The Carr dilemma in 2021

[Bitty 2.0]

4 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I feel the exact same way.  All I asked is what people think the trade value is for both players assuming Mariota plays well the final two games.  Then a couple people start saying how stupid we are for still wanting to trade Carr.  Gruden would probably want to trade Carr before I do if Mariota plays well.

Carr isn't going anywhere they are trading Marioto.

Remember last week when everybody was called Gruden and Mayock idiots for singing him. I do

[ronjon1990]

7 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

I have no idea how people don’t see what is wrong with this franchise: the defense has been a joke for a long time. Defense sucked even during the Mack days. The raiders offense and Carr have been one of the better units in the league. Yet, we have all these people saying there’s a chilling with Carr. How can people say that, when the defense has always been trash lol. Oline has been banged up and our top rookie hasn’t produced much.. people funny 😆 

That's the best part of it- Because Ruggs was our top pick, people automatically believe his lack of production comes from a proven veteran as if DHB was never a thing here. 

When people immediately tout totally unproven rookies as our best players and blame their lack of production on other players, I then know their draft knowledge and understanding  doesn't leave the old Madden days of uploading a draft class of created players from the NCAA counterpart.

[ronjon1990]

8 minutes ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

Carr isn't going anywhere they are trading Marioto.

Remember last week when everybody was called Gruden and Mayock idiots for singing him. I do

People called them idiots for signing him to an absurd and totally untradeable contract, which they are idiots for doing.

That short of a deal for that much money is the thing idiots do. It doesn't lock him up long term, puts us in bad negotiating position if he plays and plays well, and will net us nothing on the trade market.

Edited December 21, 2020 by ronjon1990

[NCOUGHMAN]

3 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

That's the best part of it- Because Ruggs was our top pick, people automatically believe his lack of production comes from a proven veteran as if DHB was never a thing here. 

When people immediately tout totally unproven rookies as our best players and blame their lack of production on other players, I then know their draft knowledge and understanding  doesn't leave the old Madden days of uploading a draft class of created players from the NCAA counterpart.

That’s who some of the carrdasians wanted in the draft. I knew this would happen. You don’t take projects in the 1st rd. Put all your hope into a 5”11 180 wr lol now y’all mad but you got exactly who you wanted and he’s lightweight busting his rookie year. How many games has hr3 missed this year so far? Hard to develop chemistry when you aren’t available.

[NCOUGHMAN]

5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

People called them idiots for signing him to an absurd and totally untradeable contract, which they are idiots for doing.

That short of a deal for that much money is the thing idiots do. It doesn't lock him up long term, puts us in bad negotiating position of he plays and plays well, and will net us nothing on the trade market.

I like mm almost 10inch sized paws vs Carr’s size 9’s. Kiss 80% of the qb fumbles away.

[big_palooka]

To me, it's all economics of building a roster. If MM does well the last 2 games (assuming he starts), I have him for another year at 10 mil. 

I trade Carr for a 2 and 3, maybe get a 1. Free up some space to invest in the defense. 

This offense is talented and MM adds a dimension it currently doesn't have. The offense would still be good with him starting. Gruden likes a run first approach, MM and the RPO plays he can use with Jacobs would fit nicely.

The Raiders are not winning games with Derek Carr right now. How many games do you loose trading him?

[MrOaktown_56]

49 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

To me, it's all economics of building a roster. If MM does well the last 2 games (assuming he starts), I have him for another year at 10 mil. 

I trade Carr for a 2 and 3, maybe get a 1. Free up some space to invest in the defense. 

This offense is talented and MM adds a dimension it currently doesn't have. The offense would still be good with him starting. Gruden likes a run first approach, MM and the RPO plays he can use with Jacobs would fit nicely.

The Raiders are not winning games with Derek Carr right now. How many games do you loose trading him?

I think this would be pretty risky. Is the 10 mil worth it is really the question.

Mariota has shown flashes of excellent play, but has also struggled long term as a starter. That being said, maybe this is the perfect fit for him, but I'd rather keep him and Carr next year so he can serve as a contingency plan for if things don't work out.

I feel like trading Carr now might be counterproductive. We finally played KC close for the first time in a very long time and to get rid of him now when he is playing at a career level for anything less than a big reward seems like poor management. 

Now if we're talking 1st round pick and more, then I'd be interested. But flipping him for a 3rd after Mariota playing 3 good games seems ridiculously premature. I could see Gruden trying to force it, but those are the kinds of moves that losing franchises make (which we currently are LOL).

My other worry is, can Mariota develop Ruggs full potential. If Mariota can truly throw downfield with velocity and touch for the first time in his career, I will be a lot more open to the possibility of moving on.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I think this would be pretty risky. Is the 10 mil worth it is really the question.

Mariota has shown flashes of excellent play, but has also struggled long term as a starter. That being said, maybe this is the perfect fit for him, but I'd rather keep him and Carr next year so he can serve as a contingency plan for if things don't work out.

I feel like trading Carr now might be counterproductive. We finally played KC close for the first time in a very long time and to get rid of him now when he is playing at a career level for anything less than a big reward seems like poor management. 

Now if we're talking 1st round pick and more, then I'd be interested. But flipping him for a 3rd after Mariota playing 3 good games seems ridiculously premature. I could see Gruden trying to force it, but those are the kinds of moves that losing franchises make (which we currently are LOL).

My other worry is, can Mariota develop Ruggs full potential. If Mariota can truly throw downfield with velocity and touch for the first time in his career, I will be a lot more open to the possibility of moving on.

It would be counterproductive. Nothing Carr has done renders him easily replaceable. At the same time, he happens to lack the accolades that will net something big enough to justify it. The Chiefs ultimately gave up like 2 2nds for Alex Smith. While Carr has arguably been statistically superior, Smith's later years under Harbaugh are what increased his value. Even then I thought they gave up too much, though having a coach like Andy Reid slightly lowers the gamble. I don't see a proven HC of that caliber taking over a QB needy team in 2021. The others arguably already have a guy in place. A first timer HC and/or embattled or new GM would be crazy to make a trade like that imo. 

So to trade him, we likely wouldn't receive his value and we'd be hoping someone picks up Gruden's O exceptionally quickly before we start losing FAs and retirees. There just wouldn't be a reward high enough (in reality) to do so. 

Even if there was, I don't trust Grudock's drafting skills enough to say "oh, nifty extra picks make up for not having a QB." Nothing they've accomplished thus far warrants that kind of trust. Mayock strikes me as the guy who would blow a top-10 pick on Shane Buechele if "he was the highest rated QB on our board". The draft is always a crapshoot, and addition by subtraction rarely works without years of stockpiling (see: Miami). 

You're absolutely correct on both fronts- it would be poor management and counterproductive to move the lynchpin of the offense and screw with the chemistry that is there now in favor of a hope and prayer. 

[BayRaider]

Sometimes you have to take a chance. Only way Carr would get traded is if Mariota balls out these next two games in a row, which even I admit, isn't that likely. And even then, the trade would require careful consideration by Mayock and Gruden. But they'd at least have to consider it deeply, and they will.

In that situation, you have Mariota on a 10M 1 year deal, and a year tryout (maybe he pulls a Tannehil), and we can draft Zach Wilson or Trey Lance in the draft with our 1st. I like this QB class even more than last year TBH. Like, I don't dislike any of the Top 5 QB Prospects. Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Wilson, and Trask. Don't think that has ever happened before.

If Mariota struggles, we could still keep Carr and draft one of those QB's.

No DT or S is worth a Top 15 pick this year in my opinion. It'd be another reach which I am sick of.

[SilverNBlackFan]

Haven't put much thought into whether I would or wouldn't trade Carr, but let's not overrate playing KC tough this year as a reason why we shouldn't. Chiefs have had like 5 or 6 one score games this year, including games QBd by Drew Lock and Bridgewater. Great team but they're not exactly blowing people out the water like the 07 Pat's.

Yeah we beat them, and that is a great accomplishment. But we ain't nowhere close to competing with them. 

[BayRaider]

23 minutes ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Haven't put much thought into whether I would or wouldn't trade Carr, but let's not overrate playing KC tough this year as a reason why we shouldn't. Chiefs have had like 5 or 6 one score games this year, including games QBd by Drew Lock and Bridgewater. Great team but they're not exactly blowing people out the water like the 07 Pat's.

Yeah we beat them, and that is a great accomplishment. But we ain't nowhere close to competing with them. 

Yeah we played them so many times, we were eventually going to compete. Doesn't mean we are anywhere close to their level, and they will probably re-adjust next year against us.

[CaribouLou]

7 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Personally I think one of the reasons for our offensive success is because teams were respecting the back-end cause of Ruggs for a good part of the season. 
 

Have you guys seen the Chiefs without Tyreek Hill and Texans without Will Fuller in 2019? Entirely different teams, and fairly easy to shutdown. Offenses went from Top 3 Offenses to like Middle of the Pack. 
 

I think teams ended up stopping their respect for Ruggs, because Carr never throws to him. It’s basically back to teams playing Carr the way they did in 2017-2019. And it’s more on Carr than Gruden. 

Ruggs opening up the field is a myth, Carr is gonna be going to TE's more than WR's anyway. He could have Hopkins and Adams at WR and still go to Foster Moreau or a TE more than them.

[BayRaider]

2 minutes ago, CaribouLou said:

Ruggs opening up the field is a myth, Carr is gonna be going to TE's more than WR's anyway. He could have Hopkins and Adams at WR and still go to Foster Moreau or a TE more than them.

The Intermediate game has clearly been more workable since Ruggs was drafted.

[big_palooka]

12 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I think this would be pretty risky. Is the 10 mil worth it is really the question.

Mariota has shown flashes of excellent play, but has also struggled long term as a starter. That being said, maybe this is the perfect fit for him, but I'd rather keep him and Carr next year so he can serve as a contingency plan for if things don't work out.

I feel like trading Carr now might be counterproductive. We finally played KC close for the first time in a very long time and to get rid of him now when he is playing at a career level for anything less than a big reward seems like poor management. 

Now if we're talking 1st round pick and more, then I'd be interested. But flipping him for a 3rd after Mariota playing 3 good games seems ridiculously premature. I could see Gruden trying to force it, but those are the kinds of moves that losing franchises make (which we currently are LOL).

My other worry is, can Mariota develop Ruggs full potential. If Mariota can truly throw downfield with velocity and touch for the first time in his career, I will be a lot more open to the possibility of moving on.

I'd take Mariota at 10 mil over Carr at 22 knowing I'll still get my 7-9 wins next year. And have money to allocate to defense. 

I'd only trade Carr for the right package of draft picks (granted I have no faith in this organization to use them correctly)

All hypothetical. I don't believe it would happen nor do I actually think this crew can sign/trade/draft for the right players anyway. That's why I think this is at best a 7-9 win team with or with out Carr. 

[MrOaktown_56]

8 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

I'd take Mariota at 10 mil over Carr at 22 knowing I'll still get my 7-9 wins next year. And have money to allocate to defense. 

I'd only trade Carr for the right package of draft picks (granted I have no faith in this organization to use them correctly)

All hypothetical. I don't believe it would happen nor do I actually think this crew can sign/trade/draft for the right players anyway. That's why I think this is at best a 7-9 win team with or with out Carr. 

I think this is pretty fair.

This team will only get over the hump if they can finally pressure with 4 and/or add an elite player to this defense.