Is Travis Kelce an all time great TE?

[Jakuvious]

Just now, CP3MVP said:

There’s bad QBs and bad offenses. Kittle had BOTH had one of the all time QB seasons. 

You clearly don't remember the late 2000s Chiefs. The 2018 49ers scored a literal touchdown more per game than the 2007 Chiefs. The 2018 49ers weren't the level of trash you seem to think they were, and the Chiefs O between Green and Smith was a lot more trash than you seem to remember.

Seriously, this idea came out of a LOT of discussions back when Gonzalez/Gates and then Gonzalez/Gronk became hot debates. Bad QBs, bad offenses, don't really matter to TE productivity. You won't find a correlation between yards or catches and QB or offensive quality. TDs, yes, yards and catches, no. Your worst QB behind the worst OL is still going to be pretty good at throwing shallow routes and comeback routes over the middle of the field to a TE that's more athletic than every team's LBs. And they'll be down to throw a lot of them. Gonzalez produced fine with crap offenses under Huard, Thigpen, and Croyle. 2014 Witten with Romo and a top 5 offense was almost identically productive in 2015 with Cassel and Moore and a bottom 5 offense. The correlation isn't there. A TE producing with a bad offense is not some rare, impressive feat. It's standard.

Now, setting the all-time yardage record is still impressive. It's just not really any more impressive because the 49ers had the 21st ranked offense.

[lancerman]

7 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

You clearly don't remember the late 2000s Chiefs. The 2018 49ers scored a literal touchdown more per game than the 2007 Chiefs. The 2018 49ers weren't the level of trash you seem to think they were, and the Chiefs O between Green and Smith was a lot more trash than you seem to remember.

Seriously, this idea came out of a LOT of discussions back when Gonzalez/Gates and then Gonzalez/Gronk became hot debates. Bad QBs, bad offenses, don't really matter to TE productivity. You won't find a correlation between yards or catches and QB or offensive quality. TDs, yes, yards and catches, no. Your worst QB behind the worst OL is still going to be pretty good at throwing shallow routes and comeback routes over the middle of the field to a TE that's more athletic than every team's LBs. And they'll be down to throw a lot of them. Gonzalez produced fine with crap offenses under Huard, Thigpen, and Croyle. 2014 Witten with Romo and a top 5 offense was almost identically productive in 2015 with Cassel and Moore and a bottom 5 offense. The correlation isn't there. A TE producing with a bad offense is not some rare, impressive feat. It's standard.

Now, setting the all-time yardage record is still impressive. It's just not really any more impressive because the 49ers had the 21st ranked offense.

Yeah people used to say that Gonzalez didn’t have a good QB until Ryan, but the fact was that he didn’t really see a stat increase with Ryan. You can chalk that up to age, but it didn’t make a noticeable difference 

[DannyB]

7 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

Witten would be off your HOF ballot?

Isn't that literally what I said in my post?

 

7 hours ago, Saint_James said:

The Brady effect I'm afraid.  Anyone with less rings than Gronk is viewed as garbage....🙄

Wouldn't that be the Gronk Effect then? Also yes, I think Jason Witten is garbage, since I'm saying he just barely would miss my Hall of Fame vote. So as long as you are simply not garbage, you should get in the Hall of Fame, is what you are saying. Awesome, love this board.

[DannyB]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

You clearly don't remember the late 2000s Chiefs. The 2018 49ers scored a literal touchdown more per game than the 2007 Chiefs. The 2018 49ers weren't the level of trash you seem to think they were, and the Chiefs O between Green and Smith was a lot more trash than you seem to remember.

Seriously, this idea came out of a LOT of discussions back when Gonzalez/Gates and then Gonzalez/Gronk became hot debates. Bad QBs, bad offenses, don't really matter to TE productivity. You won't find a correlation between yards or catches and QB or offensive quality. TDs, yes, yards and catches, no. Your worst QB behind the worst OL is still going to be pretty good at throwing shallow routes and comeback routes over the middle of the field to a TE that's more athletic than every team's LBs. And they'll be down to throw a lot of them. Gonzalez produced fine with crap offenses under Huard, Thigpen, and Croyle. 2014 Witten with Romo and a top 5 offense was almost identically productive in 2015 with Cassel and Moore and a bottom 5 offense. The correlation isn't there. A TE producing with a bad offense is not some rare, impressive feat. It's standard.

Now, setting the all-time yardage record is still impressive. It's just not really any more impressive because the 49ers had the 21st ranked offense.

I think certain quarterbacks, or certain offenses that are loaded with receiving options, can benefit a TE's stats, but kinda like what you're saying, I think a TE's production is a little more resistant to being brought down by an otherwise mediocre or bad offense. As in, a TE can thrive stats-wise in an average offense.

Peyton Manning's usage of Dallas Clark and Julius Thomas come to mind when I think of TEs whose stats were benefited, or elevated because of the QB/offense around them.

Edited December 6, 2020 by DannyB

[11sanchez11]

yes

[Asciimo]

3 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

No question he is, productive pre, Mahomes, productive post Mahomes

post malomes lol. 

he's somewhere top 10.

[Apparition]

4 hours ago, DannyB said:

I think certain quarterbacks, or certain offenses that are loaded with receiving options, can benefit a TE's stats, but kinda like what you're saying, I think a TE's production is a little more resistant to being brought down by an otherwise mediocre or bad offense. As in, a TE can thrive stats-wise in an average offense.

Peyton Manning's usage of Dallas Clark and Julius Thomas come to mind when I think of TEs whose stats were benefited, or elevated because of the QB/offense around them.

Julius Thomas was never a big yardage guy. He caught a ton of TDs from Peyton in '12 and '13 but never even came close to a 1000-yard season. 

That's generally where the production gain/loss is for TEs playing with different QBs. A mediocre or inexperienced QB will frequently lean on a great TE to move the ball up and down the field, but won't be able to consistently find them in the end zone. 

[Chiefer]

 

 

[Hunter2_1]

All time super Chad

[SBLIII]

On 12/5/2020 at 10:16 PM, Starless said:

Yes. I fully expect him to make the HOF. I'd put him in the same tier as guys like Gates and Witten.

With all respect to those guys, but Kelce is way better. He can't be covered, he is always open. 

[Saint_James]

17 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

For what its worth, quality of QB play really doesn't correlate that much with TE productivity. Aside from TDs. Better QB, better O, more scoring chances. But otherwise it often is a wash. Bad QB is more likely to take the easy to see big body over the middle of the field who is (if a good TE) almost always a mismatch. Better QB is more likely to see the whole field, spread the ball around. Kittle was less productive with better QB play the next year. Kelce had comparable productivity across Smith and Mahomes. Gonzalez had 4 1000 yard seasons, and only one was with Green. 0 with Ryan. The other 3 were GrBac, Huard, Coyle, and Thigpen. A great TE can often just get a huge target share from a young or lesser QB, which makes up for the lower quality offense. I used to actually argue with Chiefs fans about this when they acted like Gonzalez would be getting like 1400 yards with a better QB, based on what he did with trash.

For me it's not about the QB play alone but for the fact that Kittle is in such a run-heavy offense with the Niners.  The MOST run heavy in the league I believe, at least last year. The system limits him obviously when we're comparing him to a Chiefs TE.

[Rod Johnson]

He's already in the HOF.  The Heights High Hall of Fame.

[scar988]

Yes. He is.

[Saint_James]

When you compare their last two healthy seasons, Kittle and Kelce are really close in total production.  Kittle has WAY more YAC though.

But I guess I'm just not seeing a real reason why Kelce is some all-time great other than he's on a great team that airs it out all over the field.   How is he THAT much better than Darren Waller or George Kittle?

[Nightime]

1 hour ago, Saint_James said:

When you compare their last two healthy seasons, Kittle and Kelce are really close in total production.  Kittle has WAY more YAC though.

But I guess I'm just not seeing a real reason why Kelce is some all-time great other than he's on a great team that airs it out all over the field.   How is he THAT much better than Darren Waller or George Kittle?

Historic production. 5 straight 1000 yard seasons, second straight year being top 5 in receiving amongst all players, and of course, a great performer in the playoffs. Among NFL tight ends I believe he is 6th in postseason receiving yards