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2022 NFC Championship: 49ers vs. Eagles


DigInBoys

Who will win the NFC Championship?  

101 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the NFC Championship?

    • 49ers
      33
    • Eagles
      57
    • Toss Up
      11


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1 minute ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Funny that you make a claim, get pushback on said claim, go onto put words in my mouth saying I said something I didn’t, then say you aren’t interested in arguing about it. 
 

Kinda weird man. I never said they were MUCH better. I do think Brown and Devonta are better than Deebo/Aiyuk. That doesn’t mean your guys aren’t also really good, I just think ours are better. If i am wrong so be it.  I see Kittle and Goedert as a push essentially. Pretty similar players overall. 

No, you just didn't read the original post I responded to. He was clearly responding to my post where I had the pass catchers as a push and then said Brown/Smith were worlds better than Deebo/Aiyuk. 

I'm just interested in debating this. It's cool that you guys think your pass catchers are better....and some of you feel they are "worlds better."

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2 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

Don't have PFF Premium but I'd assume that Kittle is in the 90s?

Only what I can dig up without paying for stuff.

(Goedert's rookie season)
TE-RB-1024x574.png

 

An article written before this season had them both in the "Elite" tier for Tight End Blocking

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-tight-end-rankings-tiers-2022

So maybe Kittle has a slight edge, but it's probably not as pronounced as you originally believed. It's one of the main reasons us Eagles fans were begging for years to ship Ertz off and play Goedert instead.

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Kittle and Goederts stats are fairly comparable. Both missed a little time (Goedert a bit more)

The main takeaway is Kittle's TD numbers are notably higher, but when you QB can run it in himself so often that's obviously going to reduce the number of redzone receiving touchdowns which definitely have a TE bias. 

I'm not suggesting Goedert is better, just that he's on the same level as Kittle. 

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16 minutes ago, Danger said:

Only what I can dig up without paying for stuff.

(Goedert's rookie season)
TE-RB-1024x574.png

 

An article written before this season had them both in the "Elite" tier for Tight End Blocking

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-tight-end-rankings-tiers-2022

So maybe Kittle has a slight edge, but it's probably not as pronounced as you originally believed. It's one of the main reasons us Eagles fans were begging for years to ship Ertz off and play Goedert instead.

Ah, I stand corrected then. I'd probably still give the edge to Kittle (assuming he's healthy), but you are right in that it's pretty close

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57 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I said pass catchers but if you think Brown/Smith/Goedert are worlds better than Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle, then...............

I mean yeah even with the inclusion of the TE it's still a significant advantage for the Eagles. Goedert REALLY gets slept on its an issue.

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58 minutes ago, adamq said:

Deebo/Brown are completely different types of receivers, both are just as dangerous though

https://stathead.com/tiny/5NZDh

 

Aiyuk is every bit as good a player as Smith is

https://stathead.com/tiny/xq6G1

 

 

Per game stats are incredibly close for both pairs when you factor in deebos rushing

 

Also laugh if you want, but Jauan Jennings will be a factor in this game, especially on 3rd downs.  Can Watkins do anything but run fast in a straight line?

I'm confident in saying that if you gave every GM the choice between Brown/Smith and Samuel/Aiyuk, the overwhelming majority would choose Brown/Smith. That duo is in the Chase/Higgins and Hill/Waddle tier. Samuel/Aiyuk is probably top 10 though. Smith is a better receiver than both of those guys honestly. You won't see me defend Watkins, he's okay though.

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45 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

Don't have PFF Premium but I'd assume that Kittle is in the 90s?


They grade TEs on same scale as OL I’m pretty sure, and only a few linemen crack 90 in a given year.

 

Run blocking grades for Kittle & Goedert. Rankings are among TEs w/ at least 100 run block snaps.

Kittle

2022- 70.8 (4th/76)

2021- 73.3 (9th/82)

2020- 62.8 (31st/79)

2019- 76.2 (4th/76)

 

Goedert

2022- 55.1  (44th/76)

2021- 65.1 (20th/82)

2020- 81 (2nd/79)

2019- 79.9 (2nd/76)

 

Surprised by Goedert’s low grade this season. Doesn’t seem like he’s been any less a run blocker than in the past but who knows, can’t say I’ve ever keyed in on his run blocking outside of splash plays. 

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49 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

Don't have PFF Premium but I'd assume that Kittle is in the 90s?

No. Nobody gets a 90+ blocking grade from the tight end spot. It's pretty rare that anyone gets an 80+ run blocking grade from the tight end spot (this year there were 0, last year it was only John Bates, etc). 

Pass blocking is largely a whatever - tight ends generally don't pass block enough to make the sample size sufficient to draw any sort of sweeping conclusions (the top 5 graded pass blockers at the tight end position had fewer than 30 pass blocking snaps). Only 5 of the top 20 had more than 50 pass block snaps.  So you can almost kind of disregard that. 

Run blocking is largely what drives blocking grades, and even those are questionable. System and role play huge factors in that. I mean, the top 5 run blockers at tight end this year were 3 baltimore ravens and 2 49ers. Do I really think that Isaiah Likely, a dude who legit looks like a wide receiver, is the best run blocking tight end in football with at least 100 blocking snaps? 

Spoiler alert, I do not. Yet that's how he graded.  I do not think Tyler Kroft is third best run blocking tight end in the NFL and I've seen a lot of that guy this year lol. 

Goedert's run blocking grades were phenomenal his first three years in the league. Per PFF, they've dropped quite a bit since Ertz left the team. That could be a function of his role on the team in heavy personnel, could be the additional passing game usage, whether there are now updated blocking assignments and his location in the personnel package, etc. His run blocking went from 80 and 81 in 19/20 to 65 and 55. He's had much higher highs than Kittle in the run blocking, but KIttle has been more consistent year to year due to the last two years. 

Kittle gets a lot of love because he's also more likely to put on a "highlight reel" block

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1 minute ago, EagleBlueDon said:

I don't think you understand just how good of a receiver AJ Brown is.

Sure I do....When did I ever say he wasn't very good? I tagged AZ to show what I was responding to and what you doubled down on. 

Brown is a beast, single handedly beat us last year when he was with Tennessee. Find where I said anything bad about him. 

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14 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Big **** Brock gonna shock the world Sunday. Feel like every Non 49er fan has their money on the Eagles... this is like totally evenly matched 50/50 game IMO. I think the 49ers will do enough to win and have a more talented team (sightly). But overall, I haven't looked this forward to an NFC Championship ever. And I've been watching football since 1997. And the last time the NFC Championship was between teams this good on paper were probably Dallas/San Francisco in both 1993 and 1994. 

I really don't think he is. I don't know that we are going to get the Brock Purdy falling apart game that a lot of eagles fans are predicting (not on here, just generally speaking), I think he'll probably be okay, but I expect the 49ers offense to be largely stunted and sputtering. I just don't think he'll fall all over himself. 

I think this is closer to a 70/30 game than a 50/50. The Eagles can match the 49ers on A+ talent, may have a bit more B level talent. The rosters are pretty close...I don't blame anyone for taking either side on the rosters (outside of QB), but then you add in the quarterback difference, and most importantly, the matchup problems. The eagles have a lot of strengths that are going to hurt the 49ers pressure points. I've been pretty consistent thinking that this isn't going to be a one score game. 31-20, something like that. I could see a situation where it's mostly a 2 score game and the 49ers score late to make it a one score game and it ends something like 27 - 22 or something. 

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15 minutes ago, EagleBlueDon said:

I don't think you understand just how good of a receiver AJ Brown is.

Likewise, I don’t think you understand how good of a receiver Deebo Samuel is.

I’ve got no dog in the fight - but AJ vs Deebo is a push at WR.

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