1[12]: Rashan Gary [EDGE; Michigan]

[cannondale]

4 hours ago, Billy86 said:

This is true, though can often be the case with guys in the front seven. A lot of people like to forget it, but the exact same was said of Kenny Clark (admittedly a later 1st rounder) after his rookie year where he essentially did nothing. I wouldn't even take Jaire over Kenny these days, and I'm a massive jaire Alexander fanboy. 

Now I'll fully fess up that by the end of last year I was becoming very sceptical of this pick, and by the start of this year I was flat out down on it (esp since work rate was seen as one of his potential red flags, which thankfully couldn't be further from the case). But the improvement he has made during this season has been phenomenal, and if he can get back to and play like he was mid season on a consistent basis, holy good god he's got a monstrous career ahead of him. He's still been doing well since, but we've seen a snapshot of what he really can be, and it's something scary. 

There is also a lot of talk of sacks, hits and pressures, and for good reason, but since he took off I've found my eyes drifting just above the QB (on camera) to the left side of the field, and there have been lots of times when he's not got any of those three or in a particularly close proximity tgo the QB but is all the same driving a LT and TE (sometimes two linemen) 5-8yds behind the LOS and completely disrupting their protection, which is absolutely chaotic for the opposition's game planning and gives clean lanes for others - reminds me of Z (who while a 4th rounder, did very little for his first three full years) quite a bit in this regard, in terms of what Pat McAfee would call a "game wrecker". 

A noticeable difference there in more recent weeks though, has been a gaping hole in that gap on our end, giving a clean running/scrambling lane where our defense previously had someone ready to blitz in that spot, shut down an attempt to run in a heartbeat, or try to make a play on a dump off pass or screen. 

Sure it's great to maximize production on those cheap rookie deal years, but if he keeps developing in years 4-6 like he has in year 3, he'll prove more than worth the 12th overall pick. 

Then pick someone else and sign Gary as a FA after another team goes through the growing pains. The fact is, he was a project at pick 12 - not pick 30. That's a big deal. Not to mention Gute had already paid Smithx2 tons of money at the same position. It was another "lets win a Super Bowl 5 years from now" pick.

[Old Guy]

7 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Then pick someone else and sign Gary as a FA after another team goes through the growing pains. The fact is, he was a project at pick 12 - not pick 30. That's a big deal. Not to mention Gute had already paid Smithx2 tons of money at the same position. It was another "lets win a Super Bowl 5 years from now" pick.

Go back to the draft that year and re-draft the first round and get back to me whether Gary was worthy or the 12th pick or not. My God man, there were 3 busts in front of us at 12 and 1 player after us who you'd say is better and that was Simmons who was coming off a major injury. 

Gute took the best player available, and it turned out that way too. Has this year not taught us a lesson that you need as many good EDGE rushers as you can possibly get.

[Billy86]

7 hours ago, cannondale said:

Then pick someone else and sign Gary as a FA after another team goes through the growing pains. The fact is, he was a project at pick 12 - not pick 30. That's a big deal. Not to mention Gute had already paid Smithx2 tons of money at the same position. It was another "lets win a Super Bowl 5 years from now" pick.

You typically don't just pick these guys up in FA without paying insane money or taking a risk like we did with Z (who was far from a certainty to play as he has when we signed him, and Gute drew plenty of criticism for it). 

And that's before factoring in the additional risk of a new coach, team, systems, city/state/climate, and ignores the fact we've had him playing quality football on the 3rd year of his rookie deal and likely will ha e him playing even better for the fourth year of it next season. 

It's also worth noting that by your logic, we should Rodgers or Davante. 

[vegas492]

Saying that Gary is a middle of the road #1 EDGE rusher is an enormous compliment to him.  It is not a slight.

The scary thing is that he is still improving.

I was 100% against the pick.  And I was wrong. 

It is okay to remember that Gary was nothing in the first year.  Okay in the second year and now good in the third year.

He keeps getting better and he's already a threat on the EDGE.

Kid is doing everything right.  Let's just be happy he isn't Jamal Reynolds.

[FAH1223]

He's been tremendous this season. I worry though that he is getting worn out. Getting the BYE would be huge for him and his elbow.

I wish Za'Darius could play. The depth is so badly needed. 

[MrBobGray]

On 12/24/2021 at 11:42 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

I called him a middle of the road #1. That means he's somewhere in the 12 to 18 range. That's not damning anybody with faint praise, that's a pretty good player. 

It's not the numbers, it's the context of the comment and the implications that felt like that to me.

Quote

Don't disagree he's playing well, but he's tied for 32nd in the league in sacks. He's a middle of the road #1 edge rusher

Everything in this sentence is from the negative position.  "Don't disagree, but" always feels like someone who does disagree but doesn't want to stand on it so they're hedging.  The metric used is sacks, which we know is not a good metric of play, because it's highly variable.  It'd be like me saying "Jalen Ramsey's playing pretty well, but he's 17th in the league in INTs.  He's somewhere in the top ten for CB1."  Like the words there are either facts or positive statements, but that would be a weird way to discuss him, and it ignores the metrics he's at the top in to put him lower than you'd think he would be based on those.  He's T-9th in pressures, T-8th in QB hurries, and he's the only player anywhere near the the top of the pressure lists with no missed tackles. If Gary is clearly in the top 10 in pressure metrics, how are there eleven to seventeen edge playing better than him?  And if he's playing like a top edge guy, why can't that just be the topic of discussion? 

 

[Shanedorf]

On 4/26/2019 at 7:30 AM, Packerraymond said:

Overall: I didn't see hustle issues at all with Gary, his motor ran consistently, he plays hard and he cares. I think there is a driven narrative among your stud athletes like Metcalf or Gary that "they're so athletic but their stats weren't great, lazy, character red flag, high bust chance." I've fought you guys all offseason on both Gary and Metcalf as I don't see those traits in either. Gary is clearly schemed for when an offense goes up against him. Double teams and chips from TE/RB's going into shallow routes are a common occurrence for him on passing downs. The athletic ability plays, the power plays and there is effort. Worst case, we don't get a counter move out of him and he becomes a bull rushing/edge setter. Best case you get him to run the arc and develop an inside spin to go with the bull rush and he's a straight up terror.

Ceiling: Cam Jordan: 10+ sack mainstay who sits at 280 pounds, not quite as heavy as the interior guys but much bigger than most EDGE guys. Uses his size, strength and power to beat OTs and has speed and explosion to blow by IOL. Array of pass rush moves and a nightmare for OL.

Floor: Nick Perry: Bull rush only type outside rusher who is great at setting an edge in the run game. Will never be a truly dominant rusher because he lacks an elite counter, but like Perry did, can stack some successes into a 10+ sack season or two. Still useful as a player but always leaves you wanting more due to untapped potential.

 

This excellent post above is from PackerRaymond back in April of 2019;  I grabbed the summary snippet here, but linked the rest for anybody interested. I'd say Gary is somewhere in between these two comps at this stage of development, but closer to Jordan than to Perry in terms of his play/ceiling

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/18603-112-rashan-gary-edge-michigan/page/18/

 

And here's coach Smith from a few weeks back talking about Rashan's ongoing development.
Starts at the 5:15 mark and its worth your time in terms of what Gary's working on and his ceiling from Mike Smith's POV.

https://www.packers.com/video/smith-rashan-gary-shows-progress-every-day

 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

52 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

It's not the numbers, it's the context of the comment and the implications that felt like that to me.

Everything in this sentence is from the negative position.  "Don't disagree, but" always feels like someone who does disagree but doesn't want to stand on it so they're hedging.  The metric used is sacks, which we know is not a good metric of play, because it's highly variable.  It'd be like me saying "Jalen Ramsey's playing pretty well, but he's 17th in the league in INTs.  He's somewhere in the top ten for CB1."  Like the words there are either facts or positive statements, but that would be a weird way to discuss him, and it ignores the metrics he's at the top in to put him lower than you'd think he would be based on those.  He's T-9th in pressures, T-8th in QB hurries, and he's the only player anywhere near the the top of the pressure lists with no missed tackles. If Gary is clearly in the top 10 in pressure metrics, how are there eleven to seventeen edge playing better than him?  And if he's playing like a top edge guy, why can't that just be the topic of discussion? 

 

When other people talk about him like he's top 5, which he's not, you cite evidence to support that he's not Top 5. 

Pressures generally lead to incompletions. Sacks lead to punts. They're two important impact metrics that are only partially linked. A guy who's elite in sacks and middling in pressure isn't an elite player either. 

Gary needs to get way better at getting guys off of him. He's getting pressure but not sacks because he's struggling to win cleanly.

[Mr Bad Example]

12 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

 

This excellent post above is from PackerRaymond back in April of 2019;  I grabbed the summary snippet here, but linked the rest for anybody interested. I'd say Gary is somewhere in between these two comps at this stage of development, but closer to Jordan than to Perry in terms of his play/ceiling

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/18603-112-rashan-gary-edge-michigan/page/18/

 

PR's take on Nick Perry is exactly the player I envisioned....not a bust but somewhat of a disappointment. 

[Packerraymond]

14 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

 

This excellent post above is from PackerRaymond back in April of 2019;  I grabbed the summary snippet here, but linked the rest for anybody interested. I'd say Gary is somewhere in between these two comps at this stage of development, but closer to Jordan than to Perry in terms of his play/ceiling

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/18603-112-rashan-gary-edge-michigan/page/18/

 

And here's coach Smith from a few weeks back talking about Rashan's ongoing development.
Starts at the 5:15 mark and its worth your time in terms of what Gary's working on and his ceiling from Mike Smith's POV.

https://www.packers.com/video/smith-rashan-gary-shows-progress-every-day

 

 

Scary thing is that he still doesn't have a great counter, he's just so damn good at converting speed to power. The big difference in Gary now, versus his rookie year, is that he's significantly reduced the number of "blow by's." If his initial speed rush didn't work as a rookie, he'd just keep going and got moved outside the pocket, now he'll stop and get in the hand fight and try to shed. He still gets blown by too much to be considered elite IMO, but there's been multiple occasions where he's gotten a sack by just stopping his speed rush, getting his bearings, and shedding the OT.

I think this off-season will be critical for him mastering the nuances and trying to go from very good to elite. He's still good enough as is that you have to pay him. Pass rushers like him don't grow on trees.

[Shanedorf]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I think this off-season will be critical for him mastering the nuances and trying to go from very good to elite.

I wish he would have gotten more time with Z  this season in terms of pass rush nuances. Gary's an eager beaver in the film room and the more you can expose him to...the better. Dude wants it.

Here's a ranking from 2020, when he made the list of Top 10 Disruptors in the League per NextGenStats

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1400248365737299971?
 

Disruption rate: 15.1%

Sack rate: 1.9%

Total disruptions: 39

Sacks: 5

"Gary's inclusion on this list is intriguing because he didn't see the field nearly as often as most of the others featured here. Gary played 436 of Green Bay's 974 defensive snaps in 2020 -- the fewest snaps of any player on this list, by far -- and he just barely crossed the minimum threshold for pass-rushing snaps with 259. Still, though, Gary was very effective, logging a disruption rate of over 15 percent. His sacks total was near that of a few others on this list , and he tied with Bud Dupree for the most hustle stops among any player on this list. Perhaps all Gary needs is more playing time. When he was on the field in 2020, the Next Gen Stats show he certainly made a difference."

[TheEagle]

On 12/27/2021 at 6:54 PM, AlexGreen#20 said:

When other people talk about him like he's top 5, which he's not, you cite evidence to support that he's not Top 5. 

Pressures generally lead to incompletions. Sacks lead to punts. They're two important impact metrics that are only partially linked. A guy who's elite in sacks and middling in pressure isn't an elite player either. 

Gary needs to get way better at getting guys off of him. He's getting pressure but not sacks because he's struggling to win cleanly.

Pressures can lead to interceptions. A lot of pressures can lead to a QB getting happy feet and causing more incompletions and interceptions.

[Refugee]

13 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

I wish he would have gotten more time with Z  this season in terms of pass rush nuances. Gary's an eager beaver in the film room and the more you can expose him to...the better. Dude wants it.

Here's a ranking from 2020, when he made the list of Top 10 Disruptors in the League per NextGenStats

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1400248365737299971?
 

Disruption rate: 15.1%

Sack rate: 1.9%

Total disruptions: 39

Sacks: 5

"Gary's inclusion on this list is intriguing because he didn't see the field nearly as often as most of the others featured here. Gary played 436 of Green Bay's 974 defensive snaps in 2020 -- the fewest snaps of any player on this list, by far -- and he just barely crossed the minimum threshold for pass-rushing snaps with 259. Still, though, Gary was very effective, logging a disruption rate of over 15 percent. His sacks total was near that of a few others on this list , and he tied with Bud Dupree for the most hustle stops among any player on this list. Perhaps all Gary needs is more playing time. When he was on the field in 2020, the Next Gen Stats show he certainly made a difference."

A healthy Z, or even Mercilus for that matter, would have made this a very formidable defense going into the stretch. We are trying to find fill ins right now and everyone is a big step down in that edge group. Garvin was my sleeper for most improved this year. He has not delivered although there have been small flashes with increased opportunity.

We need to get through these next few games, hope to get everyone healed up and then let RG go Bane on whatever team gets in our way in the postseason. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Refugee

[Shanedorf]

On 12/28/2021 at 11:11 PM, Refugee said:

or even Mercilus for that matter

He was playing pretty well with about 45 % of defensive snaps - and getting more comfortable each week.
bummer to lose him

[Refugee]

23 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

He was playing pretty well with about 45 % of defensive snaps - and getting more comfortable each week.
bummer to lose him

Yeah, it was a good move by Gute as was bringing in, then cutting, Smith. Mercillus seemed like he was very assignment  sure and still had enough burst and savvy to be disruptive. Could use a guy like that going into January.