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Round 4: Pick 142; Royce Newman, OG Ole Miss


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On 5/15/2021 at 11:58 AM, packfanfb said:

Someone explain to me how Newman doesn't end up a first ballot HOFer...

A bit of an awkward interview. He answered the questions well enough but kept itching and scratching his face and wore gloves for the whole interview?  He did say the mullet was here to stay so that’s a big +to balance out the possible serial killer vibe. 

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1 hour ago, Refugee said:

A bit of an awkward interview. He answered the questions well enough but kept itching and scratching his face and wore gloves for the whole interview?  He did say the mullet was here to stay so that’s a big +to balance out the possible serial killer vibe. 

Wait, serial killer vibe is bad? I thought that was good, but that's bad? No, serial killer vibe is good. 

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Will be interesting to see how he develops.  All the "versatility" talk may communicate "not good enough to ever be good or start at anything".  Maybe the prospect of being anti-awful 8th/7th man would still be enough to create a useful multi-year career, and to be good value for a guy selected right in front of round 5.  Or maybe he's got more decent-starter potential than we know, who knows?  I think he referenced "footwork" and "agility", as have scouting reports; those can go a long way.  And perhaps he's reasonably-well suited to be a motion blocker in the run game, even if not a powerful drive-blocker?  Perhaps a good technique, get-in-the-way pass blocker; even if perhaps vulnerable to bull-rush?  Guy's arms aren't going to get longer or his hands bigger; at his age, there'd seem to be less time for weight-room strength-improvement than for a 21-year-old draftee.  Still, strength can be improved to variable extent, more easily than improving quickness or feet.  So if the latter are good, perhaps the strength will prove to be playably adequate?

Hard to guess how the line will play out over the next several years.  Patrick's contract expires after this year, Turner's after 22.  Will either or both be resigned?  If either or perhaps both guard positions need to be replaced, between Runyan, Newman, Stapaniek, and VanLanen, who knows where Newman will end up stacking?  Hard to anticipate how all those guys will shake out, Newman included.

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Every pick is an individual and what they become is yet to be determined, but looking at draft history can give us the potential of what could be expected. These are the OL drafted by the Packers in the 4th and 5th rounds in the past decade plus. 

2018 - Cole Madison (5th)

2014 - Corey Linsley (5th)

2013 - David Bakhtiari (4th) , JC Tretter (4th)

2010 - Marshall Newhouse (5th)

2009 - TJ Lang (4th) , Jamon Meredith (5th) 

2008 - Josh Sitton (4th) , Breno Giacomini (5th)

  

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That's a stunning record of success for 4th rounders.  Even Allan Barbre, the 2007 4th rounder, ended up having a lengthy journeyman career, even if mostly after the Packers did their D+D with him first.  The past success rate speak to possibility for sure; would be awesome if Newman outperformed his draft position.  I don't think it speaks to probability.  You might fortuitously roll four dice and get four 6's; that doesn't necessarily mean the next die has any increased odds of being another 6.  Hopefully we've just got D+D brilliance that is extraordinary, and Newman will play out as another example.  

I think classifying by round is an iffy game; as a sandwich pick, I think Newman could as well be remembered as a 5th rounder as a 4th rounder.  Our win rate with 5th rounders doesn't seem that great, although perhaps even going 1-for-5 (Linsley) is still pretty awesome for 5th round drafting. 

As a sandwich pick, Newman at 142 was taken later than any of those other 4th-round success picks:  Bakhti 109, Lang 109, Barbre 119; Tretter 122; Sitton 135; Newman 142.  

 

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3 hours ago, R T said:

Every pick is an individual and what they become is yet to be determined, but looking at draft history can give us the potential of what could be expected. These are the OL drafted by the Packers in the 4th and 5th rounds in the past decade plus. 

2018 - Cole Madison (5th)

2014 - Corey Linsley (5th)

2013 - David Bakhtiari (4th) , JC Tretter (4th)

2010 - Marshall Newhouse (5th)

2009 - TJ Lang (4th) , Jamon Meredith (5th) 

2008 - Josh Sitton (4th) , Breno Giacomini (5th)

  

Its funny my two favorites were also two that were no good at all. I loved Cole Madison and Jamon Meredith coming out of college. 

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1 hour ago, craig said:

That's a stunning record of success for 4th rounders.  Even Allan Barbre, the 2007 4th rounder, ended up having a lengthy journeyman career, even if mostly after the Packers did their D+D with him first.  The past success rate speak to possibility for sure; would be awesome if Newman outperformed his draft position.  I don't think it speaks to probability.  You might fortuitously roll four dice and get four 6's; that doesn't necessarily mean the next die has any increased odds of being another 6.  Hopefully we've just got D+D brilliance that is extraordinary, and Newman will play out as another example.  

I think classifying by round is an iffy game; as a sandwich pick, I think Newman could as well be remembered as a 5th rounder as a 4th rounder.  Our win rate with 5th rounders doesn't seem that great, although perhaps even going 1-for-5 (Linsley) is still pretty awesome for 5th round drafting. 

As a sandwich pick, Newman at 142 was taken later than any of those other 4th-round success picks:  Bakhti 109, Lang 109, Barbre 119; Tretter 122; Sitton 135; Newman 142.  

 

Well it depends on what you call a successful pick. Newhouse was still playing last season for the Titans, he has had a 10 year career and played in a 133 games to date. I don't know of any front offices that wouldn't call that a successful 5th round pick. Giacomini was a 5th round pick in 2008 and was a 16 game starter at RT for the Seahawks, Jets and Texans in his career. Meredith played in 67 games as a journeyman playing for 8 different teams.   

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14 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Its funny my two favorites were also two that were no good at all. I loved Cole Madison and Jamon Meredith coming out of college. 

Oddly enough they were the 2 that were outliers in the agility testing scores that the Packers normally follow. 

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2 minutes ago, R T said:

Well it depends on what you call a successful pick. Newhouse was still playing last season for the Titans, he has had a 10 year career and played in a 133 games to date. I don't know of any front offices that wouldn't call that a successful 5th round pick. Giacomini was a 5th round pick in 2008 and was a 16 game starter at RT for the Seahawks, Jets and Texans in his career. Meredith played in 67 games as a journeyman playing for 8 different teams.   

Newhouse is an enigma. He was good enough to be a starting OT, but when he made mistakes well....yeah...I was with some colleagues who were die-hard Giants fans when he was with them and they couldn't believe we won a Super Bowl with him on the roster. Granted, he was a rookie but...

I also remember Breno with the Jets in particular.

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