What to do at QB?

[paul-mac]

By the way, I’m still unconvinced that either or both of Rodgers and Wilson are going to be traded this off-season.

 

The Packers under Matt LaFleur have been the most consistently elite regular season team 2019 onwards. They’ve fallen flat in January and that’s really the root of Rodgers wanting out, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they go and win it this year and he decides that he’s more likely to get a third ring by staying put than by going elsewhere. I think it’s 50-50 at best that he will be traded at all.

 

 

Wilson is even less likely to be moved, IMO. He didn’t actually ask for a trade last year, he just provided a list of teams that he would consider playing for if the Seahawks did want to trade him. Now, it’s going south in Seattle this season and we are approaching the end of the most glorious era of that team, but I think it’s more likely that the front office decides to clean house and encourage Pete Carroll to retire and then bring in a new coaching staff to build around Wilson rather than trading him. I think there’s a 30% chance he will be traded.

 

So essentially I think the odds of a trade are:

 

35% neither is traded 

35% Only Rodgers is traded

15% Only Wilson is traded 

15% both are traded 

 

 

Only one getting traded is highly problematic for Denver because I think the Steelers are the natural starting point for an elite QB to join a talented roster and chase a ring. Next after that would be the Washington Football Team, but I’m reluctant to think that either GB or Seattle would trade within the NFC. The next one after that would be the Broncos, which is why I expect that we can land either Rodgers or Wilson if BOTH are traded (but if only one is, then I think they’ll be a Steeler)

 

The one wildcard option for me is the Cleveland Browns. They have an incredibly talented roster and some commentators do believe that Baker Mayfield is holding them back. If the front office is persuaded that this is correct, it’s not totally out of the question that they’d trade Mayfield and pursue Rodgers/Wilson. If this does happen and we strike out on the elite guys then I wouldn’t be opposed to picking up Mayfield.

 

The crux of it is that Paton needs to go all in to land these guys but we do need to have a contingency plan because there’s a > 50% chance of striking out. It’s possible that neither of them will be traded at all, and even if one is available, it’s pretty unlikely both will be. Furthermore, we are at very best second in the line to land an elite QB behind the Steelers (and possibly as low as 4th behind the WFT and Browns).

 

I’m just assuming Deshaun Watson will end up going to Miami or Carolina. That’s a whole different debate. 

[thebestever6]

2 hours ago, paul-mac said:

35% neither is traded 

35% Only Rodgers is traded

15% Only Wilson is traded 

15% both are traded 

it's crazy if you think about it Paton had an amazing draft this past year arguably a Gms best in Denver since 2006 if I'm being honest.

That all can be for not if there's no viable way to get a good qb to town.

You think we passed up on Jones and Fields those are the big prospects and kicked the can down the road. 

if we do manage to miss out on Wilson and Rodgers and force the need to the draft. We passed up on fields and Jones for a Strong, Howell, Ridder, Pickett. Who do we have faith in that makes if worth passing Jones and Fields the class before? 

 

[paul-mac]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

it's crazy if you think about it Paton had an amazing draft this past year arguably a Gms best in Denver since 2006 if I'm being honest.

That all can be for not if there's no viable way to get a good qb to town.

You think we passed up on Jones and Fields those are the big prospects and kicked the can down the road. 

if we do manage to miss out on Wilson and Rodgers and force the need to the draft. We passed up on fields and Jones for a Strong, Howell, Ridder, Pickett. Who do we have faith in that makes if worth passing Jones and Fields the class before? 

 

I don’t think we necessarily passed on Fields and Jones in order to wait for someone else. I think we passed on them because our evaluation was that they would not go on to become franchise QBs. The very very early indications are they we may have been wrong on Jones and correct on Fields but ultimately we are well over a year away from knowing definitively.

 

You can’t just draft a QB for the sake of it. You draft a QB if you believe he will be a franchise QB and upgrade on what you already have. Assuming Paton didn’t see those guys are game changers then he was right to go with the safe bet in PS2. 

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

If we’re serious about winning the Super Bowl then we can’t have a QB who is making top 10 QB money. 
 

it hasn’t happened in the last 20 years.  Rodgers, Wilson, Big Ben, Eli, the Eagles under Foles all won when their top QB was on a rookie contract. Brees won when he was on a prove it deal after flaming out in SD and coming off of a torn rotator cuff. Peyton won on his rookie deal and then after agreeing to a salary cut. Brady has forever been playing the cap. Taking one big year where they know they will be in transition (1st year in TB) to allow for his cap hit to be small the rest of the time ($10M last year).

if we want to be playing meaningful football in November and December (much to Dan’s chagrin) then let’s push hard for Wilson or Rodgers. If we want to win a ring then we need to draft and develop a QB. 

[sportcourt7]

49 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

If we’re serious about winning the Super Bowl then we can’t have a QB who is making top 10 QB money. 
 

it hasn’t happened in the last 20 years.  Rodgers, Wilson, Big Ben, Eli, the Eagles under Foles all won when their top QB was on a rookie contract. Brees won when he was on a prove it deal after flaming out in SD and coming off of a torn rotator cuff. Peyton won on his rookie deal and then after agreeing to a salary cut. Brady has forever been playing the cap. Taking one big year where they know they will be in transition (1st year in TB) to allow for his cap hit to be small the rest of the time ($10M last year).

if we want to be playing meaningful football in November and December (much to Dan’s chagrin) then let’s push hard for Wilson or Rodgers. If we want to win a ring then we need to draft and develop a QB. 

That's just not true. I'm not saying it's the best strategy to pay a QB huge money but you can absolutely win the super bowl with a QB that had a top 10 cap hit. Just last year Brady had the 5th highest cap hit.

2002: Brad Johnson was 4th

2006: Peyton was 6th

2007: Eli was 4th

2011: Eli was 5th

2015: Peyton was 6th

2020: Brady was 5th

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/high-end-quarterbacks-are-great-it-means-teams-have-be-perfect-everywhere-else

[anewdawn]

1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

If we’re serious about winning the Super Bowl then we can’t have a QB who is making top 10 QB money. 
 

it hasn’t happened in the last 20 years.  Rodgers, Wilson, Big Ben, Eli, the Eagles under Foles all won when their top QB was on a rookie contract. Brees won when he was on a prove it deal after flaming out in SD and coming off of a torn rotator cuff. Peyton won on his rookie deal and then after agreeing to a salary cut. Brady has forever been playing the cap. Taking one big year where they know they will be in transition (1st year in TB) to allow for his cap hit to be small the rest of the time ($10M last year).

if we want to be playing meaningful football in November and December (much to Dan’s chagrin) then let’s push hard for Wilson or Rodgers. If we want to win a ring then we need to draft and develop a QB. 

Re the bold I really think they need to cap the qb position on its own.  Ridiculous the amount the money they make and the smart ones like Brady work around it.  Next years cap is 208 million.  There are some making 50 a year already so lets say cap the qb's at 26% for an annual salary of 54 million.  This would mean when the cap hits 220 million they can sign for a paltry 57 million.  Need to do this for at least five years imo to get some reality into the situation.  Just my thoughts which are worth sweet f all

[jsthomp2007]

While I prefer Russ Wilson; I would be onboard with Desmond Ridder.  He has a plethora of experience, graduated, and have all the leadership chops you need. 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

52 minutes ago, sportcourt7 said:

That's just not true. I'm not saying it's the best strategy to pay a QB huge money but you can absolutely win the super bowl with a QB that had a top 10 cap hit. Just last year Brady had the 5th highest cap hit.

2002: Brad Johnson was 4th

2006: Peyton was 6th

2007: Eli was 4th

2011: Eli was 5th

2015: Peyton was 6th

2020: Brady was 5th

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/high-end-quarterbacks-are-great-it-means-teams-have-be-perfect-everywhere-else

You’re correct about Brady last year (the exception to prove the rule. Interestingly his cap hit this season is $10M)

Manning’s cap hit in 2015 was offset by a $4M cut right before the season dropping his actual cap hit. (The article you quote even says that Brady last year was the first time in 10 years a QB with a top 10 cap hit won)

The Manning brothers’ previous wins were all on their rookie salaries (admittedly prior to the current CBA when rookie QBs made bank)

so we have brad Johnson in 2002 and Tom Brady last year as QBs in the last 20 years who are not on rookie deals and making top 10 money who won a ring. The other 18 indicate what I say is true.

 

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

If we’re serious about winning the Super Bowl then we can’t have a QB who is making top 10 QB money. 
 

it hasn’t happened in the last 20 years.  Rodgers, Wilson, Big Ben, Eli, the Eagles under Foles all won when their top QB was on a rookie contract. Brees won when he was on a prove it deal after flaming out in SD and coming off of a torn rotator cuff. Peyton won on his rookie deal and then after agreeing to a salary cut. Brady has forever been playing the cap. Taking one big year where they know they will be in transition (1st year in TB) to allow for his cap hit to be small the rest of the time ($10M last year).

if we want to be playing meaningful football in November and December (much to Dan’s chagrin) then let’s push hard for Wilson or Rodgers. If we want to win a ring then we need to draft and develop a QB. 

I'm not sure the top 10 is right, but your point is. I think the number I've heard is 12% of the cap. No QB has ever won a SB with a  salary exceeding 12% of the cap. All the guys mentioned in trade talks will far exceed that number. Add in the draft pick compensation and a title gets harder to achieve.

 

[broncosfan07]

I get the reservation of paying a QB big bucks and the correlation to winning a SB. But I don’t really know where else you’d spend that money, yes you can build an excellent OL, good position players and a good defense but if you still only get average QB play you then spent that money on a team that didn’t go anywhere. 
 

At the very least with an elite QB you should be a contender every year. Drafting and developing a QB is obviously the best plan but if you draft busts you then wasted your teams potential.

I think you have to make that gamble of taking on a high paid, elite QB for the chance of winning a SB. I would rather be able to have a QB for 10 years but the reality is no matter what that player is going to end up getting paid and then what? Do you pay him or move on and basically signal your fan base that it’s time to rebuild?

[AKRNA]

51 minutes ago, broncosfan07 said:

I get the reservation of paying a QB big bucks and the correlation to winning a SB. But I don’t really know where else you’d spend that money, yes you can build an excellent OL, good position players and a good defense but if you still only get average QB play you then spent that money on a team that didn’t go anywhere. 
 

 

Actually, there are a bunch of SB's that have been won with average QB's, lot's of 'em. We won one with the worst QB in the league. Whats really tough to find are SB winners with bad defenses. That's a pretty rare commodity.

[jolly red giant]

It is not correct to say that you cannot win the SB with a highly paid QB.

To start with - that highly paid QB will likely get you into a position to win the SB. If you are very good at drafting the right players (and Paton appears to have a good eye) then you can succeed at winning the SB by surround your highly paid QB with talent some of whom are playing on their rookie contracts.

The second way to do it is by finding gems in free agency who are willing to come and play with a highly paid QB in order to have a chance of a ring. Elway did a pretty decent job of this putting the roster together for SB 50.

You need to have a plan - and that plan starts with good QB play.

[The Helicopter]

I think we'd all prefer to hit one in the draft...but how long are we willing to wait? Let's say AR and RW stay put or we are simply outgunned and can't land them...do we go all in for a QB in the 2022 draft or if there's no viable option is it ok to wait until 2023?

[broncosfan07]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Actually, there are a bunch of SB's that have been won with average QB's, lot's of 'em. We won one with the worst QB in the league. Whats really tough to find are SB winners with bad defenses. That's a pretty rare commodity.

I wouldn’t say any average QB has won a SB since Brad Johnson, Flacco and Foles at the time were above average but excellent in the playoffs but apart from those 2, Johnson and Dilfer every QB will be or is a HOF member. 
 

Those teams that did win a SB with an average QB fell off drastically after and apart from the Ravens struggled for years with terrible QB play. 
 

With the cap going up how much we pay a QB doesn’t really bother me, this franchise has won one playoff game with a player they drafted. Every QB who has done anything has cost something to acquire, if you can’t draft em correctly why keep wasting picks and time on them?

[grizmo78]

5 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

If we’re serious about winning the Super Bowl then we can’t have a QB who is making top 10 QB money. 
 

it hasn’t happened in the last 20 years.  Rodgers, Wilson, Big Ben, Eli, the Eagles under Foles all won when their top QB was on a rookie contract. Brees won when he was on a prove it deal after flaming out in SD and coming off of a torn rotator cuff. Peyton won on his rookie deal and then after agreeing to a salary cut. Brady has forever been playing the cap. Taking one big year where they know they will be in transition (1st year in TB) to allow for his cap hit to be small the rest of the time ($10M last year).

if we want to be playing meaningful football in November and December (much to Dan’s chagrin) then let’s push hard for Wilson or Rodgers. If we want to win a ring then we need to draft and develop a QB. 

I think is pretty clear that the biggest advantage any team could have is a star QB on a rookie contract. That's also like trying to find a needle in a haystack. We should always look and try to hit on that but reality is that it's incredibly difficult. 

I hate the argument that having a QB making top 10 money isn't a recipe for success. Your argument looks only at Super Bowl wins which is such a small sample size of games. If you expand your measure of success to played in an AFC/NFC championship game, you'll see that the vast majority of games played involved a top tier QB. That means you'll have a much higher chance to play in, let alone win a Super Bowl with a top QB. I'd also be interested to see, of the teams that won the Super Bowl without a top 10 QB, how did they fare the next 2-3 years after. 

Roster building is complex and there are so many factors into creating a championship team. There are always going to be concessions that need to be made in terms of where you're going to place the strength of your team, and where you're going to place the weakness of your team with the most/least impact. Having a star QB has the most impact imo. 

All that said, the worst thing is to overpay a fringe top 10 QB. Ex. Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Garopollo are all in top 5 cap hits this year... thats terrible value. Rodgers and Wilson are stars though, and after a trade, would actually be much more manageable cap wise due to not having to pay their signing bonus. 

Edited December 7, 2021 by grizmo78