minutemancl Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Giants aren't trading down. IF there's a QB the Patriots or Bears want, why wouldn't they strike a deal with a team earlier? It's a little "too convenient" for the Giants to be the spot where those teams try and trade up. Maybe the price is too high inside the top-10? Maybe some of those teams aren't willing to trade down? I'm not saying 11 is the sweet spot or anything, just that it is in that range of a sweet spot for a QB trade up. It sounds like the Falcons want too much for 4 and the Bengals are comfortable staying at 5. I'd put the sweet spot at 6-11 for the 4 and 5 QBs, assuming Atlanta doesn't take one themselves at 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, minutemancl said: Maybe the price is too high inside the top-10? Maybe some of those teams aren't willing to trade down? I'm not saying 11 is the sweet spot or anything, just that it is in that range of a sweet spot for a QB trade up. It sounds like the Falcons want too much for 4 and the Bengals are comfortable staying at 5. I'd put the sweet spot at 6-11 for the 4 and 5 QBs, assuming Atlanta doesn't take one themselves at 4. Because the value between say 10 and 11 isn't all that drastic. You have to imagine that 7 and 8 are both available for a team willing to trade up besides Atlanta inside the top 8. Denver is probably in the QB market at 9, but could move either way but I'd venture a guess to say they're sitting at 9 and make a small move up if a QB falls. Dallas at 10 doesn't have an obvious pick here unless they're moving up for Pitts. IF you're WFT/NE/CHI, why wouldn't the deal be struck with Detroit, Carolina, or Dallas? IF your GM has a history of not trading down in the first round, it's probably because they've been asking for too much. Not out of principle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 I did some simple statistical analysis to see how this year's draft class compares to previous years using ESPN draft grades. Good year to need a ILB, CB, WR Bad year to need a RB, DT, OLB 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Nice post @Gmen. Specifically, what are the two classes ahead of this QB one? I figured DT would be the worst (obviously not far from it), but shocked OLB is last. Kinda shocked how low S is too. No elite guys, but plenty of Day 2 guys. Pitts must be carrying TEs a little Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Nice post @Gmen. Specifically, what are the two classes ahead of this QB one? I figured DT would be the worst (obviously not far from it), but shocked OLB is last. Kinda shocked how low S is too. No elite guys, but plenty of Day 2 guys. Pitts must be carrying TEs a little Thanks! I read that the DT class was bad, so that's what actually inspired this. The two classes above this QB class are 2018 and 2011. Both classes had 4 QBs drafted in the top 12. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Nice post @Gmen. Specifically, what are the two classes ahead of this QB one? I figured DT would be the worst (obviously not far from it), but shocked OLB is last. Kinda shocked how low S is too. No elite guys, but plenty of Day 2 guys. Pitts must be carrying TEs a little The better question is what is separating ILB from OLB? It's an average off-ball LB class. No real elite prospects, but some high quality starters (JOK, Parsons, and Collins). Some starters that are probably more scheme dependent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49ersfan Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, minutemancl said: Gettleman has never traded back, but there is a better than normal chance that he does it this year in the first, and I think it would be with either the Patriots or Bears if one of those QBs are there at 11. On a similar note, I've heard from some that the draft starts at 4, because we don't know which direction the Falcons want to go. I disagree and think the draft starts at 3 with exactly which QB the Niners take. If they do actually take Mac Jones, which I still doubt, I think we see 5 QBs in the top-10. These teams all have these QBs ranked differently, but we know there are at least a few that have Fields as their #2. If a team like the Panthers, Broncos, or Patriots has Fields as their #2 QB in the draft and he is available at pick 4 after 3 other QBs have gone, I'd have to imagine there is a mad dash and fight to get him. Meanwhile, if the Niners do take Fields at 3, I think there are wildly different opinions on Jones and Lance, and we could see one or both of those guys slip a bit, causing more position players to go in the top-10. The 29th can't get here soon enough. You don't really hear anything about Fields at all with the Niners. National media using sources say Jones, local media doing the analysis say Lance. I think there was on Allbright tweet that he heard a lot of buzz about Fields to the Niners after his 2nd pro day & a Silver video where he said there was a faction of people who think it could be Fields. But neither of them really followed up on that. Other than that tweet, Allbright has been pretty consistent that he thinks its Lance The Fields to the Niners talk is fuelled by the lower level bloggers who dont have sources & are approaching it from more of a fan perspective. So it doesn't look like its Fields, but it could also be a heck of a smokescreen. Logically speaking, i think its Lance, but the overwhelming media consensus is that its Jones. But then, the same media members say the Niners haven't made a final decision.... Edited April 22, 2021 by 49ersfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 I got tired of posting tweets of people taking calls to move down 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingOfNewYork Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, Forge said: I got tired of posting tweets of people taking calls to move down 😂 Paton just gonna lie like that in public and on record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: I know lots of people do not like him, but I think he has a skill set you can work with and a ton of experience with less talent in a hard conference. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 If you have an Athletic subscription (I'd recommend it; it is only $1 a month right now I think), this is a fantastic read: https://theathletic.com/2532416/2021/04/21/nfl-draft-confidential-zach-wilson-to-the-jets-in-that-market-with-that-play-style-woof/ Scouts and coaches on how they feel about certain players in the draft. It really seems like there are a number of guys who don't like Sewell at T, which is crazy to me. Also, get on that Jaycee Horn first CB taken bet while you can. I really think he is gone before Surtain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, minutemancl said: Also, get on that Jaycee Horn first CB taken bet while you can. I really think he is gone before Surtain. I find this really interesting because the most likely team to take him would be Dallas, and I would assume that Dallas is moving to more of the blah cover 3 zone and I don't love that for Horn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Also, after a quick detour, I'm back on the "there's no way in hell the pick is Mac at 3" . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Forge said: I find this really interesting because the most likely team to take him would be Dallas, and I would assume that Dallas is moving to more of the blah cover 3 zone and I don't love that for Horn. I think teams love his competitiveness and physical skills and whoever is looking to take the first CB, whether that is Dallas or someone else, will take him. NFL teams have shown that they have no problem taking a corner that doesn't fit their defensive scheme and just slotting them in anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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