Packerraymond Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 8 hours ago, incognito_man said: It's literally not the "smart" play. We know because we have data that supports it. They showed the data, their win chance was 94% Go for it and make it +6% win chance Go for it and miss -15% win chance Make a FG 0% change to win chance. So it was a choice between a 100%/79%win chance or stay at 94%. How is there anything conclusive there? I would've gone for the win with that secondary, as I wouldn't have trusted them, but that data doesn't tell you he made the right choice, it's a toss up at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, packfanfb said: Call wasn't the problem. Mattison picked a bad time for maybe the worst run of his career. Cook gets this walking backwards 10 out of 10 times. Decision was fine. Playcalling was fine. Looks like 6 key players executed it fine, 1 didn't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 9 hours ago, incognito_man said: False I think Leader is right that MN should have kicked the FG and made it an 8 point game. Why do you disagree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, squire12 said: Decision was fine. Playcalling was fine. Looks like 6 key players executed it fine, 1 didn't More than 1 didn't execute it. Look at all the green shirts on MN's side of the line. When you have defenders in your backfield on a running play your chances of success are not so hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 There is a 1+ yard wide hole 1 yard to the RB right on a 4th and 1 play. If you want more than that, it is not going to happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 10 hours ago, Leader said: We'll see. They've got Wilson and he's got weapons to chuck it deep to. Packers have Rodgers, a running game and Seattle has a defense that's much worse than the Packers. Bring them to Green Bay! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 8 hours ago, incognito_man said: It's literally not the "smart" play. We know because we have data that supports it. Sometimes data "lies". This time it did … depends who is playing who. Regardless, it cost the Vikings a game because this time, it didn't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, coachbuns said: Sometimes data "lies". This time it did … depends who is playing who. Regardless, it cost the Vikings a game because this time, it didn't work. data never lies lol it's just data 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 52 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: They showed the data, their win chance was 94% Go for it and make it +6% win chance Go for it and miss -15% win chance Make a FG 0% change to win chance. So it was a choice between a 100%/79%win chance or stay at 94%. How is there anything conclusive there? I would've gone for the win with that secondary, as I wouldn't have trusted them, but that data doesn't tell you he made the right choice, it's a toss up at best. league is something like 75% on 4th and 1 So expected outcome is, as shown, advantageous to go for it. It's not significant, but it was the correct (math) decision - in a vacuum. The data (as I said) supports this. Then, look at how Minnesota had been owning the run game all night. They did again, but the back-up RB picked the worst time to have his worst run of the game. I'm no Zimmer fan, but he made the right call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, incognito_man said: league is something like 75% on 4th and 1 So expected outcome is, as shown, advantageous to go for it. It's not significant, but it was the correct (math) decision - in a vacuum. The data (as I said) supports this. Then, look at how Minnesota had been owning the run game all night. They did again, but the back-up RB picked the worst time to have his worst run of the game. I'm no Zimmer fan, but he made the right call. Even if the data says 75% on 4th and 1, you make the FG, you then have at best a 33% chance of allowing the TD in the time allowed. You have a 50%ish chance of allowing the 2 point conversion. You have a 50%ish chance of losing in overtime. Not sure the math sports that call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartacus Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Even if the data says 75% on 4th and 1, you make the FG, you then have at best a 33% chance of allowing the TD in the time allowed. You have a 50%ish chance of allowing the 2 point conversion. You have a 50%ish chance of losing in overtime. Not sure the math sports that call. I don't think that checks out. Minnesota's defense is spotty at best. There offense has been rolling especially on the ground. Seattle's offense is potent and not exactly a team you want to give the ball back to. I think if this was MN teams of a couple years ago I would have kicked the FG but from where they were that day I agree with the call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Spartacus said: I don't think that checks out. Minnesota's defense is spotty at best. There offense has been rolling especially on the ground. Seattle's offense is potent and not exactly a team you want to give the ball back to. I think if this was MN teams of a couple years ago I would have kicked the FG but from where they were that day I agree with the call. Don't really care about the call one way or another … the Vikings lost and shouldn't have considering Seattle didn't convert on a 3rd down play all game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Kick the FG. Go up 8 and make SEA perform to the max. One mistake on their part. Game over. If they succeed - and tie the game - game's not over...dont go home yet.....keep playing. Didnt happen. The MN player (or players) failed (as happens on every single play) and left the game within "you could now lose it" range - and thats what happened - by a hairs breath. Oh well. Cant say I was rooting for MN.....but was rooting for SEA even less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Russell Wilson back at the top of the MVP boards is good, good, good. The Seahawks are used to tight, close games. We aren’t. They are currently team number one I don’t want to play in the playoffs. For everyone saying they don’t have a defense, do you know they’re allowing two more points a game than we are? That’s nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Even if the data says 75% on 4th and 1, you make the FG, you then have at best a 33% chance of allowing the TD in the time allowed. You have a 50%ish chance of allowing the 2 point conversion. You have a 50%ish chance of losing in overtime. Not sure the math sports that call. They showed the math...a few times now. Why is anyone even arguing this lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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