What QB Do We Want Going Into 2018?

[gopherwrestler]

Just now, Riddle said:

Actually just talked about this scenario with a friend. I think it is likely that Shurmur tries to take him with.

yep! obviously if he would go to say the Bears he most likely would not with just drafting MT.

[golf333333]

14 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said:

I could write an article saying how bad he was. You could literally go up and down that list in 2016 and I couldn't find a QB who had a worse season than Case.

Outside of this year, his truly best year was his rookie year where he played in 2 games. Didn't win anything, but he was throwing tho some good players and had some good games. Andre Johnson and Hopkins.

The hardest part about judging Case is still he was never on a good team. I am not saying I don't like him, or don't want him to even be our future QB.

The whole argument I was helping defend a little bit is I don't believe he is going to get franchise tag type of money over one year of solid production.

I just don't see it happening. I believe the team will let him walk and settle with Teddy (not that much of a settlement) before they are forced to franchise him.

Case was absolutely terrible last year. Previous years before that he never really had a shot at starting. Showed a little promise his rookie year when taking over for Schaub.

 

Again, you're failing to consider the circumstances even a little bit. Jared Goff, who by all metrics is clearly a top 10 QB in the NFL right now, was hideous last year in the same scenario that you're judging case off of. Worse than Keenum. By far. So using last year as an argument is absolutely ridiculous.

[Riddle]

2 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Do people think Shurmur would take Case over Bradford? 

I could see either being an option, likely depends on Sam's health. It may be a moot point if Shurmur ends up in a place like Detroit or Chicago where they presumably have a QB in place, but Arizona with Shurmur and one or the other could make a ton of sense. That team has pieces to contend if they can get a QB. 

[gopherwrestler]

Just now, SemperFeist said:

Do people think Shurmur would take Case over Bradford? 

I would say there is a possibility.

Bradford still has that injury risk (Shurmur I'm sure knows plenty on this).

Cardinals are good enough, if Bradford is injured and their back-up plan and they took a QB that isn't ready to start, they could be in rough shape.

If they took Case, and he can continue to preform like he has here this year, they could move on from him in a few years and move onto the Rookie Shurmur has groomed, or keep sticking it with Case.

[Riddle]

I can also imagine a scenario where a robust market for Bradford doesn't really develop, and he signs with us or *Insert Shurmur Coached Team Here* to be a back up. I can't ever remember a year when there were so many potential solid free agent QB options, plus highly touted draft prospects.

 

[gopherwrestler]

1 minute ago, golf333333 said:

Again, you're failing to consider the circumstances even a little bit. Jared Goff, who by all metrics is clearly a top 10 QB in the NFL right now, was hideous last year in the same scenario that you're judging case off of. Worse than Keenum. By far. So using last year as an argument is absolutely ridiculous.

Goff was also on his true rookie year.

Goff by the end of the year started to come along and did look better than Case.

Case last year could not even stay in the pocket with no pressure, he was constantly worried. His accuracy was so much worse than Goff ever was last year. Case was just a hideous thrower.

Case what he could do is something he is doing this year, he could make some plays end up happening. Except this year, he is throwing a lot more on target and we are asking him to do a lot less.

 

Any team that will be willing to sell him a contract will look back at past success. Of course he will be getting someone to gamble off of this years success, but they still will look back to the 2016 season and that is why he isn't going to get Kirk Cousins type money.

[SemperFeist]

The injury to Bradford is obviously the hang up, but Shurmur has coached Bradford at each of his stops, was a key factor in drafting Bradford, and has advocated for trading for him twice. 

I just think that, if he checks out medically, Bradford would be the QB that shurmur takes with him. 

[CriminalMind]

Tag Options:

Non-exclusive franchise Tag = 1 year @ the average of the top 5 QB salaries (~$23.55M). Player can negotiate with other teams, but original team can match the offer (or receive 2 1st round picks). Generally, once this tag is place, no team offers a contract since 2 1st round picks to steep a mandated price (in the current NFL system with rookie contracts).

Exclusive franchise Tag = 1 year @  the average of the top 5 QB salaries (~$23.55M). Player cannot negotiate with other teams. (not used as much).

Transition Tag = 1 year @ the average of the top 10 QB salaries for 2017 (~$22M). Player can negotiate with other teams. Original team can match any offer from another team, but no compensation if the team chooses to not match. (and it could be a player with Case).

The transition tag is similar to the Restricted Free Agency status in NBA. An NFL team could wait until the last day to place the transition tag on a player. If player decides to negotiate with another team and a contract is agreed upon. The original team has 7 days to match the offer or not. It is expected the original team will take the maximum time to match or not match the offer as a deterrent to other teams from offering a contract to said player (since it ties up the new team money, with the unknown if they will get the player in the end, while other QB options could disappear as well).  No more poison pill clauses either which is positive for the Vikings here.

With such a low potential difference between non-exclusive franchise tag and transition tag for the QB position, I don't really see the transition tag being an option here (with Case).

 

[SteelKing728]

Like I said before, I want to see Case in the playoffs before considering his next contract.

For Teddy, I just want to see him play in a meaningful game, but that's unlikely to happen. We've seen him in the playoffs and he did enough for us to win/not lose but that was before the injury.

[vikings209]

1 hour ago, SemperFeist said:

Do people think Shurmur would take Case over Bradford? 

If he goes to the Bears I think he takes Bradford over Case because of MT being there already. Bradford would be a nice stop gap QB to have while MT learns the system.

[Guest]

I think the worst case scenario would be if the Vikings struck out on Bridgewater, Keenum and Bradford (assuming all are healthy), and all three walk out the door.  Then what?  I'm not turning over the franchise with the players the Vikings have to a rookie!  I don't care how good the rookie is he will still make rookie mistakes that will cost the team games.  I, personally, am not interested in Kirk Cousins.  He's nice guy and all, but he remains horribly inconsistent and is hugely overpaid!  I don't think any other qb's, with starting experience, will be coming available in free agency this off season.  Is that correct?

So, I don't think Sam will ever be fully healthy.  Of the three that I would let go, he's the one.  The Vikings HAVE to keep either Teddy of Case.  Today...I am ok with either.

 

[Heimdallr]

35 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

I think the worst case scenario would be if the Vikings struck out on Bridgewater, Keenum and Bradford (assuming all are healthy), and all three walk out the door. 

I can't see that happening. For all 3 players, Minnesota will be their top option (if they are the only QB being re-signed). 

If Bradford and Keenum leave, why would Bridgewater want to go anywhere else? We have the best supporting roster in the league, great coaches, and they don't need to move.

Unless Spielman completely loses his mind and offers them all ridiculously low contracts, at least one will be back. 

[Cearbhall]

32 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

I think the worst case scenario would be if the Vikings struck out on Bridgewater, Keenum and Bradford (assuming all are healthy), and all three walk out the door.  Then what?  I'm not turning over the franchise with the players the Vikings have to a rookie!  I don't care how good the rookie is he will still make rookie mistakes that will cost the team games.  I, personally, am not interested in Kirk Cousins.  He's nice guy and all, but he remains horribly inconsistent and is hugely overpaid!  I don't think any other qb's, with starting experience, will be coming available in free agency this off season.  Is that correct?

So, I don't think Sam will ever be fully healthy.  Of the three that I would let go, he's the one.  The Vikings HAVE to keep either Teddy of Case.  Today...I am ok with either.

 

If the Vikings don't sign any of the three or Cousins, maybe they are planning to make a run at Jimmy Garoppolo or Drew Brees. A trade for Alex Smith? Maybe the Jags let Bortles go. Tyrod Taylor could be free. So could Eli Manning. If they want someone younger with a few starts AJ McAarron could be an option. There might be a lot of QB movement this year. Indeed, if three non-Vikings teams sign the Vikings trio there will be some teams letting go of QBs with starting experience. 

 

[Purplexing]

43 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

I think the worst case scenario would be if the Vikings struck out on Bridgewater, Keenum and Bradford (assuming all are healthy), and all three walk out the door. 

So, I don't think Sam will ever be fully healthy.  Of the three that I would let go, he's the one.  The Vikings HAVE to keep either Teddy of Case.  Today...I am ok with either.

 

These are trivial points.  An exception is the projection of the full health of Bradford, which presumes he isn't healthy enough to perform well now.

Here's a simple look at the issues with each QB, and a possible ranking of their odds to return as Vikings QBs:

1. Keenum - performed very well recently.  Considered by a few NFL analysts for MVP.  Not recently injured.  Likely to be re-signed to start, at starters salary level, for 2018- ...

2. Bridgewater - healthy now per doctors reports allowing him to return to active status.  No recent or prior performance stats to support him being re-signed to start in 2018- xxxx.  The possibility exists that he may be re-injured.  No recent performances to support his ability to avoid pass rushers or run for yardage.  Possibly re-signed by Rick Pickumulator and Brzezinski to a low-risk contract, with a modest salary reflective of a backup QB role, possibly with several incentives for PT and production goals.

3. Bradford - healthy now per doctors clearance to return to the active roster.  Knee injury was repaired by surgery, rather than wait for it to heal naturally, increasing the chance it will respond favorably and he can play at or near prior levels.  He has 1 full year of very good performance, per completion % and QBR, and 1+ games this past season with a great game and a poor/ mediocre 1/2 game.  So, recent experience indicates he can suceed as a starter.  But, due to the potential for re-injury, (not the unsubstantiated claim 'he isn't fully healed now'), teams bidding for his services will discount their bids and offer a lower-risk contract with incentives for PT and production goals.  Likely to leave MN for a QB needy team.  A team with a trusted medical staff may be willing to pay him starter level salary, but with an escape cause in terms of years of the contract.

4. Sloter - likely to return as  developmental project, due to time invested in him to date.  Assumed to be a #3 QB, or #2 if a starter is injured.

Side issue: with 4 teams interested in Shurmur's services, it's likely he'll leave Minnesota in 2018.  It's more likely Spielman / Brzezinski protect against loss of Keenum than Bradford to Shurmur's new employer.   And, Pickumulator Spielman and Brzezinski cannot try to undercut/ low-ball any QB they negotiate with to be the presumed starter, despite the uncertainties surrounding each of them.  But they can pay the proper backup level salary for the backup QB. 

[Klomp]

2 hours ago, gopherwrestler said:

I have said it before I still believe he gets to the 20M a year range. Right around the Jay Cutler money/yr from last year. I just don't see the team fighting to franchise him. A team will offer him that 20M.

Cutler got $10M a year