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Is Herbert a lock for OROY?


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We all know its a QB driven league, and QBs are the ones who get the most awards.

Justin Herbert is having a fine season, and is set to break the rookie passing TD record. While the Chargers aren't any good overall, clearly Herbert isn't the problem.

Still, this is a good draft class with some potential future superstars entering the league. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and James Robinson are all having very good seasons in year 1. The problem? They don't play QB and the only one with a lock to make it to the playoffs is CEH.

Can any of these guys overtake Justin Herbert or do we lock him in now for OROY?

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Justin Jefferson has 61 catches, 1,039 yards (4th in the NFL), 7 TD, averaging 17.0 YPC (4th in the NFL), and is on pace for 81 catches, 1,385 yards, and 9-10 TD. Those numbers are good enough to vault him into the "One of the best WR in the NFL" discussion as a rookie, which IMO means he should win it.

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11 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Herbert and Jefferson





Everyone else.

I'd toss in a nod to James Robinson. 1,278 YFS (3rd in rushing with 968 yards) 9 TDs on a disaster of an offense where he's pretty much the only guy who can get anything done. 

From an undrafted to top 5 RB this season is impressive.

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6 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Depending on how Herbert finishes the season, I do believe he'll win it. I think that Justin Jefferson and James Robinson though are having phenomenal seasons, but when the league has a chance to give a QB an award over a skill position guy, they rarely pass that up.

My thoughts exactly.

A QB who looks like he'll break a bunch of rookie records at the most important position...it'll be him. But Jefferson and Robinson have produced like top 5-10 players at their positions this year themselves. They deserve to be in the discussion.

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Before Sunday Herbert was the heavy, heavy favorite, closing in on lock status

Now it's a conversation

I'm still giving it to Herbert at the moment, but its a conversation. If Jefferson ends with like 1300/10, then Herbert needs to get back to form ASAP

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I don't think Herbert will have 4 more games where his team is blown out 0-45 but December can be tough for QBs (supposedly). Playing in a dome always helps though.

Robinson would be to hit like 1700 rush yards and close to 15 TDs to even get a few votes.

Jefferson needs Minnesota to win out plus get around 1.3k and 10TDs to win it, as stated above.

Claypool might have had a shot but he's really slowed down his efficiency numbers. 

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1a. Justin Jefferson 9/10
1b. Justin Herbert 9/10
3. Josh Robinson 8.5/10
4. Antonio Gibson 8/10
5. Michael Onwenu 8/10
6. Chase Claypool 7.5/10
7. Joe Burrow 7.5/10

Just made up a fast worthless scoring system to show the rough distance to each.

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2-9 record and 7.1 YPA. If that's a lock then the league has lost all perspective.

Herbert looked so scared against the Dolphins and that amoeba defense. His facial expression throughout seemed like he fully understood the inevitable outcome and wanted to be anywhere else. This isn't rationalization a month later. I posted it immediately on Dolphin sites, especially during the Tua vs. Herbert debates after that game. Tua was animated and Herbert a sour-faced frump. That was a major part of the evaluation process entering the league, and how Herbert translated. It's hardly stature and spirals alone.

I probably should have realized that Belichick would sense the same thing out of that Dolphins game, and use the blueprint to turn up the mental pressure several notches against Herbert. Maybe he'll eventually adjust but right now Herbert against that type of atypical stand-up defense gets happy feet and throws on retreat. The interception last week at 35-0 looked exactly like so many plays against the Dolphins. Contrast to standard looks where Herbert has no problem stepping up in the pocket.

At least Herbert is finished with the 4 consecutive game stretch against the AFC East, so he might artificially boost his numbers again.

It was 5.84 YPA against the Dolphins, then a good but unspectacular 7.47 against the Jets, 6.08 versus Buffalo, and a laughable 3.94 against New England

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