There hasn't been a Hall of Fame-worthy RB drafted in over a decade

[Apparition]

Typically, the minimum threshold for HOF induction as a RB is 10,000 rushing yards and 60 rushing TDs.

The last 4 players to cross these thresholds have been Frank Gore (drafted 2005), Adrian Peterson (drafted 2007), Marshawn Lynch (drafted 2007) and LeSean McCoy (drafted 2009).

The only other active player who's even close to reaching either is Derrick Henry, who has 55 TDs but would have to play at least 3-4 more years at a high level to reach 10k yards. 

NFL observers all basically agree that the era of the "featured back" is over and running backs will have to distinguish themselves in a committee approach and as pass-catches to thrive in the current NFL. 

So what does that mean for picking out the all-time greats at the position moving forward? Are the standards going to be the same as they've been in the past, or will they be adjusted to reflect the new reality?

 

edit: Just to clarify - I know that it often takes more than a decade to compile HOF numbers at any position. But you can typically identify future HOFers after 5-6 years of high-level play. The difference with RBs nowadays is that their productive windows have gotten considerably shorter because of the way teams view them as largely expendable, even at elite levels.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Starless

[Bolts223]

I mean Christian McCaffrey, Zeke and Barkley could all easily have HOF careers when it is all said and done.

They just need more years of being elite RB's.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Bolts223

[Apparition]

3 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

I mean Christian McCaffrey, Zeke and Barkley could all easily have HOF careers when it is all said and done.

They just need more years of being elite RB's.

Do you really trust that, though? Barkley and McCaffrey have already had what should be prime years cut short by injury, and Zeke's production dropped precipitously last season. Look at what happened to guys like Gurley and David Johnson. Or hell, LeVeon Bell. RBs just don't last anymore. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Starless

[Bolts223]

1 minute ago, Starless said:

Do you really trust that, though? Barkley and McCaffrey have already had what should be prime years cut short by injury, and Zeke's production dropped precipitously last season. 

Do I trust it? I think McCaffrey has a very high chance to have a super elite career because of his ability to be an elite pass catcher as well as be a really good RB.

My point is that a lot of RB's that have been drafted since like 2016-2017 could end up having HOF careers but it is just too early to say for some of them.

[LaFellSBXLIXMVP]

Even tho you're probably right on featured back era being over the title doesn't say as much as you may have thought.

The vast majority of players need around 10 years of body work to reach the HOF so in reality you're saying that no HOF RBs were drafted in ~2010/2011. But yeh, from now on RBs that can't catch/run basic routes wont last much in the NFL.

[CP3MVP]

Running backs are never going to get the high volume career numbers  like they did in the past so it’s going to be interested in how the HOF voting shakes out 

[Roninho]

2 hours ago, Starless said:

Do you really trust that, though? Barkley and McCaffrey have already had what should be prime years cut short by injury, and Zeke's production dropped precipitously last season. Look at what happened to guys like Gurley and David Johnson. Or hell, LeVeon Bell. RBs just don't last anymore. 

It really depends on a guy like Zeke wanting to keep going for long. It's not like Lynch did anything special during his Oakland days, but those years help a lot in adding stats. 

[Hunter2_1]

Frustrating Barkley is always injured. He's HOF calibre for sure. Unreal player

[Apparition]

11 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

Even tho you're probably right on featured back era being over the title doesn't say as much as you may have thought.

The vast majority of players need around 10 years of body work to reach the HOF so in reality you're saying that no HOF RBs were drafted in ~2010/2011. But yeh, from now on RBs that can't catch/run basic routes wont last much in the NFL.

Yeah, I took that into account. What I'm saying is that you can typically identify what players are on a HOF trajectory after 5-6 years, but the vast majority of RBs, including really good ones, fall off their productive peak a lot more quickly than other positions, and a lot more quickly than they did 15-20 years ago. 

Used to be that a RB's prime would last 5-7 years, whereas nowadays it's more like 3-4. 

Not to mention that rushing yards are down league-wide. Used to be that guys needed 1200 yards to even sniff a pro bowl berth, but these days it's not uncommon for guys who finish the year with under 1000 yards on the ground to get voted in. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Starless

[SalvadorsDeli]

Kamara and CMC are both on HoF paths right now. 

[MWil23]

Let’s wait a couple years given the success of Henry and Chubb too.

[scar988]

12 hours ago, Starless said:

Typically, the minimum threshold for HOF induction as a RB is 10,000 rushing yards and 60 rushing TDs.

The last 4 players to cross these thresholds have been Frank Gore (drafted 2005), Adrian Peterson (drafted 2007), Marshawn Lynch (drafted 2007) and LeSean McCoy (drafted 2009).

The only other active player who's even close to reaching either is Derrick Henry, who has 55 TDs but would have to play at least 3-4 more years at a high level to reach 10k yards. 

NFL observers all basically agree that the era of the "featured back" is over and running backs will have to distinguish themselves in a committee approach and as pass-catches to thrive in the current NFL. 

So what does that mean for picking out the all-time greats at the position moving forward? Are the standards going to be the same as they've been in the past, or will they be adjusted to reflect the new reality?

 

edit: Just to clarify - I know that it often takes more than a decade to compile HOF numbers at any position. But you can typically identify future HOFers after 5-6 years of high-level play. The difference with RBs nowadays is that their productive windows have gotten considerably shorter because of the way teams view them as largely expendable, even at elite levels.

Looking at yards from scrimmage vs. rushing yards is going to be the way to go from here. Running backs are so valuable in the passing game nowadays, it's the only way to make it fair. if you asked me, anyone over 15,000 yards from scrimmage and over 65 total TDs belongs in the hall of fame. That'd put guys who belong in there like:

Frank Gore

Larry Fitzgerald

Adrian Peterson

Tiki Barber

Warrick Dunn

Steven Jackson

Steve Smith Sr.

and LeSean McCoy with an outside push for Ricky Watters, Fred Taylor and Matt Forte.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/yds_from_scrimmage_career.htm

Edited February 11, 2021 by scar988

[Apparition]

1 minute ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Kamara and CMC are both on HoF paths right now. 

Kamara is one of the reasons I made this post. He's easily one of the elite offensive skill players in the league, but when you look at just his raw rushing totals they don't exactly scream "Hall of Fame RB." So I'm left wondering if voters will adjust to the current trends and vote in guys who routinely gain 1500 yards from scrimmage in a season, but never post elite rushing or receiving totals individually. 

Guys like Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson would frequently have great receiving numbers as RBs but they also would regularly eclipse 1200 rushing yards and 10 TDs, and Kamara has yet to cross the 1000-yard rushing threshold in a season. 

[scar988]

Just now, Starless said:

Kamara is one of the reasons I made this post. He's easily one of the elite offensive skill players in the league, but when you look at just his raw rushing totals they don't exactly scream "Hall of Fame RB." So I'm left wondering if voters will adjust to the current trends and vote in guys who routinely gain 1500 yards from scrimmage in a season, but never post elite rushing or receiving totals individually. 

Guys like Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson would frequently have great receiving numbers as RBs but they also would regularly eclipse 1200 rushing yards and 10 TDs, and Kamara has yet to cross the 1000-yard rushing threshold in a season. 

Which is why Yards from Scrimmage should be the benchmark. Not rushing yards.

[VanS]

1 minute ago, Starless said:

Kamara is one of the reasons I made this post. He's easily one of the elite offensive skill players in the league, but when you look at just his raw rushing totals they don't exactly scream "Hall of Fame RB." So I'm left wondering if voters will adjust to the current trends and vote in guys who routinely gain 1500 yards from scrimmage in a season, but never post elite rushing or receiving totals individually. 

Guys like Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson would frequently have great receiving numbers as RBs but they also would regularly eclipse 1200 rushing yards and 10 TDs, and Kamara has yet to cross the 1000-yard rushing threshold in a season. 

TDs matter too.  And Kamara has been elite at that.  Also he's made the Pro Bowl every year.  After a while those accolades accumulate.  Also he is part of this new era of receiving RBs being en vogue.  If he keeps up his current pace until he's 30 he will be a Hall of Famer.