2021 NFL Draft Thread

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

Dallas also tried to do everything in their power not to go with Dak in his rookie year. He just got insanely lucky with injuries to the guys in front of him.

First, Kellen Moore (the primary backup to Romo) broke his leg during the first week of training camp.
Then, Cleveland turned down the Cowboys' offer to trade for Josh McCown.
Then, Dallas named Jameill Showers Romo's backup.
Then, Dallas decided to put Prescott in as the starter for their first preseason game and saw him go 10-12, 139 yds, and 2 TDs. That didn't bump Showers from the #2 until after Week 2.
THEN, he needed Romo to hurt his back again.

And even with all of that, it wasn't clear that Prescott was going to get the starting gig going into the season until right before opening day.

If Washington was to draft Mond, Seattle's situation in 2012 is probably a decent comp from the perspective of the rookie QB being drafted having a chance at getting the starting gig. Seattle had just signed Matt Flynn (who barely had any starting time in Green Bay) and some other random QB I cannot recall (Matt Hasselbeck had just retired). Any drafted QB, even one from the mid rounds, would have a pretty decent shot this season.

 

Great comparison!

[Woz]

4 hours ago, ovfd55 said:

I think it more of Washingtons fans sense of doom of drafting a QB in 1st since we really haven't had a 1st round QB work,in the Super bowl era we've drafted 5 QBs in the 1st

Washington (five): Dwayne Haskins (2019); Robert Griffin III (2012); Jason Campbell (2005); Patrick Ramsey (2002); Heath Shuler (1994).

*thinks to himself* That cannot be right, ovfd55 must mean the free agency era.
*checks DraftHistory.com* ... holy crap. That's insane.

Before Shuler, the last time was 1961 (Norm Snead).

[turtle28]

39 minutes ago, Woz said:

Minor aside: DraftTek no longer does an average of multiple big boards (hasn't in awhile). They have their own board they maintain.

Well damn! The only reason I said that is because you told me that years ago! 😂 

Damn it to Hell Woz! Damn it to Hell!

[Woz]

1 minute ago, turtle28 said:

Well damn! The only reason I said that is because you told me that years ago! 😂 

Damn it to Hell Woz! Damn it to Hell!

And years ago, it was true!

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

QBs used to also be signed for 7-8 year contracts and not have free agency or the ability to change teams easily too.

Different era, different rules.

I agree. Doesn’t make it any better though. They’re still losing valuable developmental time. 

[Woz]

13 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I agree. Doesn’t make it any better though. They’re still losing valuable developmental time. 

Yes, but the NFLPA represents the current members of the NFL, not the prospective members. As such, they decided to fight for shorter contracts so their players could reach free agency (and hopefully, big bucks) faster. The fact that disadvantages younger players at the most complex position is a side effect. They were the sacrifice.

[ripsean21]

23 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

He does have above average arm strength, though it is rarely used to good effect (Tied for 103rd).  The problem is his average accuracy.  An Average Depth of Target of 77th isn't bad--it's better than both Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence--until you match it with a low completion rate (79th) and yardage rates (61st deep, 71st screen).  As you suggest, his delivery time is rather good (46th, behind Jones, Mills, and Lawrence) and his sack avoidance (8.6% under pressure) is downright remarkable.

Numbers are awesome. Listen to the kid talk. Put him on Florida what are his numbers. Like I am def the Mond homer but you put Trask or Jones on A&M and what are they? Because you put Mond on those teams and what are the numbers going to say? Numbers can tell you a lot but I trust my eyes more then just about any analytic. A completion rate is very indicative on the people catching the ball. Where are Monds weapons rated compared to half of these guys ahead of him? Because those numbers aren’t close. You can’t scout stats. You have to scout situations because most players aren’t playing on pro level talented teams.

[turtle28]

14 hours ago, Woz said:

Yes, but the NFLPA represents the current members of the NFL, not the prospective members. As such, they decided to fight for shorter contracts so their players could reach free agency (and hopefully, big bucks) faster. The fact that disadvantages younger players at the most complex position is a side effect. They were the sacrifice.

It was the right thing to do in my mind for both veteran players and for the teams. Having a rookie QB come in w/ a $60 million contract was bad for the team if the player busted. I’d rather that $ go to a QB who’s played 4 or 5 years and proven to be a good starter.

[PARROTHEAD]

13 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

Numbers are awesome. Listen to the kid talk. Put him on Florida what are his numbers. Like I am def the Mond homer but you put Trask or Jones on A&M and what are they? Because you put Mond on those teams and what are the numbers going to say? Numbers can tell you a lot but I trust my eyes more then just about any analytic. A completion rate is very indicative on the people catching the ball. Where are Monds weapons rated compared to half of these guys ahead of him? Because those numbers aren’t close. You can’t scout stats. You have to scout situations because most players aren’t playing on pro level talented teams.

A&M recruited top 5 classes the past couple years.

But I do put a lot of it on his situation. Cause while Im thankful Jimbo helped win me an NC. Hes a terrible play caller. Teams know what he tries to do, when he will do things. 3rd and 12 hes going to run the ball type deal. Under a different system I say his skills would show better. Would have liked to see him in more high risk situations such as 3rd and 19 and actually be allowed to bank on his arm to make the play.

[turtle28]

17 hours ago, Woz said:

*thinks to himself* That cannot be right, ovfd55 must mean the free agency era.
*checks DraftHistory.com* ... holy crap. That's insane.

Before Shuler, the last time was 1961 (Norm Snead).

Insane & sad at the same time 

[ripsean21]

33 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

A&M recruited top 5 classes the past couple years.

But I do put a lot of it on his situation. Cause while Im thankful Jimbo helped win me an NC. Hes a terrible play caller. Teams know what he tries to do, when he will do things. 3rd and 12 hes going to run the ball type deal. Under a different system I say his skills would show better. Would have liked to see him in more high risk situations such as 3rd and 19 and actually be allowed to bank on his arm to make the play.

Yes Jimbo recruits but what guys are we talking about as first rounders in this or next years class outside maybe their TE who’s hurt going into this year are first or second and maybe third rounders? They do have a sophomore RB this season who’s electric who showed out as a freshman against UNC when Spiller went down. And again as your talking about Jimbo’s play calling that just further goes into the numbers I was speaking against. Again he has in some situations when allowed showed the ability.
 

What I see from Mond and take this lightly please I’m not comparing him to Herbert but Herbert was so limited at Oregon to actually highlight his arm anticipation and down field and mid to high range passing because their offensive scheme. But he in very brief moments showed he could and as you compile the tape year to year he flashed what you want to see. As did Mond. Then you factor in the senior bowls and their pro days where they went against what they were asked to do in school to showcase what they have the ability to do you can see theirs so much higher of a celing then what they were demonstrating because their system was based on to win games. 
 

To me it’s the collection of years of tape and just making plays here and there that’s not how plays were even designed and when they broke down and tight window throws and ability to avoid a sack and even hold the ball until the last second and place a catchable pass through windows. Just because the balls weren’t caught doesnt mean he didn’t make a great throw or decision. This is where stats and numbers aren’t translating what they show.

This is why I’m low on Trask. What I see in high pressure moments aren’t good throws or decisions. IE Oklahoma when Pitts or Toney and Grimes were bailing him out making out of worldly plays you see what happens for this guy. No he wasn’t comfortable with his weapons but very few teams will have that level discrempency in the NFL. The level of the defender compared to his weapons will be more closer. That’s where what you see on film with his footwork and high pressure decisions scream trouble. So yes his tape at Florida is great if you watch highlights or take in production. But when you break down NFL scenario plays he will get put into because NFL coordinators aren’t going to not pressure him it’s a cause for concern.

[turtle28]

@ripsean21You can’t take a QBs top 3 weapons away and expect them to play at the same level. I don’t care if it’s Trevor Lawrence. A perfect example is the first half of the 2019-2020 CFP Game OSU vs Clemson. Tee Higgins got a concussion in the first half. After that, Clemson couldn’t throw the ball downfield & they couldn’t block Chase & OSU’s DL, so they started running QB draws & short passes to Travis Etiene. 
 

In the 2019 CFP vs Ohio State & in the 2010 National Championship game, Trevor didn’t play great as a passer, it’s a reason why @HTTRDynasty had his questions about Lawrence.

So, when a QB is missing just his top weapon, let alone his top 3, almost every time they won’t play as well.

Edited April 11, 2021 by turtle28

[ripsean21]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

@ripsean21You can’t take a QBs top 3 weapons away and expect them to play at the same level. I don’t care if it’s Trevor Lawrence. A perfect example is the first half of the 2019-2020 CFP Game OSU vs Clemson. Tee Higgins got a concussion in the first half. After that, Clemson couldn’t throw the ball downfield & they couldn’t block Chase & OSU’s DL, so they started running QB draws & short passes to Travis Etiene. 
 

In the 2019 CFP vs Ohio State & in the 2010 National Championship game, Trevor didn’t play great as a passer, it’s a reason why @HTTRDynasty had his questions about Lawrence.

So, when a QB is missing just his top weapon, let alone his top 3, almost every time they won’t play as well.

I understand that he was missing those weapons. But what I see on tape with those weapons was highlighted by those guys not out there making the plays for him. Pitts is a generational talent. Toney is super explosive. Grimes is a heck of a 3 for college. I get in that game you can’t completely knock him. But the decisions and the throws with pressure and the errant passes are things he did with those 3 on the field.

Did he even win a game without Pitts on the field? Maybe once. I’m not saying there’s not good qualities that he has, he’s just not a guy winning a title without a super team. He is def not a guy I’d ever pay top money too and believe in my chances to win. This guys celiling is Andy Dalton. And that’s if he has an elite level weapon and good OL play. He is a trailor as DJ and Buckey said. And at Florida he had a heck of a truck carrying him is all I’m saying. I believe if and when he see’s a NFL field after 5 or 6 games and DC’s adjust it will be very clear what he is after that. 

And Lawrence I have my questions about his game as well. I think he’s going to be a quality season NFL QB. I think he has things in his game he really will need to grow which aren’t really developed traits that I think will hold him back in the playoffs. His elite level wheels bail him out a lot. But there’s things he really has to improve. If he doesn’t learn how to throw with pressure in his face he’s going to really be limited when the games start to matter.

Edited April 11, 2021 by ripsean21

[4209]

On 4/10/2021 at 11:31 AM, lavar703 said:

I don’t care about draft picks the way other people do. We’ve been building through the draft for the last 7 years or so and we still have nothing at QB. We’re now on the verge of having an elite defense but still no QB. We can always spend the next three years hoping we’re bad enough to get back into the top 10 but rarely is there 5 QBs who are looked at as top 10 picks so these opportunities are few and far between which is why so many of us wanted to lose. So you can make the trade now while this defense is cheap and still young or you can wait 2-3 years when some of these guys need to get paid and have to trade up anyway.
 

In the 7-9 range you aren’t giving up three ones. I’d be totally fine giving up this years first and second, next years first and a third. I think that’s pretty good value for a team in that range and we aren’t totally mortgaging our future because we can always use our two thirds to get back into the second if someone they really like falls. 
 

I just don’t understand what a lot of fans that say not to trade or to wait until next year are expecting to happen? We have one of the leagues best DCs and a coach who never goes under 7-9 for the most part. This is what we are now. This defense is far too talented not to win some games on its own so we’re going to be doing this same song and dance next year. So yes, if they’ve targeted Lance and Turner thinks he’s a franchise guy then go get him. If you miss, who cares? We’re right back to where we would’ve been anyway. Fitzpatrick is a road to nowhere. Same with Allen and most likely Heinecke. 

"I don’t care about draft picks the way other people do".

Okay George Allen the future is now. LO

No but seriously the cost is to high to move from 19 to 4. Atlanta is going to ask for everything including the kitchen sink. So I assume you are all in for doing that with your aforementioned state about draft capital. We have traded up to get  RG lll and missed on other QB in the first rd.  The more I think about this the best position to eliminate other teams being a threat to take QB you have give up 3 # 1's and then some to Atlanta for the 4th pick.

I am not willing to give up three 1^st rd picks for Trey Lance. By the way Trey Lance and Mac Jones are likely to become just the 5th and 6th QBs over the last 25 years drafted in the first round with fewer than 18 college starts now that is not good company. Half of the QB’s taken in the 1^st rd are bust also. No sir not Really  anxious to go blindfolded on the plank and take the plunge.

I mentioned earlier in another post I like our QB. Would prefer to see who falls. May trade up to draft one player but not giving up three 1^st rd picks. May trade down in the first rd to add more pick and may even trade of the 1st to add more picks. In this scenario I want speed/play makers plus this draft is deep in the OL.      

So you see the difference is you don't care about draft capital while I do at least in this scenario and you are high on Lance while I am not. He is okay but not three first rds and more. 

[turtle28]

25 minutes ago, 4209 said:

"I don’t care about draft picks the way other people do".

Okay George Allen the future is now. LO

No but seriously the cost is to high to move from 19 to 4. Atlanta is going to ask for everything including the kitchen sink. So I assume you are all in for doing that with your aforementioned state about draft capital. We have traded up to get  RG lll and missed on other QB in the first rd.  The more I think about this the best position to eliminate other teams being a threat to take QB you have give up 3 # 1's and then some to Atlanta for the 4th pick.

I am not willing to give up three 1^st rd picks for Trey Lance. By the way Trey Lance and Mac Jones are likely to become just the 5th and 6th QBs over the last 25 years drafted in the first round with fewer than 18 college starts now that is not good company. Half of the QB’s taken in the 1^st rd are bust also. No sir not Really  anxious to go blindfolded on the plank and take the plunge.

I mentioned earlier in another post I like our QB. Would prefer to see who falls. May trade up to draft one player but not giving up three 1^st rd picks. May trade down in the first rd to add more pick and may even trade of the 1st to add more picks. In this scenario I want speed/play makers plus this draft is deep in the OL.      

So you see the difference is you don't care about draft capital while I do at least in this scenario and you are high on Lance while I am not. He is okay but not three first rds and more. 

Draft picks matter but acquiring tons of draft picks doesn’t necessarily mean the team is going to get a lot better. The Cleveland Browns played money ball for years & passed on better prospects for what seemed like all of last decade, it didn’t work. They passed on Julio Jones, they passed on good QBs. They Once they went 1-15 & the next year 0-16.

I see only one way this franchise gets a top QB anytime soon, and that’s through a trade. They’re either going to have to trade up for a Top QB or trade for a top QB.

They screwed up their chance to get a top QB by winning 7 games & the division last year. Despite spotty QB play all year they s  did enough on D to be mediocre. When you’re mediocre with mediocre QB play most likely at best you’re a team that gets to the playoffs but doesn’t ever contend for a championship.

We’ve become that team. We’re back to what we were when we had Sean Taylor & Lavar on D while on O we had a good running game but a very conservative passing game that didn’t scare anyone. 10-7, 10-6, 6-10 & 9-7 were out records under Gibbs. Not exactly a Super Bowl contender mostly bc of our QB play. I fear we’re heading for the same type of team under Rivera unless we trade up for a QB either this year or next. 

Edited April 11, 2021 by turtle28