soulman Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 17 hours ago, TankWilliams said: I would like to see the actual players involved in this stat, seems like its a bit of an oversight to call players who decide to test free agency as misses It's a ridiculous and completely invalid way to analyze it. Let's take a different position like DE/Edge. Is Khalil Mack therefore considered a miss because he didn't re-sign with the Raiders? Dozens of players leave their original team in FA every year for any number of reasons including the most obvious economic ones. I'd love to see this ESPN guy present this theory in some academic sense. It's worthless. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 On 4/23/2024 at 6:56 PM, dll2000 said: Are men more athletic when they are 19 or 23? Generally speaking. Assuming they work out at both ages? Do I really have to explain this? This is a silly conversation. On average men hit their physical peak in the mid-late 20s. How long they can sustain it depends on how they care for themselves and their bodies. That's not to say that some pro athletes may not hit it sooner but for most peak performance comes between the ages of 25-29 at least according to research I've read. It might also explain why Poles tends to focus on FA within the range of ages and eschew those older than that as far as longer term deals go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 10 hours ago, Madmike90 said: The closer we get to draft day the more I think it's going to be Byron Murphy II at #9 or after a small trade back...people want to talk about his lack of length in this scheme but what I would remind people of is we were linked with Javon Hargrave in FA in 2022 who has 32" arms...this offseason we kicked the tyres on Christian Wilkins before the Raiders paid massively and he has 32'1/2" arms...Murphy has the same sort of length as Wilkins (much bigger hands than both)...as much as Flus loves length he is also a Rod Marinelli guy and those "undersized" penetrating UTs don't grow on trees...given how explosive Murphy is he could be a similar player to the likes of Hargraves, Wilkins or my comp for him Grady Jarrett...if he had that sort of career he would be well worth the pick... Would love Odunze to complete the three WRs we have as I think he would be an excellent compliment and anything we can do to help Caleb should be front and centre in our minds IMO but I can see why Murphy would make a ton of sense for us. I believe this may be Poles Plan B if picks don't fall as expected before #9. I would favor him over Verse because of his versatility and his ability to penetrate from DT. That said I still feel Poles will take Odunze if he's still on the board at #9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 2 hours ago, soulman said: I believe this may be Poles Plan B if picks don't fall as expected before #9. I would favor him over Verse because of his versatility and his ability to penetrate from DT. That said I still feel Poles will take Odunze if he's still on the board at #9. I really hope so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 https://twitter.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1783333981385048152?s=46&t=SQdrLo9OvA4uiIQWb73aCg Caleb wants Fashanu at #9…after listen to DJ & Brugler I am not sure he even makes it that far since the think teams want to trade up for OTs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: https://twitter.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1783333981385048152?s=46&t=SQdrLo9OvA4uiIQWb73aCg Caleb wants Fashanu at #9…after listen to DJ & Brugler I am not sure he even makes it that far since the think teams want to trade up for OTs. there are 8 first round OTs (if you count Barton) and the difference between OT2 and OT8 is not all that much. Teams may move up for Tackles, but it won’t be until the top talent goes off the board first (at least 3 QBs, the 3 WRs, and then obviously OT1). I’d have a very hard time seeing multiple teams trading up in front of us for Tackles. Teams from the middle of the first may move up for their preferred OT, but that’s not likely till 8 at the earliest, or even with us if we don’t covet one. But it’s more likely teams like KC moving up to make sure they get one of them once the run is in motion so they aren’t boxed into forcing a reach of Jordan Morgan or the BYU guy. Edited April 25 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 (edited) 3 hours ago, soulman said: It's a ridiculous and completely invalid way to analyze it. Let's take a different position like DE/Edge. Is Khalil Mack therefore considered a miss because he didn't re-sign with the Raiders? Dozens of players leave their original team in FA every year for any number of reasons including the most obvious economic ones. I'd love to see this ESPN guy present this theory in some academic sense. It's worthless. I think you’ve lost the plot here. No one is saying this was some peer reviewed paper on this subject. It’s clearly back of the napkin numbers. And Schefter laid out the parameters that were used, he’s not hiding anything or trying to sneak something by. But it clearly shows the trends on this matter, as you are using the exceptions to most circumstances (Mack). Most of the time, if a teams First Round pick lives up to or close to the expectations, they are going to get resigned by that team. And every single one of these position groups is subject to the same situations of guys “wanting to test free agency” or sides don’t agree on terms and trade them. Heck, I’d say just as many get that second deal if they haven’t quite lived up to the pick than are good and get away from that team because GMs don’t like to admit that they are wrong (not talking about obvious busts) it’s really a newer phenomenon that there are a good amount of 5YO not picked up Even If you were to add in all the parameters (Trades, Franchise Tags, Good players walking for money) you are probably going to see the same type of distribution, sure the percentage will increase, but it’s likely that Lineman are the most to hit, and WRs are the most to miss Teams don’t let good players get away very often, it’s why Free Agency comes with a buyer beware sticker. And there’s an argument that regardless of why that FRP doesn’t get a second contract from the team that drafted them, it is a miss. Not necessarily a bust, but any time you are picking in the Top 20/25 for sure, you are expecting that player to be part of the franchise for at least 7/8 years. If they are not there for any reason, it’s an organizational miss. It’s similar but different in the MLB draft when they look at the sign ability of the player. They could be great, but if you can’t keep them in the organization, how good of a pick is it really? Was Roquan Smith a “hit” for the Bears? Most would say no Edited April 25 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said: there are 8 first round OTs (if you count Barton) and the difference between OT2 and OT8 is not all that much. Teams may move up for Tackles, but it won’t be until the top talent goes off the board first (at least 3 QBs, the 3 WRs, and then obviously OT1). I’d have a very hard time seeing multiple teams trading up in front of us for Tackles. Teams from the middle of the first may move up for their preferred OT, but that’s not likely till 8 at the earliest, or even with us if we don’t covet one. But it’s more likely teams like KC moving up to make sure they get one of them once the run is in motion so they aren’t boxed into forcing a reach of Jordan Morgan or the BYU guy. I would disagree...I think Alt & Olu are well ahead of any of these other guys given they are known commodities at LT...everyone else is a bit of a projection...I could see the Saints being aggressive in trying to move up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 4 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: and the difference between OT2 and OT8 is not all that much 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Twitter has taken some positions. Anecdotally and unscientifically this is what I see: It seems most fans and media are good with Odunze. Media analysts and podcasters really, really like Murphy. They have influenced fans to this thinking I think. I think many people would be fine with Alt. Most of them are down on Verse. Not sure why as they don’t give any reasoning with the posts. Not a lot of other people are discussed with any regularity. A whole lot think we are trading up for MH Jr. - I largely ignore them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGRIESE Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 5 hours ago, Madmike90 said: https://twitter.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1783333981385048152?s=46&t=SQdrLo9OvA4uiIQWb73aCg Caleb wants Fashanu at #9…after listen to DJ & Brugler I am not sure he even makes it that far since the think teams want to trade up for OTs. Ah I forgot Billy blocked me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 16 minutes ago, dll2000 said: Media analysts and podcasters really, really like Murphy. They have influenced fans to this thinking I think. I’ve watched the DT’s ad nauseum and still don’t see how or why Murphy is above Newton. They have similar weaknesses. Newton is my #1 DT until he proves me wrong 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 6 minutes ago, GOGRIESE said: Ah I forgot Billy blocked me 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 20 minutes ago, Ty21 said: 🤔 I said it, and Ill say it again. Actually if you let me go OL, and include JPJ I dont think there is much difference in OL2 through OL9 Alt is by far the best OL to me in this draft, and I have Fashanu a rung behind him, but then Latham-Fuaga-Fautanu are only a rung behind him. And then Mims, JPJ, Barton and Guyton are all Top 20 talents. Its an OL First Round, we would be smart to get one. But my whole point in with this rant is, around the league there isnt a consensus #1 OT in this draft. The most would say Alt, but some still say Latham, others are on Olu and even Fuaga/Fautanu have their backers. Thats how close all of these guys are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 8 hours ago, soulman said: I can't agree with the methodology at all. It's ludicrous. For the past 20 years or more WR have made themselves the divas of NFL players. They've pushed their pay scale to the upper limit of all non-QB positions. Some teams can't afford to keep them once they're out of their rookie deal so they redraft the position and start over. How does the WR who signs with another team in FA come into the picture when he continues to produce at a high or even All Pro level. He's surely not a miss but this way of analyzing it would say he was. Sorry brother Jim but there is not even one serious analyst or statistician that wouldn't laugh this approach out the door. Don't shoot the messenger. 😉😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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