Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

31 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

That, or, here's a thought:

We've reached herd immunity/this isn't as serious as it was billed to be, as testing now shows positive cases in the U.S. dating back to early December of 2019.

I can assure you that in Dayton and Columbus, a good many of the tens of thousands involved in the protests are NOT wearing masks and are not practicing social distancing.

Source:

Every livestream available

We haven't reached herd immunity.  Antibody tests show 4-5% of the population has antibodies.  

[mission27]

52 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

I only think the spike is inevitable b/c of people not social distancing, not wearing masks, exerting a lot of physical energy, while yelling and screaming in MASSIVE crowds. I'm not concerned w/ opening up b/c that can be controlled. I'm concerned w/ people rioting and protesting b/c that cannot be controlled. It's up to the individuals and we've seen their lack of ability to properly follow basic safety guidelines. That is where my concern lies.

Thankfully this is taking place outside and transmission outside is thought to be much more rare (because the virus particles dissipate more quickly).  But we'll see in a week or two.  If there is no surge in cases in New York, LA, Minnesota, etc. we can all relax.

[TVScout]

Free:

14 states and Puerto Rico hit highest seven-day average of new coronavirus infections

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/14-states-puerto-rico-hit-their-highest-seven-day-average-new-covid-19-infections-since-june/?utm_campaign=wp_for_you&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_personalizedforyou

https://www.washingtonpost.com/coronavirus/

Maybe free:

Five Ways to Monitor the Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html

Fauci Warns That the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Far From Over

The nation’s leading infectious disease expert tells biotech executives that Covid-19 has inflicted global damage, exposing worrisome racial disparities.

Quote

In a wide-ranging talk to biotech executives, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci delivered a grim assessment of the devastation wrought around the world by the coronavirus.

Covid-19 is the disease that Dr. Fauci always said would be his “worst nightmare” — a new, highly contagious respiratory infection that causes a significant amount of illness and death.

“In a period of four months, it has devastated the whole world,” Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Tuesday during a conference held by BIO, the Biotechnology Innovation Organization. “And it isn’t over yet.”

His discussion with a moderator was conducted remotely and recorded for presentation to conference participants. Although he had known that an outbreak like this could occur, one aspect has surprised him, he said, and that is “how rapidly it just took over the planet.”  

An efficiently transmitted disease can spread worldwide in six months or a year, but “this took about a month,” Dr. Fauci said. He attributed the rapid spread to the contagiousness of the virus, and to extensive world travel by infected people.

 

Vaccines are widely regarded as the best hope of stopping or at least slowing the pandemic, and Dr. Fauci said he was “almost certain” that more than one would be successful. Several are already being tested in people, and at least one is expected to move into large, Phase 3 trials in July.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/health/fauci-vaccines-coronavirus.html?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200609&instance_id=19244&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=30492&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

How the Coronavirus Compares With 100 Years of Deadly Events

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200610&instance_id=19258&nl=the-morning&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=30534&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

[WizeGuy]

21 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Thankfully this is taking place outside and transmission outside is thought to be much more rare (because the virus particles dissipate more quickly).  But we'll see in a week or two.  If there is no surge in cases in New York, LA, Minnesota, etc. we can all relax.

So far, so good here in Rochester. We should be entering phase 3 this Friday. Our nursing director did say we saw a slight uptick in ED cases, but our ICU numbers are still steady. If we're still good in a couple of weeks Im going to the bar with my dad and buddy. We'll be wearing a mask indoors of course, but we plan to have a few brews outdoors and socially distance. It'll be nice to have some resemblance of normal.

[mission27]

Arizona might be explained by retirees tbh

There are so many old people and no one is wearing masks. Not surprising we see an increase in hospitalizations when the stay at home ends. 

Arizona needs to do something now before they're forced into another lockdown. 

Florida likely has a similar situation but much more humid, ~1/3rd as many cases per capita each day, and much lower percent of tests coming back positive so I'm less concerned with them.

[SteelKing728]

A big pay bump would have been nice.

Oh well.

Edited June 10, 2020 by SteelKing728

[mission27]

Looking at the state testing data, a few takeaways:

- Most of the big metros continue to trend in the right direction especially in the northeast 

- Minnesota and DC metro are doing A LOT better than they were, for example positive rate is down to 4-5% in Minny compared to 10-15% for weeks

- Florida, California, and Texas are doing a little worse than late May, but still better than they were in early May, albeit on a much higher number of tests.  To me it feels like these places have mostly plateaued and increases in cases are mostly driven by testing and maybe a small rebound effect post Memorial day from less distancing.  Case numbers per capita remain pretty much in line with the national average.

- The data is weird in North Carolina and Oklahoma but I'd lean towards there is a real problem here 

- Arizona, Utah, and a couple other places are doing much worse across the board

[ramssuperbowl99]

The fact that we're talking about a few states with increased caseloads and not talking about needing to uniformly get back into hardcore lockdown is a good sign. Not that what's going on in Arizona and Texas and a few other states isn't a problem, it definitely is. But it's a much a better problem to have than I think a lot of us expected.

[theJ]

3 hours ago, mission27 said:

We haven't reached herd immunity.  Antibody tests show 4-5% of the population has antibodies.  

Not herd immunity, but herd resistance, i guess?  As the % of people that have the antibodies goes up, the transmission rate slows.  4-5% isn't a ton, but does start to slow this down.  

[swoosh]

@mission27 long time reader, first time poster (not really tbh). love the thread. 

my question for you today is how reliable are these covid antibody tests, specifically around false negatives?

I went to the dentist last week and this cute girl asked me if I wanted a covid antibody test and I said sure why the hell not, give it to me. she proceeded to take a small amount of blood from my left pinky. i mean, come on, surely my defense system is strong enough to not let covid get to my right thumb, let alone my left pinky of all places. 

they also had the audacity to charge me $50 for the test and decline my amex card, but that's not the point. 

first time in life you're really hoping for a positive test and you get shutdown. brutal feeling. 

 

[swoosh]

@mission27 hey buddy, haven't seen a response yet to the above. could you please provide an update. cheers

[Fl0nkerton]

must've forgot to mention the Must Reply in 60 Seconds caveat lol

[Shanedorf]

There are unfortunately a lot of poor quality antibody tests out there and part of that is because of the massive rush to make them available
shortcuts were taken, quality assurance requirements and validation steps were waived. Accuracy didn't meet specs
It sounds like the dentist views this as new revenue generation for his office. If the test is from Cellex, the reliability is better

https://cellexcovid.com/

for others, its really a crapshoot

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/uk-government-urged-to-abandon-poor-finger-prick-antibody-tests-coronavirus

The Oxford group has characterized six different antibody tests and found that most fall well short of the accuracy required. Most failed to detect antibodies half the time and the best spotted the immune cells only 70% of the time. If used at scale, the tests could leave millions of people who have immunity convinced they are still vulnerable to the infection. For the test to pass, the accuracy would have to be nearer 95%.

[fraziafraze07]

@mission27 Would it be possible/you willing to provide a bit of detail on the North Carolina data, and why it might be "weird?"  I'm only going off the numbers I'm seeing on our Department of Health and Human Services COVID dashboard, and it looks like we have a big problem.

[BobbyPhil1781]

Good News Guy is back!! Y'all love me. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-exclusive/exclusive-lilly-covid-19-treatment-could-be-authorized-for-use-as-soon-as-september-chief-scientist-idUSKBN23H35S

"Exclusive: Lilly COVID-19 treatment could be authorized for use as soon as September - chief scientist"

We've all been focusing on vaccines, not potential treatments. Not saying anything will come of it but a major company like this does offer some reason for optimism.