Forge Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I've never done in depth statistical analysis on something like this for QBs in the past, but the 30/40/50 split on Mac Jones / Smith really kind of bugs me and I don't know why. I don't know if it's super atypical or not...it's just....it seems like a lot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, Forge said: I've never done in depth statistical analysis on something like this for QBs in the past, but the 30/40/50 split on Mac Jones / Smith really kind of bugs me and I don't know why. I don't know if it's super atypical or not...it's just....it seems like a lot? 30/40/50? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, CWood21 said: Aside from the fact that they both were relatively obscure from a draft perspective coming into their final year and they're both QBs, they really aren't that similar. Joe Burrow was LSU's offense. He was the trigger man for one of the best offenses in CFB history. He's got a better arm then Jones, better accuracy, etc. There's a reason why Mac Jones isn't getting top 10 love. And I'll give you a hint, it isn't because people are all sleeping on him. Mac Jones is a high floor-low ceiling kind of guy. He's anywhere between Chad Pennington as a floor or Matt Ryan as a ceiling. He may never be a top 5 QB in the NFL except maybe just 1-2 years, but he's got all the intangibles you look for. Physically, he's average. Athleticially, he's average. Arm, he's average. But he's smart, tough, a leader and a pretty accurate passer with good mechanics. That being said, I wouldn't take Jones before the 30th pick. Edited January 28, 2021 by scar988 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, scar988 said: 30/40/50? Over 30% of his pass attempts, over 40% of his yards and over 50% of his TDs went to Smith. That seems like a flag, but honestly, I don't know. I've never looked into that kind breakdown before with that kind of volume and it's somewhat rare that you have a high level QB with a high level receiver like that. The sample is somewhat limited I think. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 hours ago, jrry32 said: Sounds like that was leaked by a team trying to hurt his stock. Is that confirmed or just an opinion? I don't know much about the kid's personality, just watched him play. I don't think I've ever heard him mutter a word TBH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Forge said: How late is late? I'm not completely out on Mond but he may go in like round 5 or something? So maybe Franks is the better answer. I agree w/ Mond but Franks... that dude is a lost cause IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I could see someone molding Ehlinger into a solid back-up, fringe starter. I guess that might be the best we can hope for w/ a QB drafted that late in most scenarios. I understand there are exceptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 hours ago, tyler735 said: Both were massive parts of their offense. LSU had exceptional talent on offense. Justin Jefferson, Jamarr Chase, and Terrance Marshall are all legit NFL talents. Jefferson and Chase likely will be high end WR's in the NFL. How many people legitimately had Justin Jefferson as a top 10 prospect coming out of LSU? I didn't. I thought he'd be good, but I didn't think he'd be this good this quick. He was arguably a top 10 WR this year. He was always the "other" WR at LSU. Terrance Marshall is a good WR, but he's not nearly as good as Chase or Jefferson. But there's more to it then just WRs. Najee Harris is better than CEH. The Alabama OL is significantly better than LSU's. Thaddeus Moss might have been one of the more overrated prospects in last year's draft. And there's the coaching aspect that is being ignored. When was the last time Saban got mediocre QB production? Probably back when Jalen Hurts was the starting QB early in his career. I mean, Saban won a National Championship with Jake Coker as his starting QB. 11 hours ago, tyler735 said: As for the draft, we will have to wait and see, but I'll be surprised if Mac Jones isn't drafted higher than some pundits have predicted. I'd also mention that both Kiper and McShay think he could work his way up into the top 10. That's not what I'm arguing, so let's not make this mistake. Where he's going to be drafted is going to be much higher than where he should be drafted. If a team wants to use a top 10 pick on him, all the power to them. Doesn't mean it's a good idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 hours ago, tyler735 said: It doesn't go without saying. I've seen these types of QB's taken round 1 several times. Just off the top of my head guys like, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Jordan Love come to mind. I'm sure their are several others, but I honestly don't care that much to look it up right now. The way you lumped Jordan Love in with Jake Locker and Josh Freeman is borderline criminal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: I could see someone molding Ehlinger into a solid back-up, fringe starter. I guess that might be the best we can hope for w/ a QB drafted that late in most scenarios. I understand there are exceptions. Ehlinger is Taysom Hill all over again... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 hours ago, CWood21 said: Ehlinger is Taysom Hill all over again... You think he's that tough? Hill is just another world with his toughness for a QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyler735 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 hours ago, CWood21 said: The way you lumped Jordan Love in with Jake Locker and Josh Freeman is borderline criminal. In hindsight sure it may be if Love pans out. How they were viewed by most as prospects. No, it's not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyler735 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 hours ago, CWood21 said: How many people legitimately had Justin Jefferson as a top 10 prospect coming out of LSU? I didn't. I thought he'd be good, but I didn't think he'd be this good this quick. He was arguably a top 10 WR this year. He was always the "other" WR at LSU. Terrance Marshall is a good WR, but he's not nearly as good as Chase or Jefferson. But there's more to it then just WRs. Najee Harris is better than CEH. The Alabama OL is significantly better than LSU's. Thaddeus Moss might have been one of the more overrated prospects in last year's draft. And there's the coaching aspect that is being ignored. When was the last time Saban got mediocre QB production? Probably back when Jalen Hurts was the starting QB early in his career. I mean, Saban won a National Championship with Jake Coker as his starting QB. That's still potentially 3 first round picks at WR he played with, and regardless, we now know just how good Jefferson is. Doesn't really help the Burrow narrative here. It's splitting hairs, both offenses were so far beyond their competition, and it showed. 7 hours ago, CWood21 said: That's not what I'm arguing, so let's not make this mistake. Where he's going to be drafted is going to be much higher than where he should be drafted. If a team wants to use a top 10 pick on him, all the power to them. Doesn't mean it's a good idea. That's where we disagree, I think it's a great idea for a team. Guess we will have to wait and see how he does. Because I'm seeing a QB with excellent accuracy, touch, decision making, and an advanced ability to read a defense at the college level. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 hours ago, Forge said: Over 30% of his pass attempts, over 40% of his yards and over 50% of his TDs went to Smith. That seems like a flag, but honestly, I don't know. I've never looked into that kind breakdown before with that kind of volume and it's somewhat rare that you have a high level QB with a high level receiver like that. The sample is somewhat limited I think. I mean, we see this with some NFL teams. Sometimes, a dude is just a QB's favorite. Also, Smith just had a ridiculous season. Is this any different than Stafford throwing to Calvin in Detroit during Calvin's best year? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyler735 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: You think he's that tough? Hill is just another world with his toughness for a QB I don't see it. Maybe the poor man's Walmart version of Taysom Hill, but Sam Ehlinger is nowhere near as explosive or strong. Taysom Hill ran a 4.44 40 time, last I saw of Ehlinger was a 4.8 40 time, he may have gotten faster since that time, but nowhere near Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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