Trojan's '22 Mock Draft (Update April 24th)

[Trojan]

1.001 -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- Travon Walker, DL Georgia
notes: Unchanged selection

1.002 -- Detroit Lions -- Malik Willis, QB Liberty
notes: In my first mock I had the Lions make this selection at the end of the first round and had in each update the Lions selecting Aidan Hutchinson here. In each of the previous updates I had a trade at three as I viewed a team would trade up for, originally Thibodeaux then Malik Willis, the franchise altering player. At this point with Detroit assuredly not competing at the highest levels right away they should lock in the QB of the Future with Willis to groom behind Goff. The pressure to start off the bat is dramatically reduced, it gives the franchise young hope on par with Chicago and Fields except without the need to trial by fire and potentially ruin him. The value of a quarterback is simply too high to justify never mocking Detroit the consensus QB1, the guy their staff got an up close look at coaching at the Senior Bowl, the guy that could create an electric brand of Detroit football back.

1.003 -- Houston Texans -- Aidan Hutchinson, DE Michigan
notes: The Texans finally select at the three spot in my mock, as  the guy I view as their guy is finally available. If the foundations of team building are Quarterback -- and Davis Mills has shown enough for a reroll -- followed by left tackle -- which they still have Laremy Tunsil -- and then pass rusher, this is the pick that makes sense.

1.004 -- New York Jets -- Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, CB Cincinnati
notes: Unchanged selection

1.005 -- New York Giants -- Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE Oregon
notes: Unchanged selection

1.006 -- Carolina Panthers -- Evan Neal, LT Alabama
notes: I still feel like the correct pick is Sam Howell, but I also see that Baker is going to start somewhere and I feel like that team is Carolina. Evan Neal gives a foundational piece for a future coaching staff to build off of should Rhule fail with another retread high draft pick, but a move for Baker gives Rhule a fighting ready-now chance to save his job. I think this becomes contextually the compromise pick instead of a stability and long term vision and investment pick of Howell.

1.007 -- New York Giants -- Charles Cross, LT Mississippi State
notes: Unchanged selection

1.008 -- Minnesota Vikings -- Derek Stingley, CB LSU || Vikings receive 1.008 -> Falcons receive 1.012 + 3.077
notes: A new first trade, I've had Atlanta selecting from a pool of prospects I've felt were a solid group for them at 8 and have had multiple options each time. I've since added Desmond Ridder as a potential target to groom behind Mariota, and Stingley's proday has reinvigorated him as a prospect. I see the Vikings, a team that traded down last year, as a team locked on Stingley and should be willing to move a third to secure him should opportunity arise -- here it does. As Kevin OConnell attempts to build his team, he can emulate the Rams trading of assets to secure a "Jalen Ramsey" man cover lockdown guy. There's a chance Stingley isn't that, but he's the best bet in a while to be it if healthy.

1.009 -- Seattle Seahawks -- Ikem Ekwonu, LT North Carolina State
notes:  Previously I had Evan Neal, who in this update is not available, but Ikem also fills the hole left by Duane Brown. I feel like Ikem's strength in the run game would be all the more important as Seattle enters '22 with questionable at best quarterback play. A strong run game is their best shot, and Ikem has mauler mentality and fluid athleticism to reach the next levels.

1.010 -- New York Jets -- Jermaine Johnson, EDGE Florida State
notes:  Unchanged selection

1.011 -- Washington Commanders -- Drake London, WR  USC
notes: The Commanders surely saw something they liked from Carson Wentz last year to trade for him, and whatever it was they saw likely had Michael Pittman on the other side of it. Here the Commanders try to shore up the other side opposite of Scary Terry with a contested catch wizard.


1.012 -- Atlanta Falcons -- Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame || Falcons receive 1.012 + 3.077 -> Vikings receive 1.008
notes: After adding Desmond Ridder to the big board the Falcons gamble on a trade down to 12 and still are able to secure Kyle Hamilton on a BPA aproach.

1.013 -- Houston Texans -- Trent McDuffie, CB Washington
notes: Having already address defensive end in this iteration, the Texans grab their new CB1 for Lovie's Tampa 2.

1.014 -- Baltimore Ravens -- Jordan Davis, NT Georgia
notes: Jordan Davis is athletically insane, classic Ravens nose and has a knock for limited endurance. The Ravens front features older players at this point with Wolfe, Pierce and Campbell and Davis would rotate in reducing the perceived negative. As his conditioning builds and he can play more theoretical snaps those in front of him will be retiring. This is a luxury pick, but it's arguably BPA.

1.015 -- Philadelphia Eagles -- Andrew Booth Jr., CB Clemson
notes: With corners flying off the board, the Eagles prioritize the position to lock in their guy with the firs tof their two selections.

1.016 -- New Orleans Saints -- Sam Howell, QB North Carolina
notes: A sit and wait approach isn't typical in today's NFL, but the Saints took that approach on Jameis post-Buccaneers and have his current contract set up to do it again over one to two years. Sam Howell offers a lot of intriguing ability, but he's goofy offense requests some time to adjust to the pros and learn in the QB room first. If the Howell plan works out there is a window of low QB pay to finish off all those void years and remain competitive. 

1.017 -- Los Angeles Chargers -- Garrett Wilson, WR The Ohio State
notes: One could argue WRs have fallen too far and are close to BPA at this point, even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams under contract. I feel like Wilson would offer a little something different than what the Chargers have in Allen and Williams though reminds as a rich man's version of what the Chargers have tried to feature as WR3. In an arms race of the AFC West, the Chargers look to give Herbert one more piece.

1.018 -- Philadelphia Eagles -- Jameson Williams, WR Alabama
notes: The Eagles are rolling with Jalen Hurts this year, and have the picks next year to replace him should that need to happen. Investing in a field stretching Jameson Williams, even off ACL as it's a long term investment, opens up the field for Devonta Smith to thrive. If Hurts can't execute with that sort of investment, the Eagles look primed with weapons for '23.

1.019 -- New Orleans Saints -- Tyler Smith, LT Tulsa
notes: He has grown on me a lot, and I think if a team is to take him this early and has the vision of keeping him as a left tackle, opposed to a mauling guard, it's New Orleans who has a tremendous history of grooming toolsy offensive line prospects into over performers.

1.020 -- Pittsburgh Steelers -- Skyy Moore, WR Western Michigan
notes: Moore has impressed this entire lead up to the draft and I feel as if he'd be a great finishing piece to the Steelers current WR duo, much like Wilson to the Chargers. I think Moore's high school QB was Mike Tomlin's son for an additional link. This is Colbert's final draft, and he has a history of drafting this prototype of WR and with great success, and I could see one more being a swan song for his career.

1.021 -- New England Patriots -- Devin Lloyd, LB Utah
notes: The Patriots finally move off of selecting Trevor Penning in my mock, but only because I now have Devin Lloyd as being available.  I see Lloyd as either a fit at MLB over Bentley, or at SLB over recently acquired Mack Wilson. Regardless this is probably a position the Patriots haven't been in in decades with a need at LB, and having a blue chip prospect like Lloyd who can do it all and be a leader is a dream.

1.022 -- Green Bay Packers -- George Karlaftis, EDGE Purdue
notes: Despite a need a WR, the Packers do the very Packers thing and pass on a weapon to invest in the lines. George Karlaftis started the much higher than this, and at 20 or 21 years old still has that top 5 potential, but this past year wasn't worth that premium pick. In the early twenties however, the Packers can afford to let him develop to eventually start opposite Gary. In the meantime he can develop alongside Preston Smith and ease into a full time role.

1.023 -- Kansas City Chiefs -- Chris Olave, WR The Ohio State || Chiefs receive 1.023 -> Cardinals receive 1.029 + 3.094
notes: After the Packers passed on wide receiver and sniped the Cardinals hopeful selection of Karlaftis, the Chiefs offer a late first and third to move up to draft a wide receiver for Mahomes with some threats to take Olave upcoming. The Cardinals are comfortable moving from 23 to 29 with in no order Linderbaum, Johnson, Burks, Ebiketie, Ojabo, Elam and Green on board.

1.024 -- Dallas Cowboys -- Tyler Linderbaum, C Iowa
notes: I've had Jerry going defense here in both previous updates with a trade up for Karlaftis, and then Daxton Hill, but with Tyler Biadasz's struggle to adjust to the progame and turn over across the previously vaulted OL, and a GM/Owner that went BPA into a position of strength with Lamb when he had him labeled as bluechip... and with Jerry having a history of valuing centers highly with Travis Frederick... I think Tyler Linderbaum is likely much more excited a potential prospect to Jerry than I've previously given thought to.

1.025 -- Buffalo Bills -- Kaiir Elam, CB Florida
notes: I considered a few here, in previous editions I gave them Olave and McCreary. I considered McCreary once more, but I feel like Kaiir Elam is potentially a better fit if I were to go in the CB direction. I also considered Daxton Hill, but I place a large part of his value is safety versatility and the Bills have no issue at safety. I thought about Travis Jones, but the Bills signed Daquon Jones and Tim Settle as noses. An interior lineman like Zion Johnson could make sense as well, but ultimately I've settled on Elam. Elam could play in a press zone system and thrive and I think he enters the boards right around this position. He'd provide potentially a capable CB1 should White not be ready, but ideally he's a top notch CB2 to White's lock down abilities. The way the post seasons have gone in the Josh Allen era shoot outs are likely once everything in the AFC shakes down to elite QB match ups, so investing in additional corners seems logical as a response.  Essentially a tie breaker over Hill or McCreary, for me, was I project those two more towards the nickel if at CB, whereas Elam I see as a solid boundary option.

1.026 -- Tennessee Titans -- Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas
notes: Mike Vrabel has done a great job keeping his team relevant with essentially one threatening WR in AJ Brown, and Treylon Burks could arguably compare to Brown. Having two quick separators with YAC ability seems to be a way to maximize Ryan Tannehill. Talking about Tannehill, Kenny Pickett is available here and should Burks have not been on board and the Titans have made a run into the playoffs under Tannehill I would have been really tempted. I think Burks offers the potential to open up the offense and go to the next step though.

1.027 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh
notes: I considered Devonte Wyatt and Zion Johnson and between the two would have gone with Wyatt despite news of his 2020 arrest. I understand Bruce Arians shot down drafting a QB when Brady was retired as they invested a second round pick in Kyle Trask, but Trask was QB5 or QB6 last year and was arguably a third or fourth rounder despite being selected in the second. When Brady was retired not many had faith Trask could lead the Buccaneers to success and if that's how it felt in reality instead of plans, then I would think someone like PIckett would be on the table. I don't think they'd necessarily trade up for him, but if he fell and they feel he opens the window for Todd Bowles to have success beyond just '22 then I feel like he is the pick. I also think with Wyatt's prior arrest he may fall and there's a chance the Buccaneers could still get him with pick 60, then take a guard like Cole Strange to compete against Stinnie in roughly the fourth.

1.028 -- Green Bay Packers -- Trevor Penning, RT Northern Iowa
notes: After passing on WR for Karlaftis, Olave and Burks have gone off the board. So the Packers do the very Packers thing and pass once again on WRs, where those two would have had arguments for BPA, to invest in the lines again. I've had Penning going to the Patriots in each of my two prior mocks, but here Penning plays at RT allowing Elgton Jenkins to return to guard and creating a solid protection unit for Rodgers and a potentially dominate run blocking line for Jones and Dillion.

1.029 -- Arizona Cardinals -- Zion Johnson, G Boston College || Cardinals receive 1.029 + 3.094 -> Chiefs receive 1.023
notes: The big board of targets I had for the Cardinals when I made the trade down has seen a few go, but Zion Johnson, Arnold Ebiketie, Kenyon Green and my previous prospect for them David Ojabo remain on the board. With the newly acquired 94th and their natural second in the 55th pick I think they could potentially ride out a competition of Johnson/Green and Ebiketie/Ojabo and trade up once the other goes off the board to meet both needs. I think the Cardinals are fairly lucky Zion Johnson is available here though, and if they went the wait on guard, assuming they like both, Zion would soon come off the board creating a need to trade up soon rather than later. On the other hand with Ojabo tearing his Achilles he may fall, and Ebiketie is typically a second round prospect as is and it feels far more reasonable to assume 55+94 could land one of them, or potentially wait it out and land one with 55 regardless of a trade up. Therefore I'm immediately replacing newly acquired Will Hernandez with Zion Johnson who I feel is an infinitely better fit for the Cardinals than the mostly immobile brute strength Hernandez.

1.030 -- Kansas City Chiefs -- Daxton Hill, CB/S Michigan
notes: In my last update I wrote "I badly want to mock Daxton Hill [to the Chiefs]", but he wasn't available. Here he is available and he can step in an play nickel cornerback replacing Tyrann Mathieu.

1.031 -- Atlanta Falcons -- Desmond Ridder, QB  Cincinnati || Falcons receive 1.031  -> Bengals receive 2.043 +3.074
notes: I've had the Bengals targeting Devonte Wyatt, and learning about his off the field issue I think he moves out of the first. I could see the Bengals still being interested in him or maybe Travis Jones as well as others, but I feel like some target is likely available at 43 and the Falcons are paying over draft value chart by a mid round pick for the 5th year option. I think the Bengals would consider this without an obvious choice and instead having a diverse board that likely has guys remaining at 43.

1.032 -- Detroit Lions -- Jahan Dotson, WR Penn State
notes: After selecting Malik Willis second overall, the Lions look to build out their receiving corps with Jahan Dotson (Chark, St. Brown, Dotson, Reynolds with Raymond and Cephus rounding it out is a massive improvement from last year). With the explosion of WR moves and paydays I thought a tie breaker between who I have the Lions considering at 32 and 34 the 5th year option on the WR (edit: since I'm not doing other rounds, who I was considering here was Ojabo who would be their pick at 34 and eventually replace Charles Harris)  would be beneficial especially as he hopefully grows with Willis.

___________________
Below is my March 25th  mock from the first update
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1.001 -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- Travon Walker, DL Georgia
notes: I don't think the on the field product is top pick, but the athlete and his versatility is. I view Travon Walker as a Rashan Gary with freakier athleticism, and with JAX using their tag on their tackle/not moving Jawaan Taylor/drafting Walker Little in the 2nd -- I feel like edge is on the table. Aidan Hutchinson would be the pick if they ran a 4-3. Kayvon Thibodeau would be the pick, but they have that type of player in Josh Allen. What Walker offers is infinite upside, something I think could lure Baalke, and positional versatility to play as a DT or OLB in what I expect is a 3-4 attacking defense similar to what was run in Tampa. Walker could play some Jason Pierre Paul to Josh Allen's Shaq Barrett, with a touch of William Gholston.

1.002 -- Detroit Lions -- Aidan Hutchinson, DE Michigan
notes: Originally I could see the Lions going in a bunch of directions including who I view as potentially the best player Kyle Hamilton, but Aidan Hutchinson should have a very good mix of grade, positional value, team need, and the additional selling point of a Michigan player going to the Lions fanbase. Now I see this as Hutchinson v. Malik Willis, both Willis as the Lions pick and Willis as a trade up. I am going to stick with Hutchinson though with the Lions moving on from Trey Flowers.

1.003 -- Philadelphia Eagles -- Malik Willis, QB Liberty || Texans 1.003 -> Eagles 1.015 + 1.019
notes:  Originally I had this trade, but coming up for Kayvon Thibodeaux. I'm keeping the projected trade, but now it's for Malik Willis who gets to develop behind Jalen Hurts or just take the job if he comes out red hot.

1.004 -- New York Jets -- Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, CB Cincinnati
notes: Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner is the Seattle mold with the prospect behind it to excite. I don't think the scheme demands a lock down corner, but given the option of having one it'd be nice. Gardner pairs opposite Bryce Hall to create a nice young duo for the Jets.

1.005 -- New York Giants -- Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE Oregon
notes: This is both a BPA and need based pick at a premium position. I don't think much more explanation is necessary, but Wink Martindale is the new DC and his attacking front could use a rusher like Kayvon in the role Odafe Oweh played for the Ravens last year.

1.006 -- Carolina Panthers -- Sam Howell, QB UNC
notes: All time Carolina High School QB and local university star stays local. If McCaffrey returns healthy I could see Howell having a very successful rookie year, but the downside is McCaffrey gets hurt and the OL is what it was and Howell has to scramble, which he is capable of, but it leads to sacks taken and fumbles lost. If the downside happens I think Rhule is replaced, and Howell is a strong character and leader and would be an easy enough sell in coaching interviews. Just protect him and surround with talent and the talent is there with CMC, DJ Moore, Robbie and the LSU pick from last year.

1.007 -- New York Giants -- Charles Cross, LT Mississippi State
notes: Two tackles off the board and I am assuming Nate Solder is gone. Charles Cross has a bit of that athletic pass blocking long tackle prototype profile Daboll's Bills plucked from repeatedly, and here is a good version of it. I still think this is the Giants preferred offensive tackle if that's the route they go, I had him going 5th to the Giants previously, but that was with Ikem off the board, in this situation I think they would hold off to 7 for tackle.

1.008 -- Atlanta Falcons -- Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame
notes:  Kyle Hamilton sort of mirrors the Kyle Pitts situation here of BPA but not a valuable position, this is a front office that has slammed the pick em button in such a spot and Hamilton is from the area for a little bonus point. One freakish Kyle for offense, one for defense and hope to prove positional value thought can go out of the window in cases of blue chip prospects.

1.009 -- Seattle Seahawks -- Evan Neal, LT Alabama
notes:  The  Seahawks obviously lost Russell Wilson and that's how they hold this pick, but they also lost Duane Brown, and Evan Neal is the superior prospect to the remaining QBs. Neal has the athleticism needed, but also fits the crazy size a lot of Pete's tackles have been and he's dipped into the 'Bama pool before for the position. Arguably BPA, position of need, and that feels weird with how Seattle otherwise has taken somewhat random players previously. I think in the situation of the top of the board they could have a more traditional order though.

1.010 -- New York Jets -- Jermaine Johnson, EDGE FSU/Georgia
notes:  I debated Ikem here, and in my first mock I had him going to them earlier, he's available here but with the Jets letting Moses walk for cheap I get the feeling they feel like Fant and Becton are healthier than I assume. The type of WR I mocked earlier is speed, but the prospect I mocked bombed a little at the combine in that regard while the class showed depth, so I'm going in another direction with another riser in Johnson whose Senior Bowl to now has risen from early day 2 to early first. Lawson is off injury and they need pressure for the defense to work and outside of the potential of Lawson it's just not there. This is the bigger need than CB was.

1.011 -- Washington Commanders -- Ikem Ekwonu, OL North Carolina State
notes: The Commanders lost Brandon Scherff and traded for Carson Wentz. Ikem can play either tackle position and would if needed, but this is a potential Quenton Nelson / Brandon Scherff type pick for the Commanders, and as a guard prospect I think this becomes the arguable range compared ~top 5 as a tackle.

1.012 -- Minnesota Vikings -- Derek Stingley Jr., CB LSU
notes: Vikings grab potentially the best player in the draft is it's more like 2019 form than the recent. Slides because of the foot injury.

1.013 -- Houston Texans -- George Karlaftis, DE Purdue
notes: George is a really nice fit in Lovie's 4-3 Tampa 2 as a powerful end with enough athleticism to win beyond what a typical replacement would. He offers leadership and drive for greatness needed to build that locker room as well.

1.014 -- Baltimore Ravens -- Andrew Booth, CB Clemson
notes: I had the Ravens selecting a CB in Stingley in my first, but now he's gone and I have them go corner again.

1.015 -- Houston Texans -- Trent McDuffie, CB Washington || Texans 1.003 -> Eagles 1.015 + 1.019
notes: A very good zone corner to fit the Tampa 2 and meet a need while being not a reach as a prospect.

1.016 -- Philadelphia Eagles -- Drake London, WR USC
notes: After moving up for a QB, they grab a WR to pair with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to create a good situation. Drake is like a ++ version of what JJ Arcega Whiteside was supposed to be so I would assume Howie Roseman likes him.

1.017 -- Los Angeles Chargers -- Jordan Davis, NT Georgia
notes: It was a popular pick early on due to how bad LAC was at stopping the run, but then Jordan Davis blew up the combine and LAC made a number of great offseason moves and the nose tackle is a big need that now is also BPA.

1.018 -- New Orleans Saints -- Garrett Wilson, WR The Ohio State
notes: I personally prefer Chris Olave of the two OSU prospects at WR, but if Michael Thomas for real returns and one of the Saints other options (maybe Callaway?) emerges as a outside WR2, then I really like Wilson in the slot. I think he's bursty and creative enough that it would be a great complement to Thomas' slants drawing coverage and then Wilson making plays in space.

1.019 -- Houston Texans -- Devin Lloyd, LB Utah || Texans 1.003 -> Eagles 1.015 + 1.019
notes: Lovie Smith's successful Bears defenses were featuring Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Nick Casserio on the Patriots was a part of drafting two linebackers in the first with Jerod Mayo at 10 and Donta Hightower at 25. Additionally last year JJ Watt requested his release so a defensive leader is a need and linebacker is a traditional communicator and leadership position. I don't think there is any chance at 3 with off ball linebacker so far off positional value from third overall, but as a trade down building block?

1.020 -- Pittsburgh Steelers -- Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh
notes: I think the one they want is Malik Willis, but I have the Eagles trading up for him, and then the Panthers selecting Howell and Pickett now falling to the Steelers without having to move up. With Mitch under contract they don't need to spend extra resources on a QB in the class, but if one of the top 3 falls to them I don't think they would pass.

1.021 -- New England Patriots -- Trevor Penning, OT Northern Iowa
notes: Penning has a mean streak in his mentality and run blocking and that seems like a fit with the smashmouth looks the Patriots have identified with using Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. I think he and Trent would play tackle and Wynn would move back to guard with Onwenu.

1.022 -- Green Bay Packers -- Zion Johnson, G Boston College
notes: I think Johnson is a fantastic fit in the Shannahan/McVay/LaFleur/Taylor/McDaniel offense and the Packers could use another guard with Jenkins being both a standout, but also primary reserve tackle. I think this is appropriate range as well.

1.023 -- Arizona Cardinals -- David Ojabo, EDGE Michigan
notes: The torn Achilles drops him and I had him slotted to the Colts in the 2nd as a result, but with Chandler Jones leaving I think the Cardinals would just want potential blue chip traits at OLB/EDGE. He might not be ready early, but if he comes back and contributes later in the year that's when the Cardinals have slumped in recent years and potentially could help in a playoff push.

1.024 -- Dallas Cowboys -- Daxton Hill, NB/S Michigan
notes: I think the Cowboys would be interested in Hill especially as the Earl Thomas single high type safety for Dan Quinn's defense. He has nickle upside as well if someone else emerges for the safety role though. His athleticism is pretty unique and would play well to the range demands of Quinn's FS though.

1.025 -- Buffalo Bills -- Roger McCreary, CB Auburn
notes: I don't know if he'd play nickle (and Dane Jackson outside) or if he'd play opposite of TreDavious White. He's sudden, smooth and fluid and would be a good contributer, just he has a lack of length.

1.026 -- Tennessee Titans -- Tyler Linderbaum, C Iowa
notes: If it weren't for size and length concerns he'd be a much higher pick. The Titans have a good center in Ben Jones, but he's 33.

1.027 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Logan Hall, DE/DT Houston
notes: With the weight gain he has made Logan Hall enters the conversation as a real prospect. He played at an odd 6'6" 260 at DT at Houston but gained 20ish pounds by his proday and with his swim move and long arms could be a weapon on their DL replacing Suh next to Vea opposite Gholston.

1.028 -- Green Bay Packers -- Chris Olave, WR The Ohio State
notes: With multiple WRs available at the pick and a screaming need after trading Davante Adams, I have the Packers selecting one that can contribute right away. I think they would double dip in the upcoming picks and perhaps would take an upside shot like Christian Watson, or a guy off injury in George Pickens. Olave would compliment either.

1.029 --  Kansas City Chiefs -- Jameson Williams, WR Alabama
notes: After trading Tyreek, the Chiefs look for the deep threat of this class even if he is recovering from an ACL. This is a long term investment in Mahomes on a rookie deal with the 5th year option as FA solutions continue to get more and more pricey.

1.030 -- Kansas City Chiefs -- Kaiir Elam, CB Florida
notes: I badly want to mock Daxton Hill or Devin Lloyd to this pick, and think they may try and move up once one of the two go. I have Lloyd going 19th and Hill 24th so it wouldn't be a massive leap, but if they stay put I could see Elam making it into the first round. I think offensive tackle is  possibilty as well if there isn't progress on an Orlando Brown extension -- which I assume there will be if the Chiefs didn't pay Tyreek or Mathieu. Elam is a physical corner that would be a worthy selection in this scenario I would think though.

1.031 -- Cincinnati Bengals -- Devonte Wyatt, DT  Georgia
notes: in my notes as my computer died last night [Feb 6th], I quickly typed out "or Georgia DT" and I'm audibling to that this morning. It's less of a reach by about a round in my rough big board and I feel like Devonte Wyatt would play well on that line with a base of Hubbard, Reader, Wyatt and Hendrickson. Wyatt showed well in the Senior Bowl especially in practices and I think he is the primier three tech of the class, where Leal is more a tweener 5/3 tech, but also similar grade to me. I am sticking to the Wyatt pick in my update as the Bengals have addressed OL in FA.

1.032 -- Detroit Lions -- Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas
notes: After kinda missing his opportunity to test into the top ten, I have Burks falling to the end of the first to the WR needy Lions. Chark, Burks and St. Brown would be a fantastic trio compared to last year before Amon Ra's breakout run.

___________________
Below is my February 7th mock from the start of the thread
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1.001 -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- Evan Neal, LT Alabama
notes: The gargantuan tackle reminds me of a more refined Jordan Mailata body type coming out, and if the Jaguars may view Walker Little as their Lane Johnson then Coach Pederson has step one locked up for protecting Trevor Lawrence on a development path. 

1.002 -- Detroit Lions -- Aidan Hutchinson, DE Michigan
notes: I could see the Lions going in a bunch of directions including who I view as potentially the best player Kyle Hamilton, but Aidan Hutchinson should have a very good mix of grade, positional value, team need, and the additional selling point of a Michigan player going to the Lions fanbase.

1.003 -- Philadelphia Eagles -- Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE Oregon || Texans 1.003 -> Eagles 1.015 + 1.019
notes: Kayvon Thibodeaux is talented, athletic and freakish with some bend issues as well as minor health concerns. I could see the Texans looking at this class like 2013 and saying "oof we aren't winning more games with just that", taking some calls and underselling a bit on the trade value chart like Miami and Oakland did with the 3rd pick in 2013 when the Dolphins took athletic edge from Oregon Dion Jordan.  Sort of how Gruden rationalized a Khalil Mack trade of our defense sucks with him, might as well get some picks, Houston does that sort of a move and Philly potentially gets a premier replacement for Brandon Graham.

1.004 -- New York Jets -- Ikem Ekwonu, OL NC State
notes: Ekwonu here is RG if everything goes amazing and he is absolutely a game changer in that scenario. That has Becton healthy, Vera-Tucker playing at the top of his game, and Morgan Moses playing quality RT. Both tackles got hurt as did the third George Fant, and Ekwonu would be a very good replacement at either tackle, but potentially a legitimately game changing run blocking guard that can pull and locate at the second level with that much power is very unique.

1.005 -- New York Giants -- Charles Cross, LT Mississippi State
notes: Two tackles off the board and I am assuming Nate Solder is gone. Charles Cross has a bit of that athletic pass blocking long tackle prototype profile Daboll's Bills plucked from repeatedly, and here is a good version of it. 

1.006 -- Carolina Panthers -- Sam Howell, QB UNC
notes: All time Carolina High School QB and local university star stays local. If McCaffrey returns healthy I could see Howell having a very successful rookie year, but the downside is McCaffrey gets hurt and the OL is what it was and Howell has to scramble, which he is capable of, but it leads to sacks taken and fumbles lost. If the downside happens I think Rhule is replaced, and Howell is a strong character and leader and would be an easy enough sell in coaching interviews. Just protect him and surround with talent and the talent is there with CMC, DJ Moore, Robbie and the LSU pick from last year.

1.007 -- New York Giants --David Ojabo, Edge Michigan
notes: one pick on offense, one on defense. Ojabo burst on the scene and here he plays opposite Ojulari replacing Lorenzo Carter. With guys like Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams eating blocks and a lengthy speedster opposite in Ojulari, Ojabo could lead rookies in sacks in such a situation.

1.008 -- Atlanta Falcons -- Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame
notes:  Kyle Hamilton sort of mirrors the Kyle Pitts situation here of BPA but not a valuable position, this is a front office that has slammed the pick em button in such a spot and Hamilton is from the area for a little bonus point. One freakish Kyle for offense, one for defense and hope to prove positional value thought can go out of the window in cases of blue chip prospects.

1.009 -- Green Bay Packers -- Travon Walker, Edge Georgia || Broncos 1.009 + future picks -> Packers Aaron Rodgers
notes:  The Packers trade Aaron Rodgers to the Broncos for picks, and immediately use the pick to attempt to replace one of the Smiths at edge rusher. Long term Walker would play opposite Rashan Gary with those 6'5" 275ish type edge LBs the Packers seem to profile. 

1.010 -- New York Jets -- Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas
notes:  Mike LaFleur has to have seen what his former team was doing with Deebo Samuel and if he sees Burks as capable of the role that would be a pound the table request. Corey Davis as an outside receiver, Elijah Moore in the slot and Burks dominating sweeps/screens and mesh concepts with some deep shots with some RB snaps if he can handle it.

1.011 -- Washington Commanders -- Kenny Pickett, QB Pitt
notes: When I watched him earlier in the year before he had high first round hype I thought he could be a Ryan Fitzpatrick / Ryan Tannehill type and that seems to be a prototype Ron Rivera would be comfortable with.

1.012 -- Minnesota Vikings -- Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, CB Cincinnati
notes: I am assuming Aubrey Pleasant the Lions DB coach becomes coordinator and Sauce looks like a 1st round model of what the Lions took last year in Melifonwu that tall athlete at the position, but Gardner has some pretty crazy proficient play under his belt in college. If I remember at least mid-this year when I last looked into it Gardner hasn't given up a collegiate touchdown? Something along those lines and trying to watch him as time went on became harder and harder as teams would target his teammate and draft-classmate Coby Bryant. I think if the Vikings new analytics management pairs with a DC with a DB/CB background and sees this prototype with his game tape and it's a team need at a position at is valuable in the teens, this just makes sense to me. 

1.013 -- Cleveland Browns -- Drake London, WR USC
notes: I personally prefer Drake London and the size he would bring to the Browns wideout corps, but they mostly have had guys that profile more like Garrett Wilson who is also in similar enough range. The mini tie breaker for me is sometimes the Browns will put Njoku in the slot and if he leaves London can be that big slot on similar play designs.

1.014 -- Baltimore Ravens -- Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
notes: I have him falling a bit off these injuries the last two years, but this guy's freshman year was Joe Burrow on defense. Easily the Ravens could justify the pick as being BPA, but he'd be off some injury history entering a room (team) of injuries and needing to show the ability of availability. Marcus Peters had an ACL tear, and Jimmy Smith is sort of a year to year whenever he is ready retire I think, and Marlon Humphrey had a pectoral tear.

1.015 -- Houston Texans -- Devin Lloyd, LB Utah || Texans 1.003 -> Eagles 1.015 + 1.019
notes: Lovie Smith's successful Bears defenses were featuring Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Nick Casserio on the Patriots was a part of drafting two linebackers in the first with Jerod Mayo at 10 and Donta Hightower at 25. Additionally last year JJ Watt requested his release so a defensive leader is a need and linebacker is a traditional communicator and leadership position. I don't think there is any chance at 3 with off ball linebacker so far off positional value from third overall, but as a trade down building block?

1.016 -- Philadelphia Eagles -- Trent McDuffie, CB Washington
notes: After trading up for Kayvon Thibodeaux, I didn't want to double dip on defensive end with George Karlaftis, and the top remaining linebacker I have is Nakobe Dean who isn't quite the fit here I don't think as I don't see Howie taking a LB in the top half of the first, which steers this pick into a positionally poor Kenyon Green at guard to replace Brandon Brooks and the third cornerback of the class. I went cornerback and to me it's the easiest sell overall. I think the options here are McDuffie, Elam and Booth and I think all three could go in this range and have arguments. I think McDuffie is a good fit and would be a clean replacement for Steven Nelson who took a cheap one year deal (I think he'll get more this FA period) for play time on a CB needy Eagles last year.

1.017 -- Los Angeles Chargers -- Kaiir Elam, CB Florida
notes: Like the Eagles in the pick before I feel like this is a great range for these corners and the Chargers could use a press outside corner like Elam. The Chargers got a good nickle last year in Asante Samuel Jr., and I'm not actually sure if he plays nickle or outside due to how shallow their room was last year. Ideally though Elam would play outside on the hope he develops into the Jalen Ramsey role for Staley's defense.

1.018 -- Dallas Cowboys -- George Karlaftis, DE Purdue || Saints 1.018  -> Cowboys 1.024 + 3.088
notes: The Cowboys have Demarcus Lawrence on a megadeal (that looks like it would be reworked or he'd be moved on from soon), Randy Gregory (FA), and Micah Parsons took DE snaps. George Karlaftis would be a bigger defensive end type to complement the speed rush the Cowboys have, and then could rotate in to 3 tech when the Cowboys want to pressure with 4 men still, but in obvious passing situation with Lawrence and Parsons on the edges. The Cowboys are a team that recently has watched boards fall then made moves when they feel it makes sense and when the pick is arguably BPA they have taken players at "deeper" positions on their roster like CeeDee even when they had Amari and Gallup.  The Saints here are moving back a handful of picks while WRs are still deep on board and tackles are a little rich for 18, and QB becomes more palatable in the twenties as well.

1.019 -- Houston Texans -- Tyler Linderbaum || Texans 1.003 -> Eagles 1.015 + 1.019
notes: Lovie Smith's best offensive player in Chicago, a team that had Rex Grossman as QB, was Olin Kreutz. If Lovie is capable of selling his vision of football to the front office, and the Patriots are a team that loved Iowa OL, I think this could be on the table. Justin Britt, the current center, played last year after a rehab year and has experience at RT and guard at the NFL level as well as he is 30 (and not under contract I don't think). Neither LB nor C are sexy picks, but they are picks that sort of frequently play long term for teams that invest in them especially with premier players and I can't help but think that if the Texans flop as expected this year, next or year three, Devin Lloyd and Linderbaum would be two guys you could point to on the team and say at least they are stable there and have another good ~5 year outlook.

1.020 -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- Garrett Wilson, WR The Ohio State || Steelers 1.020 -> Jaguars 2.033 + 3.065
notes: After protecting Trevor with the first pick, the Jaguars move back up and grab Lawrence a wide receiver to develop with as Wilson and a couple others approach BPA territory. The Steelers are motivated to trade back and acquire a 2nd and 3rd as they surrendered their 2nd and 3rd for Jimmy Garoppolo in this mock.

1.021 -- New England Patriots -- Trevor Penning, RT Northern Iowa
notes: The Patriots grab a replacement for Trent Brown. Penning has a mean streak in his mentality and run blocking and that seems like a fit with the smashmouth looks the Patriots have identified with using Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.

1.022 -- Las Vegas Raiders -- Kenyon Green, G/T Texas A&M
notes: This is a pick I think a lot of my fellow Raider fans will not like especially with Jameson Williams on board as well as Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis is popular as well I believe. That said Green has positional versatility along the offensive line and power in his run game both of which remind me of what an offensive lineman for Josh McDaniels would would be. As Leatherwood busted last year there is no way McDaniels is going into '22 with only Kolton Miller as a valuable offensive lineman. Green would be easily the best run blocker on the team, and would give plenty of options for the coaching staff to plug guys like Leatherwood, Good, whoever in a LG/RG/RT and have Green lock down whatever is best for their vision. 

1.023 -- Arizona Cardinals -- Jameson Williams, WR Alabama
notes: sorry my laptop is dying notes are going to be short. Kirk and AJ Green are FA and Hopkins off injury. Williams is off ACL and only reason he is available, but he and Rondale Moore's speed would be massive threats with Hopkins drawing coverage.

1.024 -- New Orleans Saints -- Nakobe Dean, LB Georgia || Saints 1.018  -> Cowboys 1.024 + 3.088
notes: I might be far off on NOLA's scheme, but I think a small fast attacking LB would be a great fit at SLB where Kwon Alexander is surely being moved on from plays opposite Zach Baun.

1.025 -- Buffalo Bills -- Chris Olave, WR The Ohio State
notes: great route runner, vertical speed, hard worker. replaces Beasley and or Sanders and plays with Diggs and Gabe.

1.026 -- Tennessee Titans -- Arnold Ebiketie, Edge Penn State/Temple
notes: Bud Dupree has been a bust FA signing and Harold Landry is a FA.

1.027 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Matt Corral, QB Ole Miss
notes: They have Gabbert and Trask, if you have to gamble you have to gamble. Matt Corral could be an option that lets the Buccaneers move past the Brady era.

1.028 -- Green Bay Packers -- DeMarvin Leal, DL Mississippi State
notes: They got an Edge to replace the Smiths earlier, now they get the DL to replace Keke

1.029 --  Miami Dolphins -- Bernhard Raimann, OT Central Michigan
notes: Athletic tackle for Mike McDaniel's scheme

1.030 -- Kansas City Chiefs -- Andrew Booth Jr., CB Clemson
notes: Chiefs grab a first round cornerback to compete in the playoffs against the Bills and potentially in division (in this mock at least) Rodgers and the Broncos

1.031 -- Cincinnati Bengals -- Devonte Wyatt, DT  Georgia
notes: in my notes as my computer died last night, I quickly typed out "or Georgia DT" and I'm audibling to that this morning. It's less of a reach by about a round in my rough big board and I feel like Devonte Wyatt would play well on that line with a base of Hubbard, Reader, Wyatt and Hendrickson. Wyatt showed well in the Senior Bowl especially in practices and I think he is the primier three tech of the class, where Leal is more a tweener 5/3 tech, but also similar grade to me. I am more comfortable with this pick than my original of Kellen Diesch, LT Arizona State late last night, who I still think could be a target of the team, but later.

1.032 -- Detroit Lions -- Malik Willis, QB Liberty
notes: After coaching in senior bowl, Lions select Malik Willis at the end of the first. The first gives them the fifth year option so if they don't reach at #2, I would think #32 is likely.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Trojan

[Suffering_Bills]

Leal or Booth would be preferable for the Bills, but Olave wouldn't be terrible.

[THE DUKE]

4 hours ago, Trojan said:

1.031 -- Cincinnati Bengals -- Kellen Diesch, LT Arizona State
notes: I apologize my computer is legitimately about to die and this is probably an explain pick. It's a reach, but a guy that excels in pass pro for a team that has made the SB throwing the ball. He has movement skills and size, though may need bulk and strength. I'd say this is my most likely to revise pick off the bat because it's my most reachy at the moment but I'm feeling it out right now. If you absolutely hate this pick, either of the Georgia DTs as my computer is at like 2% battery and I can't even check who I have available right now.

The Bengals are pretty happy with Jonah Williams at LT who has been average to slightly above average overall.  RT will absolutely be filled somehow either through the draft or FA. I lean they go FA for a olineman or 2, because the Bengals window is obviously now and Burrow can't be the most sacked QB in the league again.

[Trojan]

2 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

The Bengals are pretty happy with Jonah Williams at LT who has been average to slightly above average overall.  RT will absolutely be filled somehow either through the draft or FA. I lean they go FA for a olineman or 2, because the Bengals window is obviously now and Burrow can't be the most sacked QB in the league again.

Sorry I was running on crunch time before my computer ran out of battery last night and threw up someone I had a note of as a potential Bengal fit fast. I knew it was probably the worst pick of the mock as I made it and right before posting (I had Malik Willis at 32 already) I wrote Georgia DT in the notes, and that's where I'm headed now as I think it's a better selection. I'm putting Devonte Wyatt in at 31 or 32 whereever they end up after the Superbowl to the Bengals.

[Suffering_Bills]

5 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Sorry I was running on crunch time before my computer ran out of battery last night and threw up someone I had a note of as a potential Bengal fit fast. I knew it was probably the worst pick of the mock as I made it and right before posting (I had Malik Willis at 32 already) I wrote Georgia DT in the notes, and that's where I'm headed now as I think it's a better selection. I'm putting Devonte Wyatt in at 31 or 32 whereever they end up after the Superbowl to the Bengals.

The Bills may very well draft Wyatt at #25, now. I'd be on board with that pick. Only other positions that make sense are interior O-line and cornerback.

[INbengalfan]

9 hours ago, Trojan said:

1.031 -- Cincinnati Bengals -- Devonte Wyatt, DT  Georgia
notes: in my notes as my computer died last night, I quickly typed out "or Georgia DT" and I'm audibling to that this morning. It's less of a reach by about a round in my rough big board and I feel like Devonte Wyatt would play well on that line with a base of Hubbard, Reader, Wyatt and Hendrickson. Wyatt showed well in the Senior Bowl especially in practices and I think he is the primier three tech of the class, where Leal is more a tweener 5/3 tech, but also similar grade to me. I am more comfortable with this pick than my original of Kellen Diesch, LT Arizona State late last night, who I still think could be a target of the team, but later.

I very much agree with this pick, especially if the Bengals address the OL in the form of 2 free agents, with center and either RG or RT as the other.  Taking Wyatt allows them to not be forced to sign Hill AND Ogunjobi, if that becomes the plan.  I think they sign Hill of the two due to age.  If they got both back, I'd still consider Wyatt anyway.

 

Now if they fail to address OL in free agency, and Joe Burrow hasn't sent assassins after the front office, then I think a slew of OL enter the picture.  If they are looking RT, then I would have Kinnard and Faalele at the top of my list.

If RG, then the pick is Zion Johnson without blinking.

[scar988]

Quote

1.008 -- Atlanta Falcons -- Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame
notes:  Kyle Hamilton sort of mirrors the Kyle Pitts situation here of BPA but not a valuable position, this is a front office that has slammed the pick em button in such a spot and Hamilton is from the area for a little bonus point. One freakish Kyle for offense, one for defense and hope to prove positional value thought can go out of the window in cases of blue chip prospects.

Love it. Makes sense.

[Louis Friend]

Very realistic for the Lions. I hate missing out on London/Burks late in the first. Why did others have to catch up on them?!? 

[Adrenaline_Flux]

I like the Evan Neal pick, but it's hard for me to imagine Neal at LT & Little at RT when Little at LT & Neal at RT makes a lot more sense.

[LinderFournette]

Neal is fine but little has 0 experience from HS and college playing rt and when he was tried at RT during camps last year it was bad enough to make him inactive over another OL who has versatility. 

[FalconFan13]

Love it for the Falcons as Hamilton is my #1 player in this draft.   You build long term and take the best player you can get everytime if you don't already have a above avg or better player there.   We have Richie grant and Jaylinn Hawkins as our safety's right now and neither of them locked down a future spot just yet.   Both have big talent and upside but neither have proved to even be avg yet bc lack of playing time.  Hamilton has much more talent and upside than both of them and you can always have 3 good safety's on the roster incase of injury which happens often at safety for some reason lol.    I personally run Grant + Hamilton and have Hawkins rest both of them when needed or when you run 3 safety sets bc grant can play CB as well as he did this year in certain scheme looks.

[cjfollett]

14 hours ago, Trojan said:

1.020 -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- Garrett Wilson, WR The Ohio State || Steelers 1.020 -> Jaguars 2.033 + 3.065

MAYBE if there is a 2023 1st round pick included the Steelers make the trade, but I suspect they would take Kenyon Green or Trevor Penning at #20. I am not sure if the trade value works out or not, but the Steelers value first round picks more than any trade chart. The only way they make a trade like that is if they are looking at QB in 2023.

[Trojan]

2 minutes ago, cjfollett said:

MAYBE if there is a 2023 1st round pick included the Steelers make the trade, but I suspect they would take Kenyon Green or Trevor Penning at #20. I am not sure if the trade value works out or not, but the Steelers value first round picks more than any trade chart. The only way they make a trade like that is if they are looking at QB in 2023.

When I cross posted this mock to Reddit this morning a lot of Steelers fans were very upset at the Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Is that the root issue for you as well?
Like initially for first three rounds (and QB) the Steelers have:
Mason Rudolph/Dwayne Haskins
1.020
2.052
3.084

Post trade:
Jimmy G/Rudolph/Haskins
2.033
3.065

Before deciding on the trade (which I used roughly Alex Smith to KC [2nd and future second] as rough value) I was considering Matt Corral to the Steelers. I felt like Jimmy +roughly 20 spots in value in both the 2nd and 3rd v. Corral should lean towards Jimmy. Am I way off base there? I think the "want" would be Rodgers, but I have him going to the team offering a top ten pick this year and future picks with his former OC as HC. If I went with Penning or Green to the Steelers at 20, what is the play at QB in this situation? Trade up for Desmond Ridder? Is Jameis Winston or Teddy Bridgewater appealing to the Steelers in FA? Drew Lock for something like the 6th round pick? Are the Steelers comfortable with Rudolph and Haskins on a playoff contending team? I feel like Jimmy with a run game and defense is playoff contention, and I'm not positive I see that elsewhere outside of maybe Jameis?

[jetsfan4life51]

LOVE it for the Jets.  Burks is my 1b. favorite player for the Jets behind Hutchinson as 1a.

If the Jets go OL, WR then can still get an Edge round 2 IDC what else happens lol.

[The Gnat]

Good Vikings pick. A random target that I think could happen is Linderbaum to replace Bradbury if they decide they want to solidify the OL even more to start.