mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) @TLO In the interest of informing the public, the MoL will be posting daily updates of the MoL scores for various countries MoL scores are proprietary measures of COVID spread 3/30/2020 MoL Scores: Italy: 9.5 USA: 28.6 (this is what Italy was at 14-15 days ago) Generally speaking, there are two things you have to look at with the MoL 1. Absolute level -> Anything below 10 is a reasonably good sign, between 25-50 is the danger zone but better to be heading down than up, above 50 represents out of control growth / early stage of an outbreak 2. Is it rising or falling -> Rising bad, falling good. USA hovered between 50-80 for about 3 weeks but has steadily declined for the past 5 days. We will be looking at adding Spain, France, Germany, Australia, and Canada in the coming days. Please let us know if there are others countries you would like to see. We may be posting a historical chart of the MoLs by country at some point in the near future as well, but too lazy to do it right now. Edited March 31, 2020 by mission27 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 A note of caution: MoL scores can be fairly unreliable for the first 7-14 days of an outbreak, so we will avoid posting these scores for any country that is in the first couple of weeks of their outbreak Eventually we may look into doing MoLs on a state by state basis, but unfortunately that data is harder to come by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 3/30/2020 MoL Scores: Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures China: 1.2 South Korea: 2.0 Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1 Switzerland: 9.3 (maybe the most successful country in Europe at getting a handle on the outbreak over the past 1-2 weeks, appears to be in the middle of a downtrend in new cases dating back 10 days and should have things under control by mid-April) Italy: 9.5 (the data for the last 1-1.5 weeks is very promising) Australia: 14.0 (while Australia's MoL is technically in the danger zone, the MoL believes their case growth is under control and that this number will be below 10 in the near future) @Shady Slim Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases Austria: 14.5 Spain: 14.8 Brazil: 16.7 (we expect this to continue to fall over the coming days, Brazil like Australia has exhibited more linear rather than exponential case growth suggesting many cases are imported) Germany: 17.6 Netherlands: 17.6 Hong Kong: 17.8 (the MoL believes this is driven by a new wave of imported infections and there's a good chance it will begin to trend down) Iran: 18.9 (had stabilized but now headed in the wrong direction, MoL has jumped considerably over the past few days) France: 19.3 India: 19.7 (one to watch over the coming days, the MoL expects there may be a temporary jump due to growth in testing but does not yet see serious outbreak developing, especially given governments aggressive actions early on) Israel: 20.2 (similar to Hong Kong BUT the data is a bit more concerning here, need to watch) Portugal: 23.3 Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down) Canada: 25.3 (given lower cases per capita than the last two countries on our list, Canada is in less trouble) UK: 28.2 USA: 28.6 Belgium: 33.1 Turkey: 69.0 Canada, the UK, and US are about where Italy was 14-15 days ago. Spain and France and Germany are less than a week behind. Edited April 1, 2020 by mission27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, candyman93 said: Genuinely curious, if this virus was like the one in Contagion (killed 26 million people in 1 month, 30% fatality rate, and was extremely contagious) would people be as antsy to resume life as they currently are? I think people would still be partying. Honestly no. For those that still have not taken it seriously and resume life, nothing will help until they get a dose of it. Beyond this, the extra measures are probably already being taken by those took it seriously days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/fauci-anticipates-another-us-coronavirus-outbreak-in-the-fall/ #seasonality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLO Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 hours ago, BayRaider said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Death Rate still going up by the day in Closed Cases. 19% now. Been going up 1% every 48 hours consistently. You can read into that any way you want. 202,815 Closed Cases, 165,035 Recovered, and 37,780 Dead. America hardly has any Closed Cases yet. Too small of a sample size. However: 8,654 Closed Cases. 5,506 Recovered. 3,148 dead. 36% Death Rate in Closed Cases. Once again, can read into this any way you want. This post is comical af 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I just still don’t know how anyone can believe China’s “official” numbers on anything. Like I’d literally believe they’ve got zombies over there and they’d tell people there’s a new species of big that creates human-sized bites that are perfectly healthy. nakedgunnothingtoseehere.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I’m no expert on the numbers, charts, etc but why do we keep comparing ourselves to Italy? Their housing, the way they communicate, and average age are all significantly different than us. Seems like apples to oranges to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, ET80 said: https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/03/29/houston-methodist-first-in-nation-to-be-approved-by-fda-to-transfuse-donated-plasma-from-recovered-covid-19-patient/ This sounds promising. they are organizing via hospitals/ blood centers across the USA and around the world https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/03/30/coronavirus-plasma-treatment-trials-uw-madison-wisconsin/5087276002/ "What began two weeks ago with a pair of scientists urging the use of plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients to rescue the sick has blown up into a national movement. Today more than 100 researchers and 40 large hospitals in 20 states are involved in the effort to bring survivor plasma to clinical trials, according to project leaders. The University of Wisconsin-Madison this weekend joined the National COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Project, which has a website and intends to launch clinical trials as soon as it receives approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The group is also collaborating with the American Red Cross, blood banks, Amazon and Federal Express. The early results would not come from clinical trials but from the emergency compassionate use of survivor plasma in hospitals, a measure the FDA approved a week ago. Methodist Hospital in Houston has already started using the plasma for some of its COVID-19 patients" ^ this above is good news...and this below is the challenge : "Collecting plasma from recovered patients on a national scale will present a major challenge. Of the nation's 160,000 COVID-19 patients, only 5,600 have recovered. To be considered recovered from the virus, patients have to be symptom free for at least 14 days." (still gotta flatten the curve) The good news is its likely that one recovered patient could provide enough plasma to treat more than one sick person. But who decides if we should give a double dose to a really sick patient, or spread the 2 doses over 2 patients ? Should we dose hospital workers as a preventative or should we only dose those on ventilators to free up the machines sooner ? Scarcity is not something Americans are used to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 hours ago, Outpost31 said: I just still don’t know how anyone can believe China’s “official” numbers on anything. Like I’d literally believe they’ve got zombies over there and they’d tell people there’s a new species of big that creates human-sized bites that are perfectly healthy. nakedgunnothingtoseehere.gif Yep. 1) They have 21 million less cell activated phone users than they did a few months ago, in a country where citizens are REQUIRED to own activated cells for government tracking. 2) They bought or built 8 HUGE animal incinerators and ordered hundreds of thousands of urns. 3) They lied about the outbreak from the beginning when the severity of the outbreak couldve been prevented or at least limited. 4) . They are a communist dictatorship that controls every aspect of the information that goes out. No one should believe anything they are saying. I still believe they released the damn thing on purpose. Sucks that most of our media and big tech companies are pretty much owned by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Who do you want to see direct the inevitable movie for all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, FourThreeMafia said: Yep. 1) They have 21 million less cell activated phone users than they did a few months ago, in a country where citizens are REQUIRED to own activated cells for government tracking. 2) They bought or built 8 HUGE animal incinerators and ordered hundreds of thousands of urns. 3) They lied about the outbreak from the beginning when the severity of the outbreak couldve been prevented or at least limited. 4) . They are a communist dictatorship that controls every aspect of the information that goes out. No one should believe anything they are saying. I still believe they released the damn thing on purpose. Sucks that most of our media and big tech companies are pretty much owned by them. Pretty eye opening post. They also bought 30% of major American companies when they hit all-time lows during this crisis. I still don’t think it was intentional but I can certainly be convinced otherwise still. I’m like 70/30. Edited March 31, 2020 by BayRaider 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, big_palooka said: Who do you want to see direct the inevitable movie for all of this? Michael Bay, starring Mark Wahlberg. Those who are infected will see their appendixes turn into small bombs, devastating hospitals around the world. Wahlberg saves us all from total annihilation by figuring out the the Chinese developed the bomb virus, and steals the "antidote" by means of secretly infiltrating their evil base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 My brother wants me to watch Contagion because of this. Like a Top 10 movie of his. Any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, FourThreeMafia said: Yep. 1) They have 21 million less cell activated phone users than they did a few months ago, in a country where citizens are REQUIRED to own activated cells for government tracking. 2) They bought or built 8 HUGE animal incinerators and ordered hundreds of thousands of urns. 3) They lied about the outbreak from the beginning when the severity of the outbreak couldve been prevented or at least limited. 4) . They are a communist dictatorship that controls every aspect of the information that goes out. No one should believe anything they are saying. I still believe they released the damn thing on purpose. Sucks that most of our media and big tech companies are pretty much owned by them. If China released the darn thing on purpose...why uh...exactly would they have gone to the effort of allegedly killing so many of their own people, and preparing for it and preparing ways to "burn the evidence"? There's some deep logical incongruity to this notion, so far as i can tell. Also...it's offensive to communism to refer to current China as anything resembling such. I think maybe i've actually lost my ability to tell when people are being sarcastic on the internet or not. But so far, the people profiting most from this whole mess...appear to be American Billionaires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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