BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 3 hours ago, MWil23 said: Do we really believe Tennessee will be left out? They’re your fourth team if they win out. Georgia OSU/UM TCU Tennessee USC has not beaten anyone this year. Yes they have a dramatic close loss. They do play UCLA/Notre Dame yet. Oregon got absolutely housed and the CFP has held that against teams in the past. To be honest, the CFP should even take the loser of the OSU/UM game as the fourth team when TCU loses, but they won’t. Oregon has greatly improved since that first game though. Tennessee won't even play in their conference championship game so that will weigh extremely heavily on the committee and probably more than a week 1 loss when the (potential) PAC12 champions are playing lights out football. Just my opinion but one thing is certain and that's this year will have some people upset as they will feel left out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Second half was not okay, but it was nice to be in complete control of a game. Job's his to lose. He's a really good coach. Before we got Knowles, I was hoping we'd pursue him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, mse326 said: I feel like we (as in college football fans) have this argument every year about whether conference championships matter. I am of the opinion they shouldn't. It should be the best 4 teams. And there has never been a true test, but they have shown where confrence championships isn't that highly regarded. OSU and Penn St. Penn St had one more loss but has the conference championship and H2H, they still went with OSU. Can you tell me that a one-loss Ohio State/Michigan is decisively better than a one-loss USC/UCLA/Oregon/TCU team? I'm not sure I would. Both Ohio State and Michigan both have Penn State as their best win, and Ohio State's next best win is probably Notre Dame. And they won't get a buff because the Big 10 West is weak with a likely championship win over Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, or Iowa. Last year, when the SEC got two teams in Alabama beat Georgia in the regular season, but Georgia beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. 2017 is the only time a team made the playoffs without playing in their Conference Championship and there wasn't another one-loss team that was a Conference Champion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: He's a really good coach. Before we got Knowles, I was hoping we'd pursue him. The older I get, the more I think being a HC is about being a good leader and people manager instead of being the best pure coach in the room. If you're a good boss, good coaches will want to work for you and players will want to play for you. Leonhard's looked comfortable so far, which says a lot considering he's been pretty public that it's his dream job and he had zero notice. The players loved Chryst and the only issue was Logan Brown, which was handled with zero fuss. That also says a lot. He'll get good HC job offers if we don't make him permanent based on how he's done in my opinion. Edited November 6, 2022 by ramssuperbowl99 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 30 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Can you tell me that a one-loss Ohio State/Michigan is decisively better than a one-loss USC/UCLA/Oregon/TCU team? I'm not sure I would. Both Ohio State and Michigan both have Penn State as their best win, and Ohio State's next best win is probably Notre Dame. And they won't get a buff because the Big 10 West is weak with a likely championship win over Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, or Iowa. Last year, when the SEC got two teams in Alabama beat Georgia in the regular season, but Georgia beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. 2017 is the only time a team made the playoffs without playing in their Conference Championship and there wasn't another one-loss team that was a Conference Champion. We have never seen conference championship make a difference. And they say they goal is to get the best 4 teams which means that whatever lip service they may pay to conference championships, there is no logical reason that that should influence the ultimate goal when comparing teams in different conferences Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, mse326 said: We have never seen conference championship make a difference. And they say they goal is to get the best 4 teams which means that whatever lip service they may pay to conference championships, there is no logical reason that that should influence the ultimate goal when comparing teams in different conferences In the 8 playoffs we've had so far, we've only had 2 P5 conference non-champions make the playoffs: 2017 (Alabama) and 2022 (Georgia). George was clearly a top 4 team the entire 2022 season, so leaving them out of the playoffs was clearly a non-starter. In 2017, Alabama made the playoffs as an 11-1 team while the Big 10 and Pac-12 had two-loss conference champions (USC and Ohio State). Personally, I don't think Michigan has played like a clear top 4 team all year. I think you could argue that Ohio State has, so it'd depend on who their loss was against and how bad it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 I think in the end we aren’t going to sweat anybody that gets left out. Individual fan bases will, but in the grand scheme of things, I think there are going to be two or three teams that are legitimate title contenders. If you can’t beat your rival in the Ohio State/Michigan game, tough luck, you knew I was at stake. I’m not saying the loser of that game might not still be a top four team, but I don’t think it would change the eventual outcome as far as a champ, and that game should be played as a playoff mindset anyhow. I’d say the same thing about some of those other late season games that happen in other conferences. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon, TCU, and USC all lose a game yet. Clemson has the easiest path of the bubble teams imo. But I’m not sure how the committee would view them. Like they won’t have beaten anybody good. Just a guess and projection but I see UGA, UM/OSU winner, Tennessee, and either Oregon or Clemson. A lot can happen in a week though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 1 hour ago, CWood21 said: I think there's about as close to a 0% chance that both Michigan and Ohio State make the playoffs. Hence the “but they won’t” 😂 Only Alabama gets that courtesy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, NateDawg said: Just a guess and projection but I see UGA, UM/OSU winner, Tennessee, and either Oregon or Clemson. A lot can happen in a week though. As long as TCU wins out, they're in. They're not leaving out an undefeated P5 champ. If they lose, it opens up the door. Clemson could end up backdooring it despite the fact that they've slept walked through the season so far. A one-loss Pac-12 champ probably makes it into the playoffs as well, especially since they will likely get a late season statement win (either USC/UCLA over Oregon OR Oregon over USC/UCLA). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, CWood21 said: As long as TCU wins out, they're in. They're not leaving out an undefeated P5 champ. If they lose, it opens up the door. Clemson could end up backdooring it despite the fact that they've slept walked through the season so far. A one-loss Pac-12 champ probably makes it into the playoffs as well, especially since they will likely get a late season statement win (either USC/UCLA over Oregon OR Oregon over USC/UCLA). Yeah they would definitely make it if they win out. I think they lose though, at least once. So it’s my best guess projecting forward. Edited November 6, 2022 by NateDawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) If USC wins out, they're getting in. They'd be 12-1 with late season wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and either Utah or Oregon three straight weeks. Oregon probably gets in as well considering they'd have beaten Utah and USC/UCLA over the last 3 weeks of the season. They actually finish with a strong schedule considering Washington is likely going to be ranked this week. Just depends on how they view that opening week loss but, again, teams aren't the same in November as they were in early September. Edited November 6, 2022 by beekay414 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 5 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Oregon has greatly improved since that first game though. Tennessee won't even play in their conference championship game so that will weigh extremely heavily on the committee and probably more than a week 1 loss when the (potential) PAC12 champions are playing lights out football. Just my opinion but one thing is certain and that's this year will have some people upset as they will feel left out Has Oregon greatly improved, or are they just playing in a weak conference? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 38 minutes ago, jrry32 said: Has Oregon greatly improved, or are they just playing in a weak conference? It's a valid question. While I admit I haven't then extremely closely, I'd be willing to bet it's a combination of both. Which is more apparent though? Not sure but I'd lean with the former Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: It's a valid question. While I admit I haven't then extremely closely, I'd be willing to bet it's a combination of both. Which is more apparent though? Not sure but I'd lean with the former Assuming Tennessee wins out, I couldn't pick Oregon over them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catcheryea Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 1 hour ago, jrry32 said: Has Oregon greatly improved, or are they just playing in a weak conference? bo nix against uga is a complete write off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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