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Is Herbert a lock for OROY?


SteelKing728

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48 minutes ago, INbengalfan said:

No it's not.  Burrow was constantly under duress.  The starting LG just posted a 7.1 PFF score.  You continually try to prop Herbert by saying he has it so much worse.  Granted, I don't watch much of the Chargers, but the Bengals o-line is treading near all time worst territory.  Stop acting like Herbert is some other world QB.  He's very good.  If he wins OROY, I have no problem with it.  

But it isn't true. Cincy has a pressure rate of 20.8, which ranks 20th. Joe was hurried 29 times. Yes he has a pocket time of 2.3 vs 2.4, but that is a huge difference.

The 3 teams ranked above the Chargers in worse pressure rate, combined have 79 hurries allowed. Chargers alone have 79. 

Joe and Justin both had 2.65 as their time to throw mark. So no it's not propping up, its stating facts. As bad as Cincy's pass blocking was for Joe, it's been considerably worse for Justin.

Only person who might have it worse is Nick Mullens.

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46 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Not to get too off track, but what do th Chargers even do in the draft if they pick after CIN who goes Sewell? Get a WR or go defense? At this point I'm not sure I see an OL worthy prospect going top 5 outside of Sewell.

If not Sewell, then trade it or just pull the trigger on Surtain.

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On 12/9/2020 at 8:41 AM, SteelKing728 said:

We all know its a QB driven league, and QBs are the ones who get the most awards.

Justin Herbert is having a fine season, and is set to break the rookie passing TD record. While the Chargers aren't any good overall, clearly Herbert isn't the problem.

Still, this is a good draft class with some potential future superstars entering the league. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and James Robinson are all having very good seasons in year 1. The problem? They don't play QB and the only one with a lock to make it to the playoffs is CEH.

Can any of these guys overtake Justin Herbert or do we lock him in now for OROY?

If anyone does it's Jefferson that can overtake Herbert. Another way to look at this is that Jefferson is producing at an elite rate while Herbert isn't close to playing like an elite QB. That matters.

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1 hour ago, .Buzz said:

Not to get too off track, but what do th Chargers even do in the draft if they pick after CIN who goes Sewell? Get a WR or go defense? At this point I'm not sure I see an OL worthy prospect going top 5 outside of Sewell.

Hopefully the new GM can trade down to get more picks if that happens.

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I read on another site that Herbert has been named Offensive Rookie of the Week seven times. Okay, big picture that means he's basically a lock. It would probably take four more weeks like the last four to deny.

I haven't been overly impressed with Herbert because I'm not a fan of losing close games, especially on a team with so many good qualities. For example, the Chargers are 4th in the league in defensive YPA. That almost never aligns with a won/loss record like this. But the pass defense has folded in key situations and has an awful touchdown/interception ratio, especially given the strong YPA number.

Also I can't forget the poor choices he made in the late stretches and earlier key plays of the Chiefs game. First start doesn't excuse bad instincts. 

Keep in mind as a 1972 Dolphins season ticket holder the first priority every season is maintaining that distinction as unmatched. I never relax and enjoy the season until it happens. Today to Tuesday is a totally different mindset, thanks to Washington. Preventing Mahomes from going unbeaten during his career is going to be every bit as hellish as the past 15 years or so with Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees. Every one of them took it very deep into the season at least once. And that was absolutely guaranteed, given the disgraceful rules these days, restraining defense and coddling the passing game. I was admittedly furious at Herbert for blowing that Chiefs game because I knew darn well there would only be 2 or 3 legitimate chances to defeat that team.

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48 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

I read on another site that Herbert has been named Offensive Rookie of the Week seven times. Okay, big picture that means he's basically a lock. It would probably take four more weeks like the last four to deny.

I haven't been overly impressed with Herbert because I'm not a fan of losing close games, especially on a team with so many good qualities. For example, the Chargers are 4th in the league in defensive YPA. That almost never aligns with a won/loss record like this. But the pass defense has folded in key situations and has an awful touchdown/interception ratio, especially given the strong YPA number.

Also I can't forget the poor choices he made in the late stretches and earlier key plays of the Chiefs game. First start doesn't excuse bad instincts. 

Keep in mind as a 1972 Dolphins season ticket holder the first priority every season is maintaining that distinction as unmatched. I never relax and enjoy the season until it happens. Today to Tuesday is a totally different mindset, thanks to Washington. Preventing Mahomes from going unbeaten during his career is going to be every bit as hellish as the past 15 years or so with Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees. Every one of them took it very deep into the season at least once. And that was absolutely guaranteed, given the disgraceful rules these days, restraining defense and coddling the passing game. I was admittedly furious at Herbert for blowing that Chiefs game because I knew darn well there would only be 2 or 3 legitimate chances to defeat that team.

So basically, you expect QBs to be perfect; which none ever are. Let alone a rookie with arguably worst o-line in the league, bad coach, 1st year full time OC, no preseason, shorten-pandemic riddled offseason/with hard-knocks distractions.

You haven't been "impressed" because you are a Dolphins fan trying to convince yourself Tua was the right choice. Stop tippy toeing around the truth.

 

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Justin Herbert will win it because he plays QB.

Justin Jefferson or James Robinson should win it.

Herbert has a very positive outlook and has been great all things considered but Jefferson and Robinson have been exemplary.

 

Also Herbert could easily still lose it if he doesn't get back on track with some decent performances, at least (so I wouldn't call it as far as a lock). I expect he will though.

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10 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Justin Herbert will win it because he plays QB.

Justin Jefferson or James Robinson should win it.

Herbert has a very positive outlook and has been great all things considered but Jefferson and Robinson have been exemplary.

 

Also Herbert could easily still lose it if he doesn't get back on track with some decent performances, at least (so I wouldn't call it as far as a lock). I expect he will though.

James Robinson shouldn't be in the conversation simply because Justin Jefferson has him beat.

Robinson is good - but he is a product of volume on a horrific team.

If we're talking about QB vs non-QB, then Jefferson is the alternative to Herbert.. not Robinson

That said, I'd argue that pre-NE game, Herbert was every bit as excellent as Jefferson AND at the more important position.. It's a conversation now after the Patriot game.

If Herbert gets back on track, its his to lose. But if he don't get back to that elite form Jefferson wins it easily. A 1300/10 WR is going to win it unless the QB in question is EXCELLENT - which Herbert unquestionably was up until Sunday

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1 minute ago, Tk3 said:

James Robinson shouldn't be in the conversation simply because Justin Jefferson has him beat.

Robinson is good - but he is a product of volume on a horrific team.

If we're talking about QB vs non-QB, then Jefferson is the alternative to Herbert.. not Robinson

That said, I'd argue that pre-NE game, Herbert was every bit as excellent as Jefferson AND at the more important position.. It's a conversation now after the Patriot game.

If Herbert gets back on track, its his to lose. But if he don't get back to that elite form Jefferson wins it easily. A 1300/10 WR is going to win it unless the QB in question is EXCELLENT - which Herbert unquestionably was up until Sunday

I disagree with this sentiment.

Obviously he has benefited from volume but he has been exemplary in his opportunities, just like Jefferson.

I'd probably put Jefferson ahead of Robinson too for the record, but I think Robinson deserves to be in the conversation.

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1 hour ago, Tk3 said:

James Robinson shouldn't be in the conversation simply because Justin Jefferson has him beat.

Robinson is good - but he is a product of volume on a horrific team.

If we're talking about QB vs non-QB, then Jefferson is the alternative to Herbert.. not Robinson

That said, I'd argue that pre-NE game, Herbert was every bit as excellent as Jefferson AND at the more important position.. It's a conversation now after the Patriot game.

If Herbert gets back on track, its his to lose. But if he don't get back to that elite form Jefferson wins it easily. A 1300/10 WR is going to win it unless the QB in question is EXCELLENT - which Herbert unquestionably was up until Sunday

Yup, prior to stupid Belichick continuing to own Chargers, Herbert was every bit top 10 qb in the league. That NE game really decimated his overall numbers. 

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On 12/9/2020 at 2:39 PM, RamblinMan99 said:

Lol, no.  

He's having a very Philip Rivers-like season at most.  

And, why is his team last place in their division? He's thrown some costly picks. He has a lot to do with why they're so bad.  

He's going to be a Gardner Minshew fad that grows stale fast.  

Joe Burrow's far better.  

This has absolutely nothing to do with it.  

Baker Mayfield broke the rookie TD record two years ago for the very reason that it's a QB driven league.  

Every rookie QB going forward will set the new record until we eventually get to a rookie QB who will throw 50 TDs.  

Do you think an average season from a rookie QB is better than an elite season from a rookie non-QB?

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