2021 QB Rankings (by the numbers, FINAL)

[Apparition]

McCorkle has really separated himself from the rookie pack.

[Blackstar12]

59 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Not to be a jerk, but are we really going to pretend that he's taking care of the ball after last week's worst INT I've ever seen and the OT INT as well?

Dude is in the prestigious club of throwing a Pick 6 with both hands.

He was doing so well protecting the ball heading into that game. 1 INT and 2 fumbles. That was inexcusable and horrible play. However yet again the Colts and Reich had a horrible game plan 51/16 pass to run ratio makes absolutely no sense. This has been all season thing with Reich he refuses to feed JT who’s one of the best RB’s in the league. Colts are 3-0 when he gets 100+ yards.

[JAF-N72EX]

@RandyMossIsBoss  Nice work. But for some reason I'm coming up with slightly different averages than you are.

I'd also suggest using DYAR as well. The metric does a better job of separating a players value from the team. Not that it would make a world of difference but a difference nevertheless.

 

Player	DVOA	RK	QBR	RK	PR	RK	ANY/A	RK	PFF	RK	EPA+CPOE	RK	Total AVG	RK	SD		DYAR	RK	Avg incl DYAR	RK
Matthew Stafford	39.00%	1	77.6	1	118.0	2	9.56	1	83.2	12	0.203	1	3.0	1	4.4		965	1	2.7	1
Tom Brady	26.80%	3	69.4	2	108.6	5	8.00	4	91.3	1	0.158	7	3.7	2	2.2		910	2	3.4	2
Russell Wilson	25.50%	4	62.6	6	125.3	1	9.12	2	90.3	2	0.157	8	3.8	3	2.7		332	10	4.7	3
Kyler Murray	23.50%	5	63.0	5	110.4	4	7.82	5	85.6	8	0.180	2	4.8	4	1.9		607	4	4.7	3
Dak Prescott	37.20%	2	57.6	11	115.0	3	8.43	3	83.0	13	0.171	4	6.0	5	4.7		752	3	5.6	5
Josh Allen	9.80%	9	62.0	7	103.1	9	7.61	8	84.7	10	0.162	5	8.0	6	1.8		389	9	8.1	8
Derek Carr	14.40%	6	60.6	9	101.2	11	7.67	7	89.1	5	0.133	11	8.2	7	2.6		463	6	7.9	6
Aaron Rodgers	14.40%	7	66.8	3	105.7	7	7.19	13	81.3	15	0.160	6	8.5	8	4.5		493	5	8.0	7
Kirk Cousins	13.70%	8	53.6	17	103.3	8	7.30	10	90.3	2	0.107	16	10.2	9	5.6		435	7	9.7	9
Joe Burrow	-5.30%	21	54.7	15	108.0	6	7.74	6	87.1	6	0.148	10	10.7	10	6.2		104	21	12.1	11
Lamar Jackson	7.10%	12	60.1	10	97.7	13	7.37	9	85.4	9	0.124	13	11.0	11	1.9		280	12	11.1	10
Jameis Winston	6.10%	13	64.6	4	102.8	10	7.24	12	74.2	19	0.118	14	12.0	12	4.9		186	15	12.4	12
Teddy Bridgewater	5.60%	14	48.4	21	100.6	12	6.50	17	77.2	17	0.175	3	14.0	13	6.2		298	11	13.6	13
Patrick Mahomes	7.50%	11	56.7	12	94.5	17	6.50	17	73.0	21	0.155	9	14.5	14	4.5		414	8	13.6	13
Justin Herbert	-0.90%	16	56.2	14	94.8	16	6.62	16	86.8	7	0.085	20	14.8	15	4.3		199	14	14.7	15
Ryan Tannehill	-8.60%	23	61.3	8	90.2	20	5.98	23	90.1	4	0.132	12	15.0	16	8.1		46	23	16.1	16
Mac Jones	-4.10%	18	52.9	18	90.1	21	6.02	21	84.0	11	0.107	16	17.5	17	3.7		137	18	17.6	18
Baker Mayfield	7.80%	10	42.2	27	96.0	15	6.88	14	72.0	23	0.088	19	18.0	18	6.3		272	13	17.3	17
Jimmy Garoppolo	4.50%	15	47.3	22	91.9	19	7.27	11	62.6	26	0.111	15	18.0	18	5.4		183	16	17.7	19
Carson Wentz	-5.30%	20	54.1	16	96.3	14	6.82	15	67.5	24	0.085	20	18.2	20	3.8		108	20	18.4	20
Matt Ryan	-6.80%	22	52.0	20	93.9	18	6.07	20	82.6	14	0.091	18	18.7	21	2.7		81	22	19.1	21
Jalen Hurts	-4.60%	19	43.0	25	89.3	22	6.44	19	81.1	16	0.079	23	20.7	22	3.3		114	19	20.4	22
Daniel Jones	-12.80%	25	45.3	23	86.2	24	5.99	22	73.5	20	0.058	24	23.0	23	1.8		-30	26	23.4	23
Tua Tagovailoa	-14.00%	26	52.9	19	85.9	25	5.51	26	73.0	21	0.081	22	23.2	24	2.9		-29	25	23.4	23
Jacoby Brissett	-15.40%	27	56.5	13	82.9	28	4.60	30	75.6	18	0.023	30	24.3	25	7.1		-51	27	24.7	26
Ben Roethlisberger	-3.40%	17	41.4	28	87.6	23	5.98	23	57.4	32	0.046	26	24.8	26	5.1		143	17	23.7	25
Taylor Heinicke	-10.80%	24	42.7	26	84.3	27	5.72	25	57.9	31	0.053	25	26.3	27	2.5		6	24	26.0	27
Sam Darnold	-27.60%	31	44.0	24	76.8	30	5.02	28	66.0	25	0.034	27	27.5	28	2.7		-309	31	28.0	29
Jared Goff	-15.70%	28	30.3	30	85.3	26	5.16	27	62.0	27	0.031	28	27.7	29	1.4		-97	28	27.7	28
Davis Mills	-22.30%	30	29.2	31	80.2	29	4.39	31	59.3	29	0.025	29	29.8	30	1.0		-161	29	29.7	30
Trevor Lawrence	-20.00%	29	34.7	29	74.0	31	4.94	29	58.1	30	0.012	31	29.8	30	1.0		-164	30	29.9	31
Zach Wilson	-41.60%	32	25.9	32	63.5	33	3.42	32	59.5	28	-0.012	33	31.7	32	1.9		-398	32	31.7	32
Justin Fields	-51.60%	33	23.1	33	65.7	32	2.88	33	55.7	33	0.006	32	32.7	33	0.5		-456	33	32.7	33

 

[RandyMossIsBoss]

9 hours ago, Tk3 said:

@RandyMossIsBoss is the avg being calculated correctly? I think it might just be averaging the first 5 metrics, not all 6

But really great work, this is awesome.... I do have a lot of trouble with these high variance guys.. like all objective stats say Tannehill is awful, but the subjective metrics say he's pretty good. It's hard to make sense of some of these.

Good eye. Fixed.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

6 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

@RandyMossIsBoss  Nice work. But for some reason I'm coming up with slightly different averages than you are.

I'd also suggest using DYAR as well. The metric does a better job of separating a players value from the team. Not that it would make a world of difference but a difference nevertheless.

 

 

Player	DVOA	RK	QBR	RK	PR	RK	ANY/A	RK	PFF	RK	EPA+CPOE	RK	Total AVG	RK	SD		DYAR	RK	Avg incl DYAR	RK
Matthew Stafford	39.00%	1	77.6	1	118.0	2	9.56	1	83.2	12	0.203	1	3.0	1	4.4		965	1	2.7	1
Tom Brady	26.80%	3	69.4	2	108.6	5	8.00	4	91.3	1	0.158	7	3.7	2	2.2		910	2	3.4	2
Russell Wilson	25.50%	4	62.6	6	125.3	1	9.12	2	90.3	2	0.157	8	3.8	3	2.7		332	10	4.7	3
Kyler Murray	23.50%	5	63.0	5	110.4	4	7.82	5	85.6	8	0.180	2	4.8	4	1.9		607	4	4.7	3
Dak Prescott	37.20%	2	57.6	11	115.0	3	8.43	3	83.0	13	0.171	4	6.0	5	4.7		752	3	5.6	5
Josh Allen	9.80%	9	62.0	7	103.1	9	7.61	8	84.7	10	0.162	5	8.0	6	1.8		389	9	8.1	8
Derek Carr	14.40%	6	60.6	9	101.2	11	7.67	7	89.1	5	0.133	11	8.2	7	2.6		463	6	7.9	6
Aaron Rodgers	14.40%	7	66.8	3	105.7	7	7.19	13	81.3	15	0.160	6	8.5	8	4.5		493	5	8.0	7
Kirk Cousins	13.70%	8	53.6	17	103.3	8	7.30	10	90.3	2	0.107	16	10.2	9	5.6		435	7	9.7	9
Joe Burrow	-5.30%	21	54.7	15	108.0	6	7.74	6	87.1	6	0.148	10	10.7	10	6.2		104	21	12.1	11
Lamar Jackson	7.10%	12	60.1	10	97.7	13	7.37	9	85.4	9	0.124	13	11.0	11	1.9		280	12	11.1	10
Jameis Winston	6.10%	13	64.6	4	102.8	10	7.24	12	74.2	19	0.118	14	12.0	12	4.9		186	15	12.4	12
Teddy Bridgewater	5.60%	14	48.4	21	100.6	12	6.50	17	77.2	17	0.175	3	14.0	13	6.2		298	11	13.6	13
Patrick Mahomes	7.50%	11	56.7	12	94.5	17	6.50	17	73.0	21	0.155	9	14.5	14	4.5		414	8	13.6	13
Justin Herbert	-0.90%	16	56.2	14	94.8	16	6.62	16	86.8	7	0.085	20	14.8	15	4.3		199	14	14.7	15
Ryan Tannehill	-8.60%	23	61.3	8	90.2	20	5.98	23	90.1	4	0.132	12	15.0	16	8.1		46	23	16.1	16
Mac Jones	-4.10%	18	52.9	18	90.1	21	6.02	21	84.0	11	0.107	16	17.5	17	3.7		137	18	17.6	18
Baker Mayfield	7.80%	10	42.2	27	96.0	15	6.88	14	72.0	23	0.088	19	18.0	18	6.3		272	13	17.3	17
Jimmy Garoppolo	4.50%	15	47.3	22	91.9	19	7.27	11	62.6	26	0.111	15	18.0	18	5.4		183	16	17.7	19
Carson Wentz	-5.30%	20	54.1	16	96.3	14	6.82	15	67.5	24	0.085	20	18.2	20	3.8		108	20	18.4	20
Matt Ryan	-6.80%	22	52.0	20	93.9	18	6.07	20	82.6	14	0.091	18	18.7	21	2.7		81	22	19.1	21
Jalen Hurts	-4.60%	19	43.0	25	89.3	22	6.44	19	81.1	16	0.079	23	20.7	22	3.3		114	19	20.4	22
Daniel Jones	-12.80%	25	45.3	23	86.2	24	5.99	22	73.5	20	0.058	24	23.0	23	1.8		-30	26	23.4	23
Tua Tagovailoa	-14.00%	26	52.9	19	85.9	25	5.51	26	73.0	21	0.081	22	23.2	24	2.9		-29	25	23.4	23
Jacoby Brissett	-15.40%	27	56.5	13	82.9	28	4.60	30	75.6	18	0.023	30	24.3	25	7.1		-51	27	24.7	26
Ben Roethlisberger	-3.40%	17	41.4	28	87.6	23	5.98	23	57.4	32	0.046	26	24.8	26	5.1		143	17	23.7	25
Taylor Heinicke	-10.80%	24	42.7	26	84.3	27	5.72	25	57.9	31	0.053	25	26.3	27	2.5		6	24	26.0	27
Sam Darnold	-27.60%	31	44.0	24	76.8	30	5.02	28	66.0	25	0.034	27	27.5	28	2.7		-309	31	28.0	29
Jared Goff	-15.70%	28	30.3	30	85.3	26	5.16	27	62.0	27	0.031	28	27.7	29	1.4		-97	28	27.7	28
Davis Mills	-22.30%	30	29.2	31	80.2	29	4.39	31	59.3	29	0.025	29	29.8	30	1.0		-161	29	29.7	30
Trevor Lawrence	-20.00%	29	34.7	29	74.0	31	4.94	29	58.1	30	0.012	31	29.8	30	1.0		-164	30	29.9	31
Zach Wilson	-41.60%	32	25.9	32	63.5	33	3.42	32	59.5	28	-0.012	33	31.7	32	1.9		-398	32	31.7	32
Justin Fields	-51.60%	33	23.1	33	65.7	32	2.88	33	55.7	33	0.006	32	32.7	33	0.5		-456	33	32.7	33

 

Love the format here, I will incorporate this if you don't mind. I was trying to keep it simple for sake of how it'd look on the forum but what I will start doing is uploading the excel file so it can be viewed how it was intended and people can choose to include/hide whichever metrics they want. "I have no respect for PFF, so how do these look if I take them out of equation?"

 

I initially was going to use DYAR but opted for DVOA instead, that way these metrics can be efficiency based (except for wildcard PFF). I will still stick to these main 6 when I paste the table on FF but I'll start to have it listed on the document, just hidden.

[FrantikRam]

I knew Stafford would be good but not necessarily this good.

So....at what point do people start admitting they were wrong about that trade? Or are we just going to pretend everyone agreed with it?

[incognito_man]

Love this summary and charting @RandyMossIsBoss and @JAF-N72EX

[WizeGuy]

Good to see Allen climbing the rankings. He'll be top-5 by year's end, me thinks. 

[WizeGuy]

16 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

I knew Stafford would be good but not necessarily this good.

So....at what point do people start admitting they were wrong about that trade? Or are we just going to pretend everyone agreed with it?

Hmmmm...I thought more people thought it was a good deal? Stafford with McVay seemed to have the potential to be electric, and so far, so good!

[Blackstar12]

21 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Hmmmm...I thought more people thought it was a good deal? Stafford with McVay seemed to have the potential to be electric, and so far, so good!

Yep he made Goff look much better than he really is.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

	QB	PR	QBR	PFF	DVOA	ANY/A	EPA/CPOE	Avg	SD
1	Tom Brady	5	2	1	3	3	6	3.3	1.7
2	Russell Wilson	1	7	4	4	1	5	3.7	2.1
3	Kyler Murray	3	6	6	2	5	1	3.8	2.0
4	Matthew Stafford	2	1	16	5	2	3	4.8	5.1
5	Aaron Rodgers	6	3	14	7	11	4	7.5	3.9
6	Dak Prescott	4	18	10	1	4	10	7.8	5.6
7	Kirk Cousins	7	13	3	6	6	18	8.8	5.1
8	Jameis Winston	8	4	20	10	8	13	10.5	5.0
9	Justin Herbert	13	5	5	12	14	14	10.5	3.9	+6
10	Teddy Bridgewater	10	19	17	11	19	2	13.0	6.1
11	Matt Ryan	14	10	7	17	18	15	13.5	3.9	+10
12	Derek Carr	16	17	11	13	9	16	13.7	2.9	-5
13	Lamar Jackson	17	11	13	14	15	12	13.7	2.0
14	Josh Allen	15	12	15	18	16	7	13.8	3.5	-8
15	Joe Burrow	9	23	8	24	12	8	14.0	6.9	-5
16	Baker Mayfield	12	25	19	8	7	19	15.0	6.5
17	Carson Wentz	11	9	24	16	10	20	15.0	5.5
18	Ryan Tannehill	23	8	2	26	24	11	15.7	9.1
19	Patrick Mahomes	19	16	23	15	20	9	17.0	4.4	-5
20	Jimmy Garoppolo	18	21	25	9	13	17	17.2	5.2
21	Jalen Hurts	20	20	12	19	17	22	18.3	3.2
22	Mac Jones	22	22	9	21	23	21	19.7	4.8
23	Tua Tagovailoa	25	14	22	23	26	23	22.2	3.9
24	Daniel Jones	24	24	21	25	22	24	23.3	1.4
25	Ben Roethlisberger	21	27	32	20	21	25	24.3	4.2
26	Jacoby Brissett	29	15	18	30	31	28	25.2	6.3
27	Taylor Heinicke	27	26	31	22	25	26	26.2	2.7
28	Jared Goff	26	31	28	27	27	27	27.7	1.6
29	Davis Mills	28	30	30	29	30	29	29.3	0.7
30	Sam Darnold	31	28	27	31	29	31	29.5	1.6
31	Trevor Lawrence	30	29	33	28	28	32	30.0	1.9
32	Justin Fields	32	33	26	33	32	30	31.0	2.4
33	Zach Wilson	33	32	29	32	33	33	32.0	1.4

 

 

QBRank2021.xlsx

[Bearerofnews]

Hate CPOE. Don't even know how they formulate completion over expectation and what variables go into it. Prefer total EPA or epa/play. 

[FinSting]

53 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Hate CPOE. Don't even know how they formulate completion over expectation and what variables go into it. Prefer total EPA or epa/play. 

This stat proves Tua is worse than Jalen Hurts. Therefore I now don't like CPOE either. Stupid proof. 

[incognito_man]

Bumpity bump request

[Matts4313]

@RandyMossIsBoss => Hey, I was thinking that maybe give some thought to ELO. Its been then #1 factor in winning MVP. 

The only problem is I dont think its easy to find a ranking list. Maybe by next season.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/