Raiders sign WR John Brown

[Mr Raider]

6 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

Brown has had better stats than Agholor but not by that much. Agholor also has an ascending trajectory and Brown a descending.  

John Brown YD/G 50 TDs/G .32 

Nelson Agholor YD/G 40 TD/G .3

I would not would not chase either player this early in FA.  I am not against signing either player but it is the circumstances.  If some other team wanted to steal either player from me and over pay then go ahead.  Instead we overpaid for Brown.  He is coming off a bad year were he did not look right when he was able to play last year.  Now that we signed him I hope he does well but I would bet on it.  The only reason why I see him putting up stats next year is because Carr has to look his way.  

I disagree with this. Agahlor was on a downward trajectory. Started off his career with 2 seasons of sub 370 yards, sub 40 catch seasons, then had a third and fourth season of around 60 catch, 740 yard seasons, 4-8 TD season, then fell off hard (from that pretty modest two years of production) to a 39 catch, 363 yard, 3 TD season, in the last season of his rookie deal. If he was viewed as an ascending player we wouldn't have got him as a total afterthought, veteran minimum type of player. Especially when you consider he was a former first round pick, those guys even if they haven't lived up to the hype get more money than that, particularly if viewed as ascending. 

Brown on the other hand started off his rookie year with comparable numbers to Nelson's best seasons (48 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TDs), had a sophomore year that is better than any Nelson has had, including his season here (65 receptions, 1000 yards, 7 TDs). He then had a down year where he played in 15 games (but his down year was still better than Nelson's 1st, 2nd, and 5th year, another season that was shortened by injuries, before bouncing back with two years of 700+ yards, and 5 TDs. One of which was a 72 reception, 1060 yards, 6 TD season. Which again would be a career year for Nelson. Heck even last year he played 9 games and had 33 receptions, 458 yards, and 3 TDs. Projected out to a full season that's better production than Nelson had last season for us. 

Brown's down years are superior to Nelson's. His best years are better and more well rounded, and he has enough history to suggest his best is a 1000 yard year as opposed to Nelson's best being an 800 year. And Brown's worst year will likely lead to bigger contributions. 

Nelson is VASTLY overpaid with his current deal. Brown is a bargain. Brown is being paid (his base salary) in the same range or less than Allen Hurns, Keelan Cole, Willie Snead, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson, Danny Amendola, Zach Pascal, close to Matt Slater. He isn't overpaid. 

Meanwhile Nelson is now being paid close (within a couple million per year) to the likes of Stephon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd, TY Hilton, Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Cooper Cupp, Davante Parker, Robby Anderson. 

Brown is being paid below fair market value, making comparable money to guys he has consistently out produced. Nelson is being overpaid close to the group of receivers he's two tiers below. 

The injuries are a concern for Brown. But even with that factored in its a FAR better signing. You might not love Brown the player, but he's shown more consistency than NA has, has shown to be better in their best years, and is now making not even half of what Nelson will even if he hits all his incentives. 

This was an absolute win by the front office. Give me Brown at his salary and another depth guy for sure. I'd take Brown over Nelson if I had to pick one at the same pay. 

[drfrey13]

7 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

I disagree with this. Agahlor was on a downward trajectory. Started off his career with 2 seasons of sub 370 yards, sub 40 catch seasons, then had a third and fourth season of around 60 catch, 740 yard seasons, 4-8 TD season, then fell off hard (from that pretty modest two years of production) to a 39 catch, 363 yard, 3 TD season, in the last season of his rookie deal. If he was viewed as an ascending player we wouldn't have got him as a total afterthought, veteran minimum type of player. Especially when you consider he was a former first round pick, those guys even if they haven't lived up to the hype get more money than that, particularly if viewed as ascending. 

Brown on the other hand started off his rookie year with comparable numbers to Nelson's best seasons (48 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TDs), had a sophomore year that is better than any Nelson has had, including his season here (65 receptions, 1000 yards, 7 TDs). He then had a down year where he played in 15 games (but his down year was still better than Nelson's 1st, 2nd, and 5th year, another season that was shortened by injuries, before bouncing back with two years of 700+ yards, and 5 TDs. One of which was a 72 reception, 1060 yards, 6 TD season. Which again would be a career year for Nelson. Heck even last year he played 9 games and had 33 receptions, 458 yards, and 3 TDs. Projected out to a full season that's better production than Nelson had last season for us. 

Brown's down years are superior to Nelson's. His best years are better and more well rounded, and he has enough history to suggest his best is a 1000 yard year as opposed to Nelson's best being an 800 year. And Brown's worst year will likely lead to bigger contributions. 

Nelson is VASTLY overpaid with his current deal. Brown is a bargain. Brown is being paid (his base salary) in the same range or less than Allen Hurns, Keelan Cole, Willie Snead, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson, Danny Amendola, Zach Pascal, close to Matt Slater. He isn't overpaid. 

Meanwhile Nelson is now being paid close (within a couple million per year) to the likes of Stephon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd, TY Hilton, Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Cooper Cupp, Davante Parker, Robby Anderson. 

Brown is being paid below fair market value, making comparable money to guys he has consistently out produced. Nelson is being overpaid close to the group of receivers he's two tiers below. 

The injuries are a concern for Brown. But even with that factored in its a FAR better signing. You might not love Brown the player, but he's shown more consistency than NA has, has shown to be better in their best years, and is now making not even half of what Nelson will even if he hits all his incentives. 

This was an absolute win by the front office. Give me Brown at his salary and another depth guy for sure. I'd take Brown over Nelson if I had to pick one at the same pay. 

NA is going from a bad season in 2019 to a good season in 2020 = Ascending

JB is going from a good season in 2019 to a bad season in 2020 = Descending

Take away last year and I go with John Brown easily.  I like Brown but after coming back from the injury last year he looked like something was wrong.  That is why I see Brown as a greater risk.  Agholor at $13 or Brown at up to $5.5 I will take Brown.  Agholor after 2019 at $1 vs Brown after 2020 at up to $5.5 I take Agholor and that is without taking into consideration what he ended up doing.  I actually think Brown's stats will support the contract but not because his play will elevate the team but rather Carr having limited targets just like he had last year.  That is why I believe Agholor posted the stats he did which just as efficient as Ruggs only Agholor received more targets.  My argument is not an Agholor vs Brown however.  A player like Brown after a year like he had last year is not the type of plyer I am pursuing on day 3 of FA and I am not offering him up to $5.5 either.  Only way I am signing lower tier players in the first week is if I am resigning guys or they are players who want to take a big discount.  Teams normally pay premiums to sign players in the first week.  We should be focused on fixing other areas that are in worse shape.  After we plug more holes you offer players like Brown what you have left.

Agholor is very overpaid and will most likely regret signing with NE.  I am willing to bet both sides are not happy at the end of the year and the only person that is happy is Agholor's agent.

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Jerry said:

I agree. Just wish he stayed. I would've been fine paying him 8M a season.

And he got $5M more from New England and likely has a better chance to win a Super Bowl there over the next two years then he did here. 

[Jeremy408]

 

Edited March 18, 2021 by Jeremy408

[Rolni]

Better signing, then Agholor was last year this time around.

I like this.

He gives speed, he can play multiple positions and definately could help Ruggs, who has a pretty similar skill set.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Rolni
misspel

[G]

Great speed will make him a crucial target for Josh Allen's deep throwing tendencies.'

Problem is that Carr doesn't have those same tendencies. LOL  Maybe THIS year. LOL

[Jerry]

8 minutes ago, G said:

Great speed will make him a crucial target for Josh Allen's deep throwing tendencies.'

Problem is that Carr doesn't have those same tendencies. LOL  Maybe THIS year. LOL

I thought we got past the whole DC doesn't throw deep conversation.  Agholor was averaging like 18 yards a reception wasn't he?

[G]

6 minutes ago, Jerry said:

I thought we got past the whole DC doesn't throw deep conversation.  Agholor was averaging like 18 yards a reception wasn't he?

I'm one of Carr's all time supporters but when watching it really doesn't seem like he does that much. He does do it but not like Allen does. Carr is a tamed gunslinger and Allen still is one. Carr was in 2016 or at least it seemed like it. I think those who wanted to replace him had very valid points on how Carr plays it 'safe' so we don't have many INT's but probably not as many TD's if he really wanted to take more 'shots' and hopefully he will.

[Jerry]

2 minutes ago, G said:

I'm one of Carr's all time supporters but when watching it really doesn't seem like he does that much. He does do it but not like Allen does. Carr is a tamed gunslinger and Allen still is one. Carr was in 2016 or at least it seemed like it. I think those who wanted to replace him had very valid points on how Carr plays it 'safe' so we don't have many INT's but probably not as many TD's if he really wanted to take more 'shots' and hopefully he will.

We need our defense to be able to make stops and create turnovers before he turns back into a gunslinger IMO.  He knew he could rely on his defense in 2016.  Now he tries to be near perfect and play it as safe as possible because our defense has been so unreliable.

[Mr Raider]

On 3/17/2021 at 11:53 PM, drfrey13 said:

NA is going from a bad season in 2019 to a good season in 2020 = Ascending

JB is going from a good season in 2019 to a bad season in 2020 = Descending

Take away last year and I go with John Brown easily.  I like Brown but after coming back from the injury last year he looked like something was wrong.  That is why I see Brown as a greater risk.  Agholor at $13 or Brown at up to $5.5 I will take Brown.  Agholor after 2019 at $1 vs Brown after 2020 at up to $5.5 I take Agholor and that is without taking into consideration what he ended up doing.  I actually think Brown's stats will support the contract but not because his play will elevate the team but rather Carr having limited targets just like he had last year.  That is why I believe Agholor posted the stats he did which just as efficient as Ruggs only Agholor received more targets.  My argument is not an Agholor vs Brown however.  A player like Brown after a year like he had last year is not the type of plyer I am pursuing on day 3 of FA and I am not offering him up to $5.5 either.  Only way I am signing lower tier players in the first week is if I am resigning guys or they are players who want to take a big discount.  Teams normally pay premiums to sign players in the first week.  We should be focused on fixing other areas that are in worse shape.  After we plug more holes you offer players like Brown what you have left.

Agholor is very overpaid and will most likely regret signing with NE.  I am willing to bet both sides are not happy at the end of the year and the only person that is happy is Agholor's agent.

I disagree with the first part, mainly because I don't consider a player ascending after one good but not great year and another descending because of one ok year when he was playing but missed half a season due to injuries. The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, but I still factor consistency about almost everything else. And that means greater than a single campaign. Especially when the other years were downright pedestrian for the guy coming off the good but not elite year and the guy coming off the injury shortened year has had higher highs. 

Based off of one year entirely, you can make that argument I guess, but not for me personally. I have seen far too many one hit wonders to call a player ascending because he had almost 900 yards receiving in his 6th year in the league. 

I will agree with you on the last part. Brown probably isn't the type of player I rush to sign either. But after the tags and whatnot the WR crop wasn't elite, and I could see them viewing Brown as a better but older version of Nelson and though he was a great fit here and wanted to get him signed so we could devote more attention to other more pressing areas. I think WR is a spot with our run game, Waller, and the young guys they are banking on stepping up is a relatively easy spot for us to fill to get a guy that can do what Nelson can do. A true number one is harder to find obviously and could open up more doors for our offense but I think Gruden has proved offensively he can make it work at a good enough level to win with Jacobs and Waller as the focal point. And they obviously thought very highly of Ruggs a year ago. They have to give him his shot. It may have been the wrong call, but we have to find out one way or another. I think Ruggs will have a similar stat line to what Nelson had this upcoming season. Hopefully better. So I can agree we probably didn't need to rush to sign him and maybe could have gotten him cheaper in a few weeks. No real argument there. But at the end of the day going off his base pay I think we got him for under what his ability would earn if all things were equal. So it's tough for me to be mad about it. Had we rushed to pay him the same contract Nelson got or something I would be right there with you. But simply looking at his base pay? Seems like they think he is a guy that can be at least what Nelson was if Ruggs isn't ready, they signed him for less than what his skills dictate, and can now move on to other areas that are harder to fill and more important overall. So I'm 100% on board with it. Especially for a one year deal. We aren't married to him, but we also don't need to feel pressured to overpay one of the bigger names, or sign someone we liked considerably less later in the process just to save a couple million bucks. 

[oakdb36]

 

[agarcia34]

Said he turned down more money to come here. Which I’m sure came from the Texans 

[RaidersAreOne]

Vic:

John Brown said the #Raiders “offense is set up nicely and I just want to be a part of it.” Derek Carr is “outstanding” and Brown said he turned down more money from another team.

[BackinBlack]

no no no, you have to be an idiot to think carr is good, let alone "outstanding" as many here have pointed out. he is the only one accountable for us being bad 🤣

[Jeremy408]

Imagine that