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2024 Draft Debate and Discussion


Epyon

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Best case scenario for me is that some combination of Nabers, Odunze, Verse, Murphy, Bowers, Olu are available at #9 and then we trade back, picking up a 2nd round pick and still draft one of those guys. Enjoy everyone!! 

Still doesn't feel real that the Bears are about to pick #1 overall with a consensus #1 QB available. WOW!!

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48 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

 

Poles really does keep you guessing...I do believe (and really hope) we are trying everything for one of these three wideouts.

Could be trying to bait the Raiders or Vikings to trade up for a QB. I wouldn't want to be bidding against teams trading up for a QB to get a WR. But if QB's go 4 out of the first 5 picks then the price of trading up a few slots to #7 or #8 will be lower.

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16 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think you’ve lost the plot here. No one is saying this was some peer reviewed paper on this subject. It’s clearly back of the napkin numbers. And Schefter laid out the parameters that were used, he’s not hiding anything or trying to sneak something by. 

But it clearly shows the trends on this matter, as you are using the exceptions to most circumstances (Mack). Most of the time, if a teams First Round pick lives up to or close to the expectations, they are going to get resigned by that team. And every single one of these position groups is subject to the same situations of guys “wanting to test free agency” or sides don’t agree on terms and trade them. Heck, I’d say just as many get that second deal if they haven’t quite lived up to the pick than are good and get away from that team because GMs don’t like to admit that they are wrong (not talking about obvious busts) it’s really a newer phenomenon that there are a good amount of 5YO not picked up

Even If you were to add in all the parameters (Trades, Franchise Tags, Good players walking for money) you are probably going to see the same type of distribution, sure the percentage will increase, but it’s likely that Lineman are the most to hit, and WRs are the most to miss

Teams don’t let good players get away very often, it’s why Free Agency comes with a buyer beware sticker. 

And there’s an argument that regardless of why that FRP doesn’t get a second contract from the team that drafted them, it is a miss. Not necessarily a bust, but any time you are picking in the Top 20/25 for sure, you are expecting that player to be part of the franchise for at least 7/8 years. If they are not there for any reason, it’s an organizational miss. It’s similar but different in the MLB draft when they look at the sign ability of the player. They could be great, but if you can’t keep them in the organization, how good of a pick is it really? Was Roquan Smith a “hit” for the Bears? Most would say no 

 

I saw the piece it came from.  I spent an entire career using and developing analytics and it's garbage.  It's completely invalid in any statistical sense and not worth the ink used to produce it.   I'll stand by that opinion without feeling any need to defend it.

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3 minutes ago, soulman said:

I saw the piece it came from.  I spent an entire career using and developing analytics and it's garbage.  It's completely invalid in any statistical sense and not worth the ink used to produce it.   I'll stand by that opinion without feeling any need to defend it.

Again, you’re lost in the sauce here man

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12 hours ago, malagabears said:

Don't shoot the messenger. 😉😉

I wasn't but I couldn't not comment on it being a ridiculous way to determine what top drafted players bust when so many don't re-sign with their original team after their rookie deals end.  There's no validity to using that method at all. 

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22 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Again, you’re lost in the sauce here man

I'm lost in nothing and when I call no joy and that I'm done debating something act like an adult and stop pursuing the issue with insults.

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