MWil23 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, candyman93 said: I was told November 4th Really Jan 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, acowboys62 said: Really Jan 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Deadpulse said: Maybe they meant the election 2024? Playing the long game here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 hours ago, WizeGuy said: Anyone want to take bets on when the US is back to a relatively normal society? (Bars open with no limited capacity, etc... Mass gatherings such as sporting events may take a bit longer, so we'll just keep it to a majority of things not having a capacity limit) I'm going with early June! 5/5 - Cinco de Mayo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 4 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I'll be the stupid optimist, why not: mid April That implies a smooth transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Get the VACCINE !!!!! #mol @TLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 9 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I'll be the stupid optimist, why not: mid April Wow, even the MoL isn't that optimistic July 4 2021 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 12 hours ago, WizeGuy said: Anyone want to take bets on when the US is back to a relatively normal society? (Bars open with no limited capacity, etc... Mass gatherings such as sporting events may take a bit longer, so we'll just keep it to a majority of things not having a capacity limit) I'm going with early June! Jan 21, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, Malfatron said: Jan 21, 2024 January 22, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Counselor said: January 22, 2024 did you just price is right me you bastard lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Malfatron said: did you just price is right me you bastard lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 (edited) 14 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I'll be the stupid optimist, why not: mid April This is quite optimistic. I like your style, but have to ask- how did you come to your prediction? Are you assuming we'll have so many cases naturally that we won't have to vaccinate 70% of the population to mitigate the spread enough to open a majority of society up? Certainly seems that way, but where will that threshold be? I've read that cases are likely 5x-10x higher than what's being reported. The latest report I've seen says 6x as much, so let's take that number. 11.8m cases total x 6= 70.8m 70.8m/328.28m US population= 22.5% of the population has contracted the virus. Damn, at that rate we may be hitting >40% of the population has contracted the virus by the time a vaccine is even available. Of course, this is just taking a shot in the dark, and there will definitely be some overlap with vaccination and those who have been infected. It's going to be a rough winter, geez. Edited November 20, 2020 by WizeGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 18 hours ago, WizeGuy said: Anyone want to take bets on when the US is back to a relatively normal society? (Bars open with no limited capacity, etc... Mass gatherings such as sporting events may take a bit longer, so we'll just keep it to a majority of things not having a capacity limit) I'm going with early June! 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, WizeGuy said: This is quite optimistic. I like your style, but have to ask- how did you come to your prediction? Are you assuming we'll have so many cases naturally that we won't have to vaccinate 70% of the population to mitigate the spread enough to open a majority of society up? Certainly seems that way, but where will that threshold be? I've read that cases are likely 5x-10x higher than what's being reported. The latest report I've seen says 6x as much, so let's take that number. 11.8m cases total x 6= 70.8m 70.8m/328.28m US population= 22.5% of the population has contracted the virus. Damn, at that rate we may be hitting >40% of the population has contracted the virus by the time a vaccine is even available. Of course, this is just taking a shot in the dark, and there will definitely be some overlap with vaccination and those who have been infected. It's going to be a rough winter, geez. There's so many things we don't know, like: How quickly doses are going to be manufactured and distributed How many people are already infected (and how many more will continue to be) What countries get what proportion of the early doses How many people will want the vaccine Stuff outside the scope of this website You could estimate all of these things to come up with a precise guess, but life's pretty weird. There's so much we don't know right now, I just took middle of the year as a starting point, and went a notch more aggressive than that. No darkside wizardry or anything, just betting on people being really sick of this and exceeding expectations because of it. It's probably wildly wrong. Or even if I'm right, I just got lucky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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