as well- I feel like since our DBs are a strength, making it next level is our best shot at rolling with teams like the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC right now. 

I want IOL as early as is realistic but I have a feeling defense goes first round and I’d rather an athletic safety or corner than a raw pass rushing project. 

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10 hours ago, DreamKid said:

10 years ago in the 2011 Draft the Falcons went from pick #27 to pick #6 in a trade up with the Browns to secure Julio Jones.

They gave up their 2011 1st(#27), 2nd(#59), 4th(#124) & 2012 1st(#22), 4th(#118)

Would you give up that same compensation(Our picks in the 2021 Draft will be nearly identical) to trade up to 6th with the Eagles and pick Ja'Marr Chase? (Or Devonta Smith if he's your WR#1)

Had we done the deal with the Browns instead of the Falcons back then, here's what the trade off would've looked like-

Trade Return: Pick #6- WR Julio Jones

vs

Actual Selections: 2011 - Pick #27- CB Jimmy Smith  Pick #58- WR Torrey Smith  Pick #123- WR Tandon Doss   2012- Trade down in 1st, Pick #29 to Vikes for Pick #35- OLB Courtney Upshaw & Pick #98- IOL Gino Gradkowski  Pick #124 was traded to the Bills for WR Lee Evans

 

Couple things to note in the analysis: 

1. The only core position we're truly weak at is IOL(C/RG). At QB,CB,DI,OT we have a star, young star or riser(LJ8,Stanley,Campbell/Madubuike, Humph/Peters/Smith/Young).

2. Tackle is in flux with the OBJ situation, but we'd receive at least a Mid-Late 1st for him. Also it's traditionally easier to identify functional RTs in the draft.

3. Ja'Marr Chase is a better and more bust proof WR prospect than Julio was- by far(imo). 

4. Player Performance Weaknesses in 2020 were 1. WR Performance 2. IOL Performance & 3. Pass Rush Performance(Got the job done obviously but most metrics indicate it certainly wasn't a strength. Showcasing just how important the elite coverage pieces we have are, hence Marlo's massive 2020 extension)

In house options for each area-

WR: Marquise Brown, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin, James Proche, Antoine Wesley: I'm writing Boykin off, don't see him blossoming in Baltimore. He's had two seasons worth of opportunity already and looks like a low end WR3/4. Hollywood is a great player. Duvernay has youth, juice, and secure hands. A better OC likely would have seen him secure a bigger place in the 2020 offense. Proche and Wesley are wild cards we shouldn't count on. 

IOL: Bradley Bozeman, Patrick Mekari, Ben Powers, Tyre Phillips, Ben Bredeson: Bozeman is a starting level talent and at 26 could continue to ascend. Raised his game once already from the 2019 to 2020. Not a lot of athletic ability to dig much more progression out of though. Mekari is young and has flashed, but has no future at Center. The rest are young and inexperienced with either limited(Powers), sub par(Phillips) or no tape at all(Bredeson).

Pass Rush:  Outside PR- EDGE: RUSH Jaylon Ferguson: Currently our only outside player under contract through 2021. Campbell can play base end in sub packages, but didn't really in 2020. So far.. Ferg hasn't shown anything, against the run or with his pass rush. Exceptionally poor athletic profile as well, so any major leap unfortunately is probably out of the question.

                    Inside PR- DI: 5T Calais Campbell, 3T Justin Madubuike, Broderick Washington: Campbell is still a plus to elite presence in the interior on a week to week basis. Not the monster he once was but can still dominate for stretches. Advanced age will likely degrade his potential impact each successive year. Madubuike looks like a future star who emerged from the COVID offseason and a month long injury absence to cement himself down the stretch. Legitimate impact option against the run & pass, and at 23 Y/O with elite athleticism we should expect major progression each season of his Rookie contract.

 

So if we did that deal for Ja'Marr Chase, we could cross off WR from any Major Need list and would be left with this to address our Top 2021 Needs: IOL, and our Pass Rush:

1. Free Agency(Obviously this comes before the draft, just zooming out on the situation at large)

2. Draft

    2021 Picks: (Culley Comp) 3rd, 5th, (Likely Pierce Comp) 5th, 6th, 7th

    2022 Picks(Listed because of potential Pick for Player trades similar to the 2020 in season deal for Yanny): 2nd, 3rd, (Culley Comp) 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th *Player Comps yet to be determined, but looks like there could be a lot(Yanny,Judon,Bowser,etc)

 

Thoughts? 

Disagree with Chase being the better prospect than Julio. He was just in a more explosive/modern offense:

Julio- 64th percentile college dominator, 46th percentile college YPR, 88th percentile college target share, 76th percentile breakout age.
Chase- 62nd percentile college dominator, 96th percentile college YPR, 35th percentile college target share, 78th percentile breakout age.

The numbers are quite similar. Chase had more big plays to his credit, but Julio was more irreplaceable within his collegiate offense. Throw in the extra 3” in size, the extra length, and the freakish athletic profile that Chase simply can’t match and I don’t particularly think it’s close. Especially when we take into consideration that Julio Jones was the 2nd ranked HS recruit coming out and their was guys gunning for him since the moment he stepped onto campus, Chase got to sort of catch guys by surprise a little more in that sophomore season after doing a lot less than Julio had done in their respective freshman campaigns, then opted out his final season when he would’ve been in a position where opposing SEC coordinators would’ve been gunning for him all season... as they had done for Julio in his sophomore season.

Overall I think Julio was easily more bust-proof considering his resume, history as the top guy in recruiting, and top guy in college as well. What Julio did at Alabama at that point in time was unheard of for an Alabama WR. If Julio was coming out of the current Alabama where they actually love passing the ball, he’d have probably put up a 2000 receiving season.
———

But none of this answers your question. I wouldn’t do it. If there were a legitimate Julio/Megatron type WR available, I would strongly consider it, especially considering that Julio played in a run first offense and was a dominant blocker coming out, whereas Chase presents no effort in run blocking in the slightest. So while I love DeVonta Smith, I’m not giving up that kind of value to obtain his services.

This draft has elite OL talent available and I’d rather not pass up our chance at getting such to be over aggressive with the WR position.

In fact, I don’t think the gap between JaMarr Chase and his teammate Terrace Marshall to even be that great, maybe I’d say it’s a difference between 2nd/3rd round value, but certainly not more than that. Prior to Marshall going down with injury, he was leading the 2019 unit in receiving TDs over Chase. Marshall is the more committed blocker, even if they both suck at it. Overall let’s look at their profiles:

Chase- 62nd percentile college dominator, 96th percentile college YPR, 35th percentile college target share, 78th percentile breakout age.

Marshall- 92nd percentile college dominator, 57th percentile college YPR, 22nd percentile college target share, 85th percentile breakout age.

So neither receiver got a crap ton of target shares within that explosive offense and while both made big plays, Chase was elite at it, turning his 35th percentile target shares into elite YPR returns and a dominant offensive performance. Yet Marshall took even less targets shares with his 22nd percentile and turned those into an elite college dominator performance.

None of this breaks down the tape or strengths and weaknesses of each receiver, however I’m sure I’ll focus more on that in some later post. But in terms of athleticism between the two as HS seniors:

Chase- 6’1” 197 lbs, 4.66 forty, 4.06 short shuttle, 36.2” vertical, 36.7 power throw, 107.46 sparq rating.
Marshall- 6’3” 193 lbs; 4.53 forty, 4.33 short shuttle, 35” vertical, 37 power throw, 99.99 sparq rating.

All this to say that in my estimation, I’d much rather hold onto our picks and take Marshall then to spend all those resource and go after Chase. And I know this is just the stats and athletic profiles, but watching the tape has lent me a similar opinion, though I’ll probably get into that later.

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49 minutes ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said:

No doubt I can see that as well- I feel like since our DBs are a strength, making it next level is our best shot at rolling with teams like the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC right now. 

I want IOL as early as is realistic but I have a feeling defense goes first round and I’d rather an athletic safety or corner than a raw pass rushing project. 

Yeah I think safety is probably the most 'underrated' possible 1st round route and EDGE is probably the most overstated.

As far as the EDGE positions are concerned, we'll find out in FA how much the FO has changed their thinking around their position, but I think a lot of the available routes point towards it potentially being more of a mid-round target rather than a premium asset. Either we re-sign Ngakoue (or even Judon) and commit to paying a guy to be our franchise edge rusher, at which point you're just looking for rotational pieces around him (part of which will be addressed by re-signing guys like McPhee and Ward on the cheap).

Or EDC may have resolved after this season that it's too easy to scheme around EDGE pressure and let both Ngakoue and Judon walk while shopping in the cheaper and middle tiers of FA, maybe pay Bowser if he doesn't get an insane offer elsewhere. If that happens, everyone's going to say that EDGE is our biggest need for us but it seems like we only go down that route if the FO has decided that they don't value the position as highly and prioritize building through coverage rather than pressure, at which point using our 1st rounder there isn't necessarily a no-brainer. 

Edited by SalvadorsDeli
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On 1/29/2021 at 3:15 AM, diamondbull424 said:

Some guys that stood out to me watching the above clips:
Ritchie Grant- Dude plays with a lot of fire, heart, and competitiveness. You can tell he practices how he plays, seeing that from a safety in cover drills was impressive.

Drake Jackson- Great job anchoring vs Wilson, even with Wilson only looking mediocre, Jackson probably had one of the best looking reps against him.

 

3 hours ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said:

No doubt I can see that as well- I feel like since our DBs are a strength, making it next level is our best shot at rolling with teams like the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC right now. 

I want IOL as early as is realistic but I have a feeling defense goes first round and I’d rather an athletic safety or corner than a raw pass rushing project. 

 

2 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Yeah I think safety is probably the most 'underrated' possible 1st round route and EDGE is probably the most overstated.

As far as the EDGE positions are concerned, we'll find out in FA how much the FO has changed their thinking around their position, but I think a lot of the available routes point towards it potentially being more of a mid-round target rather than a premium asset. Either we re-sign Ngakoue (or even Judon) and commit to paying a guy to be our franchise edge rusher, at which point you're just looking for rotational pieces around him (part of which will be addressed by re-signing guys like McPhee and Ward on the cheap).

Or EDC may have resolved after this season that it's too easy to scheme around EDGE pressure and let both Ngakoue and Judon walk while shopping in the cheaper and middle tiers of FA, maybe pay Bowser if he doesn't get an insane offer elsewhere. If that happens, everyone's going to say that EDGE is our biggest need for us but it seems like we only go down that route if the FO has decided that they don't value the position as highly and prioritize building through coverage rather than pressure, at which point using our 1st rounder there isn't necessarily a no-brainer. 

Yeah I had been banging the FS being our #1 draft need for much of the season, until that playoff game against Buffalo.

I still think it’s our #1 need, but finding a safety worth taking in round 1 has been the problem. But Ritchie Grant is absolutely shooting up my personal board and I think he could be a potential steal of the draft.

I hadn’t really paid much attention to him throughout the process to this point as while I’ve watched some safeties, typically I consistently come away unimpressed and/or its hard to get All-22 footage of guys.

Seeing Ritchie Grant at the Senior Bowl as my #1 standout and seeing the below video by Voch, I’m becoming very impressed with what I see. He’s looking like the most complete FS I’ve seen since Fitzpatrick and James came out that year.

Right now his stock appears to be as a late 3rd/early 4th round guy, we’ll see how much that is expected to change post-combine. However, he definitely gives me Kevin Byard vibes from a few years back. Paired with Chuck Clark upfront and DeShon Elliot in some nickel looks, Grant could transform into an elite NFL FS.

Hard to say how other teams might evaluate him though, so the key will be maximizing his draft board value; drafting him prior to another team that might also covet him, but not waiting too long for some other team to ****** him up. So we’ll probably ultimately be talking about a 2nd/3rd round selection, so I could see a trade down similar to last season when we selected Justin Madubuike at the top of the 3rd round, only this time we would be adding an elite ascending DB option.
———

Not that anyone is suggesting that we SHOULD go safety in round 1, but on the notion of it, I think the front office would be smart to pass on safety until day 2 of the draft. I think the 1st round should be reserved for a) accumulating additional draft assets (trade downs with the Jags and Jets would be ideal scenarios) OR taking a shot on the positions we’ve had the most issues with figuring out, which IMO is WR and Center. We haven’t had a truly good center since Matt Birk, maybe Ryan Jensen’s one season? But we’ve never had a truly elite player at either WR or Center in the history of this franchise. So in the 1st that’s where I think we should look to tunnel our vision.
———

Back to DB/Richie Grant/this rant. Here is Voch giving a breakdown on what Grant brings to the table.


Here is some Richie Grant at the Senior Bowl

_______

The above all said, if for some reason the Ravens did go safety in Round 1, the only name I’m comfortable with hearing is Richie Grant. I’ve seen most of the top safeties at this point and he’s definitely the best I’ve seen. Moehrig brings better athleticism and size, Ar’Darius Washington brings similar instincts and willingness to tackle, but neither presents the same combination of athleticism, physicality, willingness, instincts, and intelligence as Grant. He’s certainly the real deal. He plays like a Raven, for sure.

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Richie Grant is a classic case of a guy possibly changing his whole life with a dominant Senior Bowl performance. 

8 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Right now his stock appears to be as a late 3rd/early 4th round guy, we’ll see how much that is expected to change post-combine.

I'm seeing a lot of Late 2- Early 3rd buzz. That's how much he impressed. Kudos to him, he balled out and showed almost every skill set you want out of a Safety.

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