The Carr dilemma in 2021

[ronjon1990]

2 hours ago, Justwinning said:

Joyner was signed to be one of our main contributors on defense and has underwhelmed. For that contract, he's a bust. You don't pay him the money he makes in order for him to be a stopgap. A stopgap is someone like Nevin Lawson, but I'm glad we can get out of Joyner's deal this offseason with little dead money. Collins, prior to being placed on IR, has been really bad. As for Littleton, I don't see how him being out of position causes him to make him miss tackles. It's been frustrating to watch these guys underperform. The young guys give me hope, however.

Yeah Joyner's 4 yr 42m contract was meant to be a key cog. That's not stopgap money. That's "we got a stud" money...

[ronjon1990]

That we're even discussing Zach Wilson as an immediate replacement for Carr in 2021 is patently absurd. 

He has talent, but Coastal Carolina also just whipped the dogshti out of him and made him look very average against his only "solid" competition to-date this year. 

And some are actually advocating for a rookie QB who currently operates a very simple playbook to come in and take over Gruden's notoriously difficult playbook? 

Again, he's not a bum, but his opponent W/L record currently stands at 44-42, with an average performance against 10-0 CCU and a decent but far from spectacular performance against a 4-1 Boise team playing their 4th string QB. The bulk of his production has come against 3-3 Houston, 2-10 Texas State, 0-4 North Alabama, and 5-3 Louisiana Tech. And sure, Covid screwed their schedule a bit, but he was a 2382yd 11-9 62% passer last year. This year, he's put up a good stat line and looks good, but he's essentially playing a Conference USA/Sun Belt schedule and threw up hige lines against far inferior competition. Outside of those 4 huge days, he's 116/164 (70%) for 1739 yds and a 12-3 TD/INT ratio. It's not a bad line for 6 games, but a far cry from his overall 195/267 (73%) 2964 yd 27-3 stat line against marginal competition overall. 

I know that gets extremely nitpicky and you can't necessarily paint an entire picture by separating huge statistical days from others, but to even consider him right now as a "franchise" NFL QB is just absurd. He's a 1-hit wonder at QB right now playing at some of the lowest level of competition without previous seasons as evidence of consistency. His performance against Coastal Carolina looked more like that of his 2019 starts, which included better competition than the 2020 slate of games. Go figure, the first real competition for him this year and he looks stunningly average again. 

Jettison Carr for that? No thanks. Draft him and develop him behind Carr? Sure. But short of that is nothing less than buying into low level hype and totally worm-brained. 

[Jerry]

3 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

That we're even discussing Zach Wilson as an immediate replacement for Carr in 2021 is patently absurd. 

He has talent, but Coastal Carolina also just whipped the dogshti out of him and made him look very average against his only "solid" competition to-date this year. 

And some are actually advocating for a rookie QB who currently operates a very simple playbook to come in and take over Gruden's notoriously difficult playbook? 

Again, he's not a bum, but his opponent W/L record currently stands at 44-42, with an average performance against 10-0 CCU and a decent but far from spectacular performance against a 4-1 Boise team playing their 4th string QB. The bulk of his production has come against 3-3 Houston, 2-10 Texas State, 0-4 North Alabama, and 5-3 Louisiana Tech. And sure, Covid screwed their schedule a bit, but he was a 2382yd 11-9 62% passer last year. This year, he's put up a good stat line and looks good, but he's essentially playing a Conference USA/Sun Belt schedule and threw up hige lines against far inferior competition. Outside of those 4 huge days, he's 116/164 (70%) for 1739 yds and a 12-3 TD/INT ratio. It's not a bad line for 6 games, but a far cry from his overall 195/267 (73%) 2964 yd 27-3 stat line against marginal competition overall. 

I know that gets extremely nitpicky and you can't necessarily paint an entire picture by separating huge statistical days from others, but to even consider him right now as a "franchise" NFL QB is just absurd. He's a 1-hit wonder at QB right now playing at some of the lowest level of competition without previous seasons as evidence of consistency. His performance against Coastal Carolina looked more like that of his 2019 starts, which included better competition than the 2020 slate of games. Go figure, the first real competition for him this year and he looks stunningly average again. 

Jettison Carr for that? No thanks. Draft him and develop him behind Carr? Sure. But short of that is nothing less than buying into low level hype and totally worm-brained. 

And a chink in the armor (armor = mock offseason by @Rich7sena) appears.  I don't follow college football enough to really make an educated mock offseason, but I definitely don't want us drafting/signing a QB that requires a great deal of draft capital or salary cap space.  I need the Raiders to get me a FS and a pass rushing DT.

[MrOaktown_56]

12 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

That we're even discussing Zach Wilson as an immediate replacement for Carr in 2021 is patently absurd. 

He has talent, but Coastal Carolina also just whipped the dogshti out of him and made him look very average against his only "solid" competition to-date this year. 

And some are actually advocating for a rookie QB who currently operates a very simple playbook to come in and take over Gruden's notoriously difficult playbook? 

Again, he's not a bum, but his opponent W/L record currently stands at 44-42, with an average performance against 10-0 CCU and a decent but far from spectacular performance against a 4-1 Boise team playing their 4th string QB. The bulk of his production has come against 3-3 Houston, 2-10 Texas State, 0-4 North Alabama, and 5-3 Louisiana Tech. And sure, Covid screwed their schedule a bit, but he was a 2382yd 11-9 62% passer last year. This year, he's put up a good stat line and looks good, but he's essentially playing a Conference USA/Sun Belt schedule and threw up hige lines against far inferior competition. Outside of those 4 huge days, he's 116/164 (70%) for 1739 yds and a 12-3 TD/INT ratio. It's not a bad line for 6 games, but a far cry from his overall 195/267 (73%) 2964 yd 27-3 stat line against marginal competition overall. 

I know that gets extremely nitpicky and you can't necessarily paint an entire picture by separating huge statistical days from others, but to even consider him right now as a "franchise" NFL QB is just absurd. He's a 1-hit wonder at QB right now playing at some of the lowest level of competition without previous seasons as evidence of consistency. His performance against Coastal Carolina looked more like that of his 2019 starts, which included better competition than the 2020 slate of games. Go figure, the first real competition for him this year and he looks stunningly average again. 

Jettison Carr for that? No thanks. Draft him and develop him behind Carr? Sure. But short of that is nothing less than buying into low level hype and totally worm-brained. 

If we bring in a rookie qb now, unless they can play at a very very high level, it will be a downgrade.

Not only that, but all the flaws on this team (defense defense defense) will all still be there. 
I see no reason to move on at this point.

Carr could be better in his 4th year in Gruden's scheme than his 3rd, especially with more chemistry with Agholor(?), Ruggs, and Edwards.  I've been pleased with how he's played though.

Also consider the targets he's had the longest (Waller and Renfrow), he's been especially in sync with. Player continuity only brings out the best in everyone.

[Humble_Beast]

This has to be one of the worst posts I the history of this site 

[Frankie2Gunz]

Carr is on pace for 70 percent completion percentage, 4000 yards,  31 Td's and 7 Ints.  He has been playing at an MVP level this year while having an ineffective running game, patchwork Oline, 2 rookie WR's and a castoff meme joke as our #1 (NA has been playing well for us but lets not think he's anything more than a complimentary piece). Don't get me started on our atrocious D that makes bums like darnold look serviceable.  I don't think most of you can comprehend what having a terrible D does to QB play...

I have no clue as to why this is still even a conversation.  Carr has been playing lights out and is clearly not the issue with this team and might I add this is easily a 4 to 6 win team based on talent...

Trade multiple firsts and Carr for Zach Wilson.  That is flat out insane.  Rich, I love your takes and I know you know football but my guess is that you're just trying to insight debate with this one! 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Frankie2Gunz

[BackinBlack]

just want to point out that lots of people knocked  Carr by saying he never elevated his WRs and needed studs at the position. 
and then they would say the Wentz guts it out with no ones at WRs.

Well Carr has a Wentz cast off looking pretty solid. 

Another Carr criticism become very debatable. 

[MrOaktown_56]

Carr's reliance on Agholor can be frustrating at times.

If Carr trusts Ruggs on the go ball, considering Ruggs is definitely noticeably faster than Agholor, this is potentially 6. Carr played a good game against NY, but if he can develop more chemistry/trust with Ruggs downfield, the offense can be even better.

He did lock onto Waller/Agholor in a few instances where I was frustrated. I think he was trying to lessen his reads because NYJ were sending pressure, but we missed a few big ones because of it.

Not saying he played bad at all. But he can be better. Just like I was saying for Waller earlier this year.

 

[Rich7sena]

52 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Carr is on pace for 70 percent completion percentage, 4000 yards,  31 Td's and 7 Ints.  He has been playing at an MVP level this year while having an ineffective running game, patchwork Oline, 2 rookie WR's and a castoff meme joke as our #1 (NA has been playing well for us but lets not think he's anything more than a complimentary piece). Don't get me started on our atrocious D that makes bums like darnold look serviceable.  I don't think most of you can comprehend what having a terrible D does to QB play...

I have no clue as to why this is still even a conversation.  Carr has been playing lights out and is clearly not the issue with this team and might I add this is easily a 4 to 6 win team based on talent...

Trade multiple firsts and Carr for Zach Wilson.  That is flat out insane.  Rich, I love your takes and I know you know football but my guess is that you're just trying to insight debate with this one! 

I have never said Carr is a bad player. In fact, I have been defending Carr since 2018. Carr is in the same grouping as players as guys like Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, etc. Unlike those players, though, he has never had an above average supporting cast on either side of the ball since 2016. He is a good player, and has been a good player his entire career save for his rookie season and post-injury 2017.

The point of this discussion is exploring different ways how the Raiders can get to the next level. The Raiders will be facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for the next decade and need to make moves to challenge that juggernaut. On one hand, the team can extend Carr to help make room for what I believe is a stellar free agent class. On the other hand, the Raiders can add a player I believe is a better fit for Gruden's system and closer an equal talent-wise to Mahomes in Zach Wilson or Trevor Lawrence. In both instances, the Raiders can sign quality free agents because either way cap room gets cleared.

I'm of the mindset that teams should be aggressively getting better and, if Mayock and Gruden look at Wilson or Lawrence and see an elite talent, they should try to see what it takes to get him. It's the same idea as last year, when half this forum would have easily signed up to draft Burrow or Tua if we had the chance. I, personally, think Lawrence and Wilson are even better than those two.

[ronjon1990]

20 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Carr's reliance on Agholor can be frustrating at times.

If Carr trusts Ruggs on the go ball, considering Ruggs is definitely noticeably faster than Agholor, this is potentially 6. Carr played a good game against NY, but if he can develop more chemistry/trust with Ruggs downfield, the offense can be even better.

He did lock onto Waller/Agholor in a few instances where I was frustrated. I think he was trying to lessen his reads because NYJ were sending pressure, but we missed a few big ones because of it.

Not saying he played bad at all. But he can be better. Just like I was saying for Waller earlier this year.

 

I'm slightly torn on this. On one hand, Agholor has aided in noticeable improvement in our pass game (speaks to our recent casts, especially). On the other, Agholor IS a 2 or 3 option ideally. 

I'm not necessarily against Agholor drawing targets, as he's been fairly productive. But, I don't want to see him be our new Crabtree and dominating the targets because chemistry hasn't been built elsewhere with superior raw talent. 

There was an earlier post discussing guys like Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, and Allen Robinson, and I chose adding Robinson for the size we currently lack. IMO, the ideal WR pecking order for us would be Robinsin, Ruggs, Agholor/Renfrow as interchangeable 3rd and 4th options, and Edwards as the backup/project behind Robinson. Again, Agholor has a role, but he's just not a consistent enough player to warrant being the de-facto #1 we've used him as. That said, Renfrow isn't a 1 and Ruggs is still being groomed. Going forward, I doubt you'll have that concern/frustration. Just a product of working with what we currently have. 

[Jerry]

35 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Carr's reliance on Agholor can be frustrating at times.

If Carr trusts Ruggs on the go ball, considering Ruggs is definitely noticeably faster than Agholor, this is potentially 6. Carr played a good game against NY, but if he can develop more chemistry/trust with Ruggs downfield, the offense can be even better.

He did lock onto Waller/Agholor in a few instances where I was frustrated. I think he was trying to lessen his reads because NYJ were sending pressure, but we missed a few big ones because of it.

Not saying he played bad at all. But he can be better. Just like I was saying for Waller earlier this year.

 

3 TDs and a rushing TD should be more than enough to beat the NYJ.  Defense is trash.  Derek Carr can play better sure, but he's already performing at a very, very high level IMO.

[Jerry]

5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

I'm slightly torn on this. On one hand, Agholor has aided in noticeable improvement in our pass game (speaks to our recent casts, especially). On the other, Agholor IS a 2 or 3 option ideally. 

I'm not necessarily against Agholor drawing targets, as he's been fairly productive. But, I don't want to see him be our new Crabtree and dominating the targets because chemistry hasn't been built elsewhere with superior raw talent. 

There was an earlier post discussing guys like Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, and Allen Robinson, and I chose adding Robinson for the size we currently lack. IMO, the ideal WR pecking order for us would be Robinsin, Ruggs, Agholor/Renfrow as interchangeable 3rd and 4th options, and Edwards as the backup/project behind Robinson. Again, Agholor has a role, but he's just not a consistent enough player to warrant being the de-facto #1 we've used him as. That said, Renfrow isn't a 1 and Ruggs is still being groomed. Going forward, I doubt you'll have that concern/frustration. Just a product of working with what we currently have. 

My thought process is exactly the same.  Agholor to me = Seth Roberts, should definitely be our #3/4 along with Renfrow.  We need Ruggs to develop into our #1 or #2 and add one more real deal WR.  I wanted to write it earlier but I harped on DT and FS due to our defense being atrocious, but WR is definitely up there in needs IMO.  We'll see how it works out, the offense is definitely not the problem.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Carr is on pace for 70 percent completion percentage, 4000 yards,  31 Td's and 7 Ints.  He has been playing at an MVP level this year while having an ineffective running game, patchwork Oline, 2 rookie WR's and a castoff meme joke as our #1 (NA has been playing well for us but lets not think he's anything more than a complimentary piece). Don't get me started on our atrocious D that makes bums like darnold look serviceable.  I don't think most of you can comprehend what having a terrible D does to QB play...

I have no clue as to why this is still even a conversation.  Carr has been playing lights out and is clearly not the issue with this team and might I add this is easily a 4 to 6 win team based on talent...

Trade multiple firsts and Carr for Zach Wilson.  That is flat out insane.  Rich, I love your takes and I know you know football but my guess is that you're just trying to insight debate with this one! 

This can't be overstated. When you look at how painfully conservative Carr has been in recent years, it's obvious that they wanted to limit turnovers and try to stay alive in games, even of it meant punting and banking on a longer field. 

I think back to the opener against the Rams a few years ago. We were in it almost to the end, and ultimately pressing absolutely crushed us because our D couldn't stop them on shorter fields. 

Given that in the last 2 years we've invested 5/6 top 130 picks, 2 being 1st rounders and 1 a 2nd (2019) and 1 first rounder and another top 100 pick (2020) on D, it's obvious that Gruden/Mayock recognize our D as a weak link. The other 4 top 100 picks we spent went towards RB (obvious need) and WR (painfully obvious need) shows that they do indeed target our needs as a general rule. Now, of only they were a little better at deciding "who" to pick, we'd be golden. But yeah, your point is spot friggin on about bad D negatively impacting QB play.

[Jerry]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

I have never said Carr is a bad player. In fact, I have been defending Carr since 2018. Carr is in the same grouping as players as guys like Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, etc. Unlike those players, though, he has never had an above average supporting cast on either side of the ball since 2016. He is a good player, and has been a good player his entire career save for his rookie season and post-injury 2017.

The point of this discussion is exploring different ways how the Raiders can get to the next level. The Raiders will be facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for the next decade and need to make moves to challenge that juggernaut. On one hand, the team can extend Carr to help make room for what I believe is a stellar free agent class. On the other hand, the Raiders can add a player I believe is a better fit for Gruden's system and closer an equal talent-wise to Mahomes in Zach Wilson or Trevor Lawrence. In both instances, the Raiders can sign quality free agents because either way cap room gets cleared.

I'm of the mindset that teams should be aggressively getting better and, if Mayock and Gruden look at Wilson or Lawrence and see an elite talent, they should try to see what it takes to get him. It's the same idea as last year, when half this forum would have easily signed up to draft Burrow or Tua if we had the chance. I, personally, think Lawrence and Wilson are even better than those two.

Put together a top 10 defense.  We literally beat them with a bunch of wet paper bags on defense and DC at QB on offense back in week 5.

[ronjon1990]

3 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Put together a top 10 defense.  We literally beat them with a bunch of wet paper bags on defense and DC at QB on offense back in week 5.

He thinks Zach Wilson is a better prospect than Tua and Burrow. 

That's all that needs to be said. That's a VanS level hot take.