2021 Draft Thread

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, John232 said:

I have no idea what Shanny subscribes too when it comes to QB development, but I think there's a good chance he takes someone like Lance/Wilson and lets them sit. I wouldn't want that, nor do I think that's smart..but I could see it happening..especially if they restructure Jimmy G. 

That said, is Lombardi someone whose reliable when it comes to our team?

I think he's a reliable for the most part. He's a fan of stats without context a little too much, and I have corrected him on twitter a couple of times LOL. I find him to be a bit of a homer, but he could just be an optimist lol. 

I'm not even banking on us drafting a guy, to be perfectly honest. If we took someone in round one, I'd want them to start right away just so I don't have to pay Jimmy 24 million. I don't even care if that is Trey Lance. Use that Jimmy money for other areas of the team, sign a guy that can compete with the rookie if necessary. If they draft a guy and restructure Jimmy I'll probably be apoplectic as I think it is wholly unnecessary. Seems highly inefficient to me to be honest. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

Just now, Forge said:

I think he's a reliable for the most part. He's a fan of stats without context a little too much, and I have corrected him on twitter a couple of times LOL. I find him to be a bit of a homer, but he could just be an optimist lol. 

I'm not even banking on us drafting a guy, to be perfectly honest. If we took someone in round one, I'd want them to start right away just so I don't have to pay Jimmy 24 million. I don't even care if that is Trey Lance. Use that Jimmy money for other areas of the team, sign a guy that can compete with the rookie if necessary. If they draft a guy and restructure Jimmy I'll probably be apoplectic as I think it is wholly unnecessary. Seems highly inefficient to me to be honest. 

Yeah, i like David. is he a bit too optimistic at times? sure but there are some who are just a bit too negative for me.

but that last paragraph is where I get stuck between: Draft new QB and let him start right away or keep Jimmy/draft new guy or go after a vet. As you said, we could use the money from Jimmy elsewhere. Guess we will have to wait and see what the cap is this year first.

My stance used to be stay away from the QBs like Trey Lance, yes I was a big time Josh Allen hater. but because of how Josh Allen has progress after three years, I am open to the idea of someone like Lance.

Though with the developments of Deebo and Aiyuk in their rookie years, I feel a tad bit better if we start a Rookie QB week 1? Although the learning arc is a bit different between the two positions...

I keep trying to find excuses or reasons to keep Jimmy, bad ankle and all but I always go back to W1 where he flat out was terrible with no injuries. So with that, I am hoping we do move on from him but I am prepared that he could possible be back...

[John232]

23 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think he's a reliable for the most part. He's a fan of stats without context a little too much, and I have corrected him on twitter a couple of times LOL. I find him to be a bit of a homer, but he could just be an optimist lol. 

I'm not even banking on us drafting a guy, to be perfectly honest. If we took someone in round one, I'd want them to start right away just so I don't have to pay Jimmy 24 million. I don't even care if that is Trey Lance. Use that Jimmy money for other areas of the team, sign a guy that can compete with the rookie if necessary. If they draft a guy and restructure Jimmy I'll probably be apoplectic as I think it is wholly unnecessary. Seems highly inefficient to me to be honest. 

I mean, i don't want any restructuring either. Over it. would rather move on and reset our cap as best as we can while we re-sign new guys.  But considering the amount of turnover we're about to see in the secondary, I can see Jimmy...Ward being the "guy" to get restructured too. 

Another thing to consider is that Jimmy G really should have a pretty nice trade market. Lets say the big four go top 12. Trask and Jones I think will each get boosted into late first, very early second.

But there's so many teams picking after/around us and  in the mid-late first that don't really have any long term solution at QB OR they have huge question marks..and  they may not be able to get a young rookie to fill right now. I think there's more demand than Supply: 

• Indy,
• Chicago,,
• MInnesota,
• NE
• Detroit
• Steelers (Ben is awful now)
• Washington
• Atlanta
• Denver
• Tampa
• Saints
• Dallas (if they move on from Dak, obviously)..

I could see a lot of these teams end up more inclined to go with Jimmy G than a rookie. Money is obviously going to be a big factor in this...but idk..Jimmy on a down year should still be able to get a 2nd imo. At least a third. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by John232

[Forge]

50 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Yeah, i like David. is he a bit too optimistic at times? sure but there are some who are just a bit too negative for me.

but that last paragraph is where I get stuck between: Draft new QB and let him start right away or keep Jimmy/draft new guy or go after a vet. As you said, we could use the money from Jimmy elsewhere. Guess we will have to wait and see what the cap is this year first.

My stance used to be stay away from the QBs like Trey Lance, yes I was a big time Josh Allen hater. but because of how Josh Allen has progress after three years, I am open to the idea of someone like Lance.

Though with the developments of Deebo and Aiyuk in their rookie years, I feel a tad bit better if we start a Rookie QB week 1? Although the learning arc is a bit different between the two positions...

I keep trying to find excuses or reasons to keep Jimmy, bad ankle and all but I always go back to W1 where he flat out was terrible with no injuries. So with that, I am hoping we do move on from him but I am prepared that he could possible be back...

It's basically simple for me. If we keep Jimmy, we can't put the team around him that we need to be a super bowl contender without restructuring. Most people agree that he's not going to be the type that carries a squad. That's where we are at. You have to crap or get off the pot with him - you have to restructure to keep him here longer, or you have to let him go. I have no desire whatsoever to restructure him and tie myself to him for longer...you're just creating issues down the line. But that is just me. If you don't restructure him, you can't surround him with the talent that he needs. So here is how I would break it down: 

1. Draft a guy in the first; cut / trade Jimmy. Sign minor back up or a guy who can compete with rookie but is unlikely to win (Mariota if he's cut, if you are able to trade Jimmy and he goes to the Bears, you can take Foles back, etc). If you draft a guy in the first, you just need to let him go out and play. Our team is not a disaster, which is the only time I advise on having guys sit. Reps matter; people forget if you're not starting, you're not getting the reps in practice either. 

2. Keep Jimmy, restructure, draft a guy round 3 or later or don't draft a guy at all, bring in outside back up (Schaub would make a lot of sense). This is all in on the current team. You tie yourself to Jimmy for 2021 and 2022 most likely at the very least, gives you some room to add / replace players in FA, allows you to spend your first two picks on immediate impact players around Jimmy. This is a move that I see as highly likely. It's not a bad move...Jimmy is...okay. But It's a situation where I think you look at what the Rams are going through with Goff right now, and that's probably our future. Keeps the team competitive but you're behind the 8 ball I think in winning a super bowl and you're going to need a nearly elite level team. Everything has to break right. It's probably the most stable move, but I think it's the least likely be a long term winner. 

3. Cut / Trade Jimmy, bring in another vet. The very least likely to happen. Kyle will have to be all in on the guy he's replacing. In truth, the only guy that actually makes sense here is Wentz, which is a guy that I have no interest in. He's a lateral move financially (slightly cheaper in year 2022), so no savings, but wouldn't cost much of anything to acquire, and may have a much higher individual upside because he has better physical tools. But as I've said, I don't want Wentz; too many flags there. A slightly cheaper lateral move only makes a minor amount of sense...you'd have to get a big discount on the contract (paying new guy like 7-8 million or something). Winston is brought up in the appreciation thread and he's a guy that makes sense financially, but I tend to think makes no sense paired with Kyle in real application (I think Kyle would go nuts). Stafford is going to require too much in trade compensation because I imagine his market is going to be huge if he's moved. 

4. Keep Jimmy, restructure, draft a guy in the first honestly makes no sense to me, but it's theoretically an option. I would have concerns with the FO if we went this route though. 

[Forge]

50 minutes ago, John232 said:

I mean, i don't want any restructuring either. Over it. would rather move on and reset our cap as best as we can while we re-sign new guys.  But considering the amount of turnover we're about to see in the secondary, I can see Jimmy...Ward being the "guy" to get restructured too. 

Another thing to consider is that Jimmy G really should have a pretty nice trade market. Lets say the big four go top 12. Trask and Jones I think will each get boosted into late first, very early second.

But there's so many teams picking after/around us and  in the mid-late first that don't really have any long term solution at QB OR they have huge question marks..and  they may not be able to get a young rookie to fill right now. I think there's more demand than Supply: 

• Indy,
• Chicago,,
• MInnesota,
• NE
• Detroit
• Steelers (Ben is awful now)
• Washington
• Atlanta
• Denver
• Tampa
• Saints
• Dallas (if they move on from Dak, obviously)..

I could see a lot of these teams end up more inclined to go with Jimmy G than a rookie. Money is obviously going to be a big factor in this...but idk..Jimmy on a down year should still be able to get a 2nd imo. At least a third. 

 

Indy makes a lot of sense and should be enticing for Jimmy to waive. It's a competitive team with a QB friendly system. I think that they make the most amount of sense for Wentz, but that's assuming that Philly has the guts to trade Wentz.

Chicago also makes a ton of sense. There's a part of me that wonders if they don't just run it back with Trubisky, and I can't believe I am saying that. He's played well against largely meh defenses, but you kind of just knew this was going to happen lol. When he was named starter for the GB game, I kind of joked about it. But this should be another enticing location and a team that he would waive to go to. 

Minnesota I think will stick with Cousins. They aren't all in, but I think that they are close to it. They don't need to go into a rebuild, so I don't think that they will. I think they will focus on improving the defense. It's not an ideal sport for any team to be in, admittedly. 

NE is definitely one. 

Detroit. I don't think he waives to go there (maybe if Saleh / McD go there), but honestly, I don't think that is something that the Lions would do. If they are rebooting / rebuilding, I think that they will take their shot on a rookie QB in this draft, especially since they would likely have 2 first round picks since they would have traded Stafford. So they take someone like Wilson with their original pick, grab BPA with whatever pick they got for Stafford. 

Steelers probably can't afford him. They are already in a tighter cap window and have to make moves to get compliant. JJSS and Dupree are possibly gone. they are either going to go ultra cheap vet to replace Ben (they should definitely cut Ben), or I think that they go rookie. A guy like Winston / Mariota would make a toooooooooooon of sense here, as would Darnold. 

Washington should be in on him. I have no idea if he'd waive to go there, but I've mentioned before that I'd be all in on Washington getting a good vet next year, especially if they win the division this year. That defense is elite. Jimmy has shown what he can do in that situation. He's an upgrade on Alex. 

Atlanta can't afford him. They don't save any money moving on from Matt Ryan. They can't have 30+ million in dead cap on Ryan + 24 million on Jimmy. Saints are same boat; they are 80 million above the cap in best case scenario. If Brees isn't back, the starter is eitehr Hill, or a rookie. It almost has to be because of their finances. 

Tampa and Dallas would obviously need their current guys gone, so we don't know about that yet. 

Denver should acquire another QB to compete with Lock. The team is good enough around the position that they become solid with a vet. Not good enough in a division with Mahomes, but they can't just give up because he's there lol. 

TL; DR: my potential trade partners with Jimmy would be: Indy, Chicago, NE, Washington, Denver. You can probably remove one based on wherever Stafford would end up if traded. 

[49ersfan]

I want one of Fields/Wilson/Lance with our top pick, take a toolsy rookie in UDFA to be our project QB/possible long-term backup. 

The backup QB market looks good this offseason. Potentially available - Dalton, Foles, Winston, Bridgewater, Mariota, Taylor, Brisset, Minshew, RG3, Keenu, Fitzpatrick, & Barkley. Get one of them 

Trade Jimmy, i'd hope we can get a day 2 pick for him still. Move on from Bethard. Mullens is out next season with tommy john injury, so he might just retire anyway

[N4L]

12 hours ago, N4L said:

Great post, but I'll break this part down a little further

Washington has 6 wins, the cowboys and giants have 5 wins, the eagles have 4 and a tie (which is better than a loss, meaning if they have the same amount of wins as another team, they will have one less loss and will draft after the other team). 

So if the giants, WFT, and cowboys get 6 wins and the eagles get 5 wins, then we will draft before the three that don't make the playoffs (if we dont win another game) 

The nfce teams only play themselves from now on.

Eagles play the cowboys, giants play the WFT 

We want the giants to beat Washington

It doesn't matter who wins between the eagles/cowboys, as long as the whichever of them loses, beats either the giants or the WFT in week 17 

the cowboys play the giants week 17. I'm thinking they will have a better chance to win that game rather than the eagles beating Washington

Actually, IDK where I saw that washington and the giants were playing this weekend. That isnt happening. Giants play the ravens and then the cowboys. 

So, we need the cowboys to beat the eagles this week, then the eagles to beat washington next week, and the giants to beat the cowboys week 17 to ensure we pick in front of all nfce teams

It would help if washington clinched this weekend and has nothing to play for week 17, that would be a big help to having the eagles beat them I think. 

[John232]

My latest mock. I think the key things to take away is i am anticipating: Jimmy G getting traded (lets just say for future picks in this case), Ku'ann, Verrett, Mosley, Trent Williams all re-sign. Ford stays on for one more year. Blair is brought back on a very cheap deal. Hyder is gone as a result of holding onto some consistency in the backfield. Tartt is gone as well as Marcell Harris. Juice is also a casualty. 

1. Zach Wilson QB

2. Asante Samuel Jr, CB

3. Elerson Smith: DE

4. Reed Blankship, S

5. Sadarius Hutcherson, IOL

6. Roger McCreary, CB 

7. James Empey, C - Worth noting, i think this something to expect even earlier. We need a center, he's a good one and he also plays at BYU with Mr. Wilson

8. Frank Darby, WR (played with Aiyuk)

9. Rakeem Boyd, RB. I think we see a much different RB room next year with Wilson and Mostert being the only holdovers. 

 

 

[Forge]

25 minutes ago, John232 said:

My latest mock. I think the key things to take away is i am anticipating: Jimmy G getting traded (lets just say for future picks in this case), Ku'ann, Verrett, Mosley, Trent Williams all re-sign. Ford stays on for one more year. Blair is brought back on a very cheap deal. Hyder is gone as a result of holding onto some consistency in the backfield. Tartt is gone as well as Marcell Harris. Juice is also a casualty. 

1. Zach Wilson QB

2. Asante Samuel Jr, CB

3. Elerson Smith: DE

4. Reed Blankship, S

5. Sadarius Hutcherson, IOL

6. Roger McCreary, CB 

7. James Empey, C - Worth noting, i think this something to expect even earlier. We need a center, he's a good one and he also plays at BYU with Mr. Wilson

8. Frank Darby, WR (played with Aiyuk)

9. Rakeem Boyd, RB. I think we see a much different RB room next year with Wilson and Mostert being the only holdovers. 

 

 

are you doing the draft via their player rankings, or the other needs based approach? I can never get the quarterbacks to fall where we are picking lol

[GW21]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

are you doing the draft via their player rankings, or the other needs based approach? I can never get the quarterbacks to fall where we are picking lol

I do the predictive board and its kind of hit and miss. I ran through one after reading this and they had Justin Fields going to Miami, so take that for what it’s worth haha.

[John232]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

are you doing the draft via their player rankings, or the other needs based approach? I can never get the quarterbacks to fall where we are picking lol

I'm using TDN's predictive mocks. They also have a pretty bad bug in their system that I think is related to cookies. But if you basically hit restart draft enough, you will get some wild wild drafts. Like Micah Parsons going first, followed by Surtain. Weird stuff. 

This draft was 100% as a result of an unlikely draft or bug. There is 0 chance the Jets go with Jamar Chase over Wilson/Fields, so you can easily sub out Trey Lance for Wilson here. 

[John232]

Also, on a side note. If I was TDN, I would be moving mountains to bring in the individual responsible for Spotracs design and UI/UX. If they could incorporate actual player roster into "Mock GMing an off-season" that would be so much fun. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

 

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

Good game to attend

[Forge]

What our scouts got to see: