Broncos Free Agency Thread

[broncofan48]

6 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

Just my observation, but I get your point. What makes you think he IS better than Lock ? My question, why give a positive WR for a QB who got you the 2nd overall pick ?? Guess you can just blame Gase...

Ryan Tannehill sure got better away from Gase 

[BroncoBruin]

Tannehill definitely elevated his game after leaving Miami, but to be fair he wasn’t bad under Gase. Darnold has been bad. 

[Cutler06]

20 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Ryan Tannehill sure got better away from Gase 

Fair, but TENN was already a much better team than MIA too

[Cutler06]

And honestly, if we're trading Patrick for a QB, there's this guy down in HOU that he could be part of that package ...just sayin'

Edited March 6, 2021 by Cutler06

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

Tannehill definitely elevated his game after leaving Miami, but to be fair he wasn’t bad under Gase. Darnold has been bad. 

Yup, he's been three years of very bad. I'm not sure why any one is certain that he'd be better than Lock. He's turned the ball over 60 times in 38 games, has a terrible TD to INT ratio, struggles to reach 60% completion and has really shown no sign of improvement.

I guess a person could blame that on coaching, lousy team, etc. but at this point I'd just say he's a bust and his skill set never carried over the the NFL. 

[jsthomp2007]

On 3/5/2021 at 7:38 PM, BroncoBruin said:

Tannehill definitely elevated his game after leaving Miami, but to be fair he wasn’t bad under Gase. Darnold has been bad. 

I always thought Tannehill was pretty good.  He was always competitive on some crappy Dolphin teams.  Alas, that scenario would be great to see what we have in Lock.  Obviously, Mariota folded under the competition.  

[AKRNA]

On 3/2/2021 at 5:52 AM, Broncofan said:

Yeah, and there's a very clear trend that says if anything, Miller would be more sought after.

Watt is still a very good (2019-20) and sometimes great player (2018), but has clearly declined as an EDGE rusher, where's he's played 3/4 of his snaps since 2018 (he enjoyed a career renaissance year there, but the last 2, has stepped back).   He's been a top 10, but no-longer top-of-convo DPOY guy since his back surgery after the 2015 season, save for 2018 - 2019 & 2020 have shown he's still a very good to great player - but not the top guy to lead a D.      Watt was amazing before 2016's injuries hit, and he's still a very good to great player - but not a top-3 type guy, and certainly no longer as a dominant EDGE.    Now, Watt's going to a team that has an alpha pass rusher in Chandler Jones.    Watt's a fantastic asset as a 3-tech to complement to Jones, that's a really good fit if he can stay healthy.     

PFF's article on Watt's regression as an EDGE, but potential as a 1-gap  DE to still be a complementary impact player, is a solid analysis.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-jj-watt-free-agency-2021

Meanwhile, Von's still an EDGE.   He's going to have uncertainty for sure - but he brings the label of the alpha EDGE, and the guy who takes up double-teams and still wins.   Positionally, he would be the clear #1 guy out there.   His injury was a peroneal tendon rupture, which doesn't carry the same long-term risk as an Achilles (although nothing's a given at age 31), so it's unlikely to be seen as a guarantee of similar decline that Watt suffered from his back injuries.  So, Watt getting 2/31M with 23M guaranteed will be rightfully taken as a floor for Miller if he hits FA, and Renck indicated as much in his article on Miller/Watt yesterday. 

 

 

When ppl look at the 2019-20 seasons for Watt, and the money he just got (15.5 AAV, 23M guaranteed, which means the 2/31 is almost a lock) - Von's 18M salary isn't one he and his agent are going to want to give any concessions for.   As Renck pointed out, Watt's signing if anything, gives the floor to Von's FA outlook if DEN parts ways.   

There's a real simple sign to look for - the chatter leading up to March 17th.  That's when DEN guarantees 7M of Von's 18M 2021 salary.  It doesn't prevent a trade, but it makes a release obviously less attractive.   All the beat reporters have said so far, nothing has been approached.   With the March 17th deadline coming, the longer you don't hear about any talks with Von - the more likely GM Paton is going down a restructure later (with extension), a trade - or just taking the 18M 2021 salary, and revisiting the market in the 2021-2 offseason.     It also makes it incredibly unlikely Miller will get the TJ Ward treatment of a post-draft release - and more leverage on Miller's side on why a pay cut is even more of a pipe dream IMO with the Watt signing.   

Given the noise so far, a trade or restructure seems far more likely, with plan B being to play out the string, and see where things shake out for 2021 offseason.    But make no mistake - Watt's signing at 2/31M with pretty much all of it guaranteed, only strengthened Miller's leverage with the FO, given the 18M salary for 2021.

 

 

I think I'll have to disagree with Renck. I watched about 100 snaps of Watt from last year, lined up anywhere from 1-5. He's still a dominant force, basically a tone setter for the D. He was double and triple teamed almost every snap and was still really effective on a D with basically no other front 7 talent. He'll be scary with Arizona. I also noticed he played 91% of the snaps and PFF graded him out at 85, 5 points higher than Leonard Williams. Not quite elite but damned close. Pretty good for a guy back from injury. He just really looks healthy and dominant.

Vons coming back from a serious ankle injury, hasn't played a snap in over a year, and at 32, relying on his quickness that has to be a concern.

Personally, I think JJ set the ceiling, not the floor for front 7 players.

Anyway, just my opinion.

 

[jsthomp2007]

Not a very exciting FA list.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/09/top-200-free-agents-ranking-for-2021-offseason

 

Chidobe Owuze as a CB would be interesting. 

Edited March 9, 2021 by jsthomp2007

[grizmo78]

1 hour ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Not a very excited FA list.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/09/top-200-free-agents-ranking-for-2021-offseason

 

Chidobe Owuze as a CB would be interesting. 

Agreed. Especially underwhelming after all the franchise tags going around. Doesn't help that the areas there are some depth at (WR and S) are ones that that we are pretty set at. Unless we decide to cut KJax for John Johnson or something, but would be odd to invest so much into the safety position with Simmons and a new FA. 

I'm most interested in Shaquil Griffen (CB) if he becomes available. Him, OJ and Callahan would make a good starting three before going into the draft. 

[broncos67]

If we're going to spend anywhere, I hope it's on CBs + Simmons + Shelby. Would be the best thing we could do. I would also hope we draft a bunch of defensive players, but I think we need some reliable veteran CB play. I wouldn't hesitate to double up at CB.

I like William Jackson III, but he's probably going to be the top CB on the market and I don't think it's worth paying him what that designation will command. 

Awuzie, Troy Hill, Mackenzie Alexander, Desmond King, Bashaud Breeland, Xavier Rhodes are all guys I could see us taking a look at.

[thebestever6]

Do we let Sutton walk after the year ? He's gotta get extended I thought he was a top 10 wr last time he played.

[BroncosFan2010]

I like buying low on Rasual Douglas. He is still only 25, comes from Carolina which is very zone heavy and posted a meh PFF grade of 60.3. Taking that into account, fit/age/productivity, and his likely low price tag, he would be a great option if we make a trade for a QB that eats most cap space. 

Jason Verrett and Ahkello Witherspoon are two other guys that probably wont cost a ton and come from a zone heavy scheme in SF. Verrett is particular has always been an outstanding talent. I always saw him as a man guy but in SF he managed a borderline elite 77 PFF grade, stayed relatively healthy and brings a vet who can slide in right away. If we push the chips in on a QB, a vet like him makes a ton of sense. And draft our yearly middle round CB who likely busts, but thats how you eventually find a keeper lol

Witherspoon is inconsistent but only 25 and when healthy and clicking, a near elite talent in a zone scheme. Dude is huge, lanky and can keep stride to stride with deep threat WR's. He posted an 80 PFF grade last season as an outside guy, which we need. 

Trade the farm for Watson (#9,  #71, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd, 2023 3rd?)

Sign Ahkello Witherspoon

40 - Alex Leatherwood RT (Plug/Play RT with an NFL ready game but a sort of high-floor low-ceiling type)

Thats as far as I got lol

Edited March 10, 2021 by BroncosFan2010

[Cutler06]

Kwon Alexander was just released by the Saints, he'd answer our LB coverage spot if his knees are capable. Know we've had interest in him in the past, perhaps it's time to bring him in. 

 

That said, heard we're also interested in Zaven Collins, which really would end this thought process fast. 

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Cutler06 said:

That said, heard we're also interested in Zaven Collins, which really would end this thought process fast. 

I have a hard time not seeing a trade down if we don't go qb. I also think running back is a bigger need than people think as well as linebacker especially if Lindsay gets an original round tender.

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, broncos67 said:

If we're going to spend anywhere, I hope it's on CBs + Simmons + Shelby. Would be the best thing we could do. I would also hope we draft a bunch of defensive players, but I think we need some reliable veteran CB play. I wouldn't hesitate to double up at CB.

I like William Jackson III, but he's probably going to be the top CB on the market and I don't think it's worth paying him what that designation will command. 

Awuzie, Troy Hill, Mackenzie Alexander, Desmond King, Bashaud Breeland, Xavier Rhodes are all guys I could see us taking a look at.

 

3 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I like buying low on Rasual Douglas. He is still only 25, comes from Carolina which is very zone heavy and posted a meh PFF grade of 60.3. Taking that into account, fit/age/productivity, and his likely low price tag, he would be a great option if we make a trade for a QB that eats most cap space. 

Jason Verrett and Ahkello Witherspoon are two other guys that probably wont cost a ton and come from a zone heavy scheme in SF. Verrett is particular has always been an outstanding talent. I always saw him as a man guy but in SF he managed a borderline elite 77 PFF grade, stayed relatively healthy and brings a vet who can slide in right away. If we push the chips in on a QB, a vet like him makes a ton of sense. And draft our yearly middle round CB who likely busts, but thats how you eventually find a keeper lol

Witherspoon is inconsistent but only 25 and when healthy and clicking, a near elite talent in a zone scheme. Dude is huge, lanky and can keep stride to stride with deep threat WR's. He posted an 80 PFF grade last season as an outside guy, which we need. 

Trade the farm for Watson (#9,  #71, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd, 2023 3rd?)

Sign Ahkello Witherspoon

40 - Alex Leatherwood RT (Plug/Play RT with an NFL ready game but a sort of high-floor low-ceiling type)

Thats as far as I got lol

Whether we trade picks for Watson or Darnold (and Darnold shouldn't be talking about a 1st, more if it's Rd2 or Rd3) or not, I don't think we can realistically look to the draft as our only source of CB talent infusion.      We need more help, preferably young, given where our team is at.   Realistically, we'd ideally bring in 2-3 viable candidates to break the 53-man roster.   That's not happening from the draft alone.

Having said that, I really like the idea of taking a shot at young FA CB's, and at relative bargain rates, specifically in order of preference:

-Ahekllo Witherspoon

-Mackenzie Alexander

-Rasul Douglas (would be cheaper than the top 2)

Guys like Jackson III & Awuzie are fine choices - the only issue how expensive they'll be.   If they are asking for 10M++ AAV wise, and multiple guaranteed years....not so sure there.

Those 3 above have the tools, and in Witherspoon's case, success in a zone scheme.   Alexander has not performed to his Rd1 pick yet, but there are flashes.   @BroncosFan2010 covered Douglas.   In Alexander & Douglas' case, their run support skills make them ideal fits for Fangio's scheme.  And while Witherspoon has been hit & miss, last year he really improved in the 2H in this regard. The key part that each of these guys would appear to be fairly reasonable to acquire salary-wise- and then offer the ceiling of continued value play for the life of a FA contract and beyond, given their age.     

I also think Fangio's scheme doesn't require CB's to be elite talents - but have zone-friendly skills.  Those 3 fit the bill.  No one would say no to an elite-talent level CB who plays for us, but as far as FA is concerned, those guys cost a mint - so it's not a great allocation of team resources to go high-end FA heavy.    If we find 1-2 in the draft, awesome - but spending top FA $ usually ends badly.  And with Fangio's scheme, I don't think it's necessary.

If Fangio & Paton agree on other value CB picks, I'm on board - just wouldn't want them to break the bank on CB in FA.   And if it's a vet close to their age-30 season, the lifespan is so very short (then again, if the cost is minimal, then I get it).    It's just that this is the offseason where teams can probably find a lot of guys at value - if you're not elite, you're going to get less $ this offseason than next year, when the cap goes way up.  So investing in a guy who could start for 3-4 years and still be peak-level play-wise is really appealing. 

The holy grail is the affordable young CB who can be a long-term piece, but obviously everyone is looking for them.   It's why the post-hype tier, or the guy who's been overshadowed by teammates in another scheme, makes a lot of sense - because they have room to grow, and shoudn't cost a lot this offseason.

Edited March 10, 2021 by Broncofan