The 2023 Draft Thread - We're picking #7

[reddevil]

Listened to the recent Mina Kimes podcast and she was discussing Tyree Wilson and said that he scored at the very top in every QB pressure metric - including the time to get to the QB, even with that crazy slow get off, he was still able to get to the QB crazy fast. 

Is there a comparable player who has come into the league and improved their get off? Because if he could, I really think he could be a really dangerous pass rusher.

[jimkelly02]

7 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I have this weird thought that we will trade down or stand pat and take Nolan Smith at 7. Just a gut feeling, but I think he's gonna be a double digit sack guy yearly and would be an unreal complement to Crosby.

I ask this because I’m actually interested in your response, not because I want to post a dissenting opinion of Smith:

when watching his tape…  it seems like nearly all of his sacks are either 1. Second player thru the line 2. His rush is initially stunted but the pockets starting to collapse and the QB’s moving around and Smith (whose very good at this) is able to make a quick move to close the distance to the QB And get the sack.

what I don’t see on tape is a player who wins quickly and decisively.  I put a high value on the “quality of the sack” when watching film: a rusher who wins quickly (1st move or a counter move, constantly moving forward- not stood up) vs the OL and doesn’t get help from the other rushers (ie the QB being pushed right into his wingspan) is the most valuable sack.  These are plays where the rusher dominates.  
On so many of Smith’s sacks, he’s the second or third rusher thru the line…. And gets a clean up sack OR He’s initially contained by the OL and when the pocket closes up and the QBs forced closer to him he’s able to strike.  
Don’t get me wrong being to get these “secondary” or “clean up” sacks are important…. But you gotta be able to Get those quick, dominating sacks in order to be even an above average pass rusher.  I don’t see enough of that on tape… at all.

Lastly, the sack production is the biggest knock… but what makes it worse is outside of ‘21 his sacks came from weaker competition:

‘19: 1.5 Murray st, 1 Missouri 

’20: 1.5 Arkansas (1st game), 1 Missouri (last game)

’21: 1 per Clemson+South Carolina games 1+2 and 1 per in bowl games vs Michigan and Alabama.

’22: 1 per from Kent state, Missouri, Vanderbilt

Almost Every pass rusher with production either has their stats “padded”, for a lack of a better word, by 1-2 multi sack games or with a few here and there versus low level competition.  But with Smith he’s got low production to begin with and too much of it is against quality competition.  That’s concerning to me.  

Edited April 22, 2023 by jimkelly02

[jimkelly02]

31 minutes ago, reddevil said:

Listened to the recent Mina Kimes podcast and she was discussing Tyree Wilson and said that he scored at the very top in every QB pressure metric - including the time to get to the QB, even with that crazy slow get off, he was still able to get to the QB crazy fast. 

Is there a comparable player who has come into the league and improved their get off? Because if he could, I really think he could be a really dangerous pass rusher.

I think he wins so fast because he wins inside a lot and wins with power plus that wingspan allows him to just Snat-ch the QB into his grasp.  It’s the old “quickest route is a straight line”.  
I think he definitely needs to improve his get off at the snap but also his ability to win around the edge.  His power is very very good but if that’s all he has OTs know it’s coming.  Top DEs HAVE to be able to threaten the OTs outside shoulder to be highly successful.

Edited April 22, 2023 by jimkelly02

[jpaulthe1st]

2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Dexter is a interesting prospect…. He’s the classic case of a prospect having a great size and athleticism but also having fixable yet major weaknesses:

the guy has one of the worst jumps at the snap, it’s BAD. If you can coach him up, it’s gotta be a technique/mental issue and a physical limitation because he’s a great athlete, then you could have quite a steal a solid NFL starting DT.

i just don’t know how you can be that slow off the snap and stand straight up and yet play so well after that.  He puts himself at a major disadvantage to start almost every play and yet still is very good.

 

I am also extremely intrigued by Dexter. I wonder if the scheme calls for him to react at the snap because he is incredibly slow off the ball. I remember Leonard Williams was the same way on tape and many attributed it to scheme.

Either way, if he’s there at 70 then I would happily draft him. However, I could see him going earlier if a team thinks they can mold him into a Chris Jones clone. 

[ronjon1990]

47 minutes ago, jpaulthe1st said:

I am also extremely intrigued by Dexter. I wonder if the scheme calls for him to react at the snap because he is incredibly slow off the ball. I remember Leonard Williams was the same way on tape and many attributed it to scheme.

Either way, if he’s there at 70 then I would happily draft him. However, I could see him going earlier if a team thinks they can mold him into a Chris Jones clone. 

I usually see him going in the 50's and early 60's in simulations. 

That seems to be a common occurrence with some of the day 2 DTs this year like Smith, Dexter, Ika, and Benton. For us, 38 is probably a bit too early, and 70  a bit too late. 

If we could swing a trade in round 1 and still net, say, Porter Jr, use 38 on OG or LB, or wherever, and have a spare pick between 39-69 to grab one of the day 2 DTs (I like aspects of all 4 of them myself) I'd say it's a major net positive all the way around. 

My concern is doing something like going anything not DT at 7, going not DT at 38, and either reaching for one of the next tier DT at 70 or standing pat and waiting until around pick 100 where the Pickens', Roy's, and Young's  seem to be lumped and hoping nobody sweeps them out a half round or so early in the late 80'/90's. 

I really like the depth of this class on D overall, especially at Edge, LB, and CB. S is ok. But the DT depth, while good, is front and back loaded and guys just aren't lining up securely with our draft slots when it's such a position of need for us. 

[big_palooka]

4 hours ago, reddevil said:

Listened to the recent Mina Kimes podcast and she was discussing Tyree Wilson and said that he scored at the very top in every QB pressure metric - including the time to get to the QB, even with that crazy slow get off, he was still able to get to the QB crazy fast. 

Is there a comparable player who has come into the league and improved their get off? Because if he could, I really think he could be a really dangerous pass rusher.

Intersting. I honestly wrote him off after seeing how slow he is off the line. I'll gladly take an L on him if he lives up to the hype. But really hard to see him come off the line that slow and not wonder how NFL OTs who are quicker won't have the advantage against him. 

[big_palooka]

4 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I ask this because I’m actually interested in your response, not because I want to post a dissenting opinion of Smith:

when watching his tape…  it seems like nearly all of his sacks are either 1. Second player thru the line 2. His rush is initially stunted but the pockets starting to collapse and the QB’s moving around and Smith (whose very good at this) is able to make a quick move to close the distance to the QB And get the sack.

what I don’t see on tape is a player who wins quickly and decisively.  I put a high value on the “quality of the sack” when watching film: a rusher who wins quickly (1st move or a counter move, constantly moving forward- not stood up) vs the OL and doesn’t get help from the other rushers (ie the QB being pushed right into his wingspan) is the most valuable sack.  These are plays where the rusher dominates.  
On so many of Smith’s sacks, he’s the second or third rusher thru the line…. And gets a clean up sack OR He’s initially contained by the OL and when the pocket closes up and the QBs forced closer to him he’s able to strike.  
Don’t get me wrong being to get these “secondary” or “clean up” sacks are important…. But you gotta be able to Get those quick, dominating sacks in order to be even an above average pass rusher.  I don’t see enough of that on tape… at all.

Lastly, the sack production is the biggest knock… but what makes it worse is outside of ‘21 his sacks came from weaker competition:

‘19: 1.5 Murray st, 1 Missouri 

’20: 1.5 Arkansas (1st game), 1 Missouri (last game)

’21: 1 per Clemson+South Carolina games 1+2 and 1 per in bowl games vs Michigan and Alabama.

’22: 1 per from Kent state, Missouri, Vanderbilt

Almost Every pass rusher with production either has their stats “padded”, for a lack of a better word, by 1-2 multi sack games or with a few here and there versus low level competition.  But with Smith he’s got low production to begin with and too much of it is against quality competition.  That’s concerning to me.  

If you understood Nolan Smith's role and the OLB role in the Georgia defense, you wouldn't be asking this question.

Georgia's Dline is superior to most programs, tasked with getting after the QB. The OLBs role is run defense, setting the edge and coverage. 

He has a similar pressure rate as Will Anderson with ~700 less pass rush snaps. His run stop percentage is tied for the highest among edge players since 2020 with Parsons who had a similar role. 

Smiths run stop, pressure and sack rates are among the top edge players since 2020. He and Parsons who similarly wasn't asked to rush the passer in college often rank tops in run stop rate. 

 

[MrOaktown_56]

4 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I ask this because I’m actually interested in your response, not because I want to post a dissenting opinion of Smith:

when watching his tape…  it seems like nearly all of his sacks are either 1. Second player thru the line 2. His rush is initially stunted but the pockets starting to collapse and the QB’s moving around and Smith (whose very good at this) is able to make a quick move to close the distance to the QB And get the sack.

what I don’t see on tape is a player who wins quickly and decisively.  I put a high value on the “quality of the sack” when watching film: a rusher who wins quickly (1st move or a counter move, constantly moving forward- not stood up) vs the OL and doesn’t get help from the other rushers (ie the QB being pushed right into his wingspan) is the most valuable sack.  These are plays where the rusher dominates.  
On so many of Smith’s sacks, he’s the second or third rusher thru the line…. And gets a clean up sack OR He’s initially contained by the OL and when the pocket closes up and the QBs forced closer to him he’s able to strike.  
Don’t get me wrong being to get these “secondary” or “clean up” sacks are important…. But you gotta be able to Get those quick, dominating sacks in order to be even an above average pass rusher.  I don’t see enough of that on tape… at all.

Lastly, the sack production is the biggest knock… but what makes it worse is outside of ‘21 his sacks came from weaker competition:

‘19: 1.5 Murray st, 1 Missouri 

’20: 1.5 Arkansas (1st game), 1 Missouri (last game)

’21: 1 per Clemson+South Carolina games 1+2 and 1 per in bowl games vs Michigan and Alabama.

’22: 1 per from Kent state, Missouri, Vanderbilt

Almost Every pass rusher with production either has their stats “padded”, for a lack of a better word, by 1-2 multi sack games or with a few here and there versus low level competition.  But with Smith he’s got low production to begin with and too much of it is against quality competition.  That’s concerning to me.  

Basically he has generational burst and bend and is very strong at his size and can get stronger. I think if you single block him in the NFL, he will destroy any tackle who doesn’t have the quickness to stay with him, and there aren’t many. 
 

He is still a projection, but the upside is monstrous. Plus he can even play off the ball in certain situations like Von Miller did.

[raidr4life]

4 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I ask this because I’m actually interested in your response, not because I want to post a dissenting opinion of Smith:

when watching his tape…  it seems like nearly all of his sacks are either 1. Second player thru the line 2. His rush is initially stunted but the pockets starting to collapse and the QB’s moving around and Smith (whose very good at this) is able to make a quick move to close the distance to the QB And get the sack.

what I don’t see on tape is a player who wins quickly and decisively.  I put a high value on the “quality of the sack” when watching film: a rusher who wins quickly (1st move or a counter move, constantly moving forward- not stood up) vs the OL and doesn’t get help from the other rushers (ie the QB being pushed right into his wingspan) is the most valuable sack.  These are plays where the rusher dominates.  
On so many of Smith’s sacks, he’s the second or third rusher thru the line…. And gets a clean up sack OR He’s initially contained by the OL and when the pocket closes up and the QBs forced closer to him he’s able to strike.  
Don’t get me wrong being to get these “secondary” or “clean up” sacks are important…. But you gotta be able to Get those quick, dominating sacks in order to be even an above average pass rusher.  I don’t see enough of that on tape… at all.

Lastly, the sack production is the biggest knock… but what makes it worse is outside of ‘21 his sacks came from weaker competition:

‘19: 1.5 Murray st, 1 Missouri 

’20: 1.5 Arkansas (1st game), 1 Missouri (last game)

’21: 1 per Clemson+South Carolina games 1+2 and 1 per in bowl games vs Michigan and Alabama.

’22: 1 per from Kent state, Missouri, Vanderbilt

Almost Every pass rusher with production either has their stats “padded”, for a lack of a better word, by 1-2 multi sack games or with a few here and there versus low level competition.  But with Smith he’s got low production to begin with and too much of it is against quality competition.  That’s concerning to me.  

I think I said this earlier when NFL tackles get hands on him he's not going to get there.

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, raidr4life said:

I think I said this earlier when NFL tackles get hands on him he's not going to get there.

I’m not saying I know he’s not… I’m just voicing the concern… a game of devils advocate.  There’s always a few unique prospects every year that people swear by one way or the other… but the truth is no one knows, it’ll all depend on how Smith adapts and grows over the approx the next 3 years.

But yeah… for someone who is light and hasn’t proven he consistently can get sacks… it’s a real concern.  
 

I think you have to play him in a hybrid role to get the most success out of him. That takes a commitment from the defensive coaches and their scheme.  

[101Raider]

Random prediction/idea

We trade Renfrow for a 3rd. Then use that (or a different 3rd) for Tank Dell.  Meyer moves into the slot and we get that explosive, playmaking WR on the outside we’ve been looking for.

 

 

[agarcia34]

Only pick at 7 that would legit piss me off would be Peter Skoronski. 

[FloydFan]

5 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Only pick at 7 that would legit piss me off would be Peter Skoronski. 

I’m pretty much in the same boat at this point 

[agarcia34]

He would obviously help the Raiders and improve the OL, but he’s a a OG imo and there is no way a OG should go in the top 10. I can get a starting OG with my second or with two of my 3rd round picks. 

[Dessie]

5 hours ago, 101Raider said:

Random prediction/idea

We trade Renfrow for a 3rd. Then use that (or a different 3rd) for Tank Dell.  Meyer moves into the slot and we get that explosive, playmaking WR on the outside we’ve been looking for.

 

 

I definitely can see us trading Renfrow at some point, may even have to eat some cap ourselves to facilitate the move like the Rams did with Robinson.