3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Frankly, I don't care whether they are 'congruent' or not. That's what I myself thought while watching. I didn't rely on any reports (and never said anything about reports), just my own two eyes. It was my perception and nothing else. 

Interesting take with regards to answering a question on where he was projected to go, but fair play that he didn't specifically ask for where he was projected to go by people at large. 

[Forge]

I thought he was going to be QB5, going somewhere in the 19-22 area, @big9erfan

Mel Kiper had him at 15 in Feb and 15 again in March. Qb 5. 

Todd McShay had him 9 in early march via a trade up. Qb 5. 

Daniel Jeremiah had him 28 in Feb, which was the last one he did until after the trade when he had Mac   at #3. 

Bucky Brooks had him pick 32 on march 23

Dane Brugler had him 28 in Feb before the trade, the athletic beat writers had him going 20 in Feb, and 30 in march. 

 

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, Justone2 said:

 There is a reason why he was the most accurate at throwing middle and deep and not short. Its because he just isn't as good at those quick screens because of his release.

 

Another possibility might be explained by these diagrams which you can find here  https://withthefirstpick.com/2021/02/24/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-fields-accuracy/

Hint: It might be because Fields is almost as accurate at balls over 30 yards, intermediate balls, and long out routes as Jones is at zero-yarders. So why not take a shot at 30 or more rather than throw a few yards behind the line and home for lots of RAC. Also in case you don't want to read the article Jones' completion rate on short passes (including lots of "gimmes" behind the los) was a little over 1% better than Fields. For all intents and purposes the same as Jones.

Here's a scatter shot of where Jones threw his passes and which ones were accurate, incomplete, complete, etc. It is virtually solid blue (on target and complete) right around the los. His accuracy deep and to the outside was poor compared to the other top QBs.  They said that as the year wore on he threw fewer and fewer deep balls and long outs. He only threw 7 passes beyond 30 yards in his last 5 games. They had him rated 5th for most on target passes. So if doing the things they do in the NFL means loading up on screen passes and short crossing routes and avoiding long throws and out patterns then he's the guy.

j

They had Fields rated first by a slight margin over Lawrence. He was on target on 80% of his passes to the outside and over 80% on his deep passes. He was 15 out of 18 on passes over 30 yards. That's not much below the percentage Jones hit on all his short passes. As for short passes, he hit 86.4% compared to Jones 87.7%. So I'm not sure the reason they didn't throw more screens is because he's bad at short passes. Here's what his scatter diagram looks like. So if doing NFL-like things means driving the ball to the sidelines, hitting intermidiate crossing routes, and mixing the occasional on-the-money deep ball, in addition to 85+% accuracy on short balls, then he's the guy.

Edited April 9, 2021 by big9erfan

[Justone2]

20 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

Another possibility might be explained by these diagrams which you can find here  https://withthefirstpick.com/2021/02/24/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-fields-accuracy/

Hint: It might be because Fields is almost as accurate at balls over 30 yards, intermediate balls, and long out routes as Jones is at zero-yarders. So why not take a shot at 30 or more rather than throw a few yards behind the line and home for lots of RAC. Also in case you don't want to read the article Jones' completion rate on short passes (including lots of "gimmes" behind the los) was a little over 1% better than Fields. For all intents and purposes the same as Jones

Always fun when gains on short throws are called gimmes. Those passes need to be on time and accurate to even have a chance to succeed. Yeah you need less arm strength but the margin for error is slimmer because a slight overthrow on a 30 yard bomb usually doesn't change much where if you sail a "Gimme" you either get intercepted or its incomplete. If its a gimme every QB would succeed at those which just isn't the case.

 

I am not even arguing Fields is a less accurate passer than Jones because he is not. But on screens Jones is a better QB at this point in their development. Part of that could be that Jones has way more experience on them or that the players he had at his disposal are way more suited for that type of offense. Fields is a great thrower on intermediate and deep routes and thats great and a good reason why OSU called the plays they did. Fields like i said multiple times now has all the physical tools he needs. Both athletically as in arm talent but that doesn't mean he has no flaws. And one of them is that his release is longer than ideal which makes it harder for him in the short game. If your release is like Jimmy G you will always have a advantage in the short game because the time between the moment you start to throw to actually getting the ball to you receiver getting the ball is shorter and on those short plays every second(or even less) counts. And from a mental standpoint he has to go from one of the least NFL-like offenses to a NFL offense. Can he do that? Probably yes but as fans you don't know if he can do that and in his case he might be better off sitting a year behind Jimmy to fully grasp Shanahans offense instead of being thrown in there. 

[big9erfan]

I understand what you are saying. Some short passes do include touch and a degree or skill. And I agree with you that Jones is great at those. Those aren't the ones I'm talking about.

I said "including gimmes" because not all short passes require the same level of skill There a ton Alabama plays where  a receiver or two step out to block and one of the receivers takes a step or two back. The QB turns and makes a very short, very easy throw. Or, simple swing passes to a guy in the flat with no one near him because of misdirection. Those are the ones I'm referring to as gimmes. They are not overly difficult. Anyone who throws a lot of those is likely to have an inflated completion percentage over another QB who throws only a few of those. That was really my point. Jones might look like a guy with a high completion percentage. But it's inflated compared to what he will be required to throw at the NFL level because of the unually high number or short, relatively easy passes he makes.

FWIW - you suggested OSU might not throw as many screens as Alabama because Fields is not good at them. That works both ways. It could just as easily be true that Alabama throws so many because Jones is not very good at throwing longer balls.

[sherm]

5 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

Man either these media people will dunk on everyone if Jones is the pick.......or the fans will have a Field day with them being wrong. Gonna get ugly either way...lol

[49ers fan]

2 hours ago, sherm said:

Man either these media people will dunk on everyone if Jones is the pick.......or the fans will have a Field day with them being wrong. Gonna get ugly either way...lol

why does this guy think we care about him? lol

[Forge]

Forge's arbitrarily determined percentage rankings:

Fields - 76%

Mac 19%

Lance - 5%

Feel good today

[big9erfan]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

I thought he was going to be QB5, going somewhere in the 19-22 area, @big9erfan

Mel Kiper had him at 15 in Feb and 15 again in March. Qb 5. 

Todd McShay had him 9 in early march via a trade up. Qb 5. 

Daniel Jeremiah had him 28 in Feb, which was the last one he did until after the trade when he had Mac   at #3. 

Bucky Brooks had him pick 32 on march 23

Dane Brugler had him 28 in Feb before the trade, the athletic beat writers had him going 20 in Feb, and 30 in march. 

 

Thanks. Seems odd that thinking the 49ers might pick him at 3 has caused so many to up their ranking for him. Hard to imagine his pro days thrilled everyone so much that they moved him up so high. 

[Forge]

55 minutes ago, Forge said:

Forge's arbitrarily determined percentage rankings:

Fields - 76%

Mac 19%

Lance - 5%

Feel good today

It's going to be awkward when I'm down a stack at the table in an hour and I'm suddenly like "it's Mac Jones, 98.3%! I know it!"

 

[49erurtaza]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Forge's arbitrarily determined percentage rankings:

Fields - 76%

Mac 19%

Lance - 5%

Feel good today

I have a feeling we will be high on Fields next week then after Lance has his 2nd proday it'll be him the media will be running with. I'm never trusting media on draft rumors ever again. Lol

 

[Forge]

Just now, 49erurtaza said:

I have a feeling we will be high on Fields next week then after Lance has his 2nd proday it'll be him the media will be running with. I'm never trusting media on draft rumors ever again. Lol

 

I will almost assuredly give Lance a bump at some point. Right now I'm just really not feeling it. So much projecting and while the arm is a cannon his deep ball is pretty bad and his accuracy is spotty at best.  I can't get over how unnatural his feel when throwing seems

[big9erfan]

O think this misconception had been put to rest already, but just in case I saw this at NBC sports today

For those who believe Fields is a "one-read quarterback," the Ohio State signal-caller threw past his first read on 19 percent of throws last season, the most of any QB in the class. And Fields was the most accurate of any QB in the class on second-read throws.

[JIllg]

7 hours ago, Forge said:

I will almost assuredly give Lance a bump at some point. Right now I'm just really not feeling it. So much projecting and while the arm is a cannon his deep ball is pretty bad and his accuracy is spotty at best.  I can't get over how unnatural his feel when throwing seems

He's so good at everything except throwing the ball where he wants it. If the ball went where his mechanics (which look crisp to me) took him, he'd be first of the three on my board. I like his rhythm and feel for pocket maneuvering. But accuracy is the thing I'm not screwing with. He's behind Jones for me, if only by a touch because the running element gives him a similar (if very different looking) floor to Jones's short passing work.

[49erurtaza]

Lol 🤣