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2019 Draft Thoughts


Golfman

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Overall I think I have been pretty happy with the draft. A lot of you guys here are a lot more knowledgeable than me in matters relating to the football as well as the draft so my opinion probably counts for nothing but still .. :)

The thing I really like is that Gute has a plan regarding what direction he wants to go with the Packers. He is executing that plan by getting the players that best fit that system. I also have faith that the Packers scouts and management did their due diligence regarding any character and/or health issues with these guys. We won't know if the picks pan out for a few years or not but the direction with which Gute has gone will have a lot more talent on the Packers (if the picks work out) than just going the safe route and getting us warm bodies.

One of the bigger concerns for me are just injuries. We were really banged up last year and that is something that nobody can control. But a sem-healthy Packers defense this year should still be pretty good. The one player I am truly worried about is Kevin King. I know he is rather sensitive about his injury situation but we need for him to be healthy to be good at that position.

Also, as far as the receivers for Rodgers go, I think they will primarily focus on using Jace in that capacity this year while continue to refine his blocking abilities. Would have been nice to have some more options but lets hope  that MVS and ESB continue getting better. Hopefully MLF's offense can get more out of Graham in the end zone too.

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My thoughts...

Green Bay placed a premium on players on excelled in multiple ways. Darnell Savage allowed a passer rating of 36 when targeted this past season, he had four interceptions, and had 25 defensive stops in the run game (defined as gaining 40% of required yardage on first down, 60% on second down and the entire required yardage on third or fourth). Watch his Ohio State tape as a microcosm of this versatility. He played a lot over the slot in college, which means Maryland used him to defend against field-stretching concepts, as a cornerback in man coverage, and occasionally dropping back as a free safety.

Elgton Jenkins excelled in both the run game and passing game while playing 2700 snaps in college at the tackle, guard, and primarily center positions. If Linsley goes down he could start there. If Bulaga goes down he could get us out of a game. He provides a ton of flexibility and most importantly: competition across multiple spots on the offensive line. The obvious decision Green Bay made was between this guy and Erik McCoy. The obvious difference, then, is that Jenkins started at four different positions in college, while 95% of McCoy's starts came at center.

We spent the 12th pick on an extremely versatile player, athletically and with his skillset. Rashan Gary has the body of a 4-3 end with the athleticism of an off the ball linebacker. What really opened my eyes to Gary when watching him play is his awareness. At Michigan he had one job - go against the strong side of the offense and disrupt. When you watch him his eyes are always on the ball, though. If they're running away from him he's working his way through the trash to get over there. If they're running at him he's taking on the double team with the tight end and tackle. If they're throwing it he's using what few moves they taught him to beat the guy across from him or stunting with another rusher. He never looks lost, but he's always reacting. I don't believe Michigan really taught him any nuances beyond how to take on blocks and play a particular defensive call. They never really schemed things open for him. They knew with Gary they had a guy who could take away the strong side and were content to let him do that while others flowed through the holes he opened up. If all we see from Gary is a guy who can takes on the strong side every play and disrupt, then we'll be happy. I want to see him learn more moves, though. I want to see less reaction and more dictation. I want 10-15 plays a game where we get Gary lined up 1 on 1 and tell him to go.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

There's a stark difference between everything between being rainbows and gumdrops and being intentionally pessimistic.  There's happy medium between the two.  And nobody willingly watches Maryland football.

just becasue you'd never watched anythign but a highlight video of Savage doesn't mean the Terps go completely unwatched.  Of course I don't go out to watch them but I try watching MSU, OSU, Iowa, Wisky and PSU games when ever they don't interfere with the Michigan games and the Terps are on the schedule.  I went back and watched the Michigan game for S&G to see if I missed anything.  It was their best passing game of the year.  While Savage had a tipped ball land in his arms he struggled terribly. He was beat in coverage mutiple times, showed terrible tackling ability and caused a TD by taking out a fellow defender going for an INT.

 

The idea that he was the best DB in college football last year but because fans didn't watch the Terps, no one knew is crazy.  Had Chauncey Gardner- Johnson, Thornhill, Rapp or Adderley ran that 40, they'd all have been drafted before Savage.  He rose because of his 40 time not because he was a differance maker on the field.  Fnas are makign him out to be a better prospect than Derwin James now because he's a Packer.  IMO, it's exactly the same thing most would have said regardless of the safety that was drafted.  

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1 hour ago, fistfullofbeer said:

The one player I am truly worried about is Kevin King. 

You could argue the overall success of our defense depends on King's availability. Post-draft this defense is stacked up front, good enough at ILB, and restocked at safety. If King can play we have the CBs to make this a top 10 unit. However if King plays half the year or less and Jackson doesn't take a tremendous 2nd year jump, we'll be pointing to CB as the weakness of the defense once again. 

Edited by packfanfb
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I mean, in the scouting business "what you did already" doesn't really matter so much as "projectable traits" (though the two are correlated).  I don't trust most amateur analysis of safety play since tv angles make it so hard to see any safety who isn't playing primarily in the box.  Which has a lot to do with how most people who did not travel to College Park and get the All-22 tapes tend to overrate guys like Rapp and Abram- since you can see them in the tv angles.

Flash back to 2010 and there was a rangy and undersized Longhorn safety that went much higher than anyone in draft media had him going, but it nonetheless worked out pretty well for Seattle

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29 minutes ago, SSG said:

The idea that he was the best DB in college football last year but because fans didn't watch the Terps, no one knew is crazy.  Had Chauncey Gardner- Johnson, Thornhill, Rapp or Adderley ran that 40, they'd all have been drafted before Savage.  He rose because of his 40 time not because he was a differance maker on the field.  Fnas are makign him out to be a better prospect than Derwin James now because he's a Packer.  IMO, it's exactly the same thing most would have said regardless of the safety that was drafted. 

How did GB scouts know about his combine 40 time 2 years ago?

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5 minutes ago, gopackgo247 said:

but if they know whats going to happen, it wont happen.

In this scenario, the Packers would be strange and the prospect would be Stark. You couldnt tell the prospects they were gonna be great or they would assume its destiny and wouldnt try. But the Packers would be able to know which prospects would hit.

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1 hour ago, deathstar said:

We spent the 12th pick on an extremely versatile player, athletically and with his skillset. Rashan Gary has the body of a 4-3 end with the athleticism of an off the ball linebacker. What really opened my eyes to Gary when watching him play is his awareness. At Michigan he had one job - go against the strong side of the offense and disrupt. When you watch him his eyes are always on the ball, though. If they're running away from him he's working his way through the trash to get over there. If they're running at him he's taking on the double team with the tight end and tackle. If they're throwing it he's using what few moves they taught him to beat the guy across from him or stunting with another rusher. He never looks lost, but he's always reacting. I don't believe Michigan really taught him any nuances beyond how to take on blocks and play a particular defensive call. They never really schemed things open for him. They knew with Gary they had a guy who could take away the strong side and were content to let him do that while others flowed through the holes he opened up. If all we see from Gary is a guy who can takes on the strong side every play and disrupt, then we'll be happy. I want to see him learn more moves, though. I want to see less reaction and more dictation. I want 10-15 plays a game where we get Gary lined up 1 on 1 and tell him to go.

You could easily make that argument for Winovich...

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52 minutes ago, SSG said:

just becasue you'd never watched anythign but a highlight video of Savage doesn't mean the Terps go completely unwatched.  Of course I don't go out to watch them but I try watching MSU, OSU, Iowa, Wisky and PSU games when ever they don't interfere with the Michigan games and the Terps are on the schedule.  I went back and watched the Michigan game for S&G to see if I missed anything.  It was their best passing game of the year.  While Savage had a tipped ball land in his arms he struggled terribly. He was beat in coverage mutiple times, showed terrible tackling ability and caused a TD by taking out a fellow defender going for an INT.

 

The idea that he was the best DB in college football last year but because fans didn't watch the Terps, no one knew is crazy.  Had Chauncey Gardner- Johnson, Thornhill, Rapp or Adderley ran that 40, they'd all have been drafted before Savage.  He rose because of his 40 time not because he was a differance maker on the field.  Fnas are makign him out to be a better prospect than Derwin James now because he's a Packer.  IMO, it's exactly the same thing most would have said regardless of the safety that was drafted.  

So, because you feel he played badly in one game from the TV copy means he's in fact a bad safety?  Everyone has up and down days, and I don't actually see a breakdown of his play, just "he was bad".  Are you really asserting that none of CGJ, Thornhill, Rapp or Adderly had bad games?  

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I get why people are bagging on the Gary pick in the media, but I feel like it's way overblown from the actual situation.

Every draft pick has issues.  Maybe every once in a very blue moon you get the elite prospect with almost no real flaws, but even when they come out they're going top 3 and the Packers will never have a shot at them as long as they have Rodgers.  So by default, you're picking a guy with holes in his game.  The only thing you really get to decide is what kind of flaws you can accept.

Gary's biggest flaw by far is a lack of continued development.  He's just not a better player as a Junior than he was a Sophomore, and that's a little concerning.  His hand usage is borderline non-existent as a rusher, he has no rush plan, no real inside counter, he's basically just a big, fast ball of muscle that's hard to block because he's a freak.  That's all stuff that can be taught.  It's not as easy to teach as people think, but you can build a lot of that stuff up with reps and time.  Gary's role at Michigan was such that he never really knew what he was doing on any given play.  He had to worry about setting the edge on the strong side and dealing with constant misdirection and zone read plays before he could even think about rushing the passer.  This year he shouldn't be more than a rotational guy, which means he can focus on just improving his game rep to rep and not worry about being the linchpin for the entire scheme.  That's a much better situation for a guy who needs to develop his game.

Does that mean he'll do it?  I don't know.  Nobody knows.  This isn't Madden, there's a lot that goes into the human element even before you get into whether or not Gary will show real aptitude for it.  But if you're picking 12th overall, you could take a lot bigger risk than picking the hyper-athletic freak with the work ethic to be a two time Academic All Big Ten despite football and dyslexia whose biggest flaw is needing skill refinement.

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I mean, the funny thing is the Packers two first round picks had opposite trajectories in the media.  At any point between the senior bowl and the week after the combine most people in the draft media had Gary as a top 10 pick and Savage as a 2nd/3rd round pick.  No actual information comes out about guys after this period, and neither had an incident that would have pushed them down.  Week before the draft people in the media (who have incomplete information) were saying Savage was going in the 1 but Gary might slip into the 2nd.

So I'm pretty sure that what happened is in April the spotlight switches from the evaluators to the forecasters.  A lot of the evaluators were sleeping on Savage since safety is probably the hardest position to evaluate without NFL team resources, and while the forecasters likely heard from some teams that didn't like Gary much, they weren't hearing from all the teams and everybody in the top end of the draft probably had someone who didn't like him (lot of anonymous scouts thought Jonah Williams was mediocre.)

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