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diehardlionfan

diehardlionfan

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ET80 said:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/

I have a cousin who posted this - it made me feel a little better, but looking for additional feedback from smart folk such as yourself to tell me if this is wishful thinking or not...

I’m curious about the data he’s using to come up with his conclusion.

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JDBrocks

JDBrocks

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ET80 said:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/

I have a cousin who posted this - it made me feel a little better, but looking for additional feedback from smart folk such as yourself to tell me if this is wishful thinking or not...

I read the original LA Times article and I wanted to believe it, but there are far too many references to noisy/messy numbers and incomplete data. I can’t get behind this, especially without seeing his work.

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SwAg

SwAg

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ET80 said:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/

I have a cousin who posted this - it made me feel a little better, but looking for additional feedback from smart folk such as yourself to tell me if this is wishful thinking or not...

Wishful thinking or poor framing.  The issue is that the comparison nations kept meticulous data, while U.S. data is more-or-less merely an indication that it’s worse than we know because we still are hardly testing.  Canada has about 10% of the U.S. population, and has performed approximately the same amount of testing as the U.S. last I checked (four days ago).  It’s going to get worse in the coming weeks.

Also, while I have no specialized intelligence, those who do are certainly planning for the issue to be resolved in June or July at the earliest, not in the coming weeks.  Between all the reassurances, the state and federal government are providing us plenty to “read between the lines” that may seem immaterial.  Whether it’s the calculated corporate funding in the stimulus package (approximately four months worth); requests for states to not report unemployment data until July; or the amount of bipartisan and state balking at the concept of “re-opening the economy” in early April.

Edited by SwAg
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LETSGOBROWNIES

LETSGOBROWNIES

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, SwAg said:

Wishful thinking or poor framing.  The issue is that the comparison nations kept meticulous data, while U.S. data is more-or-less merely an indication that it’s worse than we know because we still are hardly testing.  Canada has about 10% of the U.S. population, and has performed approximately the same amount of testing as the U.S. last I checked (four days ago).  It’s going to get worse in the coming weeks.

Also, while I have no specialized intelligence, those who do are certainly planning for the issue to be resolved in June or July at the earliest, not in the coming weeks.  Between all the reassurances, the state and federal government are providing us plenty to “read between the lines” that may seem immaterial.  Whether it’s the calculated corporate funding in the stimulus package (approximately four months worth); requests for states to not report unemployment data until July; or the amount of bipartisan and state balking at the concept of “re-opening the economy” in early April.

If you just look at China and apply their timeline here it should give a decent idea imo.

It started there in November and they’re coming out of it now.

I’d imagine we will be quicker about it if it’s truly a heat sensitive virus like some of the data has shown, but either way, it’s not gonna be a couple weeks and done imo.

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SwAg

SwAg

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

If you just look at China and apply their timeline here it should give a decent idea imo.

It started there in November and they’re coming out of it now.

I’d imagine we will be quicker about it if it’s truly a heat sensitive virus like some of the data has shown, but either way, it’s not gonna be a couple weeks and done imo.

Not really.  It’s about as close to apples and oranges as we can get in terms of a comparative analysis of a pandemic response.  Even if you put the data issues aside:

The timeline is influenced by the response, and the response is the sum of the measures instituted.  China simply has tools in its toolbox that we lack due to structural differences in our system of government.  China instituted measures that the U.S. is incapable instituting due to civil liberties and states rights, unless Congress invokes the suspension clause.  I mean, the U.S. has not even done all it can to domestically respond, let alone go beyond what it can do, and the trajectory of the nations doing well is because of an abundance of testing, which the U.S. is not doing.  We are more alike Italy or Germany than China on this one.

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LETSGOBROWNIES

LETSGOBROWNIES

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SwAg said:

Not really.  It’s about as close to apples and oranges as we can get in terms of a comparative analysis of a pandemic response.  Even if you put the data issues aside:

The timeline is influenced by the response, and the response is the sum of the measures instituted.  China simply has tools in its toolbox that we lack due to structural differences in our system of government.  China instituted measures that the U.S. is incapable instituting due to civil liberties and states rights, unless Congress invokes the suspension clause.  I mean, the U.S. has not even done all it can to domestically respond, let alone go beyond what it can do, and the trajectory of the nations doing well is because of an abundance of testing, which the U.S. is not doing.  We are more alike Italy than China on this one.

I’m with you on the differences in response, but if this virus is heat susceptible like the flu viruses tend to be we may have a lower infection rate just based on seasonal timing.

Again, that’s a big “if” right now, but it could be a lucky break. It’s purely speculative though right now.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

 

Long story short, I’m with you on the fact this isn’t gonna be done any time soon.

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ET80 said:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/

I have a cousin who posted this - it made me feel a little better, but looking for additional feedback from smart folk such as yourself to tell me if this is wishful thinking or not...

It's going to be radically different for different states. States that are locking down, and treating this serious should have a better outcome. Obviously the extremely dense areas like NYC, LA, Chicago, etc... are going to get his hard early, but if the state governments stick to quarantining, and even raise the stakes a bit, then they should start having a turn around in the next 4 weeks or so.

 

States like Florida, whose governor is an idiot, will get hit extremely hard for a longer duration since they're hesitant to take any extreme measures. If every state locks down, then the entire country could return back to normal by late May or early June, imo.

 

All I have to say is thank god the federal government has no control over the state government in regards to locking down. This virus would linger a lot longer if they did. Unfortunately, they do have control over funds...

 

 

Edited by WizeGuy
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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’m with you on the differences in response, but if this virus is heat susceptible like the flu viruses tend to be we may have a lower infection rate just based on seasonal timing.

Again, that’s a big “if” right now, but it could be a lucky break. It’s purely speculative though right now.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

 

Long story short, I’m with you on the fact this isn’t gonna be done any time soon.

Fingers crossed that it is heat sensitive and also people build immunities if they get it. That'll go a long way in stopping the cycle.

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

If you just look at China and apply their timeline here it should give a decent idea imo.

It started there in November and they’re coming out of it now.

I’d imagine we will be quicker about it if it’s truly a heat sensitive virus like some of the data has shown, but either way, it’s not gonna be a couple weeks and done imo.

China also went into a complete lockdown a few months ago. A lockdown that is way more strict than our lockdowns. We still have governors who a lollygagging around. Luckily, here in NY, Cuomo is taking it seriously, and it's going to save a lot of lives, even if he was late to respond...

 

Also, just for perspective, our first case was reported in Jan, so in reality we're only 2 months behind them. Again, we're handling it worse, imo, so who knows how long it'll linger. On the bright side, a lot of industries are getting involved to build ventilators and PPE, which will save a ton of lives. It's reminiscent of WWII when the US needed tanks, planes, and ships...industries got involved and made a huge difference.

Edited by WizeGuy
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