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2022 Player movement rumors (Free agency / Trades)

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Dr LBC

Dr LBC

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Maybe a bit of hyperbole on my part, but I've said before I think that when you factor in the coaching and weapons in comparison to other QBs, I firmly believe Carr is a top 5 QB being held back. 

We've had endless turmoil and horrid weapons most of the time, yet he still slots in somewhere in the top 8-11 range. That says a lot to me. 

Is this Top 5 prior or post- this season; i.e. are you factoring in Brady's retirement and then made the adjustment to arrive at that conclusion?  Because Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, and arguably Wilson are all pretty clearly better, then legitimate cases can be made for both Allen and Herbert (and I know some that would make it for Dak as well).  And that's then not accounting for the fact that this past season had Deshaun Watson in relative limbo, but it's not like his talent or ability were in question - rather his avail-ability.  I could more comfortably see an argument for Top 10 QB, but Top 5 is a bit more extreme than I think you appreciate.

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squire12

squire12

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6 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

Yeah, it was agreed in principle in late January and treated by both sides as a done-deal, but the actual transaction didn't process until March 3rd(?), I believe.

trades can't become official until the league year opens.  mid march is likely when, not sure on the exact date.  

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squire12

squire12

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6 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Tell him to make a bigger list so they get a fair deal, retire, or stay.

QBs don't get to force trades to specific teams regardless of compensation.

Why not just say 7th round pick take it or leave it (the principle is identical)

He has zero leverage to force anything.

Rodgers has some leverage in that he also does not need to sign an extension and that would require GB to clear nearly $50M in cap space and then very likely see Rodgers leave after 2022 in FA.  With the voided year in 2023, I don't think GB would be eligible for a comp pick.  probably the worst case situation

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squire12

squire12

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6 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Looking at some Packers offseason projection stuff on YouTube it seems like the Smiths on D are the most likely cap casualties.

Those 2 and Rodgers gets them out of the red.

Yeah, GB can get there with the following

Extend Jaire 9.5
Cut Z Smith 15.28
Cut Cobb 6.85
cut Preston Smith 12.5
Rodgers extension 17
   
  61.13

 

The question comes down to what Rodgers will

  • want in an extension and
  • what will he want in a roster for competitive purposes
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Dr LBC

Dr LBC

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1 hour ago, Jraider91 said:

GB are going to ask for 3 R1s aren't they? Or comparable value 

Possibly, but I could also see them possibly looking to get starters on rookie contracts back in place of at least one of those R1's - because this cap-conundrum they're in isn't going to be a long-term one.  I'm normally of the opinion that NBA-type trades won't occur in the NFL, but I think for a player coming off multiple MVP awards and playing at the most important position in the game might be the lone exception.  Not sure I see anyone that meets that criteria on the Titans - unless Green Bay were to demand Jeffrey Simmons, but in the case of Denver, I could certainly see them having interest in, say, Bradley Chubb even if he only has 1 year (+1 for the 5th year option?) left on his rookie deal.

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squire12

squire12

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3 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

Possibly, but I could also see them possibly looking to get starters on rookie contracts back in place of at least one of those R1's - because this cap-conundrum they're in isn't going to be a long-term one.  I'm normally of the opinion that NBA-type trades won't occur in the NFL, but I think for a player coming off multiple MVP awards and playing at the most important position in the game might be the lone exception.  Not sure I see anyone that meets that criteria on the Titans - unless Green Bay were to demand Jeffrey Simmons, but in the case of Denver, I could certainly see them having interest in, say, Bradley Chubb even if he only has 1 year (+1 for the 5th year option?) left on his rookie deal.

I would venture that TEN would rather give up picks than give up Simmons in a trade.  

Chubb is probably not an ideal trade piece for GB given that if they are trading Rodgers, resetting the cap is likely to go hand in hand with that.   Chubb at $13M on the 5th year option would need an extension of risk being a 1 year rental.  A new contract for Chubb would need to be in place as a framework prior to a Rodgers  for Chubb trade package.  gets more complex for both pieces and gives Chubb additional leverage in a contract negotiations. (See Laremy Tunsil as an example)

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Dr LBC

Dr LBC

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2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I would venture that TEN would rather give up picks than give up Simmons in a trade.  

I'm sure they would, but they'd also be the one acquiring the MVP QB in the deal, so there reaches a point where they don't get to have all of their "rathers" in the deal; that's just the way these things generally work.

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squire12

squire12

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7 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

I'm sure they would, but they'd also be the one acquiring the MVP QB in the deal, so there reaches a point where they don't get to have all of their "rathers" in the deal; that's just the way these things generally work.

for sure.   would be a few dominos that would have to fall into place for a Rodgers to TEN trade to happen.  Mostly Tannehill being traded  to another team

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ronjon1990

ronjon1990

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32 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

Is this Top 5 prior or post- this season; i.e. are you factoring in Brady's retirement and then made the adjustment to arrive at that conclusion?  Because Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, and arguably Wilson are all pretty clearly better, then legitimate cases can be made for both Allen and Herbert (and I know some that would make it for Dak as well).  And that's then not accounting for the fact that this past season had Deshaun Watson in relative limbo, but it's not like his talent or ability were in question - rather his avail-ability.  I could more comfortably see an argument for Top 10 QB, but Top 5 is a bit more extreme than I think you appreciate.

Factoring in coaching and talent around them, Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Wilson, Allen, Herbert, and Prescott all have had much better situations than Carr. 

If we take Brady out, there's 6 guys in that group. 

Of them, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Wilson are unquestionably better. 

Allen, Herbert, Prescott? I don't know. They've had overall situations far better than Carr. Are they actually better though? 

In the Raiders forum a ways back, I argued that Carr was very similar to Stafford, probably better even. Stafford finally got to play in a real offense for a legitimate HC this year and we see how that turned out. 

Personally, if I had to list my top 10 in order right now based on what they've done and what they've had to work with:

Rodgers

Mahomes

Wilson

Allen

Carr

Burrow

Stafford

Prescott

Herbert

Cousins

Then again, like I said, I give Carr some bonus points for even being in top 10 conversation considering the atrocious situations the Raiders have given him. Imo, if an argument has to be made for a QB in a superior situation and better weapons around him, I'm hard pressed to believe he's better than Carr, given the circumstances. 

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Jraider91

Jraider91

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5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Factoring in coaching and talent around them, Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Wilson, Allen, Herbert, and Prescott all have had much better situations than Carr. 

If we take Brady out, there's 6 guys in that group. 

Of them, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Wilson are unquestionably better. 

Allen, Herbert, Prescott? I don't know. They've had overall situations far better than Carr. Are they actually better though? 

In the Raiders forum a ways back, I argued that Carr was very similar to Stafford, probably better even. Stafford finally got to play in a real offense for a legitimate HC this year and we see how that turned out. 

Personally, if I had to list my top 10 in order right now based on what they've done and what they've had to work with:

Rodgers

Mahomes

Wilson

Allen

Carr

Burrow

Stafford

Prescott

Herbert

Cousins

Then again, like I said, I give Carr some bonus points for even being in top 10 conversation considering the atrocious situations the Raiders have given him. Imo, if an argument has to be made for a QB in a superior situation and better weapons around him, I'm hard pressed to believe he's better than Carr, given the circumstances. 

He is arguable with Prescott/Cousins for sure, but the others no he is behind them 

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SkippyX

SkippyX

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Posted (edited)

Carr owns his bad W/L record. His teams have not been world beaters but that's the way it works.

Lets look at his rating though:

Since 2017:

  • Carr 95.2
  • Prescott 97.5
  • Stafford 98.3
  • Ryan 95.2
  • Cousins 101.5
  • (FYI Herbert is the hero we all deserve at 97.9 including 97.7 in year 2)

He's a good not great QB in that 6-14 mix year in and year out. I don't see why better coaching and players could not see him become a better performing QB. His biggest issue is that he's 3-13 with an 81.7 rating vs the Chiefs. They are rough. He has to beat them anyway.

Note: He's got 30 GWDs at age 30 (19th on the list already)

 

Edited by SkippyX
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