The Carr dilemma in 2021

[jimkelly02]

Mariota wasnt amazing as a passer, yes he had some nice passing plays but a lot of his “success” came from running.  We all know running QBs can go down on any given week play.  Also, was I the only one who was scared to death and slightly excited on every play?  In the end Mariota’s lack of accuracy caused the int at the end. His passing accuracy has always been his downfall.  Sure he had done flash in the pan early success but this game was symbolic of his entire career. This isn’t all negative... he really impressed me, albeit I didn’t expect much from him.  We just need to remove emotions and look at the big picture.  Also money figures into this decision.

up until a few weeks ago carr was the man and having his best season.  The run game went to ****e and the OL play dropped .... the defense is garbage.... he’s lost a lot of WR to injury and Covid.  

it’d take a lot from Mariota to replace Carr. And even then we’d likely be drafting a QB and only using MM as a 1-2 year placeholder.

best scenario in my humble opinion is we extend carr at a good price.  Bridgewater gets 21M, Alex Smith 23.5M, rivers/Brady/Brees 25M, carr had a 25.05m contact, garropolo/ brissett/ Stanford are getting 27-28M.

id like to extend Carr for 3yrs at between 23-27M.... it’ll all depend on what happens next.  At that price we can afford to build up the defense once we shed all the wasted cap space we’ve spent the last 2 years and add a Solid WR to replace what T.Williams should have given us.

carr had a really good season with a decent OL that often had period of struggling and a average at best running game and below average receiver help.  Sure Waller, Renfrow, and Agholor played well but we had period were we clearly lacked talent on the field.... and to be honest Wallers role became the high volume short distance Main target when he should be used downfield deeper. 

if we improve the OL and add a WR.... and fix the scheme a bit... Ruggs develops and Agholor is retained..... Carr can succeed and make the playoffs behind a average defense.

on another note.... I don’t think Mariota is that Tradeable.  First his salary is 10.1M next year.  No team besides us and Indy is willing to backup that much money, not to mention if the cap drops substantially to 175M or so that makes it nearly impossible for a team to afford a 10M backup.  So you’d need to find a team who wants Mariota to be the starter.  Only chance that happens is if they’re drafting a 1st round QB and need a 1yr rental.  Even if Mariota plays well the rest of the season I don’t see us getting more than a 4th for him.

[drfrey13]

5 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

1. I'm not knocking Mariota at all. He was drafted to Tennessee prior to them having talent around him. As for fit, I questioned that as well when they took him. And no, they didn't do him any favors.

That being said, Mariota's career tape is nowhere near Carr's. While a lot of that could very well be TBD, somone using the lack of surrounding talent in defense of Carr is simply not equitable to using a similar defense of Mariota, which the original post seems to insinuate. Fit or not, Carr's worst season would still be one of Mariota's best to-date. The end result there is that, fit, talent level of supporting cast, coaching and everything else aside, Carr earned the right to be defended for the Raiders having a lack of talent around him. Mariota has not. That's not a knock on Mariota, just a fact for now. 

2. You can't look at it in that much of a vaccum. At that rate, the product we put on the field in regulation would practically rank in the top 5 defenses, and it objectively wasn't. Our defense was inarguably aided by an absurd drive that began with roughly 2 minutes left in the 3rd and slogged all the way to about 6 minutes remaining in the 4th. That means, at one point in the game, in regulation, our defense sat on the sidelines for nearly an entire quarter of game time. Then, another 7 in OT. On just two occasions, the defense sat and watched how real football is played for 18 minutes of a 70 minute football game. That's just on 2 possessions. 

What we did in regulation was a testament to playing ball control offense, not the defense playing well. They didn't. If you play the vaccum game, if we held a team to -1 yds and a 3 & out on the first drive of a game, we fielded one of the greatest defenses of all time for that possession. That's just silly. 

Sorry I misunderstood what you were saying.  What I meant for the defense is that it did what it was suppose to do.  We have a ball control offense and the defense needs to limit the other offense.  By comparison the Colts had nine drives and put 44 points.  Now there are other factors contributing to this like the pick six and the Chargers missing field goals but on the missed FG drives the defense played well outside of the Ekler and Hebert runs.  The defense did much better than before and was not the reason why we lost.  The excuses part was in reference to Frankie saying let the injury excuses begin about Mariota not being able to win on Thursday or that is how I took it.  

[drfrey13]

4 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Mariota wasnt amazing as a passer, yes he had some nice passing plays but a lot of his “success” came from running.  We all know running QBs can go down on any given week play.  Also, was I the only one who was scared to death and slightly excited on every play?  In the end Mariota’s lack of accuracy caused the int at the end. His passing accuracy has always been his downfall.  Sure he had done flash in the pan early success but this game was symbolic of his entire career. This isn’t all negative... he really impressed me, albeit I didn’t expect much from him.  We just need to remove emotions and look at the big picture.  Also money figures into this decision.

up until a few weeks ago carr was the man and having his best season.  The run game went to ****e and the OL play dropped .... the defense is garbage.... he’s lost a lot of WR to injury and Covid.  

it’d take a lot from Mariota to replace Carr. And even then we’d likely be drafting a QB and only using MM as a 1-2 year placeholder.

best scenario in my humble opinion is we extend carr at a good price.  Bridgewater gets 21M, Alex Smith 23.5M, rivers/Brady/Brees 25M, carr had a 25.05m contact, garropolo/ brissett/ Stanford are getting 27-28M.

id like to extend Carr for 3yrs at between 23-27M.... it’ll all depend on what happens next.  At that price we can afford to build up the defense once we shed all the wasted cap space we’ve spent the last 2 years and add a Solid WR to replace what T.Williams should have given us.

carr had a really good season with a decent OL that often had period of struggling and a average at best running game and below average receiver help.  Sure Waller, Renfrow, and Agholor played well but we had period were we clearly lacked talent on the field.... and to be honest Wallers role became the high volume short distance Main target when he should be used downfield deeper. 

if we improve the OL and add a WR.... and fix the scheme a bit... Ruggs develops and Agholor is retained..... Carr can succeed and make the playoffs behind a average defense.

on another note.... I don’t think Mariota is that Tradeable.  First his salary is 10.1M next year.  No team besides us and Indy is willing to backup that much money, not to mention if the cap drops substantially to 175M or so that makes it nearly impossible for a team to afford a 10M backup.  So you’d need to find a team who wants Mariota to be the starter.  Only chance that happens is if they’re drafting a 1st round QB and need a 1yr rental.  Even if Mariota plays well the rest of the season I don’t see us getting more than a 4th for him.

First off let me say Carr is a far better QB than Mariota.  Second my biggest take away from the game is seeing how much better this offense can be when the QB is decisive on running and Gruden is more aggressive.  I know some of the runs Mariota made would cause Carr to pull a Hammy if even thought about it but a lot of those runs are about just picking up 3-4 yards instead of waiting and throwing the ball away.  It really lessens the chances of our drives stalling and gives the defense more rest.  It is an upward spiral and will have a big impact on games.  I like what Mariota did for the most part but the INT was painful.  We should not have been passing in that situation either.  If the o-line could run block we could have easily just kept running the ball and eating up the clock.  Even if we do not score a TD if we just run the clock down and pick up 1 first down the game is over with a short FG.

[NCOUGHMAN]

3 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Sure. But that was a snowball of errors and the OL got destroyed it that game.

Carr’s tiny hands hurt his game so much it’s almost like you have to live with the fumbles

[MrOaktown_56]

3 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Carr’s tiny hands hurt his game so much it’s almost like you have to live with the fumbles

Absolutely. It was pretty frustrating. But like for the vast majority of the season, defense, run blocking (ugh), and gruden are to blame for most of our failures.

[big_palooka]

Carr has played well this season as he should 3 years into Gruden's offense. He still leaves a lot of plays on the field. His deep ball is not great and he's a fumble waiting to happen every time he's touched. 11 on the year! We saw him revert back to the skittish, panicked player in the pocket against Atlanta. They got a good hit on him early and he start playing sporadic. I believe that is who Carr is. A guy if you hit him early and often, he will deteriorate. Hence the insanely over compensated Oline. 

I like Carr, but I do not see him ever leading this team deep into the playoffs personally. His play in December has tailed off every year. And I do not understand his affliction with getting WRs involved more regularly in the offense. 

If a team would trade high draft picks for Carr, I'd be inclined to listen. He's played amongst the top 10 QBs this season, but I still find his game frustrating for stretches at a time and I can't see him getting the team over the hump.

Does that mean I'm all in on Mariota, no. He's got a lot to prove and come back from in his own right. But I do think Mariota fits more of what Jon Gruden wants in his QB as dual threat and given time could run the offense well at a cheaper price tag.

If I can trade Carr for a high draft pick or 2 that I can flip into defensive talent with the cap savings, I'd be inclined to take that. Not popular opinion, but that's where I stand.

[dante9876]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

Carr has played well this season as he should 3 years into Gruden's offense. He still leaves a lot of plays on the field. His deep ball is not great and he's a fumble waiting to happen every time he's touched. 11 on the year! We saw him revert back to the skittish, panicked player in the pocket against Atlanta. They got a good hit on him early and he start playing sporadic. I believe that is who Carr is. A guy if you hit him early and often, he will deteriorate. Hence the insanely over compensated Oline. 

I like Carr, but I do not see him ever leading this team deep into the playoffs personally. His play in December has tailed off every year. And I do not understand his affliction with getting WRs involved more regularly in the offense. 

If a team would trade high draft picks for Carr, I'd be inclined to listen. He's played amongst the top 10 QBs this season, but I still find his game frustrating for stretches at a time and I can't see him getting the team over the hump.

Does that mean I'm all in on Mariota, no. He's got a lot to prove and come back from in his own right. But I do think Mariota fits more of what Jon Gruden wants in his QB as dual threat and given time could run the offense well at a cheaper price tag.

If I can trade Carr for a high draft pick or 2 that I can flip into defensive talent with the cap savings, I'd be inclined to take that. Not popular opinion, but that's where I stand.

I agree with some of this. Don't see it happening though. My issue is the amount of resources we have to put into the oline to make him comfortable. People think they going to move on from trent and jackson..I don't see it. Carr absolutely needs them. If he doesn't trust his oline we are screwed. 

[Rolni]

The issue with the Carr trade talk is he is on the record saying that he will retire rather then playing for any other team. 

I know it is business and all that, but with the money he already made and the fact that he will easily get a media gig IMO as his brother did I can see that he make a "martyr" from himself and never play another donw elsewhere...if he is determined to do so, he will basically force Grudock's hand to either ride with him or to cut him straight. 

I think Carr is here at least till the end of his current deal. I think Grudock will try to build up the roster and get his successor in place and let him ride into the sunset in 2022, IF they want to part ways...

 

 

IF Carr is willing to play elsewhere one idea hit me just now:

-Mike Mayock ranked Sam Darnold as his QB1

-Jets might be moving on from Sam via trade

-Carr might be interested in the New York market

-if the new coaching staff is appealing for Carr he might be willing to be a stop gap there to kick start his media carrier in the NY market later

-make the Carr-Darnold trade with some additional chips if needed

-the new Jets FO gets a veteran QB, who can start in 2021 in front of the rookie QB (might not be a great idea with that Jets OL, but that is another question...)

-Gruden gets a young, but not rookie QB, who has all the tools, but need a restart

-Mariota can start in 2021, then Darnold could be Gruden's QB for the next decade... 

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, dante9876 said:

I agree with some of this. Don't see it happening though. My issue is the amount of resources we have to put into the oline to make him comfortable. People think they going to move on from trent and jackson..I don't see it. Carr absolutely needs them. If he doesn't trust his oline we are screwed. 

Which to me is a problem. The Raiders have the 2nd highest paid Oline in football currently: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/offensive-line/ And 3rd highest going into 2021.

However, they are middle of the road currently. They've struggled in the run game and have been down right miserable in goal to go and short yardage duties.

Further, saying Carr "absolutely needs them" is accurate, all QBs need protection but can you build a younger cheaper line and allocate money to defense maybe? 

[SBXISBXVSBXVIII]

6 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

First off let me say Carr is a far better QB than Mariota.  Second my biggest take away from the game is seeing how much better this offense can be when the QB is decisive on running and Gruden is more aggressive.  I know some of the runs Mariota made would cause Carr to pull a Hammy if even thought about it but a lot of those runs are about just picking up 3-4 yards instead of waiting and throwing the ball away.  It really lessens the chances of our drives stalling and gives the defense more rest.  It is an upward spiral and will have a big impact on games.  I like what Mariota did for the most part but the INT was painful.  We should not have been passing in that situation either.  If the o-line could run block we could have easily just kept running the ball and eating up the clock.  Even if we do not score a TD if we just run the clock down and pick up 1 first down the game is over with a short FG.

Or groin

[oakdb36]

Let's trade the starting QB and hire a new OC. Better hope our D becomes dominant overnight or you're looking at the #1 overall pick in 2022.

[agarcia34]

I said this before. You cannot extend Carr after this season. It would be a idiotic thing to do and even more so after you just saw a QB come in with little to no practice time and have success. 
 

Idk if Carr is the QB next year. I think all things point to it but I think he saw what we all saw on Thursday and that’s why he is pushing hard to come back and play on Saturday. 
 

Again extending Carr would be dumb when right now he gives you so much flexibility cause of that contract. Why give that away when you don’t have to 

Edited December 21, 2020 by agarcia34

[big_palooka]

52 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Let's trade the starting QB and hire a new OC. Better hope our D becomes dominant overnight or you're looking at the #1 overall pick in 2022.

Possibly. At least you took the shot and flamed out. Vs. playing safe, .500 football and going no place anyway. 

[oakdb36]

8 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Possibly. At least you took the shot and flamed out. Vs. playing safe, .500 football and going no place anyway. 

I'd rather try to fix the very obvious weakness before i start messing with something that's working and trending in the right direction.

[NCOUGHMAN]

7 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Possibly. At least you took the shot and flamed out. Vs. playing safe, .500 football and going no place anyway. 

This sad to say but .500 isn’t life tired of being stuck at .500. All or nothing