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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL THREAD MIAMI VS JACKSONVILLE


El Ramster

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BTW, these 2 teams are bad. They also have had some moments of excellent QB play.

Minshew was 19-20 with 3 TDs in week 1

Fitz was 18-20 tonight with 2 TDs and 1 rushing TD.

 

They are at 73.8% and 71.1% completions through 3 NFL 2020 games on weak offenses. 👍

Its no Russell Wilson at 82.5% but its impressive anyway.

 

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10 minutes ago, FinSting said:

Yes but the 59-10  and 43-0 losses to start last year were the product of exploding the team right before the season started with the massive Texans trade. And the new regime change that happens with any team, out with the old in with the new. 

Take out those *hilarious* losses and things begin to settle down last season. They were very competitive in the next 5 games even though they lost. Probably should won a couple of those actually. 

They lost by 25 the next week

They lost by 20 the week after that

They got the DC Football Team so it was close.

They lost by 10

They lost by 13

That's still and average loss of about 2 TDs at 13.8

 

If you want to say they gradually got a little better then maybe, but its an impressive turnaround from 0-7 with 6 double digit losses.

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37 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

They lost by 25 the next week

They lost by 20 the week after that

They got the DC Football Team so it was close.

They lost by 10

They lost by 13

That's still and average loss of about 2 TDs at 13.8

 

If you want to say they gradually got a little better then maybe, but its an impressive turnaround from 0-7 with 6 double digit losses.

Fins had the lead in some of those games. Garbage-time points skewed the final score. After the heinous openers, competitive fire had them battling in most every game in 2019 regardless of the Steve Young hysteria. 

That's just good, even-keel coaching at work. 

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2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

But you aren't limited to those choices. It's not mediocre HB and great offense or great HB and mediocre offense.

It is a bit of a false dichotomy, but the reality of the NFL...is that you're gonna have to make compromises somewhere.  In the draft or in free agency.  You're going to have to patch certain spots with "decent talent" rather than great.  Sacrificing swings on "top talent RB" in favour of more talented OLine just seems like the road to success lately.

I'm not saying just roll out whatever joe schmo who stinks at RB and expect to have success.  There's a basic level of competence necessary there.  But beyond that...it's one of the easiest positions in the league to "compromise" on, if you can find that competent guy who fits the scheme, and have the OLine talent and system to be successful.

 

2 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Is Westbrook really that bad that the Jags just have him on punts and they're giving tons of snaps to Conley? I thought he was supposed to be good. 

He can't catch the football, so yes.  He is actually really not good.

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2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Meh, I don't know. If the dude hadn't hired terrible DCs, he might still be HC in Washington. He needs to surround himself with talented coordinators, but he wasn't an abjectly terrible HC. Kind of strikes me as an average one.

Gruden isn't as clear a case of that as some of the others, especially some of the defensive side of the ball guys who are great DCs but not good HCs.  But i'd wager a top tier OC might actually be worth more than even a kinda middle of the road HC.

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That game was classic situational influence. An 0-2 road team often has extreme energy and intensity level because there is such a vast difference between 1-2 and 0-3. Consequently there are frequent results that deviate wildly from expectation, like Buffalo's blowout at Minnesota in 2018 as 18 point underdog. The Bills won by three touchdowns.

Road teams coming off a loss historically do much better than road teams coming off a victory, in terms of pointspread expectation. The bottom line is 54% of road teams coming off a defeat cover the spread, compared to only 45% of road teams coming off a victory. At home it really doesn't matter if you are coming off a win or loss. But every home team should always hope that it's opponent wins the prior week. You'll get a less desperate opponent. That's why the 0-2 road team can have such unusual energy level. It's already a high energy scenario while coming off a defeat, and when you combine the specific aspect of 0-2 then the advantage can be to extreme.

Obviously this doesn't work every time. But as someone who lived in Las Vegas for 24 years betting sports, it was a well known trend that the wise guys took advantage of. For whatever reason the mainstream media is totally clueless regarding situational variance. 

The only problem with tonight's game was the short week. I made a smaller wager than the norm since the 0-2 road advantage conflicted with the road Thursday disadvantage. 

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