Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Shanedorf]

30 minutes ago, BullsandBroncos said:

See how they react for a wee bit.

45 days is how long the FDA waits to see any adverse events post-vaccination
 

[SwAg]

10 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Excellent question. You should call your representatives and ask them why we keep cutting funding to the NIH even though it's an overwhelmingly profitable use of public funds.

https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/impact-nih-research/our-society

 

Maybe if you have normal representatives.  My representative referred me to a Bible passage when I called about the lack of federal COVID response.

[Forge]

4 hours ago, SwAg said:

Maybe if you have normal representatives.  My representative referred me to a Bible passage when I called about the lack of federal COVID response.

I'm guessing Deuteronomy 28 27

[BobbyPhil1781]

Now they're saying Pfizer's vaccine is actually 95% effective. 

I liked reading this also:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-biontech-seek-covid-19-vaccine-approval-within-days-trial-n1248079

"The U.S. pharma giant and its German partner said their Phase 3 trial was now complete and that it found the vaccine was 95 percent effective at preventing symptomatic Covid-19 — up from the 90 percent announced last week.

There have been no serious side effects among the 41,135 adults who received two doses, the companies said in a joint statement. The most common reactions were that 3.7 percent of participants experiencing fatigue and 2 percent had a headache, it said."

[ramssuperbowl99]

21 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Now they're saying Pfizer's vaccine is actually 95% effective. 

Since the effectiveness is calculated as (100% - [Total Infections Test Group]/[Total Infections Control Group], it's not surprising that you get some noise with highly efficacious vaccines, since there were so few cases in the test group, the difference between 4 cases and 5 cases could end up changing the final reported efficacy number a little bit.

Just to show what I mean, originally Pfizer reported 5 cases test, 90 cases control for 94.5% efficacy. Let's say 2 of those test cases were noise, a total of 3 cases would be 96.5%, and a total of 7 would be 92%. And we haven't even messed around with the denominator yet (though it's less sensitive than the numerator).

Point being, I wouldn't get bogged down in the exact efficacy result. It's all gravy at this point,

 

Also, from your article:

Quote

Pfizer says it plans to manufacture 50 million doses this year and 1.3 billion in 2021, using facilities in Missouri, Massachusetts, Michigan and Belgium. Its vaccine must be kept at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit.

Looks like they've been reading FF because they took @Shanedorf's idea about manufacturing this themselves to heart.

But 50 million doses EOY is a higher number than the 20 million we had heard earlier. And 1.3B in 2021, with only ~300 million doses for Americans needed to meet demand in total. 

 

Light at the end of the tunnel boys.

Edited November 18, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99

[WizeGuy]

4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Since the effectiveness is calculated as (100% - [Total Infections Test Group]/[Total Infections Control Group], it's not surprising that you get some noise with highly efficacious vaccines, since there were so few cases in the test group, the difference between 4 cases and 5 cases could end up changing the final reported efficacy number a little bit.

Just to show what I mean, originally Pfizer reported 5 cases test, 90 cases control for 94.5% efficacy. Let's say 2 of those test cases were noise, a total of 3 cases would be 96.5%, and a total of 7 would be 92%. And we haven't even messed around with the denominator yet (though it's less sensitive than the numerator).

Point being, I wouldn't get bogged down in the exact efficacy result. It's all gravy at this point,

 

Also, from your article:

Looks like they've been reading FF because they took @Shanedorf's idea about manufacturing this themselves to heart.

But 50 million doses EOY is a higher number than the 20 million we had heard earlier. And 1.3B in 2021, with only ~300 million doses for Americans needed to meet demand in total. 

 

Light at the end of the tunnel boys.

Also, 94% effective thus far in those 65+. Could the results have been any better?

 

Im assuming we'll get a better idea of the true effectiveness as more people are vaccinated, but this does hold some significance, right? 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, WizeGuy said:

Also, 94% effective thus far in those 65+. Could the results have been any better?

 

Im assuming we'll get a better idea of the true effectiveness as more people are vaccinated, but this does hold some significance, right? 

Oh yeah these results are amazing. The idea that we can develop vaccines this effective with just the matching RNA sequence is modern day magic. 

This holds a ton of significance, not just informally, but at a statistically significant level. The Moderna results had a p-value of less than 0.0001 or something like that. I may have dropped a zero. That's the type of statistical significance that gets you published in a physics journal, much FDA approval. What I meant was that when you take the data and you calculate the efficacy rate, there's noise that comes from the smaller sample that you're using since that 40,000 person trial gets reduced to 160 cases split into 2 groups. But overall, 20,000 people got this vaccine. 8 of them got sick in the worst pandemic we've seen. Those results are insanely good.

[WizeGuy]

6 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Oh yeah these results are amazing. The idea that we can develop vaccines this effective with just the matching RNA sequence is modern day magic. 

This holds a ton of significance, not just informally, but at a statistically significant level. The Moderna results had a p-value of less than 0.0001 or something like that. I may have dropped a zero. That's the type of statistical significance that gets you published in a physics journal, much FDA approval. What I meant was that when you take the data and you calculate the efficacy rate, there's noise that comes from the smaller sample that you're using since that 40,000 person trial gets reduced to 160 cases split into 2 groups. But overall, 20,000 people got this vaccine. 8 of them got sick in the worst pandemic we've seen. Those results are insanely good.

I cant wait for my grandmother and me to get vaccinated so she can hug my son. It's been too damn long. Luckily, Im a healthcare worker who interacts with patients and she's 95. Im assuming we'll both be vaccinated within a couple of months.

 

It's going to be very interesting how they distribute the vaccine. Are they going to focus on the most vulnerable or more so on mitigating the spread most effectively? I'd assume the most vulnerable will be first in line, then maybe they start focusing more on where to vaccinate to mitigate the spread...

Edited November 18, 2020 by WizeGuy

[BobbyPhil1781]

44 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Since the effectiveness is calculated as (100% - [Total Infections Test Group]/[Total Infections Control Group], it's not surprising that you get some noise with highly efficacious vaccines, since there were so few cases in the test group, the difference between 4 cases and 5 cases could end up changing the final reported efficacy number a little bit.

Just to show what I mean, originally Pfizer reported 5 cases test, 90 cases control for 94.5% efficacy. Let's say 2 of those test cases were noise, a total of 3 cases would be 96.5%, and a total of 7 would be 92%. And we haven't even messed around with the denominator yet (though it's less sensitive than the numerator).

Point being, I wouldn't get bogged down in the exact efficacy result. It's all gravy at this point,

 

Also, from your article:

Looks like they've been reading FF because they took @Shanedorf's idea about manufacturing this themselves to heart.

But 50 million doses EOY is a higher number than the 20 million we had heard earlier. And 1.3B in 2021, with only ~300 million doses for Americans needed to meet demand in total. 

 

Light at the end of the tunnel boys.

Thanks for explaining that. I assumed there would be some discrepancy in data once further analyzed but just glad it went in the good direction.

I believe there was always talk of 50 million doses but since it is a two dose vaccine, that's only 25 million by year's end unless I'm not understanding their numbers. I've just read that a couple times.

Regardless, this is damn good news and I cannot wait for those to get to the masses. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

Data from Pfizer (copied from r/covid19):

**Summary**

 

* 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group

* Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics; observed efficacy in adults over 65 years of age was over 94%

* Safety data milestone required by U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) has been achieved

* Data demonstrate vaccine was well tolerated across all populations with over 43,000 participants enrolled; no serious safety concerns observed; the only Grade 3 adverse event greater than 2% in frequency was fatigue at 3.8% and headache at 2.0%

* Companies plan to submit within days to the FDA for EUA and share data with other regulatory agencies around the globe

* The companies expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021

* Pfizer is confident in its vast experience, expertise and existing cold-chain infrastructure to distribute the vaccine around the world

Edited November 18, 2020 by BobbyPhil1781

[MWil23]

13 hours ago, SwAg said:

Maybe if you have normal representatives.  My representative referred me to a Bible passage when I called about the lack of federal COVID response.

 

8 hours ago, Forge said:

I'm guessing Deuteronomy 28 27

[ET80]

16 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

45 days is how long the FDA waits to see any adverse events post-vaccination
 

 ...but what if the zombie mutation doesn't take effect until 90 days, huh? What then, huh? 

Keep your fancy lurnin' degrees, I got my trusty Remington 870 that gonna git me thru this. 

😅

[minutemancl]

2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Since the effectiveness is calculated as (100% - [Total Infections Test Group]/[Total Infections Control Group], it's not surprising that you get some noise with highly efficacious vaccines, since there were so few cases in the test group, the difference between 4 cases and 5 cases could end up changing the final reported efficacy number a little bit.

Just to show what I mean, originally Pfizer reported 5 cases test, 90 cases control for 94.5% efficacy. Let's say 2 of those test cases were noise, a total of 3 cases would be 96.5%, and a total of 7 would be 92%. And we haven't even messed around with the denominator yet (though it's less sensitive than the numerator).

Point being, I wouldn't get bogged down in the exact efficacy result. It's all gravy at this point,

 

Also, from your article:

Looks like they've been reading FF because they took @Shanedorf's idea about manufacturing this themselves to heart.

But 50 million doses EOY is a higher number than the 20 million we had heard earlier. And 1.3B in 2021, with only ~300 million doses for Americans needed to meet demand in total. 

 

Light at the end of the tunnel boys.

I'm sure you've said this in this thread previously, but what is your job?

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, minutemancl said:

I'm sure you've said this in this thread previously, but what is your job?

I work in pharma (specifically PK).

[TVScout]

Not free:

A rapid at-home covid-19 test — for under $50 — just got FDA approval

Quote

The California biotechnology company’s single-use home test kit, which it expects to sell for less than $50, requires a prescription from a doctor.  Unlike rapid antigen tests, which experts warn can be unreliable, the kit will test genetic material in a method similar to the laboratory tests that have become the standard for detecting the virus. After swirling the nasal specimen into a solution, home-testers plug the vial into a portable, battery-operated device, which uses a light to indicate the test result within 30 minutes. A positive test result can be generated in as few as 11 minutes. The company said that when it compared its test to one of the most reliable FDA-authorized tests out now, it agreed with positive and negative results 94.1 percent and 98 percent of the time respectively in a study of more than 100 people in California. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/home-test-coronavirus-covid-fda/