Trubisky vs Watson, long term

[showtime]

1 hour ago, Buckweath said:

Goff clearly superior to Wilson?? Hum not sure about that, at all. 

 

I feel like Wilson's surrounding cast is lacking but the guy has won a SB, is still only 29 years old and has been an elite QB for a few years.

Give me Wilson over Goff.

I'm talking about this season.  I don't care about Wilson's SB from years ago.

[ET80]

13 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I won't ignore that Watson has a worse OL but the Bears OL has not been the same since losing it's best player (Kyle Long) to injury. 

You could replace Kyle Long with Shelly Long (Diane from Cheers') and the Bears OL would still be much better than the Texans OL. Statistically speaking, Watson's OL is worse than the David Carr OL in the expansion season in 2002. Watson is under pressure on close to 50% of his pass attempts, that's is historically bad.

This argument holds zero water. The Bears 2nd string OL is probably as good (maybe better) than the Texans starters, and I'm not exaggerating by saying this.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

You could replace Kyle Long with Shelly Long (Diane from Cheers') and the Bears OL would still be much better than the Texans OL. Statistically speaking, Watson's OL is worse than the David Carr OL in the expansion season in 2002. Watson is under pressure on close to 50% of his pass attempts, that's is historically bad.

This argument holds zero water. The Bears 2nd string OL is probably as good (maybe better) than the Texans starters, and I'm not exaggerating by saying this.

40%(thru 9 weeks), not close to 50%. 

Yet, Watson is 2nd in the league in time to throw....

PLAYER NAME	Time to Throw
Josh Allen	3.15
Deshaun Watson	3.11
Dak Prescott	2.98
Russell Wilson	2.96
Jared Goff	2.93
Aaron Rodgers	2.92
Patrick Mahomes	2.85
Sam Darnold	2.84
Blake Bortles	2.78
Alex Smith	2.78

...and it's not like he is escaping pressure and avoiding sacks at a high rate either (T-14th in the league thru 9 weeks). 

This goes back to my point about Watson holding onto the ball too long.

[Pool]

Trubiskys a bum. I didn't even notice him on the field today. Talk about a lame duck QB.

[ET80]

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

40%(thru 9 weeks), not close to 50%

Close enough when you look at Trubisky's figure (which I'd surmise is nowhere in that ballpark). 

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

and it's not like he is escaping pressure and avoiding sacks at a high rate either (T-14th in the league thru 9 weeks). 

Tied at 14th (so roughly midpoint, give or take) with an OL that ranks 32nd - and you're arguing he's not escaping pressure. How did you come to that conclusion, may I ask? It would serve that the 32nd ranked OL would allow more sacks, would it not? But roughly half of the league gives up more sacks. How is that not showing as a guy escaping the rush?

In the same way Trubisky backers are accusing others of only basing their views on early season performances, I'll have to state the same on your assessment that Watson is holding onto the ball too long. Maybe the first three/four weeks of the season, but that's it.

[Heinz D.]

33 minutes ago, Pool said:

Trubiskys a bum. I didn't even notice him on the field today. Talk about a lame duck QB.

[Superman(DH23)]

11 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

He's definitely improved from what I saw earlier in the season but it's still a habit he frequented against the Vikings last Sunday night. It's more constant than you think.

Fair enough but I saw it repeatedly versus the Vikes. A QBs mental clock is innately developed over years of playing the position from a young age. It's something that is almost impossible to coach and irreversible to some extent. I can't really blame him for leaving early when the first read(s) aren't there because he moves so well, but it's an ugly trait that takes away from the more crucially valuable element of being a pocket passer. It's a style he'll marginally improve on but I don't think he'll eventually ever kick it. I can't think of many, or any for that matter, young QBs that have. 

This is his ceiling, but he has a long way to go. I see more Alex Smith than I do Russell Wilson.

Trubisky throws way harder than Watson. A fastball is more difficult for a receiver to corral than well-timed anticipation throw. Trubisky's velocity leads to inaccurate balls and throws that are difficult for the receiver to adjust to. In comparison to Watson, I recall Bears receivers forced to adjust themselves off balance, drop to the ground, or adjust their strides more often. I think we can agree this is another area he's improving. 

I'm not using Nagy's system against him, I'm arguing he's better from 10 yards off the line than in the pocket because he can see the rush and doesn't have to sense it. Irregardless of the system he plays my point remains. Kudos though for Nagy to put Trubisky in a position where he's maximizing his strengths and avoiding his weaknesses. 

The point remains, from what I've seen Watson is far more comfortable working the pocket than Trubisky. Just because Watson is asked to play from the shotgun at the same rate as Trubisky doesn't mean he isn't capable of operating the pocket in shorter drops. I don't think Trubisky is capable.

 

Overall I think we can both agree he's improving in the areas we've outlined. You're more optimistic than me in the capacity in which he'll improve. I'll concede he's getting better in multiple areas so far. The reason I made the original "Mitch Trubisky's Future" thread was based on the dreadful performances earlier in the year, it prompted me to jump the gun assuming he was doomed. I may have jumped the gun. I retract the bits about him not seeing his second Bears contract. It could happen. Though I still don't believe he's surpasses the Alex Smith rung. I don't think he has the talent to transcend his offense, but I do think he's capable of winning games leading a good team. Watson in my opinion, has a higher ceiling who is capable of more for the reasons I've already outlined. He's more developed as a passer at this point. I would take him over Trubisky without hesitation right now. I hope I answered everything. It's nice talking to someone who's open to listening.

This is such a stinky load of crap and it's a media driven narrative that flys in the face of visual evidence, unless it's by design, he reads the entire field and if NOBODY is open he takes off.  He has maybe the best feel for the pocket in the entire league right now and looks like fricken Houdini with some of the escapes.  This idea that hes bailing if the first read isnt open is just so unbelievably not true.  Go look at the Lions tape, specially the Allen Robinson play, where he very clearly sees Robinson on the snap, which is his first read, scans back to middle then all the way left before flipping back all the way right and firing a beautiful strike to Robinson in the endzone. Go watch what he does on 3rd down.  Dont just listen to the talking heads who clearly haven't watched a single game of his sinceSeattle, until this last week probably.  The tape has it all on display.  Complete command pre snap.  Scanning the whole field. Eye manipulation.  Understanding not just the coverage the defense shows presnap, but what they are shifting to.  People loved to throw out the stat in the first 3 games that he was the lowest rated QB in the league under pressure. Since week 3 he has become the HIGHEST rated qb under pressure.  JAF was the Bears fan who was the major critic of Tru, and even HE is telling you your statements dont hold water.

[SmittyBacall]

On 11/22/2018 at 8:51 PM, Superman(DH23) said:

This is such a stinky load of crap and it's a media driven narrative that flys in the face of visual evidence, unless it's by design, he reads the entire field and if NOBODY is open he takes off.  He has maybe the best feel for the pocket in the entire league right now and looks like fricken Houdini with some of the escapes.  This idea that hes bailing if the first read isnt open is just so unbelievably not true.  Go look at the Lions tape, specially the Allen Robinson play, where he very clearly sees Robinson on the snap, which is his first read, scans back to middle then all the way left before flipping back all the way right and firing a beautiful strike to Robinson in the endzone. Go watch what he does on 3rd down.  Dont just listen to the talking heads who clearly haven't watched a single game of his sinceSeattle, until this last week probably.  The tape has it all on display.  Complete command pre snap.  Scanning the whole field. Eye manipulation.  Understanding not just the coverage the defense shows presnap, but what they are shifting to.  People loved to throw out the stat in the first 3 games that he was the lowest rated QB in the league under pressure. Since week 3 he has become the HIGHEST rated qb under pressure.  JAF was the Bears fan who was the major critic of Tru, and even HE is telling you your statements dont hold water.

I don't know what media you're referring to I've never seen this outlined online or on TV. This is what I see. I see it in the tape.

[AntonChigurh]

On 11/20/2018 at 4:16 PM, beardown3231 said:

It's relevant because you've now admitted to watching Trubisky for one game and you happened to pick the game against a defensive mind that historically and notoriously kicks young QBs' *****.

Have faith in a qb that cant throw accurately beyond 10 yards brehs.

[beardown3231]

10 minutes ago, AntonChigurh said:

Have faith in a qb that cant throw accurately beyond 10 yards brehs.

Another guy who bought Lombardi’s book and also doesn’t watch the Bears play

[JAF-N72EX]

13 minutes ago, AntonChigurh said:

Have faith in a qb that cant throw accurately beyond 10 yards brehs.

I guess I'm out of touch with teenage slang but what's brehs? My on-line dictionary doesn't even recognize that as a word.

 

On 11/22/2018 at 6:34 PM, ET80 said:

Tied at 14th (so roughly midpoint, give or take) with an OL that ranks 32nd - and you're arguing he's not escaping pressure.

I said at a high rate. Not that he was not avoiding sacks altogether.  

On 11/22/2018 at 6:34 PM, ET80 said:

How did you come to that conclusion, may I ask? It would serve that the 32nd ranked OL would allow more sacks, would it not? But roughly half of the league gives up more sacks. How is that not showing as a guy escaping the rush?

If a QB is escaping sacks while his OL is given up that much pressure per snap, then said QB should leading the league in the number of sacks avoided, seeings as he is given more chances than most. But he's not. Which is a result of him holding onto the ball too long. 

[ET80]

7 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

If a QB is escaping sacks while his OL is given up that much pressure per snap, then said QB should leading the league in the number of sacks avoided, seeings as he is given more chances than most. But he's not. Which is a result of him holding onto the ball too long.

Did anyone cite a stat of avoided sacks? Apologies if I didn't see it. 

Based on what has been cited - sacks per team, time to throw - and then referencing that against the OLs overall performance (32nd per PFF) I can only come to the conclusion that said QB is creating time as well as avoiding sacks. Ask anyone who watches the Texans frequently and that's going to be the consensus - Watson is part Houdini, part Ben Roethlisberger this season, ducking and sliding away from sacks and creating extra time to throw. 

If there's evidence showing otherwise, I'm all ears.

[JAF-N72EX]

21 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Did anyone cite a stat of avoided sacks? Apologies if I didn't see it. 

Based on what has been cited - sacks per team, time to throw - and then referencing that against the OLs overall performance (32nd per PFF) I can only come to the conclusion that said QB is creating time as well as avoiding sacks. Ask anyone who watches the Texans frequently and that's going to be the consensus - Watson is part Houdini, part Ben Roethlisberger this season, ducking and sliding away from sacks and creating extra time to throw. 

If there's evidence showing otherwise, I'm all ears.

I cited the stats in the same post you quoted (I think?)--(40% pressure rate thru 9 weeks and Watson T-14th in the league in ) thru 9 weeks--per SIS (take for what it's worth).  Now that the holiday is over, those numbers have been adjusted thru week 11(albeit only 1st revision).

The texans pressure rate is 39.3%(32nd) and Watson is T-16th in sacks avoided. EDIT: FYI for comparison sake; the leaders in that department are:

Player	Team	Broken Tackles	BT on Runs	Avoid Sack ▴
Joe Flacco	BAL	17	0	17
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	16	1	15
Case Keenum	DEN	15	1	14
Patrick Mahomes	KC	13	0	13
Dak Prescott	DAL	10	0	10
Cam Newton	CAR	12	3	9

I have been watching Texans games, in fact for only this argument lol and yes, you're right, Watson is rolling out to evade pressure and whatnot (so is Trubisky) but I am still seeing those same things that I also see WITH Trubisky where both are holding the ball too long while trying to run with it or look for a target downfield and end up losing a yard or two by running out bounds or whatever, instead of conceding to the pressure and just throwing it away.

[Superman(DH23)]

9 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I don't know what media you're referring to I've never seen this outlined online or on TV. This is what I see. I see it in the tape.

Yeah you're full of it, it's a parrot of Mike Lombardi's criticism, and he claimed to watch tape too, while the things that he said had already been proven wrong.  Unless you ARE Michael Lombadi, which would explain a lot.

What's really funny is the guys who breakdown tape seem to love Tru, while the guys who say they watch tape all keep mentioning things that haven't been true for weeks.

[SmittyBacall]

On 11/25/2018 at 6:33 AM, Superman(DH23) said:

Yeah you're full of it, it's a parrot of Mike Lombardi's criticism, and he claimed to watch tape too, while the things that he said had already been proven wrong.  Unless you ARE Michael Lombadi, which would explain a lot.

What's really funny is the guys who breakdown tape seem to love Tru, while the guys who say they watch tape all keep mentioning things that haven't been true for weeks.

I didn't even know Lombardi did journalism. Whatever helps you sleep at night, big guy.