Week 5 GDT: Broncos vs. NY Jets

[broncosfan_101]

I̶t̶’s̶ s̶o̶ o̶v̶e̶r̶ We’re so back

[Broncofan]

This is going to be such an epic matchup, but not for the reasons anyone thought when the season began:

VJ vs. Nathaniel Hackett - who will be worse?   Sad to say it's a total toss-up here.    

Our run D vs. Breece Hall (can we set the edge) - Dalvin Cook is showing clear signs of decline, but man, is Breece Hall special.   At 12 months from ACL repair, Hall is "only" at 90+ percent explosion - but even then, he's a gamebreaker.   Fans may recall he hurt himself after taking one to the house against us - I'm sure he remembers well.  The main way this doesn't end up being the case - Hackett decides to keep timesharing the 2 RB's and limiting the touches.    If it's up to us to stop Breece Hall with 15-18 touches, that's a massive problem.  Our total lack of DL help is a major problem here.

Our pass coverage vs. everyone but Garrett Wilson (unless VJ decides not to take GW out) -   Garrett Wilson is a problem.   If VJ was smart, he'd either bracket Wilson, or put PS2 on him.   But that's not a given that VJ is that smart.   If he does decide to take out Wilson, then we will need to be better in coverage pretty much everywhere else.   Tyler Conklin as TE, Breece Hall as a pass catcher and WR Allen Lazard are the players where our subpar secondary/ILB coverage can be exploited.  None of the WR/TE are good to great - but you don't need to be good to great to expose our current weaknesses (see:  Cole Kmet last week).  

Our pass rush vs. NYJ's OL - we all know that Zach Wilson is a bad QB.  But you do need to apply pressure to expose his weaknesses, it's pretty much standard even for meh QB's.   If we can't get pressure, even mediocre QB's can have enough success

 

Saleh vs. Payton - while Payton deserves a ton of praise for how he's upgraded the O (and leveraged Russell Wilson's abilities and limited his flaws), Robert Saleh deserves a ton of praise for building a really good D.   The first 3 games, the D was hamstrung by the O being completely ineffective, we saw what having more rest did for them vs. KC.    Seeing those 2 match each other will be a great battle as much as VJ vs. Hackett is a battle of incompetence.

Our OL vs. NYJ's front 4 - even with us putting up 24 pts vs. the Bears D (plus fumble-6), it's fair to say our OL is still not playing well in pass pro at all.   Well the Jets front 4 with Quinnen Williams can get pressure, and that's how you stymie our pass O.   NYJ has had a top 10 ranked run D by DVOA last year (as well as top 10 pass D), and the DL's pressure (along with the secondary).   We've seen what players like Aaron Donald & Chris Jones have done with our IOL in past years, Quinnen Williams offers the same threat this week.

Can Jaleel M carry a full run game load if Javonte is out - we know that Jaleel Mclaughlin has great skills, and he's showed out in limited touches.  How does that translate if he's the main guy?   Perine is a great pass-catcher / blocker but he's meant to be a complementary guy.  Obv we expect he'll see 8-12 touches and almost all the pass work snaps (because Jaleel's blocking is still very much a work in progress).   Can Jaleel block when we go play-action?  Will he hold up with a tough run D, key unanswered Q's. 

Who steps up if the CB's neutralize the WR's -  On the flip side, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are a top 10 CB duo.   Jeudy & Sutton (and when he's there, Mims) have a tough matchup, but you have to come through against tough matchups in this league.   But the bigger Q remains - who will step up if it's not the WR's?   This is where no Dulcich really hurts - Adam Trautman has no wiggle.   Maybe it's Brandon Johnson, or maybe we design up more RB work.   But it really sucks we have no game breakers in the TE / RB department with Javonte likely out (and that was old Javonte).

Penalties & Game Management - with a Hackett O and our current O, plus our D struggles, penalties and game management are likely going to be issues with both teams.  It's just a Q of which team is affected more.

TO's - ultimately what often decides close matchups.   As much as Russ is playing well with Payton's masterful scheming, he's facing a much stronger ballhawk / takeaway D, while Zach Wilson faces as soft a D as we can provide.    Who wins this likely decides the game.

As much as we know Hackett is apocalyptic as an OC - VJ is just as bad on the D side.    If we had Browning, Simmons and K'waun Williams (plus PJ Locke for pass D instead of Kareem Jackson), I'd have more hope.    But our matchups in key areas (DL vs. NYJ run game & Hall; OL vs. their DL, elite CB's vs. the only dangerous skill guys we have) really favor the Jets.  I think like everyone else, even with Zach Wilson, the Jets will put up 24+, the Q is whether our O can keep up vs. a much better D than we've faced all year long, and a HC/DC who can expose our biggest problems.   I think it's it's 24-20 NYJ, I'd like to be wrong obv.

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Sounds like someone is coming off IR for  us.   We definitely shouldn’t  have a hard time making room lol   

 

 

[BullsandBroncos]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Sounds like someone is coming off IR for  us.   We definitely shouldn’t  have a hard time making room lol   

 

 

I hope Mathis is next 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, BullsandBroncos said:

I hope Mathis is next 

Mathis is in his 2nd year.  Shouldn’t be starting but at least there’s hope he will improve.   

 

@lomaxgrUK mentioned this in preseason and it’s happened.  Payton’s love former Saints continues.  Unlike Trautman hopefully Smith has something left in the tank.   He could easily make the active list (obv shouldn’t displace top 4 but if Lil’ Jordan Humphrey isn’t key on ST then clear fit as 5th WR esp while Dulcich out).  

Edited October 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[BullsandBroncos]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Mathis is in his 2nd year.  Shouldn’t be starting but at least there’s hope he will improve.   

 

@lomaxgrUK mentioned this in preseason and it’s happened.  Payton’s love former Saints continues.  Unlike Trautman hopefully Smith has something left in the tank.   He could easily make the active list (obv shouldn’t displace top 4 but if Lil’ Jordan Humphrey isn’t key on ST then clear fit as 5th WR esp while Dulcich out).  

I've all but given up on the Greg Dulcich's of the world. Made of wet bounty towels 

[broncos67]

We win 23-20 or something along those lines. Breece Hall has a big day because our run D is atrocious but our offense should be good enough to score and outscore Zach Wilson. Of course, we made Justin Fields look like an all-pro, so anything is possible here.

[AnAngryAmerican]

I don't like the way we matchup with the Jets - our weakness play right into their strengths. And they're not at the mental point (yet) where all hope is lost - they're pissedoff and fought the Chiefs really hard last Sunday night. Saleh is a good coach and they have some scary pieces on their roster.

I have a feeling we are starting to turn the corner, however, I know we just beat only the Bears but something about the mood and energy around the team seems to be changing. There's no denying the offense looks day and night different from last year. I think since we can pull this one out. 

Broncos 30, Jets 26

[big_palooka]

I'm not buying the Broncos offense. Through 4 games, they've played the 29,23,26,31 ranked defenses in EPA. The Jets are 12th.

Conversely, the Jets have faced 4 of the top 11 defenses in EPA. The Broncos are 32nd.

The Jets defense is going to stuff the run and make things difficult for Wilson. The Jets can run the ball and Denver ranks 31st in run defense, so they don't need to rely on Zach Wilson much. 

Unless there is complete parity in this one, the Jets are going to dog walk them. 

[AKRNA]

3 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I'm not buying the Broncos offense. Through 4 games, they've played the 29,23,26,31 ranked defenses in EPA. The Jets are 12th.

Conversely, the Jets have faced 4 of the top 11 defenses in EPA. The Broncos are 32nd.

The Jets defense is going to stuff the run and make things difficult for Wilson. The Jets can run the ball and Denver ranks 31st in run defense, so they don't need to rely on Zach Wilson much. 

Unless there is complete parity in this one, the Jets are going to dog walk them. 

Pretty good points. The Jets have definitely faced better opposition.

Edited October 5, 2023 by AKRNA

[7DnBrnc53]

15 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I'm not buying the Broncos offense. Through 4 games, they've played the 29,23,26,31 ranked defenses in EPA. The Jets are 12th.

Conversely, the Jets have faced 4 of the top 11 defenses in EPA. The Broncos are 32nd.

The Jets defense is going to stuff the run and make things difficult for Wilson. The Jets can run the ball and Denver ranks 31st in run defense, so they don't need to rely on Zach Wilson much. 

Unless there is complete parity in this one, the Jets are going to dog walk them. 

Gotta agree. Denver was very lucky to win last week, and I am not happy about it. I want Williams. I don't agree with D-Mac in this video:

He says that a rebuild is bad. Wrong!

[Broncofan]

 

NGL those helmets are still 🔥

 

 

[broncos67]

15 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I'm not buying the Broncos offense. Through 4 games, they've played the 29,23,26,31 ranked defenses in EPA. The Jets are 12th.

Conversely, the Jets have faced 4 of the top 11 defenses in EPA. The Broncos are 32nd.

The Jets defense is going to stuff the run and make things difficult for Wilson. The Jets can run the ball and Denver ranks 31st in run defense, so they don't need to rely on Zach Wilson much. 

Unless there is complete parity in this one, the Jets are going to dog walk them. 

I don't know that I would say they'll "dog walk" us but I think it'll be a close game. Zach Wilson isn't particularly good, but obviously he played really well last Sunday. If he does that again, we lose.

[big_palooka]

45 minutes ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

I want Williams.

Same. And for parity, I would love to see that Broncos @ Raiders week 18 game be for that pick. 

Would the Broncos draft Williams with Wilson tying them up through 2026? Or trade the pick for a massive price to rebuild is my question.

[jolly red giant]

4 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Same. And for parity, I would love to see that Broncos @ Raiders week 18 game be for that pick. 

Would the Broncos draft Williams with Wilson tying them up through 2026? Or trade the pick for a massive price to rebuild is my question.

The Broncos would draft Williams - Wilson will not be on this team past 2024 (at the latest).