Madmike90 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 4 hours ago, WindyCity said: He has opt outs in the contract every year. If he plays well he is going to opt out and cash in. The Bears control nothing. And if he does opt out then cool...still no one is paying Foles $25 million a season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 4 hours ago, WindyCity said: Mitch is 4 years into his career. If he plays well in 2020 that would be 2 full seasons where he played well. Foles has played a decade. You have far more of track record of what he is. Again this isn't about Foles vs. Tru for the next 10 years...this is about Tru being able to play well for every season of the next 10 years...not just every 2nd season...if you believe that is what he will be like then you move on and draft a guy who you feel can play well all the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 There was no reason for Foles to come here and give up all his money if he didn't have some handshake agreement that he would be the starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, topwop1 said: Like you mentioned in another post, I agree that Nagy is going to run out of scapegoats if he starts Foles week 1 and the team continues to struggle on offense. This is why I think Mitch starts at least the 1st quarter of the new season and he will have to play high quality winning football, because otherwise his leash will be extremely short. Side note I would totally take that bet on Mitch being the week 1 starter. That is a very good value bet. If I was to put odds on it, I'd wager you're right about that. The play will be close enough they'll hand the job to Mitch. (Of course, there IS the possibility that being up against Foles will completely crush Mitch mentally...) I'm highly skeptical Mitch would automatically get four games, though. I think if he starts out like he did last season, the leash will be even shorter than that. Edited May 12, 2020 by Heinz D. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 hours ago, topwop1 said: He hasn't been replaced yet. Everything that the Bears have done this offseason is still geared towards giving Mitch every opportunity to hold onto the starting QB job and to prove he is worthy of being given starting QB money beyond 2020. IMO Foles isn't good enough that he completely replaces Mitch week 1. Foles is the ultimate and perfect contingency plan...if there is even a season to be played in 2020. Like you mentioned in another post, I agree that Nagy is going to run out of scapegoats if he starts Foles week 1 and the team continues to struggle on offense. This is why I think Mitch starts at least the 1st quarter of the new season and he will have to play high quality winning football, because otherwise his leash will be extremely short. Side note I would totally take that bet on Mitch being the week 1 starter. That is a very good value bet. The odds in Vegas are heavily favoring Foles to be the week 1 starter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: There was no reason for Foles to come here and give up all his money if he didn't have some handshake agreement that he would be the starter. I don't know. I think he probably sees the possibility of being a long term guy in Chicago, and knew Jacksonville was leaning towards Minshew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 hours ago, beardown3231 said: The odds in Vegas are heavily favoring Foles to be the week 1 starter That doesn't mean much tbh. Are you going to take the favorite in every game you bet on and hope to profit in the long run? If so good luck with that strategy. The odds are like that because the general public believes that the Bears traded for Foles to be the starter right away, so oddsmakers are setting the line accordingly based on the initial action they are receiving from the public, not because they secretly have some insider info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, topwop1 said: Are you going to take the favorite in every game you bet on and hope to profit in the long run? If so good luck with that strategy. That's actually...not that bad of a strategy. But that comparison doesn't apply here. 2 minutes ago, topwop1 said: The odds are like that because the general public believes that the Bears traded for Foles to be the starter right away, so oddsmakers are setting the line accordingly based on the initial action they are receiving from the public, not because they secretly have some insider info. Yeah, Vegas odds, especially at this point, on who ends up starting are worthless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 hours ago, abstract_thought said: There was no reason for Foles to come here and give up all his money if he didn't have some handshake agreement that he would be the starter. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't believe that Foles gave up any guaranteed money he was still owed in the trade to Bears. He just agreed to re-work the contract structure so it makes it more manageable for the Bears under the cap while also giving himself an out if he performs well as the potential starter in 2020 He is still going to get the $22 or whatever million guaranteed with the Bears that was still left owed from his original contract with the Jags. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Heinz D. said: That's actually...not that bad of a strategy. But that comparison doesn't apply here. Yeah, Vegas odds, especially at this point, on who ends up starting are worthless. It is though because for every game you lose betting a big favorite you are paying the vig aka juice, which is how these books make their bread and butter. The oddsmakers aren't stupid. They want people to just bet favorites all the time because those are the suckers that will make them the most money. It doesn't sound like you're much of a betting man, which is by no means an insult, but I'm not kidding when I say that sports betting is not an easy thing to be good and profitable at. If it were then a lot of people would make fortunes from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, topwop1 said: Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't believe that Foles gave up any guaranteed money he was still owed in the trade to Bears. He just agreed to re-work the contract structure so it makes it more manageable for the Bears under the cap while also giving himself an out if he performs well as the potential starter in 2020 He is still going to get the $22 or whatever million guaranteed with the Bears that was still left owed from his original contract with the Jags. He gave up a ton of base salary money in order to get more incentive money and some opt-out clauses. So we have a QB who left money on the table to come here, a head coach who personally recruited the guy, and a QB coach who previously worked with him during a Super Bowl run. Maybe the tea leaves are wrong, but they're reading like Foles will be the starter in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 hours ago, topwop1 said: That doesn't mean much tbh. Are you going to take the favorite in every game you bet on and hope to profit in the long run? If so good luck with that strategy. The odds are like that because the general public believes that the Bears traded for Foles to be the starter right away, so oddsmakers are setting the line accordingly based on the initial action they are receiving from the public, not because they secretly have some insider info. When they're as heavily skewed as they are, it means something imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, Madmike90 said: And if he does opt out then cool...still no one is paying Foles $25 million a season. If he just went 11-5 and won a playoff game? The Bears will likely pay it. Teddy got 23 million and played 5 games. Tannehill got more than that for doing the exact same thing you mentioned I your hypothetical. Edited May 13, 2020 by WindyCity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, abstract_thought said: He gave up a ton of base salary money in order to get more incentive money and some opt-out clauses. So we have a QB who left money on the table to come here, a head coach who personally recruited the guy, and a QB coach who previously worked with him during a Super Bowl run. Maybe the tea leaves are wrong, but they're reading like Foles will be the starter in 2020. You forget... their boss is tied to the other guy. Edited May 13, 2020 by WindyCity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 6 hours ago, abstract_thought said: There was no reason for Foles to come here and give up all his money if he didn't have some handshake agreement that he would be the starter. The reason... to get the hell out of Jacksonville. He is getting all his guaranteed money unless he opts out to sign a bigger deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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