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NFL Season Opener: TNF Texans @ Chiefs GDT


patriotsheatyan

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2 hours ago, ET80 said:

I think it's a bit of both. KC is really good, Texans defense is going to be really bad.

A lot of people (translation: me) tried to downplay the loss of DJ Reader. That was on display in a big way yesterday - both ILBs could not work through traffic, Ross Blacklock was washed out on every snap, PJ Hall only showed up with about three minutes left in the game. JJ Watt looked pretty good at times, but he's not the guy who could be everywhere at once - you can run opposite of him and he can't knife his way into the play anymore. Whitney Mercilius is trash, Brendan Scarlett isn't much better, Charles Omenihu was invisible, Jacob Martin is good for o e good play at most...

Watson didn't look good, sure. But it's hard to look good when you're on the sideline for 2/3 of the game.

Yeah.  This game didn't tell us that much.  Howard is having a sophomore slump, the Texans offense misses having the best receiver in the conference, and the Chiefs are good.  Surprise surprise.

I will say I didn't expect the loss of Reader to be that big a deal.  I guess I underrated him.  I thought with Blacklock (who I loved), Omenihu, and Watt still on that interior, they'd be fine without him, but not having a big run stuffer really let the Chiefs balance their offense a lot more and not entirely depend on Mahomes every play.

It's also week 1 in a shortened offseason, so I'd expect that teams with less continuity to struggle a lot more in the opening weeks than teams that didn't change much.

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

I don't necessarily disagree with this - it is a common scapegoat - but I do think it's not quite as applicable to O'Brien.

This is a misnomer - three of those four years, Jacksonville and Tennessee were trotting out corpses of a team, and Andrew Luck wasn't really available for Indianapolis, so the division in itself was really a race on who can be the least worse - or, who had the best individual player who could simply will their team ahead of everyone else. With guys like JD Clowney, DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt (pre injury) it was the Texans who had that proverbial "best player" to lean on. The last two years, it's been Deshaun Watson - the best QB in a division void of good QB play. You also have to look at the roster of coaches around the AFCS over the years - Ken Whisenhunt, Mike Mularkey, Chuck Pagano, Doug Marrone - BoB is bad, but he is better than these guys by a significant margin. That's not complimentarily, that's just saying these guys were BAD. Jury is still out on Mike Vrabel and Frank Reich insomuch as long term, but we're seeing actual challenges growing in the division - that's probably why people are looking at Tennessee as the next front runner from this division, good team with good coaching (not great on either front - good).

TLDR - it's easy to portray a functional football team in a division with three perpetually dysfunctional teams. Tennessee is evolving, Indy has a QB that isn't replacement level, so the dysfunction that BoB could rely on is quickly leaving the building.

This is the takeaway from tonight. I would agree that this is on the players (or - in the case of the defense - the lack of functional players). Any blame on BoB is a "how did you let it rot on the vine like this" as opposed to a knee jerk take on last night. Belly, Sean Payton, Pete Carroll wouldn't have been able to do much with this - given how bad Watson, the WRs, the OL and the defense looked. The only guy who showed up was David Johnson, ironically enough.

I think the Texans are who they are - a middle of the road team that relies on a franchise QB and a bad division. The franchise QB is here, but the division? That's not here anymore... And I think that'll show itself going forward.

If the Jags do get #1/Lawrence and bring in Eric Bienemy, you'll quickly see the Texans drop to #4 in this division - and probably stay there until BoB is fired AND this defense is revamped from the inside out (not OR on the defense - it HAS to be stripped down and rebuilt). They'll probably have to do this with a strapped cap and no high 2021 draft pick to rely on.

So, this is not a very good road to be on.

Great points, and pretty much completely agree on all accounts. And for entertainment purposes, I hope the rest of the team gets on Watson level sooner rather than later so we can enjoy some Brady/Manning level championship games between Deshaun and Lamar 😎

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19 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Great points, and pretty much completely agree on all accounts. And for entertainment purposes, I hope the rest of the team gets on Watson level sooner rather than later so we can enjoy some Brady/Manning level championship games between Deshaun and Lamar 😎

I think we're in a position where Mahomes/Watson/Jackson could really be this generations' Marino/Kelly/Elway.

Which QB is Elway (elite on all fronts) which QB is Marino (hyper-elite but stuck due to forces beyond their control) and which QB is Kelly (elite with the right talent) remains to be seen... but this image is getting clearer.

Despite that uncertainty, we're in a position to be entertained😃

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One thing I noticed - Zach Fulton is at his expiration date. Fulton was a good player, but he was never great; Players like that have a quick peak of competence, then fall into a hole they simply cannot work out of - I like to think of it as an "expiration date" for these guys. It's not that they're old or injured or anything like that; Simple terms, the game has passed them up already.

Chris Jones can make a lot of players look bad, but it's more than that - Zach Fulton hit his expiration date, and he simply won't be able to be relied on this year. 

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4 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

I didn’t watch the game but am I wrong in assuming Mahomes is starting his MVP campaign already?

He was obviously good but I don't think he was particularly amazing last night. Got the job done and made plays when he needed to but I didn't think he was tearing up the Texans either.

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19 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

I didn’t watch the game but am I wrong in assuming Mahomes is starting his MVP campaign already?

Eh. If last night was the norm, he'll be outperformed by a few guys. He was super efficient, smart with the football, but taking what the Texans gave us meant a lot of running and a lot of short to mid plays, just steadily driving downfield. It was the kind of QB play that wins games, but won't win an MVP. I said in the KC forum GDT after one of the drives, that it was a very Alex Smith Chiefs drive. And the game had a decent amount of that. Very high completion %, excellent TD/INT ratio, but low YPA and YPC.

It won't stay that way though, I'm sure. Teams will shut down CEH. Teams will let Hill break loose. We'll play teams with better defenses that require more Mahomes plays. Same with teams with better offenses.

This was a much better start for the team as a whole than for an MVP campaign, basically. Someone else will come out and throw for 400 yards or 5 TDs or something and eclipse it quickly. At least for now.

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4 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Im not sure if its their actual defense, or if it comes from the fact that other teams offenses are almost always playing catch up throwing the ball to score points.

The cheifs offense makes their defense look better than I think they are. The defense after Q1/Q2 is almost always in a great position to force other teams into over passing and abandoning the run game.

I bet their defense is always gassed though. The offense only needs about 5 plays to score.

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