Wildcard Round: San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

[TecmoSuperJoe]

 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

 

[757-NINER]

On 1/9/2023 at 2:23 PM, Forge said:

I think we matchup awful against the eagles. 

Best offensive line in the league that can 100% shut this defense down, and even if we do break through, we all know how this team struggles containing running quarterbacks. They contain bosa in that one, i think it gets ugly. They can have two high quality receivers that will always be matched up on Lenoir. Their defensive front is going to be a problem for the offensive line. I don't think people realize that they were 2 sacks away from setting an all time record. They had 4 players with 11 sacks lol. 

They lost one game with Hurts in the lineup and it was a freak game where they turned the ball over like 4 times (one of which was an awful missed penalty). 

They are the best team in the NFC when healthy. 

The question is how healthy they will be by the time we have to play them (if both teams get to that point). That's a real issue for them. Lane Johnson is a massive loss right now, but I expect him to go in the playoffs. Josh Sweat is another loss. I don't know what his status is and if he is expected back. 

I think if the Eagles are remotely healthy, we win 3 out of 10 against them. 

[757-NINER]

On 1/9/2023 at 3:02 PM, J-ALL-DAY said:

Hurts/Minshew got sacked 44 times on 580 dropbacks which is a sack percentage of around 7.5% per dropback.

Before Johnson got hurt (Dallas game), Hurts got sacked 35 times on 460 dropbacks, which is a sack percentage of 7.6% per dropback. And that came with Johnson at RT. There wasn't much of a difference in terms of the sacks the QBs took with or without Johnson in the line up.

I'm not saying they have a bad OL because it certainly is not that but our DL can wreck some havoc as they usually do. Hurts tests the outside often and that's where the secondary can be had so I expect the Eagles offense to come away with a few explosive plays for sure. The question will be, can we slow down their run game? If so, then this is essentially a pick-em game.

The Eagles rush defense did not look good the last two weeks and were sub-par all season. Of course, they made some mid-season additions that helped and Davis missed some time during the season as well. But will Mitchell/CMC/Deebo get going on the ground? I think they will. Then it comes down to how much Shanny can exploit the Eagles slot and middle of the field. If he can, then the offense is going to do what it usually does.

Again, I'm not seeing the Eagles being overwhelming favorites but we may find out one way or another soon enough. 

My thing is the D-Line outside of Bosa has been pretty pedestrian getting to the QB. We haven't gotten home just rushing with four like we have in the past. 

And we all know that mobile QBs always give us fits. Hell, we let Stidham break containment mutiple times by simply not being disciplined and staying in our rush lanes. That has happened numerous times throughout the year. And if we have to spy Hurts, you're taking away a defender from the middle of the field. It's not a good look, either way and it'll make defending the run, whether it's the read-option or beig conventional, all that more difficult. Not to mention those quick-hitters out of the RPOs.

Hurts as a passer doesn't really scare me. It's Hurts doing the off-schedule stuff and extending plays outside of the pocket that will affect how effectively we can rush the passer and get off the field on 3rd downs. We've given up some back-breaking 3rd and Long's here lately. Those two reasons are why I think all things being equal, the defense isn't as effective against that offense.

Edited January 11, 2023 by 757-NINER

[Forge]

40 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

 

The amusing part of this is that its a direct result of CMC but not in how he carries the ball. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry in that time frame, which is fine. His backups averaged 5.5 yards a carry lol. 

Mitchell - 39 / 238 (6.10 ypc)

Mason - 42 / 251 (5.98)

Jeff Wilson - 11 / 68 (6.18)

TDP - 20 / 66 (yikes - 3.3) 

That's 112 carries for 623 yards. 5.57 yards per attempt. 

I think that's really what CMC did. Made the offense way more efficient because of his visibility in the passing game. Always have to account for him. And then when he and the passing game run you ragged, they can't stop the fresh legs that come in. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

11 minutes ago, Forge said:

The amusing part of this is that its a direct result of CMC but not in how he carries the ball. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry in that time frame, which is fine. His backups averaged 5.5 yards a carry lol. 

Mitchell - 39 / 238 (6.10 ypc)

Mason - 42 / 251 (5.98)

Jeff Wilson - 11 / 68 (6.18)

TDP - 20 / 66 (yikes - 3.3) 

That's 112 carries for 623 yards. 5.57 yards per attempt. 

I think that's really what CMC did. Made the offense way more efficient because of his visibility in the passing game. Always have to account for him. And then when he and the passing game run you ragged, they can't stop the fresh legs that come in. 

He's made such a difference it's been like night, and day even to the layman watching. Worth the trade. 

I'm happy that at the very least he's not languishing in the offensive catacombs of Carolina anymore. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe

[oldman9er]

Quote

The strides the 49ers' offensive line have made are not discussed enough. Unit deserves a lot of credit for good play of both Garoppolo and now Purdy

Purdy survives with his moxie and 1.55 ten yd split.

Jim almost survives it with lightning quick release (for better or worse). 

[N4L]

 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

 

I hate that weather is even a factor in this. Kind of defeats the purpose of getting home field given that is one of the things I wanted to avoid for as long as possible lol 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Didn't know that Geno is apparently 2nd in the NFL in turnover-worthy plays via PFF. Surprising, but maybe he had a bunch of INT luck this year to go along with his decent season. 

[N4L]

 

[Hopper15]

11 hours ago, oldman9er said:

Purdy survives with his moxie and 1.55 ten yd split.

Jim almost survives it with lightning quick release (for better or worse). 

Banks was the most pleasant surprise of the season.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Quote

On defense, the San Francisco 49ers finish No. 1 this season ahead of the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco's final rating of -14.1% comes very close to being the worst No. 1 defense we've ever had, but the 2007 Tennessee Titans were a little bit lower at -13.9%. So the 49ers were the strongest defense of the year, but they weren't historically unstoppable or anything like that. (Just ask Jarrett Stidham.) New England finishes third on defense, followed by Buffalo and the New York Jets. The AFC East was a tough place to play offense this year! And how about those Jets, who were the worst defense in the league in 2021 and moved up into the top five this season.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2023/bills-finish-no-1-2022-dvoa-ratings

A bit of a buzzkill by their metrics, but yeah. Maybe if the 49ers had Mosley for the year they would have been a bit more dominant. Overall still feeling stoked as a fan. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe

[NinerNation21]

I was curious how rookie QB's have played in the playoffs, so I went over to StatHead.com and played around with some filter searches. I looked at rookie QB's since the Super Bowl era and found some interesting things:

•  Mark Sanchez is essentially the most accomplished rookie QB to play in the playoffs
• Sanchez has the most TD passes as a rookie with 4
• Only 1 QB has a CMP% of over 65% with at least 40 passing attempts (Matt Ryan). There are 4 QBs higher than Ryan but only 1 of them have more than 10 passing attempts (John Elway)
• Only 3 QBs have a passer rating of 90 or higher with at least 30 passing attempts (Dak, Russell, and Sanchez)
• No rookie QB has ever won 3 playoff games and only 2 have won at least 2 as the starting QB (Sanchez and Flacco)
• TJ Yates is the lowest drafted QB to start a playoff game. He started 2, went 1-1, and was drafted in the 5th round (pick 152)
• There have only been 6 rookie QBs to start a playoff game that weren't 1st round picks. They are 3-6 in the playoffs. 

Purdy has a real chance to make history over the next couple of weeks. I mean, he's making history each day that he continues to be our starting QB, but having a successful playoff run would put him in extremely rare company. 

[Forge]

NFC quarterbacks

2nd, 7th, 4th, 6th, 4th, 1st, and 2nd round picks. The only first round pick was Daniel Jones lol

AFC

1st (trade up), 1st (trade up), #1 overall, #1 overall, 1st, 1st (assuming Lamar plays), 1st (assuming Teddy plays) round picks