2021 Baker thread

[BrownsDog23]

 

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

8 minutes ago, BrownsDog23 said:

 

 

Well luckily for everyone he’ll have plenty of good defenses ahead of him and no Odell as a crutch so by the end of next year we should have a pretty good idea what he’s all about.

[mtmmike]

36 minutes ago, BrownsDog23 said:

 

 

He put 40 on Roadkill and tinman for the first in 20 years I want to see more.

[Kiwibrown]

I got off the Baker bandwagon the 2nd game vs the Bengals last year. He played a horrible 1st half or so and then came roaring back throwing 5 tds including an amazing ball to dpj. 

I have been on the Baker bandwagon ever since. 

 

This organization has done him so few favors since we have drafted him. One of the biggest errors in judgment was getting obj. Square beg in a round hole, he didnt fit the city, he is an LA guy or NY guy, he was bigger than the browns, in his own mind. 

The jury is still out on whether he will be the qbotf, I really hope we can find another reciever for him to connect with, preferably a 6'3" boundary guy

[bruceb]

21 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

preferably a 6'8" boundary guy

fify

[Empire Lies]

  

On 11/4/2021 at 2:41 PM, BrownsDog23 said:

 

 

That feeling when you see the contextual analytical data finally make the rounds on Browns Twitter ..

 

---------------------------

TOO LONG; DON'T READ (**Trash, Long Post Alert**)

6 of the 8 final games in 2020 came against 4 of the Top 5 Worst Teams in the League plus 2 came against the 11th Worst Team in the League and the Steelers Back-ups --- Jacksonville (Worst Team in the league), Jets (2nd Worst Team in the NFL), Texans (4th Worst Team in the NFL), Eagles (5th Worst Team in the NFL), Giants (11th Worst Team in the NFL), and the Steelers Back-ups.

It's just too much dissonance for people to process when there's readily available feel-good narratives and data frames from the post week 7 data set that suggest Baker is the elite and/or top tier guy all Browns fans have dreamed about.

It's the hardest thing for a fanbase so beaten down for years that has been forced to stare into the dark cold bottomless abyss of terrible QB play to come to grips with the fact that the franchise QB might not be a next level guy and to really dig deep into the numbers and film study for what's real and what's not.

Mix that with some real negative environmental challenges Baker has had to battle through during his career plus the availability of a polarizing personalities/convenient scapegoat like OBJ, and you have the right potent mixture to fuel people ignoring inconvenient truths and hard to face aspects of Baker's football play reality (i.e., Baker has some real troubling struggles that may point to him not being the guy).

But while nothing is certain and the jury is still out, the reason many of us have not jumped on the Baker is elite/top tier/the guy bandwagon was the data and football context behind the "post-OBJ" 7-8 week sample size in 2020 which saw Baker not only face some of the worst defenses in the league, but also the teams in the league literally with some of the worst offenses and special teams units as well as measured by DVOA Efficiency and other analytical metrics.

Does that mean Baker's top tier play was fraudulent? Absolutely not. But his top tier play also wasn't top tier when it came to many other indices of top level QB play mainly performance under pressure. In that metric, Baker was 20th in the league even when people thought he was playing his best. 

The strongest case for Baker was the Ravens game. Baker threw a terrible INT late, but other than that was spectacular with Ball placement and big time throws whether pressure was present or not. The Ravens defense wasn't actually that good last year, but it's undeniable that Baker played well in a big game in big moments. The Titans game was really good to but the Browns team in general bulldozed the Titans. 

In the end, the landscape of the NFL QB has changed such that Baker Mayfield might just be good but not great. The question in the end is if that is good enough for the Browns and their aspirations, especially given the money commitment that's going to have to come sooner or later. The question of can Baker's play be replaced by a less expensive player. I have serious doubts that there's any clear path to upgrade/replace Baker in the short-term. So, at this point, all we can do is hope for the best and hope it breaks to the positive.

Analytical decision-making is about making better decisions under uncertainty. I don't think there's going to be a clear signal of "absolutely 100% don't pay Baker he's not the guy" at the point when the Browns have to decide whether to pay him like a top tier QB b/c I think Baker plays well the rest of the season. Ultimately, Andrew Berry and co. are going to have to weigh the good with the bad and project some things but as of now I don't see Baker being that guy yet but hope he can prove otherwise in the near future.

----

  Baker Under Pressure last year analytics:

On 10/21/2021 at 1:09 PM, Empire Lies said:

In general, I've addressed those week 7 or week 9 breakdowns of Baker's play more specifically here in prior response to you that of course you didn't read (nor did I... F-those long posts,... wall of texts)

On 10/6/2021 at 6:19 PM, Empire Lies said:

 

Which is the true person, Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?

Such is the question of which version of Baker is the real Baker.

That’s because his the full body of work often possesses equal negatives to positives.

The conflict that people have about Baker represents the conflicting nature of his top level play clashing with his bottom basement performance.

The Relevant Analytical Comparison:

Let’s look at the “under pressure” analytics and overall performance metrics.

They don’t suggest exactly what you think they suggest.

I think you are mixing up some things and selectively attending to some metrics/analytics and forgetting other aspect of Baker’s performance. Specifically, that by only taking into account Baker’s best stretch in the 2^nd half of last season (week 7 and on), he was still only the 20^th ranked QB under pressure according to PFF. He was however much higher in other relevant metrics.

We’ve all seen in read the post bye week analytical breakdown of Baker’s performance. Typically, the breakdown has focused on Baker’s performance Week 7 through the postseason where he ranked second among quarterbacks in passing grade (91.8), fifth in big-time throw rate (6.6%) and first in turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%).

I.) PFF Overall Performance 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7)

Weeks 1-6 (26th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 57.3

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 3.9%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 5.6%

Weeks 7-DP (2nd in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 91.8

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 6.6%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 1.6%

 

II.) Under Pressure 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7)

Weeks 1-6 (36th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 32.9

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 0.0%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 6.2%

Weeks 7-DP (20th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 49.9

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 4.0%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 3.7%

 

The 4-game sample size of 24 passes under pressure this season is of similar but lower quality to Baker at his worst stretch last year before he and the offense figured things out. When someone says "and this is not a new trend," that means this negative trend has happened before. Therefore, the title of Petrak’s article isn’t wrong.

 

Here's Baker's pressure versus not PFF grades via a comparison to his peers this year

---------

Moment Pressure VS. Pocket Pressure: The Real Baker Issue

There's pressure as measured analytically by defensive rush effecting the QB.

To me, the most important pressure that effects Baker negatively can be related but is its own separate entity: Big Game and/or Big Moment Pressure.

I’ve made the points prior that’s the real concerning trend with Baker; that is, whether it be the fumbles against the Jets and Titans on game deciding plays. Or the pre-shoulder injury misses on 3 consecutive final drives against Kansas City and more (see below), Baker’s has as of yet to show he can consistently perform at a top level in those moments.

 In the end, the jury is out on Baker and there’s reason to believe that the offense will start to click as the season progresses. However, assuming that all is well and Baker’s performance has been sunshine and rainbows is a fantasy based dreamscape.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Empire Lies

[matt27j]

Just from  what I want I don't need Baker to be elite to pay him.

Just hold it down so the team can be consistently in it.

[Empire Lies]

15 minutes ago, matt27j said:

Just from  what I want I don't need Baker to be elite to pay him.

Just hold it down so the team can be consistently in it.

Indeed.

Question what does "pay him" mean exactly?

At this point, hardly anyone believes an Allen/Mahomes/Prescott/Watson type of contract which is $40 Million/Year Avg Salary with $120ish Million Guaranteed. Lamar Jackson likely is in line for that type of deal and Russell Wilson likely asks for some type of new money to put him back in the top 5 of QBs paid.

There's a pain point at which it seems better to go in a different direction than Baker in order to pay a QB far lesser and use the cost savings on other playes.

What is that pain point in dollars? Who knows ...

But then interesting question for GMs is it worth it to pay a guy like Kirk Cousins $30 Million to $35 Million a year with big front loaded guarantees when that GM knows that player has clear defined ceiling. Is that worth it? Does it make sense just to go a tier below that and use the money elsewhere?

Former and often cheeks GM Mike Tannanbaum said a lot of guys he's talked to in the league see the pain point on Baker at $20 Mill to $25 Mill. Who knows who he's talked to or how truthful and representative his claims are, but it's an interesting perspective.

The Browns best path forward is likely the Dak Prescott route where the team rides out the contract until the end to get all the data it possibly can on Baker before applying the franchise tag to Baker to get even more data. That means a real contract long-term would be 2 years away. Baker Mayfield would be 28 years old then and there may be enough data available at that point where the decision is far more clear. The only remaining question would be is Baker the type of guy that will ride it out until then or if he'll make the Browns play their hand sooner.

[Mega Ron]

Some people just want to watch the world burn.

Those people are odd.

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

“Pay him x amount” is a dumb conversation at this moment imo.

I just think letting things play out is all we can and should do.

”Baker, you’re our dude this year and next 100%.  Do your thing, play your game and we’ll figure it out when the time comes.”

If he balls out, no one cares what he costs. If not, but he’s solid and we can win with him, pay him handsomely (but not elite money) and keep building.

Continuity and consistency is huge in this league.  If we’re able to be a perennial playoff team, that’s great.  I’ll take a chip and a seat all day every day.

[brownie man]

I like go through progressions Baker. He can get a contract. 
 

that other version I’m not really trying to see him again 

[buno67]

50 minutes ago, brownie man said:

I like go through progressions Baker. He can get a contract. 
 

that other version I’m not really trying to see him again 

Well the OBJ version is gone, just give me the DPJ version

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

[Dawgpoun8017]

Baker to his nay sayers today 

[bruceb]

Think it helped that he shaved.