2021 NFL Draft Thread

[turtle28]

8 minutes ago, ovfd55 said:

So if we pull a upset this week we would drop to 25th right?

Yes

[ripsean21]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

Hello Ravens.

Yeah my B but I like Gibson and either of the 3 I mentioned that’s more juice and reviving ability I was foreshadowing the dynamic of Gib and them I think it’s a Just more talent I know that doesn’t always mean results but these top backs in this class are really nice!!!

with Jackson that adds a dynamic to the backs they have that’s how they wear the teams down it’s a lot that’s why Lance and a RB could be a deadly combo. Then injury factor if you add Mond as well you can keep chugging. Having a dynamic run game with one elite WR and a TD maker at TE it def works and I personally hope that’s the direction we head so this defense can always be chasing us because we control the clock and let our DL attack and as the talent gets better at CB and FS  we could look a lot like that honestly we could look scary

Edited January 9, 2021 by ripsean21

[Woz]

@MikeT14, @turtle28, @ovfd55 - with regards to that tweet that Mike sent (there was a whole conversation that I didn't feel like including all the pieces and prats), here's that tweet with the some more information filled in around the actual numbers (the actual names, how they were acquired by the team that originally drafted them, and how they ended up on the team that is actually in the playoffs)

The draft pick number of every starting QB in the NFL playoffs this year:

1       Alex Smith              SFO     natural pick in 2005
            traded from SFO to KAN in 2013 for 2013 2nd (was 2013 2.02 (34) and conditional 2014 4th (became a 2014 2nd (2.24 (56)) due to KAN winning at least 8 games in 2013)
            traded from KAN to WAS in 2018 for 2018 3rd (3.14 (74)) and cornerback Kendall Fuller
1       Jared Goff              LAR     traded for [2016 1.15, 2.12 (43), 2.14 (45), 3.13 (76) + 2017 1st (became 1.05 (5)) and 3rd (became 3.36 (100)) --> CLE FOR 1.01 (1), 4.15 (113), 6.02 (177)]
            still on LAR roster
1       Baker Mayfield          CLE     natural pick in 2018
            still on CLE roster
2       Mitchell Trubisky       CHI     traded for [2017 1.03 (3), 67, 111 and a 2018 3rd (became 3.06 (70)) --> SFO FOR 1.02 (2)]
            stil on CHI roster
4       Philip Rivers           SDG     traded rights of Eli Manning (2004 1.01 (SDG)) FOR Philip Rivers (2004 1.04 (NYG))
            signed as a free agent by IND in 2020
7       Josh Allen              BUF     traded for [2018 1.12 (12), 2.21 (53), 2.24 (56) --> TAM FOR 1.07 (7) and 7.37 (255)]  [NOTE: They traded up from 22 to 12 before the draft]
            still on BUF roster
8       Ryan Tannehill          MIA     natural pick in 2012
            signed as a free agent by TEN in 2019
10      Patrick Mahomes         KAN     traded for [2017 1.27 (27), 3. (91) and 2018 1st (became 1.22 (22)) --> BUF FOR 1.10 (10)]
            still on KAN roster
11      Ben Roethlisberger      PIT     natural pick in 2004
            still on PIT roster
24      Aaron Rodgers           GRB     natural pick in 2005
            still on GRB roster
32      Lamar Jackson           BAL     traded for [2018 2.20 (52), 4.25 (125) and 2019 2nd (became ) --> PHI FOR 1.32 (32) and 4.32 (132)]
            still on BAL roster
---
32      Drew Brees              SDG     natural pick in 2001 (2.01 (32))
            signed as a free agent by NOR in 2006
75      Russell Wilson          SEA     natural pick in 2012 (3.12 (75))
            still on SEA roster
199     Tom Brady               NWE     compensatory pick in 2000 (6.33 (199))
            signed as a free agent by TAM in 2020

So, Brees is one of only three quarterbacks who was available in his prime as a free agent in the modern free agency era (the other two are Daunte Culpepper and Kirk Cousins ... it's possible Dak Prescott could be the fourth). I do not include Ryan Tannehill in that list because he was basically a cast off/reclamation project that hit it BIG for Tennessee. Maybe he should join that list; I'll leave that for an argument for another time.

What stands out to me at least is that out of all those who were drafted in the first round, half were acquired at their natural position and half were traded for (okay 5 and 6, respectively, if you want to be technical about it). If you just consider the QBs on the list of the top ten, it becomes 3 were taken naturally and five were traded for. As I said elsewhere, however, the cost to do the trading (especially from 19) are probably more than Washington can bear without really emptying the draft vault.

[Woz]

On 1/6/2021 at 3:16 AM, e16bball said:

Applying that concept to this draft, the guy that sort of sticks out to me as a possibility to fit that criteria is Trey Lance. Perhaps in a draft with so many high-major stars, teams will turn up their nose at an FCS kid? Maybe that’s the part of his profile that doesn’t really have any bearing on his ability but could cause him to fall further than he otherwise would?

Obviously, I’m reaching a little here, because Carson Wentz went #2 overall from the same school just a few years ago. But I think that’s the sort of thing we’re looking for — something in the profile that would cause teams to write a guy off, despite him being fully capable of being a star.

Imagine you can move anywhere after 19 (you cannot move up). Where do you feel most comfortable taking Lance, keeping mind that there will be something coming back if you trade down? What do you feel would be a fair deal in return for Lance?

Or do you roll the dice at 19 on him and gamble that Smith comes back for one more year as a bridge/redshirt for Lance? Should they fail-to-lose tonight (something that looks incredibly unlikely since Mike Evans is apparently going), would picking naturally at 25 change your thinking?

[Woz]

On 1/8/2021 at 1:28 PM, RSkinGM said:

He needs to go to Indy and his old O C, Frank Reich . 

That makes way too much sense, RSkinGM.

[Woz]

On 1/8/2021 at 3:28 PM, lavar703 said:

A dark horse for this pick is Travis Etienne. 

No, no, a thousand times no. Do NOT waste first round capital on running backs UNLESS you are stocked at all other positions. Washington is not; thus they should not. Don't give me the BPA answer either; the value proposition for running backs means no matter how talented the player is, he is almost NEVER the best player available.

[turtle28]

10 minutes ago, Woz said:

No, no, a thousand times no. Do NOT waste first round capital on running backs UNLESS you are stocked at all other positions. Washington is not; thus they should not. Don't give me the BPA answer either; the value proposition for running backs means no matter how talented the player is, he is almost NEVER the best player available.

While I agree, wouldn’t you say that taking Derrick Henry would’ve been a better selection than Josh Doctson?

[ripsean21]

8 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

While I agree, wouldn’t you say that taking Derrick Henry would’ve been a better selection than Josh Doctson?

Well mike Thomas would have been the right pick but nobody understood he had RB’s throwing him the ball but he was a beast coming out

but Doc was a talent he just didn’t have it mentally

Edited January 10, 2021 by ripsean21

[lavar703]

30 minutes ago, Woz said:

No, no, a thousand times no. Do NOT waste first round capital on running backs UNLESS you are stocked at all other positions. Washington is not; thus they should not. Don't give me the BPA answer either; the value proposition for running backs means no matter how talented the player is, he is almost NEVER the best player available.

Sorry Woz. I don’t agree. 

[turtle28]

12 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

Well mike Thomas would have been the right pick but nobody understood he had RB’s throwing him the ball but he was a beast coming out

but Doc was a talent he just didn’t have it mentally

Doc didn’t have it mentally and he was a lazy route runner. That’s why Jay Gruden wanted Michael Thomas but McCloughan got his way and we drafted Doctson.

[Woz]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

While I agree, wouldn’t you say that taking Derrick Henry would’ve been a better selection than Josh Doctson?

Guessing the individual player is a fool's game. All things being equal, don't take the RB. If you have Ladanian Tomlinson, then you take LT.

[Woz]

2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

Sorry Woz. I don’t agree. 

Most RBs only last their rookie contract. You can find perfectly viable RBs in Day 2 if not Day 3.

[e16bball]

5 hours ago, Woz said:

Imagine you can move anywhere after 19 (you cannot move up). Where do you feel most comfortable taking Lance, keeping mind that there will be something coming back if you trade down? What do you feel would be a fair deal in return for Lance?

Or do you roll the dice at 19 on him and gamble that Smith comes back for one more year as a bridge/redshirt for Lance? Should they fail-to-lose tonight (something that looks incredibly unlikely since Mike Evans is apparently going), would picking naturally at 25 change your thinking?

Cheating, because I’m answering after watching the Heinicke show tonight. Now, my gut instinct is to pass on QB and see what happens next season with Heinicke and Allen. Maybe I feel differently in the light of day — my gut is also telling me that Heinicke is probably Gardner Minshew — but that’s where I am right now.

That said, it’s a hard question to answer because I would only take Lance if I met/interviewed the kid extensively and loved his intangibles. Which, rather disappointingly, I probably won’t get the chance to do. He was just so far away from doing NFL things at NDSU, it’s such a mega-projection with him — there’s such a wide range of possible outcomes when you have a guy who’s that raw with that many tools. And in order to project a guy to grow THAT much as a young NFL player, I’d need to know that he’s off the charts in areas like intelligence, work ethic, leadership, communication, unselfishness, etc. Which I just don’t know about him.

If we assume that I do like him enough to bet the next several years of my franchise on him, then I’d take him at 19. If I liked him enough to take him, I’d actually trade up a bit if he started to fall into the teens (if it was allowed in your hypo). I don’t believe in messing around with franchise QB — too many teams behind us that need a future QB, I wouldn’t feel comfortable sitting at 19 if I’d decided he was the guy™️.

If I didn’t like him enough to bet big on him, I wouldn’t take him before the 3rd or 4th. It’s kind of a binary thing for me — you either love him or you don’t. If I’m willing to wait and see if he makes it to the 2nd, and risk losing him, then I don’t love him enough to use any really valuable picks on. Best I could do at that point is a mid-round flyer on the tools.

[Thaiphoon]

15 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Cheating, because I’m answering after watching the Heinicke show tonight. Now, my gut instinct is to pass on QB and see what happens next season with Heinicke and Allen. Maybe I feel differently in the light of day — my gut is also telling me that Heinicke is probably Gardner Minshew — but that’s where I am right now.

That said, it’s a hard question to answer because I would only take Lance if I met/interviewed the kid extensively and loved his intangibles. Which, rather disappointingly, I probably won’t get the chance to do. He was just so far away from doing NFL things at NDSU, it’s such a mega-projection with him — there’s such a wide range of possible outcomes when you have a guy who’s that raw with that many tools. And in order to project a guy to grow THAT much as a young NFL player, I’d need to know that he’s off the charts in areas like intelligence, work ethic, leadership, communication, unselfishness, etc. Which I just don’t know about him.

If we assume that I do like him enough to bet the next several years of my franchise on him, then I’d take him at 19. If I liked him enough to take him, I’d actually trade up a bit if he started to fall into the teens (if it was allowed in your hypo). I don’t believe in messing around with franchise QB — too many teams behind us that need a future QB, I wouldn’t feel comfortable sitting at 19 if I’d decided he was the guy™️.

If I didn’t like him enough to bet big on him, I wouldn’t take him before the 3rd or 4th. It’s kind of a binary thing for me — you either love him or you don’t. If I’m willing to wait and see if he makes it to the 2nd, and risk losing him, then I don’t love him enough to use any really valuable picks on. Best I could do at that point is a mid-round flyer on the tools.

This right here. At 19, you are either gonna pull the trigger because he's your guy, or if he gives you pause, then you have your answer and you wait to fill the QB position with one of the 3rd rounders we have (maybe the 49er one? Dunno but it will depend on who is there when that pick comes up).

[Slappy Mc]

I believe we trade down in the first and pick up an extra 2nd day pick or a future pick of equal value.