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2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)


TecmoSuperJoe

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3 hours ago, sherm said:

I'll go ahead and say I'm good with Bosa, Allen and yes even Ed Oliver with our top pick.

I’d be ok with Oliver as well as I envision him being extremely disruptive paired with Buckner in the middle. And with this draft being deep at edge rushers we could address that need in round 2 and/or 3 like a Jaylon Ferguson. If we took Oliver though, while the talent level in my mind equates to the selection spot, it seems a little excessive for us with so many needs else where and only currently having 5 picks. I’d like to see a trade down to add more picks and still get an edge guy if we miss out on Bosa and Allen. 

A name I’ve seen a couple of times in mocks has been Devin White, although I’m not sure he’s declared yet, but White and Werner in the middle would be an extremely athletic, active LB duo for us. There’s not a ton of edge help in FA outside of Anzah or Graham, the only two I see being allowed to hit the FA market, so if we land one of those guys I could get on board going else where with our 1st other than edge with a guy like Oliver, Williams or White.

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1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Pete Carroll just said he isn't resting his starters this week so the Cardinals have the #1 pick locked up.

Only chance we have of moving up is if the Raiders beat the Broncos tonight. 

If you were them, would you rather play Dallas or Chicago/LA? 

easy choice imo

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23 hours ago, Forge said:

Not to me. 757 loves him though. He's good, just not that high on the list for me

Whoooooaaaaa...I don't love him. Very few prospects in the history of the draft that I have Ioved. I just believe he's the best pure pass-rusher of the first round guys. Bosa is a great technician but I just think that Burns has the instincts and savvy on the edge to find the QB, better than the rest. Pollite has grown on me and I think he will be a stud at the next level. I'm just not enamored with the guys most around here are like Allen and Bosa. Burns has his warts but I think his athleticism and quickness is off the chart. He'll definitely need to bulk up but I believe he can play at around 245-250 lbs and still keep his quickness and speed. And I believe he has the highest ceiling of the bunch. He's gonna be soooo much better 4 years from now...especially after he gains his 'grown-man strength'. If anything, I like Quinnen Williams much more than I like ANY of the edge guys.

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I don't know how accurate it is, I heard it from Todd McShay on Dual threat, but supposedly, Oliver is like 260-270 pounds. I'm going to be floored if that is the case, but if it is, that's a real concern for what / where he's going to be at the next level. People love to throw out the Donald comp since they are both "undersized", But Donald was still 285-290 pounds. If Oliver is legitimately in the low 270's, that's a concern. You can't put him on the end because he'd lose his leverage against 6'6" tackles, and he's going to be too undersized on the interior in the NFL. Really want to see if that is true or not. 

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3 hours ago, Forge said:

I don't know how accurate it is, I heard it from Todd McShay on Dual threat, but supposedly, Oliver is like 260-270 pounds. I'm going to be floored if that is the case, but if it is, that's a real concern for what / where he's going to be at the next level. People love to throw out the Donald comp since they are both "undersized", But Donald was still 285-290 pounds. If Oliver is legitimately in the low 270's, that's a concern. You can't put him on the end because he'd lose his leverage against 6'6" tackles, and he's going to be too undersized on the interior in the NFL. Really want to see if that is true or not. 

I am so disinterested in another interior lineman, I will be furious if we take one.

 

also, I have a source in the Raiders orginization (not joking), who told me that Bosa is a rampant PED user. Not sure it hurts his stock since it’s so easy to get around the NFLs worthless testing procedure, but also worth keeping an eye on. 

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On 12/22/2018 at 4:00 PM, N4L said:

Well in this scenario they would lose out on the QB they want. If that's the choice their front office makes, then so be it.

We've seen it time and time again, people will 'overpay' to get a FQB. Especially when the clock is ticking, it feels like the jags are a team ripe for squeezing. Their window is closing very quickly and they need to capitalize on the defensive talent they have before they self destruct.

Maybe that means they make a move for a veteran before the draft, but if they dont, then they will be feeling the HEAT to get 'their guy' at the top of the draft. They simply cannot go into next year with only bortles, and they don't have the cap space to pay any FA QBs without some serious manuevering 

They would be a team I wouldn't mind trading next year's second to in exchange for next year's first plus a third or fourth. I could see the jags convincing themselves they'd be picking in the late 20s and that we would be top 10 so in their eyes it's a drop of 15-20 spots. In reality I think it's just as likely that it would be reversed and it's a difference of 35-40 spots in our favor. Thats not a second round pick, but it could be good value for moving one spot this year. 

Either way the SRP can be used as leverage to get the jags to up their offer 

A raider fan told me last night he hopes they don't get the first pick because he would rather trade down than take bosa. I understand the reasoning for them because their team is so old lol at least we are a young team? 

There's literally no precedent of a team giving up that kind of value.  And if the Jaguars were that worried about missing out on their QB, they're more likely to make that deal with a team whose picking ahead of the 49ers.  Teams overpay to get a franchise QB.  They don't pay a premium on top of a premium.  When the Jets moved up pre-draft, they gave up THREE SRPs to move up 3 spots and that was without knowing who was on the board.  They had to pay that premium in order to guarantee that the Colts wouldn't move that pick to another team.  The Bills gave up TWO SRPs to move up from 12 to 7.  In 2017, the Bears gave up a pair of thirds and a fourth to move up one spot to select Mitchell Trubisky.  The trade for a QB like Herbert is going to mirror closer to what the Bears gave up for Trubisky than what did for Sam Darnold or even Josh Allen.

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2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Raiders up 14-0 on the Broncos. Please don't choke and give this game away. Getting the 2nd pick will be clutch. 

We wouldn't be locked in there. The Jets can pass us on SOS depending on the outcome of next week's games

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23 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Stop it, not trying to hear none of that lol. 

What needs to happen for us to clinch the #2 pick? 

I haven't run through all the games or anything, but based on SoS percentages, I'd say we are one game, maaaaaybe 2 games ahead, but I think only one. I'd say if our opponents win 2 more games then the Jets next week, we get three. If our opponents get fewer / same wins next week, we will pick two. If our opponents win one or more game (again, I don't know the exact opponent records right now, so it could be two) then the Jets opponents next week, we'd flip a coin at the combine (there are no additional tie breakers between Jets and niners besides SOS)

 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

I haven't run through all the games or anything, but based on SoS percentages, I'd say we are one game, maaaaaybe 2 games ahead, but I think only one. I'd say if our opponents win 2 more games then the Jets next week, we get three. If our opponents get fewer / same wins next week, we will pick two. If our opponents win one or more game (again, I don't know the exact opponent records right now, so it could be two) then the Jets opponents next week, we'd flip a coin at the combine (there are no additional tie breakers between Jets and niners besides SOS)

 

Well every game this weekend is a divisional game so that is going to cancel out a lot of wins and losses for both teams' opponents. 

The only games that can change SOS this weekend are non-divisional conference games. For us, that's bucs giants. For the Jets it's browns broncos ... So we need the broncos to beat the chargers, browns to beat Ravens while the giants and bucs to lose to the cowboys falcons respectively. 

 

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23 minutes ago, N4L said:

Well every game this weekend is a divisional game so that is going to cancel out a lot of wins and losses for both teams' opponents. 

The only games that can change SOS this weekend are non-divisional conference games. For us, that's bucs giants. For the Jets it's browns broncos ... So we need the broncos to beat the chargers, browns to beat Ravens while the giants and bucs to lose to the cowboys falcons respectively. 

 

Cowboys have division and seed locked up so they won't play their starters much, if at all. Giants will likely win. Falcons and Bucs will be a competitive game, but I'm hoping the Falcons pull it off.

Broncos have ZERO percent shot against the Chargers who will be potentially playing for the division.

Ravens get in the playoffs with a win, so will be tough for the Browns.

Damn, doesn't really look good for us. But if we are only up one game on the Jets, then I could easily see the pick being determined by a coin toss.

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