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Packers would of had no chance against healthy version of the Chiefs (we beat them, but going against the injured version but they were healthy by the Super Bowl).

But if the 49ers did lose to the Rams, then:

  • Vikings get killed by 49ers
  • Injured Seahawks still beat extremely injured shouldn't of made the playoffs but Cowboys totally choked on their own egos Eagles
  • Injured Seahawks still lose to Packers
  • 49ers at Saints is a complete toss up, clearly edge goes to 49ers as they beat them in New Orleans during the regular season but it was a 48-46 shootout, but 49ers won each half even, so I think you have to give it to them
  • 49ers beat Packers as Lambeau, I mean it's not clear cut, as it's possible the crowd noise motivates the players sooner, but 49ers had more tricks in their bag (based on the Saints game), that they didn't even have to pull out.

Only 2019 NFC teams that might of stopped the 49ers is a healthy Seahawks (and they weren't healthy by the playoffs), and Saints which might be able to out score them.

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14 hours ago, HokieHigh said:

the RB market is so saturated... i think when AJ hits the market he will have a hard time finding an offer the is substantially higher than the packers offer for him to split the load with AJ dillon

Jones is still young with lower tread on his tires.  And make no mistake, he's electric.  I think he's gonna get 40M over 4 years.  And that contract will be structured for him to be released after two.  Betting that GB will have a lower number than 4 for 40, but they would structure it to give him more security over the life of the contract.  And ultimately, Jones is gone and we will see him cut after two years with his new team.

Typically I'm off by 30% on these things, so it is probably more like a 4 year, 52M deal.

But the devil will be in the details with his contract.  

I love the guy.  Wish he'd be here long term.  But in no way is paying him a priority over Bakh or King.

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There is no way Aaron Jones gets a better deal than Henry. This year the RB market is going to be saturated. Unless he takes a 3Y/24M deal I don't see the Packers giving him another contract, much less after spending a 2nd round pick on a RB this year. My guess is that we pay/tag Bakhtiari and we let King, Jones and Linsley go.

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25 minutes ago, Beast said:

Packers would of had no chance against healthy version of the Chiefs (we beat them, but going against the injured version but they were healthy by the Super Bowl).

I disagree.  Of the other 3 final 4 teams, we had the best shot against the Chiefs because of the make-up or our team.  The Titans would have run all over us, just like the 49ers did.  The Chiefs also don't have the defensive personnel the 49ers have.  It would have been a high scoring affair, but saying that we would have no chance is to greatly underrate the Packers and greatly overrate the Chiefs.

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1 minute ago, VonKarman said:

There is no way Aaron Jones gets a better deal than Henry. This year the RB market is going to be saturated. Unless he takes a 3Y/24M deal I don't see the Packers giving him another contract, much less after spending a 2nd round pick on a RB this year. My guess is that we pay/tag Bakhtiari and we let King, Jones and Linsley go.

I would agree. With the cap going to what it is I don't see how we could keep King and/or Jones

 

 

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12 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

There is no way Aaron Jones gets a better deal than Henry. This year the RB market is going to be saturated. Unless he takes a 3Y/24M deal I don't see the Packers giving him another contract, much less after spending a 2nd round pick on a RB this year. My guess is that we pay/tag Bakhtiari and we let King, Jones and Linsley go.

If King balls about this year and we let an elite CB walk out the door I would not be a happy camper. I know it's going to be challenging, but I really don't know if i see gutey letting a good young player at a premium position go.

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If the look at the numbers, regarding the cap we have:

2020

14.3M under the cap

Possible cuts that would generate cap relief: Montravious Adams (0.4M). That's it. There is no one else. We will probably sign someone during the year, those 14.3M will probably decrease. However, for 2021 I'll consider that we roll those 14.3M over.

 

2021 Projected cap space: 175M (you are a real optimist if you think that it's going to be much higher than that).

0.5M under the cap after rolling 2020 money over, 50 players under contract (need to add 3 more so we are virtually 1.3M over the cap in 2021)

FA: Bakhtiari, King, Linsley, Jones

Possible cuts: Billy Turner (4.5M dead money, frees 2.9M), Rick Wagner (1.75M dead money, frees 3.6M), Christian Kirksey (2M dead money, frees 4.4M), Dean Lowry (3.3M dead money, frees 2.7M), Josh Jackson (0.7M dead money, frees 0.7M) and Lucas Patrick (0.1M dead money, frees 0.8M). Well, and we also have Aaron Rodgers if we trade him (31.5M dead money, frees 4.2M). If we do not consider trading Rodgers, we can free up to 15.2M, but then we wouldn't have any OTs in our roster. Being more realistic, I think we can consider keeping Wagner and freeing up around 12M.

Then, we would be around 11M under the cap. Now you have to think that at least 7M is what one would need for rookie signings+signings during the season, so then again you pretty much have 4M in cap space to resign any of those guys. Here is where the fun starts. Options:

1 Reestructures: Rodgers? He's gonna be gone by 2022, but you could theoretically convert his P5 salary and free up 10M (I don't know if this is a very smart move though). Reestructure Z. Smith (+4.75M in cap space) or P. Smith (+3.4M in cap space).

2 Painful cuts: Cut one of the Smiths (+7.4M for Preston, +10.1M for Z). That'd be painful, but we have way too many resources invester in the ER. If Gary balls out it's a very real possibility.

3 Trade Rodgers.

So we are pretty much ****ed in 2021 and I'm pretty sure that we won't be contenders. Personally, if we don't wanna blow the team I'd try to make space for Bakhtiari (3Y/54M contract with a year 1 8M cap hit), draft a starting CB with the 1st round pick and get at least one OT in day 2. If we see that the team implodes, I'd trade Rodgers *** (dead money will be huge, but we don't have to invest a penny in QB and it's gonna be a great year to trade him), resign Bakhtiari and consider keeping Aaron Jones to make Love's live easier. I'd still let King go (it's quite painful) and draft a CB with our first pick.

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44 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

The market is becoming somewhat less saturated though. Joe Mixon just signed a 48M extension. Word is Saints are working on an extension for Kamara. The market for Jones could be improving. 

Unless Mixon gets hurt badly, the Bengals won't be looking for another RB, so it will still be saturated.

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2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I disagree.  Of the other 3 final 4 teams, we had the best shot against the Chiefs because of the make-up or our team.  The Titans would have run all over us, just like the 49ers did.  The Chiefs also don't have the defensive personnel the 49ers have.  It would have been a high scoring affair, but saying that we would have no chance is to greatly underrate the Packers and greatly overrate the Chiefs.

That's alright, as you have the right to be wrong :)

Chiefs almost beat the Packers with their backup QB and a ton of backup linemen, but sure, we'd do much better against their starters... NOT.

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9 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

home field is worth 7 points🍻

The betting world says its 3 and they put their money where their mouth is.

Also, how many points is Patrick Mahomes with more quality WRs than the Packers quality CBs worth? Hint, it's more than the Packers won by...

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